Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 6)

[DurhamBorn]

11 minutes ago, Petatep said:

Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it. (George Santayana).

Understanding the past is the way to plan for the future.

 

IT IS always a temptation to an armed and agile nation
   To call upon a neighbour and to say: –
"We invaded you last night – we are quite prepared to fight,
   Unless you pay us cash to go away."

And that is called asking for Dane-geld,
   And the people who ask it explain
That you've only to pay 'em the Dane-geld
   And then  you'll get rid of the Dane!

It is always a temptation for a rich and lazy nation,
   To puff and look important and to say: –
"Though we know we should defeat you,  we have not the time to meet you.
   We will therefore pay you cash to go away."

And that is called paying the Dane-geld;
   But we've  proved it again and  again,
That if once you have paid him the Dane-geld
   You never get rid of the Dane.

It is wrong to put temptation in the path of any nation,
   For fear they should succumb and go astray;
So when you are requested to pay up or be molested,
   You will find it better policy to say: --

"We never pay any-one Dane-geld,
   No matter how trifling the cost;
For the end of that game is oppression and shame,
   And the nation that plays it is lost!"

[Bobthebuilder]

29 minutes ago, Plan-b said:

When its gone it will take a while but eventually it'll be like a return to the dark ages because of the loss of a myriad materials produced from fossil fuels cannot be made any other way.

The planet cannot support anything like the current world population without Fossil Fuels.

The loss will be catastrophic.

This is why I post so many Jack Hargreaves videos, and talk about Anglo Saxons so much, because we are heading back to the horse and plough from the middle ages, its inevitable.

[Plan-b]

17 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

This is why I post so many Jack Hargreaves videos, and talk about Anglo Saxons so much, because we are heading back to the horse and plough from the middle ages, its inevitable.

I really like those Vids, I think I'll hunt them down and get them downloaded.

[Long time lurking]

 

[Bobthebuilder]

7 minutes ago, Plan-b said:

I really like those Vids, I think I'll hunt them down and get them downloaded.

Jack Hargreaves tells how a Dorset River lost its name - YouTube

[Axeman123]

48 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

we are heading back to the horse and plough from the middle ages, its inevitable.

You know that if that happens, that is it for our species? There could never be another industrial revolution, as there would never be enough energy accesible to a pre-industrial society to start one. Humans would never settle new worlds, we would just dead-end scrabbling about in the mud until eventually going extinct as a single planet species.

That would be the most depressing thing imaginable, I would honestly rather we go extinct in a plague or full scale nuclear missile exchange. What would be the point of anything?

[Loki]

8 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

You know that if that happens, that is it for our species? There could never be another industrial revolution, as there would never be enough energy accesible to a pre-industrial society to start one. Humans would never settle new worlds, we would just dead-end scrabbling about in the mud until eventually going extinct as a single planet species.

That would be the most depressing thing imaginable, I would honestly rather we go extinct in a plague or full scale nuclear missile exchange. What would be the point of anything?

You're not thinking in cycles 

[Kendo]

@DurhamBorn 

https://www.ft.com/content/78fffc96-d856-4ad7-9531-95cd1ef6e1f9

https://archive.is/bfkkj

Maybe keep an eye on your inbox - and your junk - in case they get in touch.

Edited June 15, 2023 by Kendo

[Bobthebuilder]

3 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

You know that if that happens, that is it for our species? There could never be another industrial revolution, as there would never be enough energy accesible to a pre-industrial society to start one. Humans would never settle new worlds, we would just dead-end scrabbling about in the mud until eventually going extinct as a single planet species.

That would be the most depressing thing imaginable, I would honestly rather we go extinct in a plague or full scale nuclear missile exchange. What would be the point of anything?

Oil has been a one off, and us humans were lucky to be around just as it was ready after millions of years cooking underground. 

If you know anyone born around the time of WW2 ask them about it, my dad was born in 1935 and was under nourished through poverty.

We have been a bunch of lucky bastards.

[Sugarlips]

2 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

Be rather ironic if NW had 'issues' when their 'fixed rate' came to an end and couldn't meet their new payments...like some of their customers will have with a similar scenario!

Feels like the whole country is a ‘buy now pay later’ scam these days..

[Loki]

4 minutes ago, Sugarlips said:

Feels like the whole country is a ‘buy now pay later’ scam these days..

The interest free credit is a memory though 

[Wight Flight]

2 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Now I understand my visit to Brooklands a bit better, how all that stuff could be invented designed and built in England a few short years ago. The PPE politicians inherited a nation of tinkerers, inventors, engineers and utterly fucking wrecked it. They even take the piss out of James Dyson for supporting Brexit it makes you fit to be tied 😬😬😬

My FIL and his father worked for Hawker Sidley at Brooklands.

