Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 6)

[Funn3r]

1 hour ago, Shamone said:

I wanted to buy some more YARA but no money!

I too have no money but my SIPP does so I asked it nicely to buy some this morning. 

[Shamone]

Just now, Funn3r said:

I too have no money but my SIPP does so I asked it nicely to buy some this morning. 

I will get a tiny bit next month if they don’t shoot up. I have worked in that sector, those companies have incredible amounts of money to throw at research.

[Funn3r]

58 minutes ago, desertorchid said:

Pebble, is that you?

No because Eric would have posted in red 72 point font... 

[Cattle Prod]

1 hour ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Practicality has been stripped out of culture, to a large extent. My Dad went to Grammar School and then studied Physics at University. His schooling wasn't setting him up to work with tools. He hardly knew his father so no male role model at home. School gave him decent woodworking, metalwork and electrical skills. Minor jobs around the home he did and he would have done more if he didn't work long hours. I have folding side tables that he made. He had jobs in reasonably advanced manufacturing. Not on the tools himself but he knew how everything worked and had to make sure quality was spot on. I realise this is all written in the past tense but he is still alive and healthy.

I went to a comprehensive and learned very few practical skills. One of the few things I remember was using some sort heated metal element to bend plastic. Surprisingly I haven't used this skill at home... Discipline was awful. All my practical skills were learned from my Dad or later from YouTube videos. Arguably I have greater need for these skills because rent and mortgage have been a larger proportion of my expenses for longer. Lots of people now have no practical skills and rely on cheap labour - perhaps another reason why they support immigration. Youngsters today, excluding those that go into trades, appear even worse. Although I'm wary of judging purely on experience. Additionally why would you do DIY if you rent? I suppose lower skills in the general population means more demand for tradesmen and higher GDP.

I came home yesterday to find two young guys messing up the little bit of fence I have long campaigned my neighbour put up. They were there at 7.20pm, still hammering in feather edge boards, somewhat squint.

"Finishing up soon, fellas?"

"Yeah, hope , the nail gun is kaput so we have to so this with hammers." I pointed over at the 60m of fence I put up on the other side, "I did that with a hammer".  I had my own hammer and toolbox from about the age of 8.

I've never really thought about the fact that that is becoming increasingly rare, and what that means for the need for cheap labour. Thanks for that.

Edited June 16, 2023 by Cattle Prod

[DurhamBorn]

11 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

I came home yesterday to find two young guys messing up the little bit of fence I have long campaigned my neighbour put up. They were there at 7.20pm, still hammering in feather edge boards, somewhat squint.

"Finishing up soon, fellas?"

"Yeah, hope , the nail gun is kaput so we have to so this with hammers." I pointed over at the 60m of fence I put up on the other side, "I did that with a hammer".  I had my own hammer and toolbox from about the age of 8.

I've never really thought about the fact tha

I love fencing.I dont know why,but iv taken to loving working with big hammers,crow bars etc.Iv been building rose arches down the side of the house,its the bit thats south facing,about 5 feet wide then council grass verge,It was compacted builders rubble mostly so iv worked my way along with hammers,mortar chisels and crow bars and hacked the lot out by hand and replaced with John Innes no3 soil.Iv put in several 4x4 posts for trellis and i even put in 35mm soil pipe into the postcrete for the rose arches to go into so they wont rot in the ground and can lift them out and replace or weld on new bottoms if ever needed.Crowbars are wonderful things,i think if it kicks off with the skinnies rather than a bat etc i think il take my crowbar ,it just feels right when wielding it.

 

Edited June 16, 2023 by DurhamBorn

[Funn3r]

8 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

I came home yesterday to find two young guys messing up the little bit of fence I have long campaigned my neighbour put up. They were there at 7.20pm, still hammering in feather edge boards, somewhat squint.

"Finishing up soon, fellas?"

