How many are you counting on a house price crash?

[haroldshand]

1 hour ago, Axeman123 said:

I will take the opposite side to you on that.

People aren't coming here for the climate or culture. Most of the dingy wankers etc are single young men, who would qualify for bugger all in benefits in terms of cash that they could send home. Migrants are coming for the shadow economy, and in a recession that will shrink. Even the families that get every benefit going would rather be in bongo-bongo if it wasn't for the top-up income available on the side.

I think you will find that's not quite true, most of the dross coming here you will find is legal and using the many abused loopholes to do ,

Personally I  have reached a point where even if property prices fell 60% plus I am not sure this country is now savable.

[Axeman123]

1 minute ago, haroldshand said:

I think you will find that's not quite true, most of the dross coming here you will find is legal and using the many abused loopholes to do ,

Personally I  have reached a point where even if property prices fell 60% plus I am not sure this country is now savable.

As I understand it to be able to come here on a visa entitled to work someones needs to be earning 30K. Obviously they may be earning that doing a job that otherwise might command 50k, and thereby hollowing out the country, but I still think benefits aren't as big a deal as the shadow economy. Perhaps benefits subsidise the shadow economy to some extent, by making it viable to work for even less to illicitly top up benefits.

I personally think lifestyles will radically change in a decent recession (none of your 2008 bollocks mind, real hardship) and paying someone to deliver fried chicken to your house or handwash your car will seem very odd to the average person.

[Micky Roberts]

With reference to earlier posts the housing market will be held up by mass immigration.

1. 1m+ more bodies per year means that demand for accommodation exceeds supply indefinitely 
2. In urban areas more people will be crammed into smaller spaces.
   1. HMOs and beds in sheds proliferate
   2. Flat shares become room shares
3. Rents per head fall or stagnate but rental income per unit (more heads) increases underpinning valuations in cities
4. Flight to the country to escape multiculturalism accelerates forcing up the prices of rural properties
5. Government props continue to help 'hard working families' who are priced out
6. LHA provides a floor on rentals on any remaining areas where demand and supply are matched.

We are on the road to hell.

 

[haroldshand]

12 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

As I understand it to be able to come here on a visa entitled to work someones needs to be earning 30K. Obviously they may be earning that doing a job that otherwise might command 50k, and thereby hollowing out the country, but I still think benefits aren't as big a deal as the shadow economy. Perhaps benefits subsidise the shadow economy to some extent, by making it viable to work for even less to illicitly top up benefits.

I personally think lifestyles will radically change in a decent recession (none of your 2008 bollocks mind, real hardship) and paying someone to deliver fried chicken to your house or handwash your car will seem very odd to the average person.

If someone claimed today that the UK population is really close to 100 million it would not surprise me and anyone with their eyes open and live in the City estates who  could take you by the hand and guide you to the endless black economies, it's like nobody no longer cares and turn a blind eye.

I have heard some wonderful stories about what goes on in Peterborough and the token raids that sometimes happen for it all to start again next day

[Axeman123]

1 minute ago, haroldshand said:

If someone claimed today that the UK population is really close to 100 million it would not surprise me and anyone with their eyes open and live in the City estates who  could take you by the hand and guide you to the endless black economies, it's like nobody no longer cares and turn a blind eye.

I have heard some wonderful stories about what goes on in Peterborough and the token raids that sometimes happen for it all to start again next day

The thing is, all those shadow economies seem to be focussed on discretionary spend. Eating and drinking out, then getting driven home after, or getting food/drugs delivered to your door instead. Brothels and escorts. I could imagine spending on all those things absolutely cratering compared to today.

We have had a false wealth effect for a while. Assets pumped to replace wages, wage arbitrage to import Chinese manufactured goods, and wage arbitrage to import a servant class. All to let people live out their fantasies of being rich. I see it all as an inter-linked thing, that is ending.

[Sugarlips]

56 minutes ago, haroldshand said:

I am not sure this country is now savable.

Which then begs the question where is? And over what time Horizon? Are you making plans for yourself or your children?

[Joxer]

44 minutes ago, Micky Roberts said:

With reference to earlier posts the housing market will be held up by mass immigration.

1. 1m+ more bodies per year means that demand for accommodation exceeds supply indefinitely 
2. In urban areas more people will be crammed into smaller spaces.
   1. HMOs and beds in sheds proliferate
   2. Flat shares become room shares
3. Rents per head fall or stagnate but rental income per unit (more heads) increases underpinning valuations in cities
4. Flight to the country to escape multiculturalism accelerates forcing up the prices of rural properties
5. Government props continue to help 'hard working families' who are priced out
6. LHA provides a floor on rentals on any remaining areas where demand and supply are matched.

