Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 6)

[janch]

Shaun Richards on the money today.........he bangs on a lot about the different inflation measures especially since RPI includes housing costs.  This caught my eye (my bold):

we have an inflation measure ( RPI) which includes them and thus is by far the best inflation measure we have right now? As of the last update it was running at an annual rate of 53.9%

https://notayesmanseconomics.wordpress.com/

PS Some of the comments are good too most days.

[janch]

BRLA is on a tear today so I was considering selling now and buying back later as the rise could be more than the divi (it goes ex-divi tomorrow) but it's not really worth it for me when I factor in buy/sell costs. 

Since it seems to bounce around a bit it might be worth it for some with larger holdings (not financial advice etc etc)

[stockton]

I know its only a tiny company but I seen this today and it reminded me how good this thread is at identifying future events.

https://www.hl.co.uk/feeds/apps/sharecast?id=33633771

"Live Company announced a collaboration with Veeps on Wednesday, to facilitate the live streaming of its Madrid KPOP LUX concert."

[Sugarlips]

1 hour ago, nirvana said:

some markets just got a massive erection in the last hour.....why? CPLie

Fake and gay?

Suits me today!

 

 

[geordie_lurch]

Just under 2 mins of Lisa Nandy making you want to smash whatever device you watch this on

 

[AlfredTheLittle]

2 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

Just under 2 mins of Lisa Nandy making you want to smash whatever device you watch this on

 

Won't make much difference, just the interest is unaffordable anyway, and will be more so if labour introduce mad schemes like this

[DurhamBorn]

Ashmore up a lot today,lots of false dawns,but if dollar falls against EMs as im expecting it will be rocket fuel to EM bonds who leverage it,and Ashmore leverage them.Ignore Hunt pension funds,get your assets with Ashmore so you can ride the EM currency/bond wave, (and send me the divis),EM cycle should last several years.We have a man on the ground @nirvana or more,on a bike.

 

[nirvana]

4 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

.We have a man on the ground @nirvana or more,on a bike.

lol I sold the bike to a geezer in Hanoi.....now I'm stuck in Kuala Lumpur cos my passport expires in less than 6 months......suddenly I'm pissed off and bored with all this travelling.....I want my bed back in france and that nice bird on a bike with a tasty baguette

skittles joke....

 

 

[AWW]

On 11/07/2023 at 14:41, Long time lurking said:

Someone  overlaid LTN`s in London onto a map then overlaid ULEZ cameras onto the same map it`s clear LTNS are all about funnelling traffic onto the roads with ULEZ cameras

It`s all about money nothing else ,the utopia for every government would be for every person to spend every penny they earn and borrow even more

Indeed it is all about money, but the reason there are no ULEZ cameras in the LTNs is that there isn't much in the way of traffic infrastructure on them - they're usually residential back roads. I went to a public consultation about cycling infrastructure and asked if the ULEZ extension meant blanket cams - a roundabout way of seeing how easy it will be to drive around the ULEZ extension without having to pay. The planning guy said they only really site the cameras at major junctions, as they need a power supply and a pole, so it's cheaper to put them on traffic lights.

[nirvana]

1 hour ago, Castlevania said:

Haven’t you got better things to do?

like what? more fekkin travelling??? I gave up smoking decades ago, booze a while ago and women too......I don't even feel like having a wank nowadays......I think I'm knackered boss lol

[AWW]

22 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

Just under 2 mins of Lisa Nandy making you want to smash whatever device you watch this on

 

They can say what they like while they're in opposition. That's why they're promising to help renters, homeowners, migrants and any other group there might be a vote in. I mean, listen to her. She sounds thick as fuck, because she is.

 

[AWW]

11 minutes ago, nirvana said:

stuck in Kuala Lumpur

Christ, that's bad luck. KL is fucking dull. Shoulda stayed in Hanoi.

[Calcutta]

Does the guy on the moped who looks like Borat still hang around Pudu bus station trying to get people to come to his hostel?

[Bobthebuilder]

32 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Ashmore up a lot today,lots of false dawns,but if dollar falls against EMs as im expecting it will be rocket fuel to EM bonds who leverage it,and Ashmore leverage them.Ignore Hunt pension funds,get your assets with Ashmore so you can ride the EM currency/bond wave, (and send me the divis),EM cycle should last several years.We have a man on the ground @nirvana or more,on a bike.