"Yeah, hope , the nail gun is kaput so we have to so this with hammers." I pointed over at the 60m of fence I put up on the other side, "I did that with a hammer".  I had my own hammer and toolbox from about the age of 8.

I've never really thought about the fact that that is becoming increasingly rare, and what that means for the need for cheap labour. Thanks for that.

For years pre-divorce when I was OO I used power screwdrivers but only on major screwing projects such as a new kitchen or IKEA side-table. 

Last week I got fed up with wonky door in my rented place and the fix involved 4 (four) tiny screws. I was cursing the manual screwdriver and looking nostalgically back to the good old days. Although in my defence I was up a stepladder. My point is, easy to go soft and let standards drop. 

[Transistor Man]

The Hugh Hendry video posted the other day, on modern national champions -- the companies USGOV will be batting for and wanting to succeed, had some good ideas. 

It's not hard to see, Intel are going to big beneficiaries, they are being backed to the hilt, and not just by the US. 

They are already friend-shored, and are now getting $11 bn to build a new fab in Germany.

It also looks like they will take up a pre-IPO position in Arm.

They've never been too keen on providing foundry services, and they haven't had the best decade, but I think they'll be forced to make it work this time. 

[Calcutta]

24 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I love fencing.I dont know why,but iv taken to loving working with big hammers,crow bars etc.Iv been building rose arches down the side of the house,its the bit thats south facing,about 5 feet wide then council grass verge,It was compacted builders rubble mostly so iv worked my way along with hammers,mortar chisels and crow bars and hacked the lot out by hand and replaced with John Innes no3 soil.Iv put in several 4x4 posts for trellis and i even put in 35mm soil pipe into the postcrete for the rose arches to go into so they wont rot in the ground and can lift them out and replace or weld on new bottoms if ever needed.Crowbars are wonderful things,i think if it kicks off with the skinnies rather than a bat etc i think il take my crowbar ,it just feels right when wielding it.

 

Hold the hook end in your right hand and drive the sharp end into the face/throat like a snooker cue. Get it deep enough into the face and you could cleave their head open.

A 4ft crowbar is brilliant for shattering an ankle with the first swing, but miss with that first swing, or have more than one problem to deal with, then it's too long and heavy.

Think swords, swinging a big old claymore around looks nice, but in battle the guys with the stabby little thin ones come out on top.

[Cattle Prod]

31 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I love fencing.I dont know why,

I think I do - you're enclosing your little kingdom against the madness of the world!

Now I have to persuade the Mrs that we need watchtowers.

[Loki]

2 hours ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

went to a comprehensive and learned very few practical skills. One of the few things I remember was using some sort heated metal element to bend plastic

Same.  (Tooth brush holder, by the way. It was shit)

[sancho panza]

jsut put the rent up innit........

First signs of serious distress in mortgage market too.

Remember stage 3(default) levels are very very low at the mo.

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/london-rents-78-of-average-pay-102450038.html

Average London rents are approaching 80% of residents' average monthly pay, as prices head past the £2,000 mark.

The average salary of a London resident is just over £41,000, according to recent data published by Statista. After tax, this comes out to around £2,600 a month.

Meanwhile, new research by Homelet has shown London rents reaching an average £2,039 per calendar month – about 78% of average pay after tax.

Rents have also risen outside the capital, with average UK prices now hitting £1,213, a 1.2% from last month’s average of £1,199.

The trends reported within the HomeLet Rental Index are from data on actual achieved rental values for just-agreed tenancies arranged in the most recent period.

The new data comes amid rising pressure in the mortgage market. Earlier this week it was revealed that UK households are struggling to pay their rising mortgages, with loans with arrears increasing by almost double-digits to £14.9bn.

The number of homeowners falling behind on their mortgages monthly payments increased by 9.5% in the first three months of the year and 12.5% on a year earlier, to £14.9bn, according to the latest figures from the Bank of England.

This is the highest seen since early 2021 and now accounts for almost 1% of all mortgage balances.

[onlyme]

3 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

jsut put the rent up innit........

