Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 6)

[Bobthebuilder]

1 minute ago, montecristo said:

Gone up another 0.02% in 10 minutes   After next weeks rate rise 1 year savings will be 6% +

Anything over £16,660 in that at 6% and you will be paying tax. More money for the bennie brigade. Cash ISA at that rate would be something good mind.

[MrXxxx]

5 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Sending back a million immigrants,slashing welfare,freezing state pennsions etc

How about freezing benefits, freezing personal tax allowance, and making state pensions tax-free?... this way inflation will erode the value/PP of benefits and as a result those [whether 'financial' immigrants or the idle] on benefits with have less incentive to either 'arrive' or not work as their standard of living will get lower and lower by taking such an approach. The 'Triple lock' can then withdrawn under the guise of the new system being 'better' as its 'tax-free' and/or equivalent due to 20 years of pension inflation at 2% equates to the tax savings being offered; the 'Average Joe' will not understand this and so will just accept what they are told, and those who have made private provision will still be taxed on their private pensions.

[Democorruptcy]

22 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Anything over £16,660 in that at 6% and you will be paying tax. More money for the bennie brigade. Cash ISA at that rate would be something good mind.

Depending on other income. The £1k rate on saving interest could be improved by the Starting Rate on Savings

https://www.gov.uk/apply-tax-free-interest-on-savings

[Pip321]

22 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Anything over £16,660 in that at 6% and you will be paying tax. More money for the bennie brigade. Cash ISA at that rate would be something good mind.

Agree....my liquid assets ie cash and shares are now almost all in ISA or SIPP. If my property sells I will max out on 2 x ISAs, add £3.6k to mine and Mrs P SIPPs and use the rest to repay the more expensive debt. Anything left over might just go into some Britannia's.  

 

[Bobthebuilder]

8 minutes ago, Pip321 said:

Agree....my liquid assets ie cash and shares are now almost all in ISA or SIPP. If my property sells I will max out on 2 x ISAs, add £3.6k to mine and Mrs P SIPPs and use the rest to repay the more expensive debt. Anything left over might just go into some Britannia's.  

 

I have spent the last few years sticking cash in ISAs and SIPP from a windfall, only keep a years worth of expenses in a instant access savings account now, buy guitars and drums with the rest.

[HousePriceMania]

@DurhamBorn is this in your model.....

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65908054

Beyonce blamed for inflation surprise in Sweden

[Ash4781b]

Wow thought I look at Asos plc share price as it looks like lots of speculation. Hmm. 

[leonardratso]

I asked LANDG about my DC stakeholder pension and transfers out, they have a dearth of info on their help pages about transferring out (in fact zero i could find), but lots and lots on transferring in, i should have asked about partial transfers but i put that to them in a 2nd question might get a reply tomorrow;

Good Morning,

Thank you for your message.

Youre able to transfer your plan to another registered pension scheme and there is no
charge to do so from Legal & General. However, we do always recommend seeking independent
financial advice before going ahead with a transfer.

You can view your transfer fund value through your online account. It"s updated every
working day.

There are no guarantees or valuable benefits on your pension plan to lose. There are no
penalties at all for transferring your pension funds away.

The value of the pension fund would simply be transferred to the other pension provider,
no charges or penalties at all.

If you need anything further, please let us know. You can contact us on our webchat
facility which is open Monday Friday 9-5. You can find this via your online account by
clicking the green help icon at the bottom of page.


Kind regards,
Pension shister.

Edited June 14, 2023 by leonardratso

[Cattle Prod]

2 hours ago, sancho panza said:

4 hours ago, Virgil Caine said:

People like Bailey are really just time serving place men and these are usually the sort of people who have to be removed as soon as a crisis hits. Few of Britain’s serving Generals in 1914 or 1939 survived in post until the end of the world wars.

Expand  

Very true.The failures of peace time generals lieke Percival (in Singapore)/Haig/Redvers Buller(Boer War) when they led troops into battle were analysed by Norman Dixon in  The Psychology of Military Incompetence.An excellent book.