We are on the road to hell.

 

Exactly what has happened in ireland since the 2008 crash. Rents are astronomical there

[tank]

59 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

As I understand it to be able to come here on a visa entitled to work someones needs to be earning 30K. Obviously they may be earning that doing a job that otherwise might command 50k, and thereby hollowing out the country, but I still think benefits aren't as big a deal as the shadow economy. Perhaps benefits subsidise the shadow economy to some extent, by making it viable to work for even less to illicitly top up benefits.

I personally think lifestyles will radically change in a decent recession (none of your 2008 bollocks mind, real hardship) and paying someone to deliver fried chicken to your house or handwash your car will seem very odd to the average person.

Here's what goes on in Australia under a system the Tories have copied.

www.abc.net.au/news/2022-09-13/skilled-migrant-workers-sponsorship-visa-exploitation/101430186

The UK equivalent would happen as follows. 'Skilled worker' Abdul gets 'sponsored' on a £30K wage, rocks up, works for peanuts, lives with 15 others in a HMO or shed while the ring master pockets his supposed income tax free. The sponsor will be a UK citizen from the same background who will own the accommodation and a string of money laundering fronts. 

Then there's the student visa scam. Sanjeev from Mumbai gets his UK student visa and this allows him to work for x years in the UK. He supposedly 'studies' some nonedescript 'business' course at a former poly or similar but is essentially here to work as an indentured slave and pay off his family's debt to a migration agent. The aim is to get a permanent right to stay and bring the family over.

Again here's the template from Australia. www.macrobusiness.com.au/2022/09/australias-student-visa-system-ruthlessly-rorted

[Axeman123]

15 minutes ago, tank said:

The UK equivalent would happen as follows. 'Skilled worker' Abdul gets 'sponsored' on a £30K wage, rocks up, works for peanuts, lives with 15 others in a HMO or shed while the ring master pockets his supposed income tax free. The sponsor will be a UK citizen from the same background who will own the accommodation and a string of money laundering fronts.

Doesn't that all hang on Abdul producing £30k worth of work, even if everyone else involved in bringing him over gets to pocket it instead of him? Not an attack, but it seems like a big hole in the arguement.

Good of you to back up your stuff with links though.

[King Penda]

1 hour ago, Axeman123 said:

As I understand it to be able to come here on a visa entitled to work someones needs to be earning 30K. Obviously they may be earning that doing a job that otherwise might command 50k, and thereby hollowing out the country, but I still think benefits aren't as big a deal as the shadow economy. Perhaps benefits subsidise the shadow economy to some extent, by making it viable to work for even less to illicitly top up benefits.

I personally think lifestyles will radically change in a decent recession (none of your 2008 bollocks mind, real hardship) and paying someone to deliver fried chicken to your house or handwash your car will seem very odd to the average person.

The girls do a care job and the family or friend give them a bullshit job to hit the 30k .I know because 2 Pakistani girls I worked with were doing just that they don’t mind paying a bit of extra tax to get the husband in oh the girl gets no cash they it’s a sham one even got badged so she could pretend to work for her brothers security firm

[Bobthebuilder]

2 hours ago, haroldshand said:

I was posting on TOS just a few years back now and was convinced the housing market was f****d(I still do) , but then started looking at other data and then coming to the conclusion that the housing could still hold up or even better.

So I started to post about that along with a few others and does not take long to realise that TOS does not like it I then got a few private message to jump ship with a few other rebels, that's it

I have not posted on TOS since 2012, they banned me for buying a house.

[King Penda]

1 minute ago, Bobthebuilder said:

I have not posted on TOS since 2012, they banned me for buying a house.

And me , I was trolling by telling them that .I would have got banned in October 2012 about 2/3 weeks after I bought

[tank]

54 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

Doesn't that all hang on Abdul producing £30k worth of work, even if everyone else involved in bringing him over gets to pocket it instead of him? Not an attack, but it seems like a big hole in the arguement.

Not really because Abdul is a low level indentured slave. There are millions of his kind in Pakistan alone. Even if every 'worker' the ring master brings  makes him just ~£200 a week extra, he's still well ahead. Times that by 10 or more and it quickly becomes quite lucrative.  