First signs of serious distress in mortgage market too.

 

House moving guy (also had hand in some online real estate services) reckons actual rents already falling having indeed gone up.  Third of gross salary (from video I posted earlier) always considered a reasonable benchmark. A lot of data is very stale, most recent period could be anything and if they can they will talk their book and do anything to mask what is going on.

All of it is unsustainable.

[sancho panza]

The mood music in the MSM beginnign to get a very Basement feel

The'y're starting to quote Neal Hudson ffs

https://inews.co.uk/inews-lifestyle/money/property-and-mortgages/official-1980s-level-mortgages-uk-2416723?ico=related_stories

Mortgage stress is about to hit levels last seen in the 1980s as the rate for the average easy-access home loan is set to hit 6 per cent this weekend.

Nationwide, Clydesdale and Atom Bank pulled their cheapest loans yesterday, with Nationwide increasing pricing by up to 0.7 percentage points for the second time in the week.

It comes after housing market analyst Neal Hudson told i that rates of 6 per cent now will cause the equivalent “stress” of the 13 per cent interest rates seen in the 80s.

Skipton Building Society also hiked the rate on its zero-deposit mortgage this morning from 5.49 per cent to 5.89 per cent just a month after launch.

The average mortgage rate for a two-year fix has increased from 5.83 per cent at the end of last week to 5.98 per cent so far today, according to Moneyfacts.

Pricing is being pushed up, due to rising swap rates amid predictions that the Bank of England could push the base rate above 5 per cent to tackle high inflation.

 

Telegrpah

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/why-british-homeowners-face-the-worst-mortgage-shock-in-the-world/ar-AA1cAFHn

Why British homeowners face the worst mortgage shock in the world

Britain is one of the only countries in Europe where 80pc of existing mortgages, and 90pc of new mortgages, are propped up by short-term fixed rates.

It also differs considerably to the US, where the majority (around 70pc) of borrowers take out 30-year fixed rates – a product billionaire investor Warren Buffet once called “the best instrument in the world”.

It means that in times of economic shock, the UK’s short-term fix model – which sees lenders fund mortgages with borrowers’ deposits – leaves homeowners “much more exposed to interest rate risk”, according to experts. This is because borrowers carry the interest rate risk in the UK, rather than the lenders.

Back in 2021, some of Britain’s high street lenders were offering sub-1pc two-year fixes. Now those same lenders are offering their cheapest two-year fixes at 5.27pc.

This means those who locked into a mortgage two years ago in the UK now face their repayments doubling, trebling – and in some rare cases, quadrupling.

 

[JMD]

8 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

Interesting, so my 'read' of that is that it wont be the single "My second property is my pension" brigade that will suffer the pain, but the "Property never goes down so I am 'balls in and leveraged upon leveraged" that will suffer. I assume the Conventional 2+ are the 'Accidental landlords'?...who will [if they are sensible] get out 'sooner rather than later with a small loss?

To gauge sentiment of the private rental sector I sometimes look on Property Tribes - because it has many experienced portfolio-type landlords. This recent thread from the site is interesting, on the whole they (so far) still appear to be a sanguine but realistic bunch.

https://www.propertytribes.com/get-out-now-before-the-labour-party-get-in-t-127659200-1.html

 

As an aside their biggest landlord ('dislexic landlord') has been a landlord for 40 years in the Newcastle area and I believe has 800 properties. Real name is Elaine Power's, I wonder if @DurhamBorn knows 'her'(??)? Anyway below she does an interview to camera, actually an interesting story, and where she talks about Tyneside Flat properties which I'm sure I recall @DurhamBorn mentioning before on here?

https://www.propertytribes.com/meet-elaine-power-a-k-a-dislexic-landlord-t-127640973-1.html

 

 

 

 

Edited June 16, 2023 by JMD

[Long time lurking]

