Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 6)

[wherebee]

28 minutes ago, Long time lurking said:

 

is that crypto fucked then?  force breaking of security?

[nirvana]

13 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

You were there and didnt let me know?,,next time ......

It was about 7am in the morning..... And don't forget I'm still running away from alcohol...I'm mad enough as it is 

[Transistor Man]

2 hours ago, wherebee said:

is that crypto fucked then?  force breaking of security?

. “Quantum Simulated annealing”. Like the DWave machine Google has. Does optimisation problems, not factoring.
This is easier to do than the number-factoring type problems. There are hundreds of groups doing this stuff around the world. hyped to hell. This isn’t a trapped-ion machine, so no cooling to liquid helium temperatures. That’s the positive. 

Edited July 12, 2023 by Transistor Man

[onlyme]

9 hours ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

In France last week the supermarkets were dark. Lighting turned down very low. I thought that here that would be a shoplifting risk. However, I heard today that Asda, on the Old Kent Road of all places and surely a high shoplifting area, had the lights turned down so low that people thought it was shut until the doors opened. I would have thought the saving would be less than the cost in increased "shrinkage".

It is somehwat staggering that given the green agenda the very first locations you would think would festooned with solar - the likes of supermarkets with 1,000 sq ft of very usable roof space, very predicatable and largely daytime energy usage and businesses that can carry a bit investment funding - all seem pretty much devoid  of it.

[Plan-b]

6 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

She was an immigrant as well,its incredible what is going on.Given most of them i see arriving are the ugliest men on earth they are going to get frustrated and angry very quickly,even most of the hookers wont see them .

https://www.itv.com/news/granada/2023-07-11/man-stabbed-exs-son-to-death-then-tried-to-cross-english-channel-on-a-dinghy

The reverse dinghy - never heard of that before.

[sleepwello'nights]

7 hours ago, working woman said:

 

The Govt. / Local Councils should do a deal with static caravan holiday parks. Keep the swimming pool and play areas open and the kids would think they were on a permanent holiday. Takes pressure off the families. If the Govt. can do deals with whole hotels to house people, then they can do it for homeless families.  Whilst a great temporary solution, for many it may end up as permanent.

 

Alternatively:

https://inews.co.uk/news/shipping-container-housing-uk-investigation-modular-homes-homeless-families-567429

[King Penda]

8 hours ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Ex-council semis usually have proper gardens. A hot tub would look ridiculous in the yard of a terrace. Although you could probably hide some bullion underneath.

Having 3xxl bully dogs can be found in many back yards logic tells me you need a garden for a large dog unless it’s cruel im incorrect

[King Penda]

6 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

She was an immigrant as well,its incredible what is going on.Given most of them i see arriving are the ugliest men on earth they are going to get frustrated and angry very quickly,even most of the hookers wont see them .

That’s actually true many put on there adverts no blacks it’s funny has fuck

[Axeman123]

8 minutes ago, onlyme said:

It is somehwat staggering that given the green agenda the very first locations you would think would festooned with solar - the likes of supermarkets with 1,000 sq ft of very usable roof space, very predicatable and largely daytime energy usage and businesses that can carry a bit investment funding - all seem pretty much devoid  of it.

Tells you it isn't economically viable IMO, hence they won't do it voluntarily. The supermarkets could whack 5p on a pint of milk etc and make it obvious it was a de facto solar panel levy if the government tried to force them to install them at their own cost.

It is also my beleif that for years govts have encouraged supermarkets to screw suppliers etc on costs (even with cartel tactics etc) so long as they were passing on food disinflation to the public so they wouldn't notice they were getting slowly but steadily poorer in the post QE era.

@DurhamBorn Latest figure I can find is that housing benefits costs £23.4billion per year*. To put that in context:

Quote

The estimated annual cost of housing benefit is now £23.4bn, more than the total running costs of government departments including the Home Office, the Ministry of Justice and the Department for Transport. Only health and social care, education and defence account for larger shares of day-to-day spending.

I don't doubt Labour are retarded, but how much could LHA actually increase by without making cuts elsewhere before the Bond market steps in?

I certainly think there could be cost neutral fiddling (off the top of my head making more kids share so fewer bedrooms needed and then boosting rates perhaps). Maybe 10% extra total spend on LHA could be shaved off other departments, but do you think that would massively change the numbers? I can't get past how tied Labour's hands will be, especially as they have (effectively) announced they will stick to Conservative spending plans until growth returns** eg:

Quote

A Labour government would follow Conservative tax and public spending policies until growth returns to the ailing economy.

Senior members of the shadow cabinet expect to have no more money for public services if the party wins the election next year.

In a move that will risk angering unions and the left, senior Labour figures are so concerned about the state of the economy that they have decided to prioritise fiscal credibility over increased spending.

Rachel Reeves, the shadow chancellor, has indicated to colleagues that, in an effort to attract floating, middle-class voters in marginal seats, a Labour government would not raise personal taxes while the cost of living crisis persisted. One shadow cabinet member said: “Rachel isn’t going to make any major tax pledges.”

