Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 6)

[King Penda]

8 hours ago, honkydonkey said:

housepricecrash.co.uk ?

That’s ok if you rent

[leonardratso]

26 minutes ago, stoobs said:

https://twitter.com/stats_feed/status/1670084894112854018?s=61&t=Kfz_uEr4xptbl2MzTjL9EA

 

BRICSAABEIISU

 

hmm nearly makes for some great scrabble words;

 

https://word.tips/unscramble/bricsaabeiisu*/

 

Edited June 17, 2023 by leonardratso

[Axeman123]

7 minutes ago, AlfredTheLittle said:

It's a huge country, I think third biggest after China and India.

Pedantically it is fourth, after them plus USA.

A big drop off after the first two though, obviously.

7 minutes ago, AlfredTheLittle said:

It's a huge country, I think third biggest after China and India.

Pedantically it is fourth, after them plus USA.

A big drop off after the first two though, obviously.

[Plan-b]

5 minutes ago, King Penda said:

That’s ok if you rent

Do a fresh sign-up under a name like, King Spenda or summat 

[Lightscribe]

Remember it’s all just incompetence…

 

 

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/06/what-is-degrowth-economics-climate-change/

Edited June 17, 2023 by Lightscribe

[King Penda]

7 minutes ago, Plan-b said:

Do a fresh sign-up under a name like, King Spenda or summat 

My speeling might give me away

[leonardratso]

10 minutes ago, King Penda said:

My speeling might give me away

borrow spygirls ketboard, they will cancel each other out.

[Plan-b]

1 hour ago, Red Debt Redemption said:

Its a mythical place and its reputation conjures an interior something like this...

[DurhamBorn]

31 minutes ago, Plan-b said:

Its a mythical place and its reputation conjures an interior something like this...

The women are slightly older,but most of the blokes dress in old rags and have bent faces,if your decent your fighting them off with a shitty stick,

 

If we ever get shut down the meet is on The Magdalen Steps in Durham during the Miners Gala where our old Colliery Bands carry all the banners and play the English National Anthem Mr Brightside 

 

[King Penda]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

The women are slightly older,but most of the blokes dress in old rags and have bent faces,if your decent your fighting them off with a shitty stick,

 

If we ever get shut down the meet is on The Magdalen Steps in Durham during the Miners Gala where our old Colliery Bands carry all the banners and play the English National Anthem Mr Brightside 

 

Horribly white

[Phil]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

The women are slightly older,but most of the blokes dress in old rags and have bent faces,if your decent your fighting them off with a shitty stick,

 

If we ever get shut down the meet is on The Magdalen Steps in Durham during the Miners Gala where our old Colliery Bands carry all the banners and play the English National Anthem Mr Brightside 

 

Up and around Durham today. Me and Mrs. I have had to come back to the west mids as I was craving “ diversity, diversity, diversity “. Only saw 3.

[DurhamBorn]

57 minutes ago, Phil said:

Up and around Durham today. Me and Mrs. I have had to come back to the west mids as I was craving “ diversity, diversity, diversity “. Only saw 3.

Its starting though,more and more arriving every day here,im sure its southern councils shipping them up and paying their rents or something in BTLs,another reason the destruction of landlords cant come soon enough.Free money caused all our ills,expensive money will solve a lot of them.A few recent boat arrivals as well,and the Middle east ones just seem to be here to shoplift.

[King Penda]

2 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Its starting though,more and more arriving every day here,im sure its southern councils shipping them up and paying their rents or something in BTLs,another reason the destruction of landlords cant come soon enough.Free money caused all our ills,expensive money will solve a lot of them.A few recent boat arrivals as well,and the Middle east ones just seem to be here to shoplift.