2 hours ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

I went to a comprehensive and learned very few practical skills. One of the few things I remember was using some sort heated metal element to bend plastic. Surprisingly I haven't used this skill at home... Discipline was awful

I had the exact opposite and it was due to discipline ,i was simply never going to be "academic" lucky for me my school recognised this fact ,basically in the last two years if it was clear that you were a problem to others (din`t give a shit about the academic side and become disruptive ) but were not so in the practical subjects such as metal work etc you went on a vocational pathway ,i left comprehensive with my first two years of a city&guilds already completed 

The only downside was they failed to sign post this to the technical colleges and skill centers thus i done the first year all over again before i actually had to point it out to them via showing them my certificates after the the first year exams which was when i realised i had sat the exact same exam two years earlier 

Edited June 16, 2023 by Long time lurking

[afly]

31 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

The mood music in the MSM beginnign to get a very Basement feel

The'y're starting to quote Neal Hudson ffs

https://inews.co.uk/inews-lifestyle/money/property-and-mortgages/official-1980s-level-mortgages-uk-2416723?ico=related_stories

Mortgage stress is about to hit levels last seen in the 1980s as the rate for the average easy-access home loan is set to hit 6 per cent this weekend.

Nationwide, Clydesdale and Atom Bank pulled their cheapest loans yesterday, with Nationwide increasing pricing by up to 0.7 percentage points for the second time in the week.

It comes after housing market analyst Neal Hudson told i that rates of 6 per cent now will cause the equivalent “stress” of the 13 per cent interest rates seen in the 80s.

Skipton Building Society also hiked the rate on its zero-deposit mortgage this morning from 5.49 per cent to 5.89 per cent just a month after launch.

The average mortgage rate for a two-year fix has increased from 5.83 per cent at the end of last week to 5.98 per cent so far today, according to Moneyfacts.

Pricing is being pushed up, due to rising swap rates amid predictions that the Bank of England could push the base rate above 5 per cent to tackle high inflation.

 

Telegrpah

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/why-british-homeowners-face-the-worst-mortgage-shock-in-the-world/ar-AA1cAFHn

Why British homeowners face the worst mortgage shock in the world

Britain is one of the only countries in Europe where 80pc of existing mortgages, and 90pc of new mortgages, are propped up by short-term fixed rates.

It also differs considerably to the US, where the majority (around 70pc) of borrowers take out 30-year fixed rates – a product billionaire investor Warren Buffet once called “the best instrument in the world”.

It means that in times of economic shock, the UK’s short-term fix model – which sees lenders fund mortgages with borrowers’ deposits – leaves homeowners “much more exposed to interest rate risk”, according to experts. This is because borrowers carry the interest rate risk in the UK, rather than the lenders.

Back in 2021, some of Britain’s high street lenders were offering sub-1pc two-year fixes. Now those same lenders are offering their cheapest two-year fixes at 5.27pc.

This means those who locked into a mortgage two years ago in the UK now face their repayments doubling, trebling – and in some rare cases, quadrupling.

 

Thanks to this thread I had the knowledge and confidence to get a 10 year fix @ 1.99%. Even if rates stop here that has saved me £60,000. Incredible!

Edited June 16, 2023 by afly

[AlfredTheLittle]

28 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

jsut put the rent up innit........

First signs of serious distress in mortgage market too.

Remember stage 3(default) levels are very very low at the mo.

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/london-rents-78-of-average-pay-102450038.html

Average London rents are approaching 80% of residents' average monthly pay, as prices head past the £2,000 mark.

The average salary of a London resident is just over £41,000, according to recent data published by Statista. After tax, this comes out to around £2,600 a month.

Meanwhile, new research by Homelet has shown London rents reaching an average £2,039 per calendar month – about 78% of average pay after tax.

Rents have also risen outside the capital, with average UK prices now hitting £1,213, a 1.2% from last month’s average of £1,199.

The trends reported within the HomeLet Rental Index are from data on actual achieved rental values for just-agreed tenancies arranged in the most recent period.

