Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 6)

[crashmonitor]

2 hours ago, Nomad said:

Oh dear, https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65922072

Exactly if you subsidise mortgages then interest rates have to go higher to work. You wouldn't put anything past our clueless Government though.

[headrow]

As someone who has lived in the same house for 33 years I'll be fucking fuming if they started giving handouts to mortgage holders. Force them to downsize is the obvious solution , the crazy solution is asking me ,the tax payer, to subsidise their nonsense.

It's thoroughly depressing as somebody who has never claimed anything and seeing people who won't help themselves wanting a bit of my fucking pie. I honestly feel like I am at war with our politicians , so fucking tiresome.

[Chewing Grass]

11 hours ago, stoobs said:

Looks like one of our coal-fired power stations is now back as a full-time operation.

From https://www.nationalgrideso.com/news/eso-sets-out-early-expectations-winter

They cranked the Bullshit Generator up to 11 to cover that one.

Sneaking in on the right at 350MW in summer.

Perhaps they've realised its the only way to keep bills down a bit, probably regretting shutting 2GW of coal capacity last summer now.

Edited June 18, 2023 by Chewing Grass

[Pip321]

22 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

Remember it’s all just incompetence…

 

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/06/what-is-degrowth-economics-climate-change/

So the message from the EU is degrowth being the new agenda……redistribution of wealth etc. Must be Carbon neutral otherwise we all will be dead by the end of the week etc. Also the message is we can’t run a world on a finite resource  

Is it that some countries are fucked because they don’t own the black stuff. Also the ‘sand people’ and those from the ‘um click’ ‘um bongo bongo’ countries are starting to realise who actually owns energy and commodities (ie they do) and that where true wealth lies. 

So is the real message from the EU/UK is that we have had a great 60/70 years or so but we can’t use fossil fuels indefinitely because as supply diminishes it is shifting the real power elsewhere in the world. Oh, but we can put sewerage into rivers and kill the environment but that’s ok because we don’t actually care because this is all about it power, energy and control?

@Cattle Prod genuine question….could the carbon neutral agenda really about a self realisation that power is shifting and some countries are no longer willing to let the West help themselves (directly and indirectly) to their finite resource. Particularly when the West are paying using an infinite supply of fiat. As I say….particularly if we factor in that these virtue signally messages seemingly ignore ‘acceptable forms of pollution’ 

Don't get me wrong….no one should be wasteful, use more than the need or throw plastic into the sea and being kind to the environment is a good thing……it’s the rise of the massive political green agenda I am suspicious of. 

 

Edited June 18, 2023 by Pip321

[Joxer]

2 hours ago, PETR4 said:

Some youtube videos I watched to share with the thread:

22m 50s. TLDW: The high life of a Youtube influencer in Dubai. All credit to anyone who pull off being a Youtube influencer. I think this is a good example of a new economy job. They didn't exist when I was young!

14m 58s TLDW: A selection of examples of why South Africa is in an economic mess. Notably doesn't have a remedying prognosis

 

Also 14m 58s TLDW: Why techonology and those who own it will be the next Superpower.

 

Youtube influencers living in Dubai are mostly prostitutes. That's both the men and women. 

Definitely not a new economy job 

[leonardratso]

1 minute ago, Joxer said:

Youtube influencers living in Dubai are mostly prostitutes. That's both the men and women. 

Definitely not a new economy job 

porta potty ones?

[Kendo]

3 hours ago, montecristo said:

Split in the camp?

 

Bit wary about the word “direct” here. Could be interpreted as direct handouts not being an option but being able to pay your mortgage before your tax, as per a current petition argues, is being considered (indirect help?)

[Chewing Grass]

39 minutes ago, Pip321 said:

So the message from the EU is degrowth being the new agenda……redistribution of wealth etc. Must be Carbon neutral otherwise we all will be dead by the end of the week etc. Also the message is we can’t run a world on a finite resource  

Is it that some countries are fucked because they don’t own the black stuff. Also the ‘sand people’ and those from the ‘um click’ ‘um bongo bongo’ countries are starting to realise who actually owns energy and commodities (ie they do) and that where true wealth lies. 

So is the real message from the EU/UK is that we have had a great 60/70 years or so but we can’t use fossil fuels indefinitely because as supply diminishes it is shifting the real power elsewhere in the world. Oh, but we can put sewerage into rivers and kill the environment but that’s ok because we don’t actually care because this is all about it power, energy and control?

@Cattle Prod genuine question….could the carbon neutral agenda really about a self realisation that power is shifting and some countries are no longer willing to let the West help themselves (directly and indirectly) to their finite resource. Particularly when the West are paying using an infinite supply of fiat. As I say….particularly if we factor in that these virtue signally messages seemingly ignore ‘acceptable forms of pollution’ 

Don't get me wrong….no one should be wasteful, use more than the need or throw plastic into the sea and being kind to the environment is a good thing……it’s the rise of the massive political green agenda I am suspicious of. 

 

I always get the impression that Von der Leyen would have done very well in 1930s Germany if they had let women into government.

