Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 6)

[spunko]

Carrying on from Part 5. No, I didn't select the image:

 

 

[Errol]

I approve of the picture.

[Alifelessbinary]

I remember reading somewhere that poor men like bigger boobs compared to richer counterparts and page 3 boob size was a good gauge of the economy.

I fear that the chosen picture means tough time ahead! Shame they’ve got rid of page 3 as I would’ve like to assesses the impact over the last few years.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3590195/

[Ash4781b]

I hope they had tight control over that wage data release. There seemed to be a mad reported scramble yesterday to reprice and pull mortgage  deals.  Right at the end of part 5 posts now suggesting 5.75% bank rate peak. That is with the current tax raising plan so things seem to be moving quite fast.

Edited June 13, 2023 by Ash4781b

[afly]

  

41 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

re you guys with dc stakeholder landg work pnesions, I asked them this;

Is there any chance of ever getting any better funds in the stakeholder pension selection, i know years ago you messed up and accidentally let me buy gold and silver funds before you backed me out and put me back in rubbish like UK sterling lifestyle funds, ok fair enough, risky, but how about some south east asia/indian subcontinent, far east and other emerging market funds? Of my ISA and sipp outside of this work pension im powering ahead in those types of funds, really miss that kind of thing here, the melon funds provide some limited exposure to oil and commodities but not a great deal.
PS. when i say far east im not talking about 50% equity in Australia or Newzealand.

And they replied;
 

Good Afternoon,

Thank you for your message.

The Fund Centre will be updated when new fund become available to the Stakeholder Pension
Scheme. you can browse available funds in the investments tab of your online account.
There are no changes/ updates due in the near future.

If you need anything further please let us know. You can contact us on our webchat
facility which is open Monday Friday 9-5. You can find this via your online account by
clicking the green help icon at the bottom of page.

Kind regards,

Yes their offerings are absolute trash. Moaned about it before. I've been at the same place for a while now so it becoming a pretty sizable chuck of change.

The best I could do when last checked was Lazard EM 3

https://widgets-lgim.huguenots.co.uk/srp/documents-id/101f3ace-4f09-4279-8a69-d7fff7201b0c/Fact-sheet_Lazard-Emerging-Markets-Fund-LG-PMC-Lazard-Emerging-Markets-3.pdf

Caught quite a nice upswing thanks as always to this thread but all that finance and China 

 

Edited June 13, 2023 by afly

[belfastchild]

Mentioned on the EV thread I had a conversation with someone in the local motor industry out last night. Said Motability are pushing EVs quite hard in places.
Dont forget a lot of the stress motability etc here are ex-peelers and ex-screws, so the ones with good pensions etc etc etc.

Also was on the fringes of a conversation between a young lad complaining about not being able to rent anywhere cheaply and someone with over 60 flats BTL (on finance) who has a waiting list, manages it all themselves (pisses them off and gets in the way of the public sector day job!), interviews people for places and doesnt go through any agent. They said they got out of houses years ago and only will deal in flats, sorry apartments now. They were joined by a consultant surgeon of all people who is looking to buy a house here as they moved for work and whilst they have the dosh they said in their chosen area within commuting distance of the hospital all the housing stock coming on is shit, run down, in a bad state of repair and I mentioned probate etc and they said yes.

Just got my weekly shop in Tesco instead of lidl as I had to go pick something up in Tesco. Tesco was about 30% more expensive overall and judging by the stuff I had for lunch, poorer quality. Both are all ireland sources so I buy the same stuff in both places pretty much. That was with the 'clubcard prices' as well. And what is it with aul women blocking massive aisles with their trolly sidewards? FFS! Maybe its just a tesco thing!

[Joncrete Cungle]

1 minute ago, belfastchild said:

Mentioned on the EV thread I had a conversation with someone in the local motor industry out last night. Said Motability are pushing EVs quite hard in places.
Dont forget a lot of the stress motability etc here are ex-peelers and ex-screws, so the ones with good pensions etc etc etc.