Funnily enough I heard about this on a podcast recently, that Allied command just got rid of underperforming generals and admirals till they found the names we are familiar with today. It made me think of the ‘hard times make good leaders’ adage. The stakes were so high that you couldn’t persist with a duffer when Nimitz might get the job done.

Contrast that with now, where no matter what you do wrong you will get another star or stripe or an honour like Whitty/Valance.

The fish rots from the head and it seems there is no reward for competence until the shit hits the fan. So nobody bothers any more.  I wonder how long the US tranny admiral would have lasted in the Pacific theatre WWII. My great uncle was a Marine there, not long by all accounts.

[Plan-b]

As Predicted the US Fed has stayed put at 5.25%

Edited June 14, 2023 by Plan-b

[Loki]

And here we go, a hop 'skip' and a jump from a Fed pivot

 

Edit: So of course everything drops 

 

Edited June 14, 2023 by Loki

[Nomad]

7 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Uk has several alternatives,but that shill does not want to take them.Sending back a million immigrants,slashing welfare,freezing state pennsions etc.I would say the UK has never before in an interest raising cycle had more alternatives.Its just the polos have no guts to do anything.

As you say they will just keep along the same disastrous roadmap.The one that also saw two fantastic young people murdered by Africans.

I was driving home from work when I heard hunt on the radio. Couldn't believe my ears, "no other alternatives". They really are clueless

[Sugarlips]

34 minutes ago, Plan-b said:

As Predicted the US Fed has stayed put at 5.25%

I’m hearing he said still 2 more rises to come this year

[Plan-b]

17 minutes ago, Nomad said:

I was driving home from work when I heard hunt on the radio. Couldn't believe my ears, "no other alternatives". They really are clueless

There are alternatives but crazy eyes dare not go there, or even mention that alternatives exist.

Edited June 14, 2023 by Plan-b

[Plan-b]

15 minutes ago, Sugarlips said:

I’m hearing he said still 2 more rises to come this year

And I hope it happens ..  And more!

[M S E Refugee]

17 minutes ago, Plan-b said:

There are alternatives but crazy eyes dare not go there, or even mention that alternatives exist.

There never are any alternatives from these people, they have their orders from the WEF.

Edited June 14, 2023 by M S E Refugee

[Plan-b]

2 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

There never are any alternatives from these people, they have their orders from the WEF.

Maybe but we will never find out for sure

[Cattle Prod]

😂

I say to myself “you didn’t need a crystal ball for that one CP” but then I remember people I work with were even buying the narrative. Doing courses in CCS and coding, as I sat at my desk looking for oil and gas. The sentiment was overwhelming and it was a lesson to me that CEOs and boards will listen to their institutional shareholders (hence my rants about Larry Fink telling barefaced lies) over their own technical people.

I remember saying to them “If you don’t trust what your techs are telling you, get new ones”. In the event they didn’t get new ones, just got rid of their technical people.

Mr. Shell CEO is going to find it hard to find people to source the resources his shareholders are already demanding.

Edited June 14, 2023 by Cattle Prod

[Castlevania]

26 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

😂

I say to myself “you didn’t need a crystal ball for that one CP” but then I remember people I work with were even buying the narrative. Doing courses in CCS and coding, as I sat at my desk looking for oil and gas. The sentiment was overwhelming and it was a lesson to me that CEOs and boards will listen to their institutional shareholders (hence my rants about Larry Fink telling barefaced lies) over their own technical people.

I remember saying to them “If you don’t trust what your techs are telling you, get new ones”. In the event they didn’t get new ones, just got rid of their technical people.

Mr. Shell CEO is going to find it hard to find people to source the resources his shareholders are already demanding.

To be honest I think the new CEO seems to get it.

[Long time lurking]

#Houseprices

 

Edited June 14, 2023 by Long time lurking

[JoeDavola]

7 hours ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

The career angle only works if you get better jobs and more money over time. Working extra hours unpaid is an investment in increased future earnings. If that promise for future prosperity is broken then there is no incentive to work so hard. The very least you need to see is other people you can relate to moving up into better jobs. That at least provides hope. I'll work hard like they did and I'll get the promotion or move. If people aren't getting better jobs then fuck it, why bother?