I’m very close to going postal on my next door neighbour not the Kurds but the white stokies . I’m not perfect but they are losing the plot now she has to work a few hours .there yard is full of dog shit and their dog looks like it was in belson . They keep promising to get a skip and they can’t let their own kid out for the mess.yet I smell skunk every night . They think the Pakistani guy doing the house up next to them (ie into a 3 bed) will let them have it . He has aready told me no fucking chance .they have been good neighbours and friends for several years but they are starting to get on my fucking nerves now with the dog shit and a dog that if they got caught owning would possibly result in a criminal conviction 

[Bien Pensant]

On 16/06/2023 at 08:15, Plan-b said:

Hubbert’s Peak is Here

The only source of growth over the past decade, the shales, are now beginning to show signs of exhaustion.

I don't know how accurate this report is but hopefully @Cattle Prod will give it a once over, it seems legit to me.

https://blog.gorozen.com/blog/hubberts-peak-is-finally-here

The West/NATO countries had better start to either make friends with or invade and take the oil of OPEC and other oil producing countries. Perhaps Ukraine and Syria are the start of more serious energy supply confrontations? Maybe.

I think the thing that many people miss about 'Peak Oil' is that it's actually all about guns, not butter.

People may remember the US diesel shortage toward the end of last year. Well, that was caused by its own sanctions against Russia's (Urals) heavy oil and only eased when 'Biden' lifted sanctions on Venezuelan oil (on some bullshit pretext).

Because the US is now having to drill so deeply to reach its remaining reserves, the conditions down there mean that, most of the 'oil' it recovers is very light indeed (in fact, some of it is really Natural Gas Liquids, being what precipitates out of such gas when it reaches the surface).

The problem with this is that it is made up of fractions whose energy per unit volume is much lower than the heavier ones and hence are useless for running high-powered vehicles, vehicles such as:

Ships - Heavy Fuel Oil, 38.9 MJ/litre
Trucks and Tanks - Diesel, 38.6 MJ/litre
Jet Aircraft - Kerosene, 35 MJ/litre

The point being that the US cannot maintain its empire without grades of oil which come from without its homeland and if it can't get that oil then it can't maintain its empire.

That's why the Neocons (well, really the whole US establishment) are so obsessed with controlling the world's oil reserves, it's not just about ensuring their own citizens' morale by keeping their SUVs juiced up.

Edited June 18, 2023 by Bien Pensant

[Bien Pensant]

On 16/06/2023 at 10:37, onlyme said:

The conscientiousness gap -  Why should I be hard working, conscientious, realible, responsible and legally liable, fixing stuff for others - whilst there are others running away with the spoils, often with zero accountbility, little evidence of ability or any other traits demanded of them.

Literally Atlas Shrugged.

Edited June 18, 2023 by Bien Pensant

[stoobs]

Looks like one of our coal-fired power stations is now back as a full-time operation.

Quote

The increased margins compared to last year are driven by the availability of additional new generation, improved data quality, the availability of generation units that were partially or fully unavailable last winter and the return to the capacity market of one of the coal contingency units used last winter, which will now operate in the normal electricity market for this year.

From https://www.nationalgrideso.com/news/eso-sets-out-early-expectations-winter

[Ash4781b]

19 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

Lyn Alden does a neat thread tieing up some ideas. Nothing "new" but links some things up in ways I hadn't connected.

It seems to tie into @DurhamBorn's systemic collapse thesis, govt spending needs to shrink or inflation will rocket (US in this case, but same principle as the UK).

One stand out chart IMO is:

Loan creation has already rolled over, while fiscal defecit is climbing again after the post COVID decline. Interest rates have likely done all they can do, and now only cutting govt spending can prevent a resurgence of inflation.

Surely it should be as simple as some of the better known posters keeping their usernames on any new board (assuming it is google indexed). 

 I was thinking for companies with debt (which they will have due to the tax advantages) the bank interest rate rises almost certainly mean a rise in interest cost. Which will find its way into inflation if firms have the pricing power. 

I know a few posters have recently asked how does raising interest rates reduce inflation. It seems like a simple question but from my memory economic theories really struggled with this over the years and there were various camps and groups of theories which I’ve forgotten about because in part I think we were told inflation was beaten and gone ( not on this thread though).
 

