How many are you counting on a house price crash?

[spygirl]

21 hours ago, haroldshand said:

Be honest.

I was lured over here from TOS because a handful of DOSBOD members picked up on my changing views and cynical attitude towards what I believe became an echo chamber and cult and taled me over to here. It's clear a few would welcome one on here and I think it would be more beneficial  for the country as a whole, but I also find it a dangerous hope where you put all your eggs in the same basket like I am starting to suspect with some.

I will swap my currently all paid for house, for another one, in a cheaper area, in the next 10y.

I'm assuming - but not depending - on the new house still being a lot cheaper £/sq meter.

I dont care if I sell for, say 400k, and buy 350k.

Or sell for 250k and buy for 200k.

I'm swapping one house for another, that's all.

 

[Milfhunter2021]

19 hours ago, tank said:

The net intake over the past year would be close to 1 million going off the widely reported number of visas issued and typical emigration.

It's well known that over 90% of those who arrive in the UK on temporary visas never leave. They either get a right to stay in some way or they disappear joining the millions of illegals currently in the UK.  

The government and the ONS will deliberately fudge the figures, but it is pretty obvious what they're up to here by doubling the number of visas issued. This all comes back to Harold's topic. Maintaining high property values via monetary policy, net immigration, housing benefit and other props is effectively the UK economy. 

I agree the whole UK economy is a fucking fraud....the UK ONS stats are lies...

You can see this by looking at any town in the UK... The ones who think house prices make an economy are stupid and ignorant.

The UK produces nothing , the prices are artificial...net immigration makes the stats look much better than what they actually are.

More foreigners equals less  property...means higher prices.

Whole of the UK is a fraud, and always has been.

I personally am glad it's going to collapse....those in nice White rich areas will lose everything they are too stupid to see it yet...but the clocks ticking.

Remember when they said there was 2 million East Europeans in the UK ....then after they found out it was 6 million plus. That proved the ONS was a fucking fraud on immigration stats.

The whole UK is built on lies , economy, the pound, property prices, it's one big circus show.... Run by clowns...to benefit themselves.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-settlement-scheme-applications-brexit-b1876988.html

[Milfhunter2021]

18 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

Right so you don't have any links but we should just believe you instead of the ONS. Thanks for your time.

Don't need the ONS ....you just need to open your fucking eyes.....look at any city or town in the UK....to see whats happening.

The White minority is going to happen.

The arseholes that think property is an asset are about to find out....that when you become a minority in your homeland you no longer "own that asset". 450k house becomes worthless.

 

 

[spunko]

Okay, I'll be honest. I want every property investor and house builder to lose their shirt and be begging in the streets. I want every Help To Buy wanker who ever boasted about their gainz to be living in the hedgerows. I want every young person who has been deprived of owning a home to forcefully retake what's theirs. I want every estate agent to go bust and turn to prostitution. I want every boomer who boasted about their second home property to have it forcefully taken off them by the state and given to a young person.

Supply and demand doesn't affect house prices, there are plenty of people who want a house (demand) but cannot afford one, There was an oversupply of houses in Ireland and Spain in 2008 and we all know what happened there, if people cannot get finance then it doesn't matter how much demand there is. Supply and demand fallacy is often spouted by boomers as it justifies their greed.

[haroldshand]

1 hour ago, Milfhunter2021 said:

I personally am glad it's going to collapse....those in nice White rich areas will lose everything they are too stupid to see it yet...but the clocks ticking.

Have to disagree, these rich areas might well lose value on their property, and even that I am now doubting, but taking away wealth from people is much harder than you might imagine. I have worked hard for this moment and started preparing 4 or 5 years ago for the cost of living crisis that is now here which includes holding onto the wealth I have and successfully. So those in the rich and super rich brackets have far better resources than I have and it would be a bugger to remove it from them if that's what anyone tried to do,

[haroldshand]

4 minutes ago, spunko said:

Okay, I'll be honest. I want every property investor and house builder to lose their shirt and be begging in the streets. I want every Help To Buy wanker who ever boasted about their gainz to be living in the hedgerows. I want every young person who has been deprived of owning a home to forcefully retake what's theirs. I want every estate agent to go bust and turn to prostitution. I want every boomer who boasted about their second home property to have it forcefully taken off them by the state and given to a young person.