Will giving additional taxpayer money to "greedy private landlords" be the hill they choose to die on after gaining power? It would be an odd choice IMO.

* (New Statesman): https://archive.li/2QYjb

** (The Times): https://archive.li/QK8uW

[Plan-b]

34 minutes ago, onlyme said:

It is somehwat staggering that given the green agenda the very first locations you would think would festooned with solar - the likes of supermarkets with 1,000 sq ft of very usable roof space, very predicatable and largely daytime energy usage and businesses that can carry a bit investment funding - all seem pretty much devoid  of it.

Its an expensive option and takes a long time to pay for itself, I guess supermarkets are low margin with not much capital to spend - it will be yet more debt to the pile they already have.

I can see a time when the Government legislates and forces the issue, their electricity costs for refrigeration and air conditioning must be immense whereas most lighting these days is LED so pretty efficient.

Edited July 12, 2023 by Plan-b

[jamtomorrow]

11 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

No way I would be going into a one year fix at 5.5% in the current climate, especially Lloyds or Coventry, would rather have easy access at half that and 8.5% in BATS.

I took out a mortgage I didn't need with the Cov in 2020 because, as I told their consultant during the "financial attitudes" interview, they're going to regret lending out that money on those terms in a couple of years and I want to be on the other side of that terrible bet. 10Y fix at 1.9%.

Their "limited access" cash ISA is now paying 4.1% - if I max out the ISA allowance the difference in interest will pay for my car insurance.

Madness.

[King Penda]

6 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

Tells you it isn't economically viable IMO, hence they won't do it voluntarily. The supermarkets could whack 5p on a pint of milk etc and make it obvious it was a de facto solar panel levy if the government tried to force them to install them at their own cost.

It is also my beleif that for years govts have encouraged supermarkets to screw suppliers etc on costs (even with cartel tactics etc) so long as they were passing on food disinflation to the public so they wouldn't notice they were getting slowly but steadily poorer in the post QE era.

@DurhamBorn Latest figure I can find is that housing benefits costs £23.4billion per year*. To put that in context:

I don't doubt Labour are retarded, but how much could LHA actually increase by without making cuts elsewhere before the Bond market steps in?

I certainly think there could be cost neutral fiddling (off the top of my head making more kids share so fewer bedrooms needed and then boosting rates perhaps). Maybe 10% extra total spend on LHA could be shaved off other departments, but do you think that would massively change the numbers? I can't get past how tied Labour's hands will be, especially as they have (effectively) announced they will stick to Conservative spending plans until growth returns** eg:

Will giving additional taxpayer money to "greedy private landlords" be the hill they choose to die on after gaining power? It would be an odd choice IMO.

* (New Statesman): https://archive.li/2QYjb

** (The Times): https://archive.li/QK8uW

They will increase tax

[working woman]

6 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

She was an immigrant as well,its incredible what is going on.Given most of them i see arriving are the ugliest men on earth they are going to get frustrated and angry very quickly,even most of the hookers wont see them .

It was one of the first things I thought of when seeing the huge numbers of young men coming in.  And if they eventually want to settle, get married and have a family where are the women for this?   The Govt. will have to allow the same amount of women in. And then they are going to get old and will need help and care, which usually families help provide, but if they don't have a family?. Non of this makes long term sense. Well it does I suppose if you just think the Govt. is useless.

[onlyme]

4 minutes ago, Plan-b said:

Its an expensive option and takes a long time to pay for itself, I guess supermarkets are low margin with not much capital to spend - it will be yet more debt to the pile they already have.

I can see a time when the Government legislates and forces the issue, their electricity costs for refrigeration and air conditioning must be immense whereas most lighting these days is LED so pretty efficient.

Economies of scale, builk purchasing power and that they would be putting up 100's KW at a time would mean it should be pretty competitive.   Regrigeraion and chilling would most likely take a bulk of the power.  Payback got to be less than 10 years.

[wherebee]

10 minutes ago, working woman said:

It was one of the first things I thought of when seeing the huge numbers of young men coming in.  And if they eventually want to settle, get married and have a family where are the women for this?   The Govt. will have to allow the same amount of women in. And then they are going to get old and will need help and care, which usually families help provide, but if they don't have a family?. Non of this makes long term sense. Well it does I suppose if you just think the Govt. is useless.

The US and Australia for a long time had a no females rule for Chinese immigrants.  They came, worked, died alone or went back to china.

I wonder if we'll ever see anyone with the balls to do that again.

[Plan-b]

29 minutes ago, King Penda said:

That’s actually true many put on there adverts no blacks it’s funny has fuck

There might be another reason for that, its too beaucoup..

Heres a clip of the scene - Caution! its not for every viewer - discretion advised:  https://youtu.be/-iUQSM14YsE  

Interestingly large parts of the film, and likely this scene, were shot on the site of the old London docklands which is now Canary Wharf 

 

Edited July 12, 2023 by Plan-b

[crashmonitor]

Top 8 Banks clear stress testing by BOE. Won't be a cause for concern then with the Bank's predicted course of 6.5% Base Rates by the Spring.