Increasingly the promotion ladder is broken. An extra 20 hours of stressful work for a few thousand pounds extra take home. The likes of @JoeDavola have written about this extensively elsewhere on the boards.

The key is to figure out how to manage your own career well; but that involves finding a position with the right toil to reward ratio or to ensure you are working towards that. You will also have to become good at marketing yourself - everyone who aspries to any kind of career these days needs sales and networking skills.

Keeping your head down and working hard hoping someone else will notice is a very bad idea. Every quiet but hard working engineer type bloke I've known has had to fight like hell/beg for any promotions, and in several cases just leave. This is across both IT and civil engineering.

Hard work doesn't really mean shit if it doesn't come with a profile boost. You need to make sure that you are putting your effort into things that will enable you to raise your profile/status professionally.

I also think that the coporate/office world is increasingly moving into some kind of a caste system - if you are a good looking outgoing self-promoting woman you will be catapulted to a well paid management job far more quickly than if you are a bloke.

I cannot believe what I'm seeing in my company's recent hires, women with very little actual technical experience being hired at higher levels than all the senior tech blokes with 20, 30, 40 years in the indsutry behind them - they're all good looking so maybe the bloke hiring them just wants good looking young-ish women around him!

But the latest one hired has photos on her LinkedIn that were obviously taken in a professional studio, with very professional lighting setup - its like something you'd see in a movie or on the cover of a magazine. It's so foreign to me that someone would actually do this, especially someone in tech but this is the name of the game these days.

I know for a fact these jobs don't involve actually doing the hard technical work, they just have meetings with a contractor we're using where some faceless nerd is doing the development probably on about £30-40K grinding it out trying to get a bunch of tech to work.

In my team I found out recently that some of the tricker cloud work is being carried out remotely by some (well qualified) Indian bloke, no attempt even to pay to train us up in the stuff, again some faceless Indian nerd does it offsite now.

I think we are in a new world where image is more important than ever; if you are not the sort that is an outgoing and engaging heavily with LinkedIn and is accepted as 'management class' the like it's more likely that any attempt to grind hard and 'work' your way into a more senior job will be fruitless and will just end up you toiling to help someone else's career.

A few blokes with deep technical knowledge spanning 20 years a piece, but who looked like your average scruffy ropey looking engineers, moved on recently with no attempt at all to keep them. They spent years toiling in difficult technical work and were offered less reward over 20 years than the woman who has been promoted was offered in 18 months. Luckily for the blokes there happened to be a good job market for their particular skills and they got pay rises of 50%+, but if they'd stayed they would most likey have spent another 20 years grinding and being expected to 'know their place'.

So I'm not saying don't work hard, I'm saying make sure you're doing the right work and be realistic as to whether you're on a path and in a company where that hard work will pay off, rather tha being somebody's fool for not a bean extra.

[onlyme]

14 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

The key is to figure out how to manage your own career well; but that involves finding a position with the right toil to reward ratio or to ensure you are working towards that. You will also have to become good at marketing yourself - everyone who aspries to any kind of career these days needs sales and networking skills.

Keeping your head down and working hard hoping someone else will notice is a very bad idea. Every quiet but hard working engineer type bloke I've known has had to fight like hell/beg for any promotions, and in several cases just leave. This is across both IT and civil engineering.

Hard work doesn't really mean shit if it doesn't come with a profile boost. You need to make sure that you are putting your effort into things that will enable you to raise your profile/status professionally.

I also think that the coporate/office world is increasingly moving into some kind of a caste system - if you are a good looking outgoing self-promoting woman you will be catapulted to a well paid management job far more quickly than if you are a bloke.

I cannot believe what I'm seeing in my company's recent hires, women with very little actual technical experience being hired at higher levels than all the senior tech blokes with 20, 30, 40 years in the indsutry behind them - they're all good looking so maybe the bloke hiring them just wants good looking young-ish women around him!

But the latest one hired has photos on her LinkedIn that were obviously taken in a professional studio, with very professional lighting setup - its like something you'd see in a movie or on the cover of a magazine. It's so foreign to me that someone would actually do this, especially someone in tech but this is the name of the game these days.