Abdul's 'productivity' can be measured against the minimum wage, not the ficticious £30K. He'll probably get bunged £50 a week cash by the ring master in return for 50 hours standing around in some money laundering shopfront or delivering shit, plus a mattress on floor in one of the boss's BTLs.

That's more than he'll ever see in Pakistan and his family will be relying on him to get the golden ticket that is a UK passport one day. There's also a very good chance they'll owe a debt to the ring master's local family for facilitating the visa, so Abdul may not even be getting £50 a week. 

[Democorruptcy]

4 hours ago, tank said:

Most of the 1.2 million new arrivals will be renting. Next year's 1.2m will be renting too and so on.

Rents = GDP. 

This level of population growth is the new norm for the next few years before they ramp it again.

It was 150K a year net in 1999, then over 300K net following the EU enlargement in 2005, then ramped again to over 500K under the Tories by 2012-14 and now over 1 million net under the same mob in 2022. Roughly doubling every 6-8 years. 

The UK rentier economy needs more warm bodies like a junkie needs more bags. There is no point applying a 1970s macro roadmap to it like stocks, nor comparing it to other periods when immigration was lower. The UK housing market is heading in one direction long term because it is the UK economy. If a crash occurred, we'd be experiencing full on depression level conditions akin to the 1930s. 

1.2m visas being granted is not the same as 1.2m immigrants moving here permanently. A lot of visas are temporary and long term immigration is always a lot less. Then you have to knock of people who left the UK (High house prices might be a reason to leave) for a net migration figure. Your net figures are nowhere near ONS figures, got a link or are they made up?

This link has a lot of stats and says the next ONS update is due in November.

https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/long-term-international-migration-flows-to-and-from-the-uk/

 

 

[tank]

48 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

1.2m visas being granted is not the same as 1.2m immigrants moving here permanently. A lot of visas are temporary and long term immigration is always a lot less. Then you have to knock of people who left the UK (High house prices might be a reason to leave) for a net migration figure. Your net figures are nowhere near ONS figures, got a link or are they made up?

This link has a lot of stats and says the next ONS update is due in November.

https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/long-term-international-migration-flows-to-and-from-the-uk/

 

 

The net intake over the past year would be close to 1 million going off the widely reported number of visas issued and typical emigration.

It's well known that over 90% of those who arrive in the UK on temporary visas never leave. They either get a right to stay in some way or they disappear joining the millions of illegals currently in the UK.  

The government and the ONS will deliberately fudge the figures, but it is pretty obvious what they're up to here by doubling the number of visas issued. This all comes back to Harold's topic. Maintaining high property values via monetary policy, net immigration, housing benefit and other props is effectively the UK economy. 

[Democorruptcy]

1 hour ago, tank said:

The net intake over the past year would be close to 1 million going off the widely reported number of visas issued and typical emigration.

It's well known that over 90% of those who arrive in the UK on temporary visas never leave. They either get a right to stay in some way or they disappear joining the millions of illegals currently in the UK.  

The government and the ONS will deliberately fudge the figures, but it is pretty obvious what they're up to here by doubling the number of visas issued. This all comes back to Harold's topic. Maintaining high property values via monetary policy, net immigration, housing benefit and other props is effectively the UK economy. 

Right so you don't have any links but we should just believe you instead of the ONS. Thanks for your time.

[With a crooked smile]

4 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

I personally think lifestyles will radically change in a decent recession (none of your 2008 bollocks mind, real hardship) and paying someone to deliver fried chicken to your house or handwash your car will seem very odd to the average person.

An interesting point of view. If correct it will be interesting to see how things work out. Many families have 2 people working and often doing reasonable commutes. When the wife and I were in this position we employed quite a few people, a cleaner, a gardener always used a car wash, had weekly takeaways as to tired to cook, wife had a PA two days a week (she did loads of tasks not just office stuff) plus a dog walker.

I'm not sure how a busy couple in an urban area will get on if both working fulltime.

[Axeman123]

3 minutes ago, With a crooked smile said:

An interesting point of view. If correct it will be interesting to see how things work out. Many families have 2 people working and often doing reasonable commutes. When the wife and I were in this position we employed quite a few people, a cleaner, a gardener always used a car wash, had weekly takeaways as to tired to cook, wife had a PA two days a week (she did loads of tasks not just office stuff) plus a dog walker.

I'm not sure how a busy couple in an urban area will get on if both working fulltime.

