How many are you counting on a house price crash?

[One percent]

8 hours ago, spunko said:

Another case of Brit stupidly commits crime in one of the world's shitholes where he's regarded as a second class citizen, gets angry when he cannot pay the penalty fine and has to go to prison. 

I would think twice about even a flight that has a stopover there. I’d probably pay a significant amount more to avoid that. 

[With a crooked smile]

17 minutes ago, One percent said:

I would think twice about even a flight that has a stopover there. I’d probably pay a significant amount more to avoid that. 

Totally agree. I went to Nepal a few years back. There were a couple of options. Arrive in India at 2300 at night and get a connection in the morning.  Didn't fancy that as I wasn't sure if you could stay overnight in the airport and hadn't been to India before.

I chose to fly via Doha (Qatar). Made sure I had zero over the counter medication on me. I was going to Annapurna so needed to have altitude medication on me which is prescription only in UK. Decided to buy it in Nepal from a pharmacy you don't seem to need prescriptions there. Binned all the meds I bought before getting the flight back (and triple checked my bag before flying out).

[King Penda]

3 hours ago, With a crooked smile said:

That's hilarious you view the Argentine passport as a high value asset more than a 500k house.

Have you looked at how unspectacular that passport actually is? My brother in law (also born in Bolivia) who lives in Italy now looked at getting an Argentine passport and decided it wouldn't benefit him in anyway. 

I'm sorry but you have a passport that doesn't unlock doors for a country with a walk in immigration policy.

 

Marry a nurse get one from abroad probable cost 5k you get their passport. They get yours (I think ) you can go any country in the world 

[With a crooked smile]

36 minutes ago, King Penda said:

Marry a nurse get one from abroad probable cost 5k you get their passport. They get yours (I think ) you can go any country in the world 

My lot from school seemed very well travelled. Its interesting for all the noise about freedom of movemt the EU has been the second least popular destination to live and work. 

It seems to me only limited nos went to South America or the EU a reasonable number went to the Middle East. Quite a lot went to SE Asia and the majority that left the UK went to the white Common Wealth, Canada, NZ and Oz.

Visas don't seem to have been an issue. Many people seem to have found a country they like and then got a job that fits with that country sometimes ot can be a bit bizarre.  I know people working with horses in NZ because those skills are in demand there. Freedom of movement to the EU seems very over rated. That said my brother in law who has fuck all skills managed to get into Italy (he's a musician) on the basis he had property there. 

[With a crooked smile]

43 minutes ago, King Penda said:

Marry a nurse get one from abroad probable cost 5k you get their passport. They get yours (I think ) you can go any country in the world 

I also knew someone early 2000s that got out of IT and trained as a bus driver. 6 months later he got a visa for Canada (they needed bus drivers). According to linkedin he's back working in IT in Canada now.

[AWW]

4 hours ago, Milfhunter2021 said:

Whilst you are searched at Heathrow airport , I go straight through Immigration and passport control , You get on your Ryanair.... I get on my German fully paid for Private jet. 

I have Millions in assets and passports are my most valued. 

You're not alone on here in having assets in seven figures, but you are alone in sounding like you're selling an FX trading course on YouTube, you berk.

[Wight Flight]

1 hour ago, AWW said:

You're not alone on here in having assets in seven figures, but you are alone in sounding like you're selling an FX trading course on YouTube, you berk.

Can we include the numbers after the decimal point?

[Frank Hovis]

15 hours ago, With a crooked smile said:

Freedom of movement to the EU seems very over rated.

 

Now this was obvious from the start because most continentals start to learn English, as being the world language, from an early age which then enabled them to come here and get a job under EU freedom of movement.

A Brit however, with the choice of twenty or so languages to learn and no obvious one to choose, might do a smattering of French, German or Spanish which won't be good enough to get a decent job in any of those countries.

It was always going to be one way traffic for working age people; though going in the other direction for retirees.

The obvious overseas destination for Brits has always been English-speaking countries.

Or, and this is something that I would destest if I was Spanish, English-speaking enclaves in Spain.

[Don Coglione]

17 hours ago, With a crooked smile said:

Totally agree. I went to Nepal a few years back. There were a couple of options. Arrive in India at 2300 at night and get a connection in the morning.  Didn't fancy that as I wasn't sure if you could stay overnight in the airport and hadn't been to India before.

I chose to fly via Doha (Qatar). Made sure I had zero over the counter medication on me. I was going to Annapurna so needed to have altitude medication on me which is prescription only in UK. Decided to buy it in Nepal from a pharmacy you don't seem to need prescriptions there. Binned all the meds I bought before getting the flight back (and triple checked my bag before flying out).