I know for a fact these jobs don't involve actually doing the hard technical work, they just have meetings with a contractor we're using where some faceless nerd is doing the development probably on about £30-40K grinding it out trying to get a bunch of tech to work.

In my team I found out recently that some of the tricker cloud work is being carried out remotely by some (well qualified) Indian bloke, no attempt even to pay to train us up in the stuff, again some faceless Indian nerd does it offsite now.

I think we are in a new world where image is more important than ever; if you are not the sort that is an outgoing and engaging heavily with LinkedIn and is accepted as 'management class' the like it's more likely that any attempt to grind hard and 'work' your way into a more senior job will be fruitless and will just end up you toiling to help someone else's career.

A few blokes with deep technical knowledge spanning 20 years a piece, but who looked like your average scruffy ropey looking engineers, moved on recently with no attempt at all to keep them. They spent years toiling in difficult technical work and were offered less reward over 20 years than the woman who has been promoted was offered in 18 months. Luckily for the blokes there happened to be a good job market for their particular skills and they got pay rises of 50%+, but if they'd stayed they would most likey have spent another 20 years grinding and being expected to 'know their place'.

So I'm not saying don't work hard, I'm saying make sure you're doing the right work and be realistic as to whether you're on a path and in a company where that hard work will pay off, rather tha being somebody's fool for not a bean extra.

Also luck.

Need to be in the right sector at the right time, or at least not in the wrong sector at the wrong time.

[JoeDavola]

1 minute ago, onlyme said:

Also luck.

Need to be in the right sector at the right time, or at least not in the wrong sector at the wrong time.

Yes.

I've seen people luck into great jobs who clearly haven't been stressed, and I can see others who have stressed into premature old age for very little reward.

You get a sixth sense for this stuff. Like the bloke in my place who has hired these women, I can tell he's stressed to fuck. Aged 10 years in the last 2 the bags under his eyes have bags.

And as others have said in the world of engineering skillsets that can take years to build up can go out of fashion very quickly. Which is maybe why the smart people move to management asap.

[Bobthebuilder]

3 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

Yes.

I've seen people luck into great jobs who clearly haven't been stressed, and I can see others who have stressed into premature old age for very little reward.

You get a sixth sense for this stuff. Like the bloke in my place who has hired these women, I can tell he's stressed to fuck. Aged 10 years in the last 2 the bags under his eyes have bags.

And as others have said in the world of engineering skillsets that can take years to build up can go out of fashion very quickly. Which is maybe why the smart people move to management asap.

Having a "career" is largely a waste of your life imho, unless you are a doctor or lawyer type. I have been self unemployed for over 25 years now, and have never done a hard days work compared to when I used to "work" for some other leeching cunt.

[leonardratso]

29 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

Yes.

I've seen people luck into great jobs who clearly haven't been stressed, and I can see others who have stressed into premature old age for very little reward.

You get a sixth sense for this stuff. Like the bloke in my place who has hired these women, I can tell he's stressed to fuck. Aged 10 years in the last 2 the bags under his eyes have bags.

And as others have said in the world of engineering skillsets that can take years to build up can go out of fashion very quickly. Which is maybe why the smart people move to management asap.

you eventually end up with a hollowed out company with no discernible skills who has to outsource everything, a mere shell that maybe cant skim enough off the top to make it worthwhile or maybe even make a profit or even break even.

Happening to our place, all the skills and business intelligence slowly fading away and leaving mere dross behind, sort of reminds me of when my dad died, he was an engineer, i mean a real one, but also had a lot of shop floor skills with loads of machinery, laithes, milling machines, welding. Spent his spare time rebuilding car/motorbike/lawnmower engines and gearboxes in the shed, the sort of old school guy that would make everything last forever by overbuilding it. I remember his firm ~ actually a turbocharger and damper firm holset, which was eventually bought out by cummins then ended up bankrolling cummins when they hit the shit until they pulled back again, well eventually they started outsourcing all their shit to china and they became just a manager shell of outsourced work. So an entire lifetime of skills building and use all gone in a few short years, then lost forever when he died, never to be passed on and reused again.

Edited June 14, 2023 by leonardratso