I am guessing you were both on well above average wages? I am not saying all hired help or servant type jobs will end, just that the majority of people will no longer have the option.

[Frank Hovis]

3 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

The thing is, all those shadow economies seem to be focussed on discretionary spend. Eating and drinking out, then getting driven home after, or getting food/drugs delivered to your door instead. Brothels and escorts. I could imagine spending on all those things absolutely cratering compared to today.

We have had a false wealth effect for a while. Assets pumped to replace wages, wage arbitrage to import Chinese manufactured goods, and wage arbitrage to import a servant class. All to let people live out their fantasies of being rich. I see it all as an inter-linked thing, that is ending.

 

Yes, that's my view.

If people can't afford nights out then they aren't going to be using unregistered minicabs, buying kebabs from child groomers, or drugs from county lines dealers.

Most of the illegal spend is entirely discretionary and as rents and energy bills have already shot up there is far less easy money sloshing about.

If you are a genuine asylum seeker, and there must be one surely,  then you receive £40.85 per week on top of free accommodation.

https://www.gov.uk/asylum-support/what-youll-get

 

Nobody is going to come here to live on that.  It's just a line of free money on top of all of the money they can make from criminality.

[Funn3r]

5 hours ago, tank said:

The 1.2 million I refer to are perfectly legal economic migrants with visas issued by the Home Office in the last year alone.

 

How does it work in UK? From experience with the US system you don't get "a visa" and job done. They have loads of different visas and it's a progression through their bureacracy until you finally get to US citizenship, assuming you want to go all the way on the journey.

What did these 1.2 million actually get? What type of visa and what does it do for them?

[With a crooked smile]

39 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

I am guessing you were both on well above average wages? I am not saying all hired help or servant type jobs will end, just that the majority of people will no longer have the option.

I wouldn't say we were rich, my stepson didn't go to a private school (but did have paid for tutoring after school). 

But yes I guess fairly well off. I'd never ever refer to anyone that helped us as a servant tho! I do agree with you that demand for hired in help will fall but I'm notnsure what that looks like when two people are probably working to the max.

[With a crooked smile]

30 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

 

Yes, that's my view.

If people can't afford nights out then they aren't going to be using unregistered minicabs, buying kebabs from child groomers, or drugs from county lines dealers.

Most of the illegal spend is entirely discretionary and as rents and energy bills have already shot up there is far less easy money sloshing about.

If you are a genuine asylum seeker, and there must be one surely,  then you receive £40.85 per week on top of free accommodation.

https://www.gov.uk/asylum-support/what-youll-get

 

Nobody is going to come here to live on that.  It's just a line of free money on top of all of the money they can make from criminality.

Indeed speaking to a friend who lived in Galway until the economic crash around 2009. He's English and could claim around 180 euros a week unemployment you only had to sign on once a month and they didn't hassle you to get a job. There was loads of cash in hand construction work. Lots of South Americans came over all eventually became legal either through marriage or an amnesty that the Irish gave everyone. 

Only reporting what I was told but it sounds pretty appealing to illegal immigrants. 

What it was like after 09 I don't know my mate came back to the UK.

[Axeman123]

34 minutes ago, With a crooked smile said:

I'd never ever refer to anyone that helped us as a servant tho! I do agree with you that demand for hired in help will fall but I'm notnsure what that looks like when two people are probably working to the max.

I was just clumsily using that as shorthand for jobs that would traditionally have been done by servants, such as chaufeur/maid/chef/valet etc. Ordinary Joes having those things done for them is a very odd anomaly, historically speaking.

What does it look like? Misery, of course. The solution to everything, according to our leaders that will be excused by wealth etc.

[haroldshand]

6 hours ago, King Penda said:

And me , I was trolling by telling them that .I would have got banned in October 2012 about 2/3 weeks after I bought

I was getting on really well with many of them and then one day I had questions, it went down hill from there

[spygirl]

21 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

You'd be a fool to ever put your eggs in one basket 

 

Most of the country has already though. 

 

Crash, no crash, if you follow DB you'll know he thinks the £ is toast and moving forward housing will be hammered 

 

All those people with 1 egg in 1 basket are screwed. 

 

 

The egg in a basket thing fucks me off. Constantly.

Ooh spy, why dont you buy a second home, holiday home, btl?

Until I've got well north of 1m in assets outside OO and pension Id not consider  any more property.

Family fuckwits with *no* pension bought a 2nd house when they got 250k inheritance.

Mental.