Medication for altitude sickness? You big fanny! Surely, with a Bolivian wife, you would simply have taken a big stash of coca leaves...

[With a crooked smile]

1 hour ago, Don Coglione said:

Medication for altitude sickness? You big fanny! Surely, with a Bolivian wife, you would simply have taken a big stash of coca leaves...

It's for an emergency,  I did end up on the same bus with an American heroin addict who was having a break down that wasn't fun.

[A_P]

On 16/09/2022 at 11:06, One percent said:

I would think twice about even a flight that has a stopover there. I’d probably pay a significant amount more to avoid that. 

I’m not sure why people are so keen to spend more time at airports and on planes than they have to 🤪

[No One]

On 12/09/2022 at 22:28, haroldshand said:

Be honest.

I was lured over here from TOS because a handful of DOSBOD members picked up on my changing views and cynical attitude towards what I believe became an echo chamber and cult and taled me over to here. It's clear a few would welcome one on here and I think it would be more beneficial  for the country as a whole, but I also find it a dangerous hope where you put all your eggs in the same basket like I am starting to suspect with some.

I am hoping for one but I've seen it all. I'll remain cynical for now until I actually see it, and keeping an eye for signs of things changing.

My two indicators are volumes ramping up which I've begun tracking and the cost of mortgage rates.

[No One]

On 13/09/2022 at 01:30, HousePriceMania said:

Lured as in...came here because everyone left TOS and he felt lonely 

Hell, the trolls on tos were proved to be right...till now, but everything poeople said would happen about inflation, collapse of the £, pensions destroyed etc etc etc, is coming true.

Count, not everyone that disagreed on TOS was a troll, an EA or a LL. There where people looking at the fundamentals (fundamentals like ultralow IR and interventions by the Cameron Government ,HTB)  which indicated the crash had been reversed.

[No One]

On 13/09/2022 at 09:27, Axeman123 said:

The thing is, all those shadow economies seem to be focussed on discretionary spend. Eating and drinking out, then getting driven home after, or getting food/drugs delivered to your door instead. Brothels and escorts. I could imagine spending on all those things absolutely cratering compared to today.

We have had a false wealth effect for a while. Assets pumped to replace wages, wage arbitrage to import Chinese manufactured goods, and wage arbitrage to import a servant class. All to let people live out their fantasies of being rich. I see it all as an inter-linked thing, that is ending.

I was watching a Doomberg podcast with other macro people and he said something similar. The three major anti inflation factors of the last decade have now gone.

[Chewing Grass]

This is the only graph that matters, it should have blown in 2008 and has to get back to 5% minimum.

The West has been living off cheap credit and commie slave labour for 30 years.

Before 1990 you would have struggled to find anything made in China to buy now wankers will pay a months salary for an 'American Product' the iphone made entirely in China.

Exports, up 3500% since the year Orwell.

[haroldshand]

15 hours ago, No One said:

I am hoping for one but I've seen it all. I'll remain cynical for now until I actually see it, and keeping an eye for signs of things changing.

My two indicators are volumes ramping up which I've begun tracking and the cost of mortgage rates.

I am exactly the same, I have lost count over several years the number of times I have had a chart pushed into my face with a "this proves it beyond doubt why won't you listen" debate, rant and sometimes even aggressive .

It will happen at some point that's for sure but many will be old men or even dead before it does happen, I have known people wait decades. I would suggest these people do two things, one would be stop looking at the world as it should be and look at what it is and then secondly once you have seen clearly how the world is then make a life for yourself with the best of what's available. 

OK to wait a very short period for a very certain incoming property crash is fine, but they are as good as impossible to predict and as much as I can see negative data for house prices coming I also concerned with a rapid rising UK population.

This is not a done deal just yet

[Frank Hovis]

20 minutes ago, haroldshand said:

OK to wait a very short period for a very certain incoming property crash is fine

 

I can only go from the one I experienced but the crash in London took eight years to hit the bottom, 1988 to 1996, so even if it isn't long until a crash starts it is likely to be years until it becomes time to buy.

The early years of that crash were like the mini-correction in 2008.

People would not sell for what they regarded as a loss unless they absolutely had to do so. Instead they either took their house off the market or rented it out and most people were able to sustain both this position and their refusal to accept that values had materially fallen for several years.

I rented a flat off one such, your typical accidental landlord, until they were pretty much pleading with me to buy at something like two thirds the price it had been when I had started to rent it because they had moved city and they were renting as they needed the flat to sell so that they could buy somewhere.  When I began to rent it it was already several years after 1988, 1993 maybe.