Supply and demand doesn't affect house prices, there are plenty of people who want a house (demand) but cannot afford one, There was an oversupply of houses in Ireland and Spain in 2008 and we all know what happened there, if people cannot get finance then it doesn't matter how much demand there is.

 

F*** me there's honesty for you.

[spunko]

Just now, haroldshand said:

F*** me there's honesty for you.

I've always been honest about it, it looks like my wishes are about to come true though!

[haroldshand]

2 minutes ago, spunko said:

I've always been honest about it, it looks like my wishes are about to come true though!

I hope you are right and I would slightly edge towards thinking you are right, but I am not totally convinced yet and swayed opinions a dozen times in the past few years, UK property market is insane

[spunko]

19 minutes ago, haroldshand said:

I hope you are right and I would slightly edge towards thinking you are right, but I am not totally convinced yet and swayed opinions a dozen times in the past few years, UK property market is insane

It's insane in most western countries we aren't the only ones, I'm personally looking to America to see what they do as we tend to copy them.

[GTM]

1 hour ago, Milfhunter2021 said:

Don't need the ONS ....you just need to open your fucking eyes.....look at any city or town in the UK....to see whats happening.

The White minority is going to happen.

Whilst it's true that we've pretty much surrendered the capital and other places lock, stock and barrel you have to remember that the imported scum is not a homogenous group. Most of these groups despise each other. For example, the Hindus and the Sikhs absolutely hate the muzzers. If it really kicked off I could see the Hindus and Sikhs teaming up with whitey to rid ourselves of the muzzers. 

Of course we could really help ourselves by cutting benefits to zero for incomers. That'd get rid of a swathe of them overnight. 

[haroldshand]

16 minutes ago, spunko said:

It's insane in most western countries we aren't the only ones, I'm personally looking to America to see what they do as we tend to copy them.

I think the normal cycles we once had have been tampered with too much now and more so in the US and the economy in the UK is  far worse than Gordon Browns "I have ended boom and best" bullshit which was outed . Even  if we get a 60% property crash now I am not even sure I want to stay now, well that's the plan I am working with for now.

[haroldshand]

17 minutes ago, GTM said:

Whilst it's true that we've pretty much surrendered the capital and other places lock, stock and barrel you have to remember that the imported scum is not a homogenous group. Most of these groups despise each other. For example, the Hindus and the Sikhs absolutely hate the muzzers. If it really kicked off I could see the Hindus and Sikhs teaming up with whitey to rid ourselves of the muzzers. 

Of course we could really help ourselves by cutting benefits to zero for incomers. That'd get rid of a swathe of them overnight. 

Not in a million years, the Hindus and Sikhs will never match the numbers the Muslims are pushing out with the  welfare breeding program, remember Hindus and Sikhs are generally like us and work and pay tax and have to family plan. One of my best footballing mates was a Sikh and yes you are right on that point about hating them, the Sikh attitude is that they ruined it for all of them because you have to remember there are so many daft white British c***s in the UK that don;t know the difference, Hindus are not so hard on them but that's just their way,

Slightly off topic and for anyone who can get to Peterborough, Hindus have a great party every year in October where all the Women sort a massive feast which is Yum and have beer and music, it's worth the 80 mile round trip for me to go it's that good.

[feed]

House prices will fall when/if the availability of credit falls.  Problem is of course, if you’ve no capital then who is going to lend you the money to buy a house.  

If we do see a significant nominal fall in prices, then it’ll be institutional investors and the cash rich who will buy, particularly if the pound declines even further.  If you’re a dollar buyer, UK property already got a lot cheaper the last few months. 

 

 

Best chance for increased affordability is a slow real term decline with increases lower than inflation for a few years and policies that dissuade BTL/second home ownership.     
 

