Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 6)

[Wight Flight]

34 minutes ago, onlyme said:

Also luck.

Need to be in the right sector at the right time, or at least not in the wrong sector at the wrong time.

I ended up in the latter.

[leonardratso]

But i suppose he did steal tens of thousands of pounds of kit from work over the years, so it wasnt all bad, wonder what happened to it all, i can remember him having really high grade professional tools of all varieties but none of it was ever delivered or bought.

[Errol]

3 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Funnily enough I heard about this on a podcast recently, that Allied command just got rid of underperforming generals and admirals till they found the names we are familiar with today. 

Precisely what the Russians have done in Ukraine. In a meeting yesterday, Putin referred to the problem of what he termed 'parquet' generals

[Plan-b]

25 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

you eventually end up with a hollowed out company with no discernible skills who has to outsource everything, a mere shell that maybe cant skim enough off the top to make it worthwhile or maybe even make a profit or even break even.

Happening to our place, all the skills and business intelligence slowly fading away and leaving mere dross behind, sort of reminds me of when my dad died, he was an engineer, i mean a real one, but also had a lot of shop floor skills with loads of machinery, laithes, milling machines, welding. Spent his spare time rebuilding car/motorbike/lawnmower engines and gearboxes in the shed, the sort of old school guy that would make everything last forever by overbuilding it. I remember his firm ~ actually a turbocharger and damper firm holset, which was eventually bought out by cummins then ended up bankrolling cummins when they hit the shit until they pulled back again, well eventually they started outsourcing all their shit to china and they became just a manager shell of outsourced work. So an entire lifetime of skills building and use all gone in a few short years, then lost forever when he died, never to be passed on and reused again.

I remember Holset they had a good reputation. The whole onshoring thing in the west is going to take a very long time to regain and relearn the skills to make things and make them correctly. I think if its going to happen it will take the best part of a generation if it can be done at all.

I must admit I have my doubts it will succeed.

[leonardratso]

8 minutes ago, Plan-b said:

I remember Holset they had a good reputation. The whole onshoring thing in the west is going to take a very long time to regain and relearn the skills to make things and make them correctly. I think if its going to happen it will take the best part of a generation if it can be done at all.

I must admit I have my doubts it will succeed.

hehe, yeah, family and everyone we knews cars all had brand new expensive turbochargers/fan drives/exhaust manifolds/break disks/drums and any other part that could be lifted or fabricated on night shift.
Got to agree though, all those skills and reputations for excellence and quality - all down the shitter, like sheffield steel/stainless steel etc etc etc. Cant see them coming back too quickly like you said, if at all.

Edited June 14, 2023 by leonardratso

[CannonFodder]

Peacetime generals arent suited for war.

Equally war time generals are not suited for peace

Lets take Patton - americas best ww2 general. He just couldnt be around in peace time

[King Penda]

5 minutes ago, CannonFodder said:

Peacetime generals arent suited for war.

Equally war time generals are not suited for peace

Lets take Patton - americas best ww2 general. He just couldnt be around in peace time

What a lad 

[Plan-b]

7 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

hehe, yeah, family and everyone we knews cars all had brand new expensive turbochargers/fan drives/exhaust manifolds/break disks/drums and any other part that could be lifted or fabricated on night shift.
Got to agree though, all those skills and reputations for excellence and quality - all down the shitter, like sheffield steel/stainless steel etc etc etc. Cant see them coming back too quickly like you said, if at all.

We do have a few remnants of past UK engineering prowess such as the 200 year old Forgemasters in Sheffield I think they are about the best there is in specialist castings but are owned by the MOD or something like that.

 

[JoeDavola]

1 hour ago, leonardratso said:

you eventually end up with a hollowed out company with no discernible skills who has to outsource everything

This * 100.

I actually wonder is that the long term plan of the new c-suite management - have contractors instead of permie staff doing the IT engineering work and a small number of well paid wimmin manager types.

I can see the hollowing out happening slowly already - more and more projects are missing deadlines in a big way, projects failing completely and haivng to be re-done, or going live and then realizing they didn't analyse the problem right and there's huge rewrites needed right away.... and the thing I mentioned a while back where one of these new folk sat and chaired a meeting where some consulant was explaining the architectural processes you'd need to build massive complex distributed enterprise level software, think the next Netflix or Amazon....

.....except no one in the company has the skills to do that nor is there going to be much need. And the senior management ones they're hiring might like to throw out the buzzwords, but they've no experience of that either. No real engineering experience - they couldn't sit down and actually make any of this shit work. And they're only hiring grads now for the engineering jobs (and grads that didn't even do a years placement so 0 previous work experience) with no seniors to train them up. The only grad who has had decent training is the one who I took under my wing, and I'm not claiming to be a wizard, just someone who's been doing engineering long enough to be a realist about what works in the long term.