[Eventually Right]

40 minutes ago, headrow said:

As someone who has lived in the same house for 33 years I'll be fucking fuming if they started giving handouts to mortgage holders. Force them to downsize is the obvious solution , the crazy solution is asking me ,the tax payer, to subsidise their nonsense.

It's thoroughly depressing as somebody who has never claimed anything and seeing people who won't help themselves wanting a bit of my fucking pie. I honestly feel like I am at war with our politicians , so fucking tiresome.

I’d be truly shocked if they started giving out handouts-pressure on the banks to not repossess I think is a given, but actual taxpayer payments to mortgage holders?

I can’t see it-the (righteous) fury of renters would be too much.

 

[Eventually Right]

4 minutes ago, Kendo said:

Bit wary about the word “direct” here. Could be interpreted as direct handouts not being an option but being able to pay your mortgage before your tax, as per a current petition argues, is being considered (indirect help?)

Surely the question that would be asked endlessly of the government from renters would be:

”why can’t I pay my rent out of pre-tax income?”

Hell, maybe they’ll do both, 12 month temporary MIRAS and RIRAS scheme…

[Chewing Grass]

1 minute ago, Eventually Right said:

Surely the question that would be asked endlessly of the government from renters would be:

”why can’t I pay my rent out of pre-tax income?”

Hell, maybe they’ll do both, 12 month temporary MIRAS and RIRAS scheme…

and your travel to work costs.

The only way the government fixes anything is if its costing them tax receipts.

[Wight Flight]

7 minutes ago, Eventually Right said:

Surely the question that would be asked endlessly of the government from renters would be:

”why can’t I pay my rent out of pre-tax income?”

Hell, maybe they’ll do both, 12 month temporary MIRAS and RIRAS scheme…

Temporary 

[leonardratso]

6 minutes ago, Wight Flight said:

Temporary 

transitory.

[M S E Refugee]

Could the Government not exchange the mortgage debt for equity and charge a percentage as rent or am I being obtuse?

[spygirl]

6 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

Oh dear… what a plonker.

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/personal-banking/mortgages/mortgage-bomb-middle-class-britain/#:~:text=Annual mortgage costs have already,live in more expensive homes.
 

https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.telegraph.co.uk%2Fpersonal-banking%2Fmortgages%2Fmortgage-bomb-middle-class-britain%2F%23%3A~%3Atext%3DAnnual%20mortgage%20costs%20have%20already%2Clive%20in%20more%20expensive%20homes
 

London and the south fooked.

TheFraser is ayouwaht?

But the one later - assuming these are real people n situations -

 

Rachel Thorpe*, 43, and her husband secured their current deal on their four-bed detached house in Buckinghamshire in 2018; the loan was £510,000 at a rate of 1.94 per cent, meaning monthly repayments were around £1,850. “Not inconsiderable but manageable on our joint wages,” she says. Knowing that the deal was coming to an end this July, they started shopping around for a new mortgage in February. The best rate their advisor could find was 3.94 per cent. That took the couple’s monthly payments to around £2,300 for a five-year fix. “We were pretty appalled we’d have to find an extra £450 a month,” says Thorpe. “That may be peanuts for some but for a young family of four, where I’m only working part-time and we have no free childcare from grandparents or wider family, it’s a hell of an ask.” 

500k mortgage and they can't afford a 450/m bump - thats 225/m each, 60/w extra each.

And why in fuck fix for just 2y at 1.9? 5? 10?

What were they expecting? Lower rates??

 

[Wight Flight]

2 minutes ago, spygirl said:

500k mortgage and they can't afford a 450/m bump - thats 225/m each, 60/w extra each.

I night each working at KFC should cover that.

[spygirl]

Just now, Wight Flight said:

I night each working at KFC should cover that.

He could deliveroo Friday teatime.

She could deliveroo Saturday teatime.

 

[Eventually Right]

14 minutes ago, Wight Flight said:

Temporary 

I should have put Temporary in quotation marks.

Although I’m not sure the gilt markets would tolerate that long term, unless the rest of the world followed suit? 

[Majorpain]

1 hour ago, Chewing Grass said:

They cranked the Bullshit Generator up to 11 to cover that one.

Sneaking in on the right at 350MW in summer.

Perhaps they've realised its the only way to keep bills down a bit, probably regretting shutting 2GW of coal capacity last summer now.

West Burton actually held on until March this year, no doubt they have put some sledgehammers through the boilers/turbines by now to make sure it never emits another gram of C02.

[Cattle Prod]

1 hour ago, Pip321 said:

attle Prod genuine question….could the carbon neutral agenda really about a self realisation that power is shifting and some countries are no longer willing to let the West help themselves (directly and indirectly) to their finite resource. Particularly when the West are paying using an infinite supply of fiat. As I say….particularly if we factor in that these virtue signally messages seemingly ignore ‘acceptable forms of pollution’ 

Yes, I think it is a form of that all right, and that the realisation was quite a while ago. As I said about the Hubbert curve, it's quite predictable to see coming. You could say that 'bringing democracy to Iraq' was the last throw of the dice, and since that didn't work (in the West's favour)  the invasion option is off the table and they are going for Net Zero next to condition us to getting pooer and not growing. I'm not sure they've thought through what that means for debt based fiat currency mind you.