Also was on the fringes of a conversation between a young lad complaining about not being able to rent anywhere cheaply and someone with over 60 flats BTL (on finance) who has a waiting list, manages it all themselves (pisses them off and gets in the way of the public sector day job!), interviews people for places and doesnt go through any agent. They said they got out of houses years ago and only will deal in flats, sorry apartments now. They were joined by a consultant surgeon of all people who is looking to buy a house here as they moved for work and whilst they have the dosh they said in their chosen area within commuting distance of the hospital all the housing stock coming on is shit, run down, in a bad state of repair and I mentioned probate etc and they said yes.

Just got my weekly shop in Tesco instead of lidl as I had to go pick something up in Tesco. Tesco was about 30% more expensive overall and judging by the stuff I had for lunch, poorer quality. Both are all ireland sources so I buy the same stuff in both places pretty much. That was with the 'clubcard prices' as well. And what is it with aul women blocking massive aisles with their trolly sidewards? FFS! Maybe its just a tesco thing!

Anyone being antisocial with a trolley gets some expensive items popped in it when they are not looking. Or something that will cause a row like just for men, centrum and a couple of packs of Johnny's...

[HousePriceMania]

This is worse than Harry fucking Potter or Breaking Bad.

When will the final part be ?

Edited June 13, 2023 by HousePriceMania

[MrXxxx]

 

[HousePriceMania]

I've seen that 5 year bond chart before somewhere

 

[leonardratso]

42 minutes ago, afly said:

  

Yes their offerings are absolute trash. Moaned about it before. I've been at the same place for a while now so it becoming a pretty sizable chuck of change.

The best I could do when last checked was Lazard EM 3

https://widgets-lgim.huguenots.co.uk/srp/documents-id/101f3ace-4f09-4279-8a69-d7fff7201b0c/Fact-sheet_Lazard-Emerging-Markets-Fund-LG-PMC-Lazard-Emerging-Markets-3.pdf

Caught quite a nice upswing thanks as always to this thread but all that finance and China 

 

that would have been nice but i cant even see that in our list of 52 available funds, its all gilts and us shite.

[leonardratso]

Didnt someone mention their solar output was crappy lately;
 

 

[M S E Refugee]

47 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

This is worse than Harry fucking Potter or Breaking Bad.

When will the final part be ?

I'm sure the BOE will get @DurhamBorn in just before the clock goes to zero.

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, belfastchild said:

Mentioned on the EV thread I had a conversation with someone in the local motor industry out last night. Said Motability are pushing EVs quite hard in places.
Dont forget a lot of the stress motability etc here are ex-peelers and ex-screws, so the ones with good pensions etc etc etc.

Also was on the fringes of a conversation between a young lad complaining about not being able to rent anywhere cheaply and someone with over 60 flats BTL (on finance) who has a waiting list, manages it all themselves (pisses them off and gets in the way of the public sector day job!), interviews people for places and doesnt go through any agent. They said they got out of houses years ago and only will deal in flats, sorry apartments now. They were joined by a consultant surgeon of all people who is looking to buy a house here as they moved for work and whilst they have the dosh they said in their chosen area within commuting distance of the hospital all the housing stock coming on is shit, run down, in a bad state of repair and I mentioned probate etc and they said yes.

Just got my weekly shop in Tesco instead of lidl as I had to go pick something up in Tesco. Tesco was about 30% more expensive overall and judging by the stuff I had for lunch, poorer quality. Both are all ireland sources so I buy the same stuff in both places pretty much. That was with the 'clubcard prices' as well. And what is it with aul women blocking massive aisles with their trolly sidewards? FFS! Maybe its just a tesco thing!

Just been in Home Bargains  an African,looked like 3 Iranians or some other middle eastern lot together,two kids as well.The lass was paying for something at the till and one of the muzzers was slowly kicking a swimming pool along the floor,picked it up and walked out.I told the lass on the till and said they are with her.Lass saying i not know them,i said yes you do they are with you.Store staff followed her out.They are invading us for bennies and thieving anything they can,utter scum.I have to walk away i get that angry il end up locked up putting some of them away.Its incredible how we are being invaded and destroyed while the government do nothing.Can only be a matter of time before we get real right wing parties.

Edited June 13, 2023 by DurhamBorn

[DurhamBorn]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/06/13/epidemic-public-sector-quiet-quitting/?li_source=LI&li_medium=liftigniter-rhr

Quiet quitting.