But a bunch of people think they tell a bunch of other people that we need to do <the new tech thing> (without having the skills themselves) they just hope if they say it often enough someone in the org will suddenly have the skills to do it - despire the two blokes that I know of that did have the skills having left last year for 50+% pay raises after almost 20 years each of no promotions.

I think what I'm seeing here might be what's caled a "cargo cult"?

Edited June 14, 2023 by JoeDavola

[CannonFodder]

14 minutes ago, King Penda said:

What a lad 

I suppose he could look at reforming UC

[Yadda yadda yadda]

1 hour ago, JoeDavola said:

Yes.

I've seen people luck into great jobs who clearly haven't been stressed, and I can see others who have stressed into premature old age for very little reward.

You get a sixth sense for this stuff. Like the bloke in my place who has hired these women, I can tell he's stressed to fuck. Aged 10 years in the last 2 the bags under his eyes have bags.

And as others have said in the world of engineering skillsets that can take years to build up can go out of fashion very quickly. Which is maybe why the smart people move to management asap.

He is stressed because he is hiring fit birds rather than people who can do the work. Stupid bastard.

I remember when I started out there was a woman who got promoted rapidly because a director was banging her as his bit on the side. 15-20 years ago they didn't even think of trying to keep it a secret. If you're going down the route of hiring for looks at least make sure you get a ride out of it.

[JoeDavola]

Just now, Yadda yadda yadda said:

He is stressed because he is hiring fit birds rather than people who can do the work. Stupid bastard.

Yep. Even the grads are mostly burds.

The blokes skin is melting off his face with the stress. I know it when I see it.

Hope it's all worth it in the end.

[King Penda]

4 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

This * 100.

I actually wonder is that the long term plan of the new c-suite management - have contractors instead of permie staff doing the IT engineering work and a small number of well paid wimmin manager types.

I can see the hollowing out happening slowly already - more and more projects are missing deadlines in a big way, projects failing completely and haivng to be re-done, or going live and then realizing they didn't analyse the problem right and there's huge rewrites needed right away.... and the thing I mentioned a few weeks back where one of these wimmin sat and chaired a meeting where some consulant was explaining the architectural processes you'd need to build massive complex distributed enterprise level software, think the next Netflix or Amazon....

.....except no one in the company has the skills to do that nor is there going to be much need. And the senior management ones they're hiring might like to throw out the buzzwords, but they've no experience of that either. No real engineering experience - they couldn't sit down and actually make any of this shit work. And they're only hiring grads now for the engineering jobs (and grads that didn't even do a years placement so 0 previous work experience) with no seniors to train them up. The only grad who has had decent training is the one who I took under my wing, and I'm not claiming to be a wizard, just someone who's been doing engineering long enough to be a realist about what works in the long term.

But a bunch of people think they tell a bunch of other people that we need to do <the new tech thing> (without having the skills themselves) they just hope if they say it often enough someone in the org will suddenly have the skills to do it - despire the two blokes that I know of that did have the skills having left last year for 50+% pay raises after almost 20 years each of being kept at the lowest rank.

They're forming a working group about <the new thing>, how to establish best working practices, and asking for people from various teams and my boss has sent the two grads, one of which has yet to deliver anything at all and has 0 work experience before joining us. I'm guessing my boss knows its bullshit and doesn't want to waste the older folks time.

I think what I'm seeing here might be what's caled a "cargo cult"?

I’m aready sick to death of women Supervisors and deputy managers and managers . They all seem to get off on lambasting men . I got my arse chewed this morning by a collective of the manager and deputy manager . It was probably in response to my taking the piss Tuesday night the lift had broken and the engineers were there I was seconded to take the residents up in the lift .so I’m up a down in the lift because no fucker on dayshift dare go in it in case it breaks down .even nightshift we’re wankers .anyway once they were all upstairs we had handover  and the dayshift supervisor walked in and said I’d abandoned the residents to wander the corridors .and it was not on .I pointed out her lot were taking them out of the lifts has none had the nerve to go in the lifts then I pointed out I was not paid until 20.00 hours .I suspect the fact I gave it them back for my arse chewing this morning .

[JoeDavola]

4 minutes ago, King Penda said:

I’m aready sick to death of women Supervisors and deputy managers and managers . They all seem to get off on lambasting men

Well this is the problem once the amount of a certain kind of wimmin in management hits an inflection point - you end up with actual sexism, targeted at men. There's a reason I called it a 'caste' system a few posts ago, thats what its starting to feel like.