[haroldshand]

45 minutes ago, feed said:

If we do see a significant nominal fall in prices, then it’ll be institutional investors and the cash rich who will buy

Not sure what the immigration numbers are at the moment as I have just stopped looking out of annoyance, but I am sure it is way up there in the 100'000's and they need to be homed somewhere, I am being contradicted by some but BTL is still not looking all that bad for the future at the moment.

I really must take a look at the welfare spending data as well soon, cannot imagine what the housing benefit bill is at the moment

[feed]

25 minutes ago, haroldshand said:

Not sure what the immigration numbers are at the moment as I have just stopped looking out of annoyance, but I am sure it is way up there in the 100'000's and they need to be homed somewhere, I am being contradicted by some but BTL is still not looking all that bad for the future at the moment.

I really must take a look at the welfare spending data as well soon, cannot imagine what the housing benefit bill is at the moment

Individual BTLS' are likely done.  But institutional landlords, lower prices and fixed/increasing LHA rates, means improved yields.  It's always about access to capital.  

Falling house prices, reduced credit, higher rates.  Will likely make it harder to mortgage a property, even if the full term cost is lower than today.  Of course, if you’re cash rich or can secure credit, then you’re likely a winner.  But I doubt that it applies to most people wanting a house.  May return the OO/Rental ratio back to the mean.  
 

[Democorruptcy]

3 hours ago, spunko said:

Okay, I'll be honest. I want every property investor and house builder to lose their shirt and be begging in the streets. I want every Help To Buy wanker who ever boasted about their gainz to be living in the hedgerows. I want every young person who has been deprived of owning a home to forcefully retake what's theirs. I want every estate agent to go bust and turn to prostitution. I want every boomer who boasted about their second home property to have it forcefully taken off them by the state and given to a young person.

Supply and demand doesn't affect house prices, there are plenty of people who want a house (demand) but cannot afford one, There was an oversupply of houses in Ireland and Spain in 2008 and we all know what happened there, if people cannot get finance then it doesn't matter how much demand there is. Supply and demand fallacy is often spouted by boomers as it justifies their greed.

Your post is a bit of a logic fail. You want boomers who own second homes to lose them but then suggest supply and demand is a fallacy. Supply and demand isn't a fallacy if people are hoarding second homes, they add to the lack of supply. The problem in the UK, particularly in tourist spots is under occupancy. Too many houses are empty for too many nights. It could easily be resolved with 2 taxes. 100% Capital Gains Tax on any second home or holiday let that was previously used for residential purposes and a £50 a night Empty Home Tax, applied each night a second home or holiday let that was residential, is empty.

[Don Coglione]

3 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Your post is a bit of a logic fail. You want boomers who own second homes to lose them but then suggest supply and demand is a fallacy. Supply and demand isn't a fallacy if people are hoarding second homes, they add to the lack of supply. The problem in the UK, particularly in tourist spots is under occupancy. Too many houses are empty for too many nights. It could easily be resolved with 2 taxes. 100% Capital Gains Tax on any second home or holiday let that was previously used for residential purposes and a £50 a night Empty Home Tax, applied each night a second home or holiday let that was residential, is empty.

Communist!

[spunko]

10 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

Your post is a bit of a logic fail. You want boomers who own second homes to lose them but then suggest supply and demand is a fallacy. Supply and demand isn't a fallacy if people are hoarding second homes, they add to the lack of supply. The problem in the UK, particularly in tourist spots is under occupancy. Too many houses are empty for too many nights. It could easily be resolved with 2 taxes. 100% Capital Gains Tax on any second home or holiday let that was previously used for residential purposes and a £50 a night Empty Home Tax, applied each night a second home or holiday let that was residential, is empty.

If all the second homes were rendered illegal overnight, would prices fall because there's a surge of supply? Or would they still be out of reach because getting a mortgage is still just as difficult?

I don't want second home owners to sell in order to send prices tumbling, I want them to sell because nobody needs a second home.