Again this is driven by bennies and pensions.They see everyone doing nothing as well as or better off than them,so then decide to do as little as they can.Its all feeding in,the poison of monetising welfare etc slowly destroying our economy.

Edited June 13, 2023 by DurhamBorn

[HousePriceMania]

11 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Just been in Home Bargains  an African,looked like 3 Iranians or some other middle eastern lot together,two kids as well.The lass was paying for something at the till and one of the muzzers was slowly kicking a swimming pool along the floor,picked it up and walked out.I told the lass on the till and said they are with her.Lass saying i not know them,i said yes you do they are with you.Store staff followed her out.They are invading us for bennies and thieving anything they can,utter scum.I have to walk away i get that angry il end up locked up putting some of them away.Its incredible how we are being invaded and destroyed while the government do nothing.Can only be a matter of time before we get real right wing parties.

I've had to switch to shopping in Waitrose and Sainsburys so I dont go bezerk at the invaders.

[leonardratso]

26 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Just been in Home Bargains  an African,looked like 3 Iranians or some other middle eastern lot together,two kids as well.The lass was paying for something at the till and one of the muzzers was slowly kicking a swimming pool along the floor,picked it up and walked out.I told the lass on the till and said they are with her.Lass saying i not know them,i said yes you do they are with you.Store staff followed her out.They are invading us for bennies and thieving anything they can,utter scum.I have to walk away i get that angry il end up locked up putting some of them away.Its incredible how we are being invaded and destroyed while the government do nothing.Can only be a matter of time before we get real right wing parties.

shite init.

I honestly thought you were starting a pub joke when i read that.

How many irish men does it take to change a lightbulb?

4. 1 to hold the bulb and 3 to spin the house.

To be sure to be sure.

course its joke, dont want to offend the belfast and other irish lads.

 

Edited June 13, 2023 by leonardratso

[CannonFodder]

32 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Just been in Home Bargains  an African,looked like 3 Iranians or some other middle eastern lot together,two kids as well.The lass was paying for something at the till and one of the muzzers was slowly kicking a swimming pool along the floor,picked it up and walked out.I told the lass on the till and said they are with her.Lass saying i not know them,i said yes you do they are with you.Store staff followed her out.They are invading us for bennies and thieving anything they can,utter scum.I have to walk away i get that angry il end up locked up putting some of them away.Its incredible how we are being invaded and destroyed while the government do nothing.Can only be a matter of time before we get real right wing parties.

Britain has fallen ...

 

We live in rainbow clownland now

 

 

Edited June 13, 2023 by CannonFodder

[Yadda yadda yadda]

32 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/06/13/epidemic-public-sector-quiet-quitting/?li_source=LI&li_medium=liftigniter-rhr

Quiet quitting.

Again this is driven by bennies and pensions.They see everyone doing nothing as well as or better off than them,so then decide to do as little as they can.Its all feeding in,the poison of monetising welfare etc slowly destroying our economy.

Workers feel underpaid, causing disillusionment and "quiet quitting". The question of why more people feel underpaid is not asked. No analysis of wages. Not even basic statistics showing how wages have failed to keep up with inflation. If you don't make the first step then you cannot make the second step of comparing with benefits. Policy is based on preventing wages keeping up with inflation. It is therefore obvious that people become poorer and are demotivated. There isn't a lot of point in keeping interest rates low to protect asset values if no-one can earn enough to maintain them. It will feed through one way or another and interest rates eventually go higher.

Lower productivity is as inflationary as higher wages. Much harder to turn around later too. It is habit forming.

Edited June 13, 2023 by Yadda yadda yadda

[Loki]

52 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Can only be a matter of time before we get real right wing parties.

"Whenever the people need a hero we shall provide him" Albert Pike, general all round nice guy and good bloke

Edited June 13, 2023 by Loki

[MrXxxx]

Someone recommend one of this gentleman's videos yesterday so I watched that and a few more.

He appears to do a daily review, where he covers a few of the headlines and what the markets are doing in a very succinct, non-technical, and easily accessible format for non-specialists, this despite having worked in the industry. In addition, although he is American he has lived in the UK since the 1990's, and his focus is very much bias to the implications for the UK. Finally, when he does need to cover something technical he is able to do it at a simple enough level for beginners to understand and doesn't add any BS...I really recommend this to all here, especially the non-technical [such as myself!]. Here is today's offering, and UK PLC and the housing market doesn't look good!