I did buy it then because it was a correct valuation, I didn't want to move, and the mortgage was literally half my rent. It happened to be the best time, 1996, but that was pure fluke as I wasn't trying to time the market as there were no indicators that prices were going to start rising even then.

I actually bought with the expectation that they would keep falling but I was saving so much compared to my previous rent, £300 a month less, that I didn't mind as that would offset further falls.

 

The only major new factor that I can see which might make it play out more quickly this time is the high number of amateur BtLers who will be in a position to dump their portfolios as the falls start without losing their homes.

Though these tend to be the cheaper accommodation which has the higher yield meaning that there becomes a two tier fall with cheaper housing crashing rapidly but nicer, owner-occupied, housing holding its value for several years for the same reasons as in 1988 - 1996.

[haroldshand]

10 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

 

I can only go from the one I experienced but the crash in London took eight years to hit the bottom, 1988 to 1996, so even if it isn't long until a crash starts it is likely to be years until it becomes time to buy.

The early years of that crash were like the mini-correction in 2008.

People would not sell for what they regarded as a loss unless they absolutely had to do so. Instead they either took their house off the market or rented it out and most people were able to sustain both this position and their refusal to accept that values had materially fallen for several years.

I rented a flat off one such, your typical accidental landlord, until they were pretty much pleading with me to buy at something like two thirds the price it had been when I had started to rent it because they had moved city and they were renting as they needed the flat to sell so that they could buy somewhere.  When I began to rent it it was already several years after 1988, 1993 maybe.

I did buy it then because it was a correct valuation, I didn't want to move, and the mortgage was literally half my rent. It happened to be the best time, 1996, but that was pure fluke as I wasn't trying to time the market as there were no indicators that prices were going to start rising even then.

I actually bought with the expectation that they would keep falling but I was saving so much compared to my previous rent, £300 a month less, that I didn't mind as that would offset further falls.

 

The only major new factor that I can see which might make it play out more quickly this time is the high number of amateur BtLers who will be in a position to dump their portfolios as the falls start without losing their homes.

Though these tend to be the cheaper accommodation which has the higher yield meaning that there becomes a two tier fall with cheaper housing crashing rapidly but nicer, owner-occupied, housing holding its value for several years for the same reasons as in 1988 - 1996.

Like I said in so many words waiting for a crash is a mugs game, and even worse if you invest so much life and time in the hope/prayer for one for your happiness and well-being.

If by 2035 say  house prices continue to level out now and then even start rising again with no crash happening that would not surprise me in the slightest

[Boon]

Pointless to be worrying about the overall nationwide indice isn't it?

All that really matters to you is what prices are doing in the places where you want to buy (or live)

There isn't one housing market for the entire country and different places are showing big divergences. For example some places and property types in London are already well down.

But also, other places are well up. I overheard on holiday a scouser boasting about having so much work to do because southerners were busy buying lots of houses. This sounds about right, because to an average southern boomer what do they have left? Little transferable skills and an overrated sense of ability that every deal they make is a winner. On paper at least yields on Liverpool houses are attractive even at higher prices.

Thus we could see a scenario where increases in the cheaper properties outweigh the losses in the more expensive ones. But a 0% overall figure (give or take 1% in either direction) is meaningless to almost everyone.

The government know that most people looking at the overall indices are thick. Thus (unbelievably) anecdotally you have London flat owners scratching their heads thinking the property markets are still strong, and thus will hang on or rent it out rather than crystallise a small loss.

[Frank Hovis]

7 minutes ago, haroldshand said:

Like I said in so many words waiting for a crash is a mugs game, and even worse if you invest so much life and time in the hope/prayer for one for your happiness and well-being.

If by 2035 say  house prices continue to level out now and then even start rising again with no crash happening that would not surprise me in the slightest

 

I think that they have had it long term because of the massive disconnect from wage levels, in Cornwall anyway but that the "nice" houses bought from previous HPI gains will remain immune to this effect for a long while after the lower levels have seen big reductions because they are mostly bought out of salary.

Though even those "nice" houses may start to crash if Wales' quadrupling of council tax on second homes is brought in in England.

 

[Frank Hovis]

2 minutes ago, Boon said:

The government know that most people looking at the overall indices are thick. Thus (unbelievably) anecdotally you have London flat owners scratching their heads thinking the property markets are still strong, and thus will hang on or rent it out rather than crystallise a small loss.

 

Yep.

I clarified that I was talking about London for the 1988 - 96 crash I described as I know it happened more quickly elsewhere.

In Cornwall coastal property shot up with lockdown - 20% plus - which was on top of big rises in previous years so there is a lot of recent local "froth" waiting to be unwound before national economic factors start to take effect.