With the cliques that form it does feel like the social dynamics of high school have returned - but then again did they ever really go away.

Edited June 14, 2023 by JoeDavola

[leonardratso]

1 minute ago, JoeDavola said:

Well this is the problem once the amount of a certain kind of wimmin in management hits an inflection point - you end up with actual sexism, targeted at men.

With the cliques that form it does feel like the social dynamics of high school have returned - but then again did they ever really go away.

Ah dont worry about it joe, they are all bitches and will fall out and destroy each other with slander and gossip and maybe even a good old bitch fight.

[JoeDavola]

6 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

Ah dont worry about it joe, they are all bitches and will fall out and destroy each other with slander and gossip and maybe even a good old bitch fight.

Well the advantage to being a nobody in the place is that I'm mostly shielded from all of the politics and back stabbing and the like! Thankfully most of the people I work directly with are decent.

[Paulie]

15 hours ago, headrow said:

Shell PLC (LSE:SHEL, NYSE:SHEL) kicks off the day with an update ahead of its Capital Markets Day and it looks like good news for shareholders.

The oil major will raise dividends and boost share buybacks as it aims to deliver more value with less emissions alongside increased returns for shareholders.

“Performance, discipline, and simplification will be our guiding principles as we allocate capital to enhance shareholder distributions, while enabling the energy transition,” said Shell Chief Executive Officer, Wael Sawan.

Shell said shareholder distributions would increase to 30-40% of cash flow from operations through the cycle from 20-30% before by a combination of dividends and buybacks.

Shell will raise the dividend by 15% effective from the second quarter 2023 and start share buybacks of at least US$5bn for the second half of 2023.

Capital spending is set to fall to US$22-25bn per year for 2024 and 2025 with annual operating cost structurally reduced by US$2-3 billion by the end 2025.

The FTSE 100-listed firm also plans to grow its Integrated Gas business and maintain leadership in the global liquefied natural gas market and extend its position in Upstream to achieve cash flow longevity by stabilising liquids production to 2030.

Shell reiterated commitment to climate targets, including net-zero emissions by 2050 aiming to achieve near-zero methane emissions by 2030 and eliminate routine flaring from its Upstream operations by 2025.

It plans to invest US$10-15bn across 2023 to 2025 to support the development of low-carbon energy solutions including biofuels, hydrogen, electric vehicle charging and carbon capture storage.

“We need to continue to create profitable business models that can be scaled at pace to truly impact the decarbonisation of the global energy system,” said Sawan.

Fact checking the day a la BBC Shell was up 0.37% which is OK, but hardly enough to pay for my Stella.

[Paulie]

12 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

VOD up 5%

 

 

I new I shoulda sold yesterday 

Fact check, Vodafone up 0.57%. And much higher earlier in the morning. You were better off not to sell yesterday.

[desertorchid]

3 hours ago, King Penda said:

What a lad 

Interesting life story. A full on army man whose views about Germans (respected them and thought many nazis should stay in power), Jews(unclean and safety hazard) and Russians (the real enemy) were labelled delusional towards the end of the war.

There is lasting controversy as to whether he was murdered. He was due to return to the US and 2 days before died in a car crash. There was concern he would run for presidency upon return.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_S._Patton

https://www.historynet.com/was-patton-murdered/

[wherebee]

Well, my portfolio continues to have all the energy of Boris's dick after a night on the town - the spirit is willing but the flesh is weak.  Still waiting for the miners to run, and the USD drop in value against the AUD is hitting my overall 'total'.  Dividends coming in June from BAT and SEDY which will help.  End of tax year in Oz this month, so I might sell some of the small losers to crystallise losses to set off against the gains elsewhere, then buy back in in July...

 

[montecristo]

7 hours ago, JoeDavola said:

The key is to figure out how to manage your own career well; but that involves finding a position with the right toil to reward ratio or to ensure you are working towards that. You will also have to become good at marketing yourself - everyone who aspries to any kind of career these days needs sales and networking skills.

Keeping your head down and working hard hoping someone else will notice is a very bad idea. Every quiet but hard working engineer type bloke I've known has had to fight like hell/beg for any promotions, and in several cases just leave. This is across both IT and civil engineering.

Hard work doesn't really mean shit if it doesn't come with a profile boost. You need to make sure that you are putting your effort into things that will enable you to raise your profile/status professionally.