[Wight Flight]

11 minutes ago, spunko said:

If all the second homes were rendered illegal overnight, would prices fall because there's a surge of supply? Or would they still be out of reach because getting a mortgage is still just as difficult?

I don't want second home owners to sell in order to send prices tumbling, I want them to sell because nobody needs a second home.

Correct.

The second home owner that bought the place I was renting two years ago still hasn't spent a night there.

They have made over £150k though.

Even more annoyingly it is tax free.

[tank]

On 13/09/2022 at 21:37, Democorruptcy said:

Right so you don't have any links but we should just believe you instead of the ONS. Thanks for your time.

The links backing up my assertions are below, including one straight from the horse's mouth. Over 1 million permanent and temporary residency/work visas issued in 12 months and, if typical emigration is taken into account, net intake is close to what I suggested too. If you want to believe the fudged figures/government spin go ahead, but there is now clear evidence of significantly higher net immigration post Brexit.

www.gov.uk/government/immigration/statistics/immigration-statistics-year-ending-2022

www.migrationwatchuk.org/news/2022/08/25/immigration-at-all-time-record-level-with-record-1-1-million-visas-issued-to-come-and-live-in-the-uk

[Democorruptcy]

11 hours ago, spunko said:

If all the second homes were rendered illegal overnight, would prices fall because there's a surge of supply? Or would they still be out of reach because getting a mortgage is still just as difficult?

I don't want second home owners to sell in order to send prices tumbling, I want them to sell because nobody needs a second home.

They wouldn't be illegal overnight, if people wanted one they still could but would have to pay more when they are empty and not make any capital gain when they sold. The 100% CGT could have a teaser rate over 3 years 50%, then 75% then 100%.

[Democorruptcy]

2 hours ago, tank said:

The links backing up my assertions are below, including one straight from the horse's mouth. Over 1 million permanent and temporary residency/work visas issued in 12 months and, if typical emigration is taken into account, net intake is close to what I suggested too. If you want to believe the fudged figures/government spin go ahead, but there is now clear evidence of significantly higher net immigration post Brexit.

www.gov.uk/government/immigration/statistics/immigration-statistics-year-ending-2022

www.migrationwatchuk.org/news/2022/08/25/immigration-at-all-time-record-level-with-record-1-1-million-visas-issued-to-come-and-live-in-the-uk

From your link over a 1m visas but "230,000 were for resettlement".

[spunko]

2 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

They wouldn't be illegal overnight, if people wanted one they still could but would have to pay more when they are empty and not make any capital gain when they sold. The 100% CGT could have a teaser rate over 3 years 50%, then 75% then 100%.

Yes I was just talking metaphorically. If second homes were made illegal overnight, would house prices (generally) crash because there's a huge new oversupply?

In my opinion, no. Supply has little to do with demand. If you added 100k extra properties onto the market overnight, even if prices went down as a result, the would-be buyers would not be able to buy them because the lending criteria and affordability checks would not allow them. If the banks can't lend you money, doesn't matter how much 'demand' there is.

[Wight Flight]

23 minutes ago, spunko said:

Yes I was just talking metaphorically. If second homes were made illegal overnight, would house prices (generally) crash because there's a huge new oversupply?

In my opinion, no. Supply has little to do with demand. If you added 100k extra properties onto the market overnight, even if prices went down as a result, the would-be buyers would not be able to buy them because the lending criteria and affordability checks would not allow them. If the banks can't lend you money, doesn't matter how much 'demand' there is.

Surely in that scenario the price would have to fall until the buyers can afford them?

Loose lending boosted the prices. Tighter lending should cause them to drop?

[spunko]

2 minutes ago, Wight Flight said:

Surely in that scenario the price would have to fall until the buyers can afford them?

Loose lending boosted the prices. Tighter lending should cause them to drop?

If that is the case, how does one explain the huge oversupply of houses that they could not sell for love nor money in Spain, USA, Portugal etc in 2007/2008. The prices were ridiculously low, there was demand, but the banks were not lending. They ended up as ghost towns IIRC.