 

[DurhamBorn]

51 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Workers feel underpaid, causing disillusionment and "quiet quitting". The question of why more people feel underpaid is not asked. No analysis of wages. Not even basic statistics showing how wages have failed to keep up with inflation. If you don't make the first step then you cannot make the second step of comparing with benefits. Policy is based on preventing wages keeping up with inflation. It is therefore obvious that people become poorer and are demotivated. There isn't a lot of point in keeping interest rates low to protect asset values if no-one can earn enough to maintain them. It will feed through one way or another and interest rates eventually go higher.

Lower productivity is as inflationary as higher wages. Much harder to turn around later too. It is habit forming.

Unions existed to make sure the workers got inflation plus say 1% a year,that way labour and capital shared productivity gains etc.now we have the worst of all worlds.When i told Catherine Mann and the NE regional director for the BOE that bennies were making systemic collapse certain,you could see they had zero understanding.They simply cant understand why someone would want to live on £350 a week.Well because working gets them £400,not free time and loads of shit.They have used monetary policy to create in their eyes,a fair society,but you need workers to pay for it.Whats caught them all out is cycle change.Their policies are poison in a distribution cycle.

I have yet to see one polo or one media outlet mention that giving none workers more and more of the pie is a disaster.We know on here,but its due to massive vested interests.Civil servants gain from inflation.A lot of them are also BTL landlords who live nowhere near the trash,so massive benefit fuelled immigration is good for them.They hate their own country and are so greedy they dont care about generations to come.

I cant see how the Tories survive as a party,they are finished,and then Labour will follow.What comes out of that who knows.

For us on here we will likely get poorer as most of us are not inflation linked,so we just need to keep up as best we can until collapse or civil war etc.Country cant carry on as it is,something is coming,something massive i suspect.

[Pip321]

2 hours ago, leonardratso said:

that would have been nice but i cant even see that in our list of 52 available funds, its all gilts and us shite.

Hope you can get sorted.....My Pru Pension has awful options but seems so much better than the awful options you have.

Not to rub salt into the wounds but even in the vanilla shite of the Pru there are 5 interesting funds they have from the thousands of uninteresting ones, Apologies because not sure if these help your search or just highlights your limited options

Blackrock Gold, I like this one and have invested in it. Interactive Factsheet - BlackRock Gold and General Class D Acc (fundslibrary.co.uk)

Aberdeen Latin America, 55% Brazil and is on the rise. If I stay with the Pru I will add this Interactive Factsheet - abrdn OEIC abrdn Latin American Equity Class I Acc (fundslibrary.co.uk)

Russian Fund (ooo, interesting  ) Interactive Factsheet - Liontrust Russia Class C Acc (fundslibrary.co.uk)

JPM Natural resource, 8% in Rio, another fund I will add if I stay with the Pru. Interactive Factsheet - JPMorgan Natural Resources Class C - Net Acc (fundslibrary.co.uk)

And finally Food and Agriculture, maybe run its course. Interactive Factsheet - Sarasin Food & Agriculture Opportunities Class P Acc (fundslibrary.co.uk)

----------------------------------------------------------

As and aside even the vanilla Pru fund I have used isn't great but it plods on for now. Fewer gilts/bonds than the norm and a small % in some interesting investments but the bulk in doomsday generic funds. Its only temporary until I sell the house then I move more aggressively into direct investments and move to HL. 

Interactive Factsheet - Prudential PruFund Growth Fund Ser E (fundslibrary.co.uk)

I think HL is my favourite post completion option. 

[HousePriceMania]

1 hour ago, leonardratso said:

shite init.

I honestly thought you were starting a pub joke when i read that.

How many irish men does it take to change a lightbulb?

4. 1 to hold the bulb and 3 to spin the house.

To be sure to be sure.

course its joke, dont want to offend the belfast and other irish lads.

 

Belfast/Irish ?

they're British.....(lights fuse, stands well back)

[Sidd]

US Inflation down. Chances of no rate hike are almost a given. Gold and Silver down, am i missing something?