 

https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/currency/US-DOLLAR-BRITISH-POUND-12684800/news/Stress-test-shows-top-8-UK-banks-have-enough-capital-says-Bank-of-England-44316302/

[Plan-b]

6 minutes ago, crashmonitor said:

Top 8 Banks clear stress testing by BOE. Won't be a cause for concern then with the Bank's predicted course of 6.5% Base Rates by the Spring.

 

https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/currency/US-DOLLAR-BRITISH-POUND-12684800/news/Stress-test-shows-top-8-UK-banks-have-enough-capital-says-Bank-of-England-44316302/

And it looks like the FX markets are convinced as the Pound reaches more than 1 year highs

[Castlevania]

55 minutes ago, Plan-b said:

https://www.itv.com/news/granada/2023-07-11/man-stabbed-exs-son-to-death-then-tried-to-cross-english-channel-on-a-dinghy

The reverse dinghy - never heard of that before.

Surely someone has to return the dinghy to France?

[Pip321]

7 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

No,its a risk,could be tomorrow,next week,three years,thirty years.The point is,although i dont expect it to happen,it is a real risk and im not going to risk losing 80% of our wealth overnight.I would rather take a bath on equities if i have to.Im at the stage where my main concern is keeping capital over the rest of the cycle at inflation returns.Im not sure of course if i will.Its telling i was going to add to BT today,but didnt.Its one of the few UK nearly all earning that should keep in front of inflation over the cycle,but i noticed Hunt mention regulators "putting hard pressed families first" and didnt like the sound of that.I bought some more SK Telecom instead.Im full on BAT about 4% above these prices so wont buy more,but notice others buying on here.It has risks aroun debt and regulation,but its a fantastic currency hedge.Its why so many South Africans own the stock.

The irony here is as immigrants flood into the UK our investment strategy might be to invest where some of the immigrants are coming from.

People in….money out😉

[Pip321]

9 hours ago, No One said:

@DurhamBorn you are going to love this story of the bright diverdity the polos have let in

 

https://www.itv.com/news/granada/2023-07-11/man-stabbed-exs-son-to-death-then-tried-to-cross-english-channel-on-a-dinghy

Starting to see more and more immigrant crime where the victim is also an immigrant.

There was one particularly awful crime which I won’t detail because I just think karma would kick me in the nuts for using it as an example to make a point…..but the victims mother also had broken East European accent but no reference to origin.

I also recall a while ago highlighting a housing shortage issue on the BBC website where the complainant who was having to wait for a house was again East European. Like me going to Portugal and then complaining they won’t house me???🤷🏻‍♂️

I wonder if soon it will get so bad in the UK that the immigrants will start complaining about the immigration policy and it’s impact on their own free services. Or better still they will stop seeing the UK as a safe place to live and dinghy their way to somewhere else?

Edited July 12, 2023 by Pip321

[belfastchild]

1 hour ago, onlyme said:

It is somehwat staggering that given the green agenda the very first locations you would think would festooned with solar - the likes of supermarkets with 1,000 sq ft of very usable roof space, very predicatable and largely daytime energy usage and businesses that can carry a bit investment funding - all seem pretty much devoid  of it.

Lidl NI are big in to it. Since 2018 all new stores and all refurbs including distribution centres.

[Heart's Ease]

5 minutes ago, belfastchild said:

Lidl NI are big in to it. Since 2018 all new stores and all refurbs including distribution centres.

Lidl and Aldi Sud in Bavaria also all covered in 2018 (or previously). They have a little panel by the door showing you the current generation information.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

7 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Even though most of them are scroungers as well,they will see all the newcomer scroungers getting looked after.BTL is going to be removed from the market,but millions dont work etc and wont be able to buy.The good thing is lots of working younger people will be able to.Its obvious big insurnace etc and banks will get involved,but a big lag.Even our terraces at £75k break even on 6.5% rates and thats before repairs,voids etc.Some will sink capital in of course to keep going,but it will become obvious soon to almost everyone that BTL is a mugs game now.I knew when my builder mate sold the lot late last year,he knows property inside out.I see a lot of southern estate agent signs going up around my home towns,looks like southerners trying to get out,always with sitting tenant,they probably cant afford to serve a S21 and have no rent for 6 months.

Key though is LHA,Labour will likely jack it up and the Tories might yet.

How much money is 6 months rent on these houses? I'm guessing £5k tops. If they cannot afford that they're proper fucked. Selling with a sitting tenant must knock at least that off the sales price. Also taking an increased risk that the occupants stop paying. I do see the argument that they're better off with a trusted tenant in place so that the fixtures and fitting aren't nicked.

 

[Lightscribe]

6 hours ago, wherebee said:

is that crypto fucked then?  force breaking of security?

China hasn’t even got the production process to compete with current chip technology architecture. Standard Chinese propaganda.

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2023/04/28/chinas-smic-may-struggle-to-make-cutting-edge-chips-competitively.html