Which comes to how they've been paying for it, which is the nuts of it. Even if a country doesn't have it, it can buy it. It;s a golbal commodity sold to the highest bidder, but the catch is you need money the seller wants, which is again becoming gold. Last time the reserve currency was linked to gold, it drained the US Treasury till Nixon broke the link, so they know that isn't going to work either. If net zero is their latest bright idea it really is pretty desperate end of empire stuff. You can just see how emboldended that resource owning countries have become. Can't be invaded (Iraq showed that), can refuse paper money, and the West (particularly the UK and EU) doesn't have enough gold to buy what it needs.

The US might stave it off for decades yet with the dollar (which will still be widely used, and needs to be exported), their own energy needs mostly met, and reshoring manufacturing to produce goods the rest of the world wants which it can sell for hard currency.

I hate to say it, but the UK could well be the canary in the coal mine for what is going to happen (though as usual Germany is trying hard to compete). It's not the debt itself that's the problem, at around 100% of GDP and a lot of that at long maturities, it's serviceble. But the deficit is horrendous. It means that every month the UK government has to convince (or compel) the bond market to give them a shit ton of money, with no growth plan to show in return other than low value immigrants.

Think about it, how long more is this going to last? And it needs this borrowed money to import food and fuel. I think one reason the polos are panicking so much is that they have been told in no uncertain terms about the gun to their head.

The US can be ignored as they are required to run a deficit as the reserve currency. UK is up next, and it does not have the luxury to have foreign countries scrabbling to find sterling to pay for oil. It's insane that it is anywhere near the US, and it's getting worse. At least Italy got Meloni in there who might sort things out (you can see why she is being nice to the bond market too). 

If that OBR dashed line doesn't start trending down soon, I think the UK faces a recknoning. There is no more to be taxed, and I'll be watching tax take with interest, Laffer curve may mean it comes in low, which I think would cause a panic. Spending is as we know going up with inflation. We'll know soon enough.

As an aside, I got a letter from HRMC looking for £270 off me. No explanation why, just log on an pay it, or they'll contact my employer to deduct from my salary. So I logged on to try and find what it was for, which I did eventually: overpayment of  tax credits in 2014. How very bizzarre, and to me the very definition of looking for pennies down the back of the sofa. Who is telling them to send out those ridiculous letters, and why?

So to your original point, I think it's quite likely that this carbon netral agenda in the UKs case is classic misdirection. Some nudge unit arsehole told them that people will accept less if they feel virtuous about it. And probably much the same for the OECD. Thing is though, as @DurhamBorn points out, there is plenty of coal here. Maybe 13 years of Tories couldn't bear to reverse Thatcher's pit closures. Imagine if Labour did...I suspect the Germans are leading the way here. I'll be watching them for a PR campaign on how their particulate and CO2 scrubbers are rendering it as clean an Alpine meadow.

The thing about net zero is that the politicans simply aren't dealing with the reality of it yet. It's not just about getting by with less, and wearing a jumper. It's collapsing currencies, and rioting people. The behavioural 'scientists' at the nudge unit are going to be wrong again. 

Edited June 18, 2023 by Cattle Prod

[Chewing Grass]

4 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

You could say that 'bringing democracy to Iraq' was the last throw of the dice, and since that didn't work (in the West's favour) they are going for Net Zero next to condition us to getting pooer and not growing. I'm not sure they've thought through what that means for debt based fiat currency mind you.

In simple terms they are lying to us yet again to kick the lynching can down the road.

[Cattle Prod]

Just now, Chewing Grass said:

In simple terms they are lying to us yet again to kick the lynching can down the road.

Yep, I think so. It's also because of a short term grab for resources for themselves. They'll spin out any old bullshit as 3 or 4 years in the Wesminster pig trough iis enough to secure themselves, and then they don't care. They're not even thinking of down the road, they are thinking quick in/out bank the ministerial pension. Truss managed about £115k a year worth about £4 million for 6 weeks work. I really don't think they give a fuck, they'll just peddle any old nonsense.

[M S E Refugee]

8 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

The thing about net zero is that the politicans simply aren't dealing with the reality of it yet. It's not just about getting by with less, and wearing a jumper. It's collapsing currencies, and rioting people. The behavioural 'scientists' at the nudge unit are going to be wrong again.

A cosseted and spoilt population aren't going to give up their superficial lifestyle without a fight.

Then throw in some bone-idle third world gimmegrants into the mix and we soon have Politicians hanging from lamp posts.

I'm no behavioural scientist but to me their plans look ill thought out.

[Long time lurking]

 

[ashestoashes]

3 minutes ago, Long time lurking said:

 

thought Natwest was getting into rented properties, surely they need a supply of properties with distressed sellers