The new data comes amid rising pressure in the mortgage market. Earlier this week it was revealed that UK households are struggling to pay their rising mortgages, with loans with arrears increasing by almost double-digits to £14.9bn.

The number of homeowners falling behind on their mortgages monthly payments increased by 9.5% in the first three months of the year and 12.5% on a year earlier, to £14.9bn, according to the latest figures from the Bank of England.

This is the highest seen since early 2021 and now accounts for almost 1% of all mortgage balances.

They're all shared houses/HMOs, which is ok for the young / students, but it's a disaster for families and kids. Thanks government.

[DoINeedOne]

@sancho panza I was just glancing at YARA in simplywallst and noticed they have a new way to display all the income and expenses 

I don’t even know what this kind of chart is called, but after seeing one posted on Twitter a while back I always loved the visual look to glance at 

So thought I would share it’s currently in beta

Edited June 16, 2023 by DoINeedOne

[Eventually Right]

Santacruz SCZ.v is back trading again, in case anyone was waiting for that.

(I've just sold out)

[Long time lurking]

 

[JMD]

6 hours ago, Long time lurking said:

It`s real for sure , i don`t think its been done intentionally by those doing it, by that i mean they don`t think they are sticking to the man so to speak 

I`m seeing it more and more in my line of work ,i have never seen so many people saying fuck the overtime time ,it`s like they have realised  running on the hamster wheel has achieved fuck all for them ,and are now doing the bare minimum  need to survive ,and to be honest most seem happier by doing so 

Basically people have given up 

Hopefully those people you mention have not totally given up... Maybe someone or something can properly harness and focus their discontent.

If ever there was a time for a new political party to break through, it is now. I certainly hope something does emerge, perhaps with 'a Boris and a Farage attached' in some capacity, ie not necessarily leading but instead using their rallying skills. 

Not saying such a political party would gain useful or effective power. After all we on here know the ultimate dire economic direction of travel for this country. But I for one would at least like some 'inconvenient' truths spoken out loud, in the media, etc. 

Edited June 16, 2023 by JMD

[janch]

CRE beginning to hurt in US:

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/regional-banks-scramble-unload-commercial-real-estate-loans-fearing-new-crisis

.........According to a report by Bank of America, 68 percent of CRE loans are held by regional banks. Approximately $450 billion in CRE loans will mature in 2023. JPMorgan Chase estimated that CRE loans comprise, on average 28.7 percent of the assets of small and regional banks, and projected that 21 percent of CRE loans will ultimately default, costing banks about $38 billion in losses...........

[Starsend]

1 hour ago, afly said:

Thanks to this thread I had the knowledge and confidence to get a 10 year fix @ 1.99%. Even if rates stop here that has saved me £60,000. Incredible!

I got a five year fix at 0.99% in Jan 2022. Been churning out 5 - 10% dividends for me.

I'll pay it back when it runs out in 3.5 years and see how much I've made.

Tasty, fucking tasty.

[Starsend]

1 hour ago, JMD said:

Hopefully those people you mention have not totally given up... Maybe someone or something can properly harness and focus their discontent.

If ever there was a time for a new political party to break through, it is now. I certainly hope something does emerge, perhaps with 'a Boris and a Farage attached' in some capacity, ie not necessarily leading but instead using their rallying skills. 

Not saying such a political party would gain useful or effective power. After all we on here know the ultimate dire economic direction of travel for this country. But I for one would at least like some 'inconvenient' truths spoken out loud, in the media, etc. 

Hope that Borris isn't involved, really wouldn't want to vote for any party that useless dishonest cunt is a part of.

[23rdian]

5 hours ago, Shamone said:

I wanted to buy some more YARA but no money!

Which UK brokers are selling this? My two usual aren't and I wouldn't mind a few? 

EDIT: Found them on eToro. Does anyone here use eToro? I've never felt entirely sure about them. 

Edited June 16, 2023 by 23rdian