Interesting stories.

 

[Long time lurking]

 

[Chewing Grass]

31 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

We have been a bunch of lucky bastards.

and our children have never known it any other way. They are in for a shock, especially the rainbow unicorn entitled ones.

[Axeman123]

24 minutes ago, Loki said:

You're not thinking in cycles 

If we regress to fully non-industrial, there can never be a cycle - All the remaining energy sources on the planet are only accessible to an industrial society. The Romans never utilised oil or machines etc, hence even when their civilisation shrank a cycle later it could be eclipsed.

Bleak to think about. The idea that dark ages people could only concieve of Roman viaducts etc having been built by giants always seeemed like cope to me, the truth IMO is that few minds could handle seeing what past people were capable of and comparing it to subsistence farming etc - It would just be crushing despair.

[CannonFodder]

On a lighter note

 

 

[Loki]

16 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

If we regress to fully non-industrial, there can never be a cycle - All the remaining energy sources on the planet are only accessible to an industrial society. The Romans never utilised oil or machines etc, hence even when their civilisation shrank a cycle later it could be eclipsed.

Bleak to think about. The idea that dark ages people could only concieve of Roman viaducts etc having been built by giants always seeemed like cope to me, the truth IMO is that few minds could handle seeing what past people were capable of and comparing it to subsistence farming etc - It would just be crushing despair.

Of course there can, how did the oil get there in the first place?  Depending on what theory you believe.  Both still work. A big wave comes, buries a load of organic matter, a few humans survive, and off we go again

[Axeman123]

1 minute ago, Loki said:

Of course there can, how did the oil get there in the first place?  Depending on what theory you believe.  Both still work. A big wave comes, buries a load of organic matter, a few humans survive, and off we go again

That is an incredibly long cycle.

[Loki]

Just now, Axeman123 said:

That is an incredibly long cycle.

It is still a (Solar cycle based) cycle though 

[CannonFodder]

55 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

If we regress to fully non-industrial, there can never be a cycle - All the remaining energy sources on the planet are only accessible to an industrial society. The Romans never utilised oil or machines etc, hence even when their civilisation shrank a cycle later it could be eclipsed.

Bleak to think about. The idea that dark ages people could only concieve of Roman viaducts etc having been built by giants always seeemed like cope to me, the truth IMO is that few minds could handle seeing what past people were capable of and comparing it to subsistence farming etc - It would just be crushing despair.

Be like this

Edit - thinking about this - likely we will have the standard of life of somali as we did in 1750.

A few elites will have all the toys they have now - maybe like the movie elysium

Your scions may marvel at a stainless steel saucepan handed down the generations

Edited June 15, 2023 by CannonFodder

[King of Fools]

5 hours ago, Loki said:

I'm impressed by the gunt on stripey dress

FUPA

[Shamone]

1 hour ago, Axeman123 said:

You know that if that happens, that is it for our species? There could never be another industrial revolution, as there would never be enough energy accesible to a pre-industrial society to start one. Humans would never settle new worlds, we would just dead-end scrabbling about in the mud until eventually going extinct as a single planet species.

That would be the most depressing thing imaginable, I would honestly rather we go extinct in a plague or full scale nuclear missile exchange. What would be the point of anything?

Who would miss us?

[RWJ]

16 minutes ago, King of Fools said:

FUPA

Fanny Under Pirelli All-Season?

[Alifelessbinary]

1 hour ago, CannonFodder said:

On a lighter note

 

 

That’s the first time I’ve seen an AI generated propaganda video. As someone who’s obsessed with the AI revolution unfolding I expect twitter to become a constant stream of such material moving forward from all nations and political classes. The information war is now AI powered and it’s frighteningly easy to create such things.

We are moving from a position where knowledge was power, to knowledge overload. The key skill moving forward will be ensuring people can analyse, filter and assess information.

So many things are about to change, but governments are going to love their new found power to manipulate and control.

[DurhamBorn]

We still have 200 years worth of coal up here for the whole country.I think the green bullshit is such a disaster because there is a real need to come off oil and gas,but we need to be realistic.We need to work out how much we have,and how we need to be careful with it while we develop to new energy.The net zero rubbish is the real threat to humanity and the planet because if we dont develop new energy before oil and gas run out every tree on the planet will be chopped down in short order,then 5 billion will starve.

The first thing to do is expand nuclear to the level where we are not burning much gas for electric.Hybrid cars maybe,anything to lower oil use,public transport,bikes,anything,but joined up thinking.I would tax gas guzzlers hard,not for net zero,but because they are wasting resources we cant afford to waste.Like everything else,it seems we are being led by children and loons rather than hard headed thinkers.