I also think that the coporate/office world is increasingly moving into some kind of a caste system - if you are a good looking outgoing self-promoting woman you will be catapulted to a well paid management job far more quickly than if you are a bloke.

I cannot believe what I'm seeing in my company's recent hires, women with very little actual technical experience being hired at higher levels than all the senior tech blokes with 20, 30, 40 years in the indsutry behind them - they're all good looking so maybe the bloke hiring them just wants good looking young-ish women around him!

But the latest one hired has photos on her LinkedIn that were obviously taken in a professional studio, with very professional lighting setup - its like something you'd see in a movie or on the cover of a magazine. It's so foreign to me that someone would actually do this, especially someone in tech but this is the name of the game these days.

I know for a fact these jobs don't involve actually doing the hard technical work, they just have meetings with a contractor we're using where some faceless nerd is doing the development probably on about £30-40K grinding it out trying to get a bunch of tech to work.

In my team I found out recently that some of the tricker cloud work is being carried out remotely by some (well qualified) Indian bloke, no attempt even to pay to train us up in the stuff, again some faceless Indian nerd does it offsite now.

I think we are in a new world where image is more important than ever; if you are not the sort that is an outgoing and engaging heavily with LinkedIn and is accepted as 'management class' the like it's more likely that any attempt to grind hard and 'work' your way into a more senior job will be fruitless and will just end up you toiling to help someone else's career.

A few blokes with deep technical knowledge spanning 20 years a piece, but who looked like your average scruffy ropey looking engineers, moved on recently with no attempt at all to keep them. They spent years toiling in difficult technical work and were offered less reward over 20 years than the woman who has been promoted was offered in 18 months. Luckily for the blokes there happened to be a good job market for their particular skills and they got pay rises of 50%+, but if they'd stayed they would most likey have spent another 20 years grinding and being expected to 'know their place'.

So I'm not saying don't work hard, I'm saying make sure you're doing the right work and be realistic as to whether you're on a path and in a company where that hard work will pay off, rather tha being somebody's fool for not a bean extra.

or just go contracting  no office politics and with your skills 100k a year.  Being a single man you could early retire in your 40s. 

But you're right.  I'm dealing with more and more project managers for example that have zero technical knowledge.  I just keep my head down, do the work and invoice.  I've been doing the sums and hopefully can put my feet up in 4 years.

[montecristo]

7 hours ago, onlyme said:

Also luck.

Need to be in the right sector at the right time, or at least not in the wrong sector at the wrong time.

Yes.  I got into IT in the 90s with fuck all qualifications as a teenager.  Just had the knack for it and qualifications did not matter back then, it was a gold rush.

[DurhamBorn]

5 hours ago, wherebee said:

Well, my portfolio continues to have all the energy of Boris's dick after a night on the town - the spirit is willing but the flesh is weak.  Still waiting for the miners to run, and the USD drop in value against the AUD is hitting my overall 'total'.  Dividends coming in June from BAT and SEDY which will help.  End of tax year in Oz this month, so I might sell some of the small losers to crystallise losses to set off against the gains elsewhere, then buy back in in July...

 

I have been flatlining for a year it seems,but im quite happy for it to continue because very large divis are landing regular,big ones from SEDY and TEF due,and i have a few US stocks im buying at the minute.Verizon,Walgreens,waiting on International Paper etc so id rather they stay down or get cheaper.Iv also been adding Ashmore back,i sold a lot in the £2.60s,but think they might be close to a multi year run higher.

[wherebee]

17 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I have been flatlining for a year it seems,but im quite happy for it to continue because very large divis are landing regular,big ones from SEDY and TEF due,and i have a few US stocks im buying at the minute.Verizon,Walgreens,waiting on International Paper etc so id rather they stay down or get cheaper.Iv also been adding Ashmore back,i sold a lot in the £2.60s,but think they might be close to a multi year run higher.

I sold Ashmore at 2.83

I don't have floating cash to put into them - and if I did, I'd rather pick up cheap BAT for dividends for 20 years...

[JoeDavola]

4 hours ago, montecristo said:

or just go contracting  no office politics and with your skills 100k a year.  Being a single man you could early retire in your 40s. 

But you're right.  I'm dealing with more and more project managers for example that have zero technical knowledge.  I just keep my head down, do the work and invoice.  I've been doing the sums and hopefully can put my feet up in 4 years.

Yes the only upside of the ever increasing bullshitting in coporate life is that if you should find yourself eventually at a point where there's few people who can actually do the work left, and you're one of them, you should be able to command a very healthy daily rate if you're brave enough to quit the permie job.

Edited June 15, 2023 by JoeDavola