Hunt seems to be very much raise rates and taxes to lower inflation (we’ll that’s what he believes edit: as only approach and I guess Sunak too? )- I forgot which camp that is. It feels a bit like we are about to go down the wrong path, a terrible path. I’m sure Tories won’t continue like this and can see quite obvious moves some Tories are getting ready to move. 
 

Edit: the problem is the last time something suggested different cutting taxes (Truss) it all went wrong. Well at least some out there didn’t like it. 

Edited June 18, 2023 by Ash4781b

[sleepwello'nights]

18 hours ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

"Brexit is to blame for inflation, claims Mark Carney"

Isn't it about time these useless lying bankster C***s were rounded up and sent here:

 

Terrible the effect UK leaving the EU had on the rest of Europe.

[ThoughtCriminal]

On 17/06/2023 at 09:54, Loki said:

I think us basement dwellers need to consider a rendezvous point online for if this forum goes offline 

I proposed this a couple of years back. Maybe a Twitter account we can all follow that only posts when the shit hits the fan?

[Axeman123]

4 hours ago, Ash4781b said:

Hunt seems to be very much raise rates and taxes to lower inflation (we’ll that’s what he believes edit: as only approach and I guess Sunak too? )- I forgot which camp that is. It feels a bit like we are about to go down the wrong path, a terrible path. I’m sure Tories won’t continue like this and can see quite obvious moves some Tories are getting ready to move. 
 

Edit: the problem is the last time something suggested different cutting taxes (Truss) it all went wrong. Well at least some out there didn’t like it. 

(my strike through)

It is interesting that the BoE were only at 2.25% in October 2022 when Truss resigned, up until that point BoE interest rate hikes had been largely symbolic IMO. One of the biggest criticisms of Truss' time in no10 was that interest rates would now have to rise much higher than previously expected. The BoE had been doing 25bps rises and only reached 1.25% in June that year! The first 50bps rise to 1.75% was in Augist and the second in September. Post Truss the BoE piled on a 75bps rise (which shocked everyone) in Novemeber - her fall from grace enabled a big catch up with BoE able to point the finger. Even the uncertainty of the Tory leadership contest over the summer gave the BoE cover to step up to 50bps increments.

IMO Hunt et al were in the MMT camp, ie print to infinity and use higher taxes as the brake on inflation if required rather than interest rates. MMT must have been a seductive vision of the future for politicians, unlimited spending and the big challenge is how to distribute it (it would be like a teenage boy imagining how he would rota five supermodel girlfriends at once!); Permanenet Blairism-on-steroids would be the innevitable outcome. Once the national debt was at the level it reached post COVID IMO the establishment were all-in on MMT, and this plus the loss of the fantasy of unlimited spending was likely a big part of the resistance to Trussism.

[ThoughtCriminal]

US backed "revolution" coming to Kenya soon...........

[Errol]

7 minutes ago, sleepwello'nights said:

Terrible the effect UK leaving the EU had on the rest of Europe.

Agree. Germany completely deindustrialising itself.

[Lightscribe]

Oh dear… what a plonker.

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/personal-banking/mortgages/mortgage-bomb-middle-class-britain/#:~:text=Annual mortgage costs have already,live in more expensive homes.
 

https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.telegraph.co.uk%2Fpersonal-banking%2Fmortgages%2Fmortgage-bomb-middle-class-britain%2F%23%3A~%3Atext%3DAnnual%20mortgage%20costs%20have%20already%2Clive%20in%20more%20expensive%20homes
 

London and the south fooked.

[Errol]

5 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

US backed "revolution" coming to Kenya soon...........

Horribly black. 

[SpectrumFX]

1 hour ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

I proposed this a couple of years back. Maybe a Twitter account we can all follow that only posts when the shit hits the fan?

There's a Gab account for such purposes.

https://gab.com/dosbods