 

I doubled my Ashmore holding at 195 recently, decent divi on them also.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

42 minutes ago, AWW said:

Indeed it is all about money, but the reason there are no ULEZ cameras in the LTNs is that there isn't much in the way of traffic infrastructure on them - they're usually residential back roads. I went to a public consultation about cycling infrastructure and asked if the ULEZ extension meant blanket cams - a roundabout way of seeing how easy it will be to drive around the ULEZ extension without having to pay. The planning guy said they only really site the cameras at major junctions, as they need a power supply and a pole, so it's cheaper to put them on traffic lights.

Yep, a short dash to the high street is off grid for ULEZ, so long as you know where to park.

[JoeDavola]

6 hours ago, Jay said:

Actually if you added buy bat in 5 ladders of say 10% intervals with say 15 to20% of your wealth and a similar amount in inflation linked bonds then that would be great suggestion

Do you have a link to what this 'ladder' thing means?

6 hours ago, Jay said:

from a dude on the internet who lives in oz to a bloke who lives in ni…given the Green agenda never the Twain shall meet..

Aye given I've not met any of the Belfast folk on here it would be funny if the one I did meet happened to reside on the other side of the world!

 

 

[JoeDavola]

4 hours ago, Stuey said:

Buy a House. 

Saves a decent yield on rental outgoings 

What you did, i.e. buy the smallest house you'd be happy with, is a wise move.

I'm still in the mindset of going all-in on more house than I need, which is probably a bad idea. Should snap up a small place from a distressed BTL-er cash, and start move the rest into S&S ISA's.

[Stuey]

9 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

What you did, i.e. buy the smallest house you'd be happy with, is a wise move.

I'm still in the mindset of going all-in on more house than I need, which is probably a bad idea. Should snap up a small place from a distressed BTL-er cash, and start move the rest into S&S ISA's.

Get a lodger for £7.5k/year. I'm sure @nirvana could cover that with his pension...

[JoeDavola]

6 hours ago, Starsend said:

What are your savings invested in?

There's a lot of stuff that yields in excess of 7%.

I wasn't aware that there was much reliable stuff that does in terms of divi's. I know equities return that over the long term.

As for what I'm in, I haven't added it all up recently, but its:

- Help to buy ISA maxxed out so will get an extra 25% (3K) on that when I buy a house

- Premium bonds maxxed out - not getting a great return so should really move them elsewhere

- Invested £9K in a share scheme which paid me back £23K last week good return for only 3 years, now need to move that into something else. Only good investment decision I've ever made!

- £30K in Vanguard FTSE trackers - of course the year I put £20K in was the year it fucking dropped 2%. 20K in an ISA and 10K in two of those lifetime isa things which in retrospect was probably a mistake.

- a load of cash sitting in a couple of savings accounts getting about 4%

EDIT: And another 20K cash in a cash isa from the last financial year that ive yet to move into stocks

What service do most of you lot use to buy and sell shares?

Edited July 12, 2023 by JoeDavola

[Bobthebuilder]

10 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

What you did, i.e. buy the smallest house you'd be happy with, is a wise move.

I'm still in the mindset of going all-in on more house than I need, which is probably a bad idea. Should snap up a small place from a distressed BTL-er cash, and start move the rest into S&S ISA's.

Its so easy to over look simple things in life that can make a huge difference. As you say a small place that suits your needs debt free, then a nice largish stocks and shares Isa, as I only found out recently all divi income from the shares ISA is tax free.

Ladders mean buying stock in smaller chunks rather than one big purchase, eg buy BATS at £26 then buy more if it falls to £25, and so on, getting an average rather than a single entry point.

[JoeDavola]

1 minute ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Ladders mean buying stock in smaller chunks rather than one big purchase, eg buy BATS at £26 then buy more if it falls to £25, and so on, getting an average rather than a single entry point.

Oh similar to 'dollar cost averaging' as I heard it described years ago.

[Wight Flight]

18 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

Oh similar to 'dollar cost averaging' as I heard it described years ago.

Pound cost averaging at my school.

[BurntBread]

28 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

Oh similar to 'dollar cost averaging' as I heard it described years ago.

Similar, but not the same. The idea is you set decreasing price-points in advance, and only buy when (or if) each is hit. I think DB usually chooses three, spaced at 8%. E.g. if VOD were at £1, and that is the first "ladder point", he would buy one third of what he wants, then the next third if it falls to 92p, then the last third at 84p (purely hypothetical example). You might never buy all the "ladders" if the price starts going up early.

I have to say you would need to be pretty flipping good to have a clear view on those price points, so I have never precisely done that. Instead, I take a cue from this thread about what may be good value, have a look at the financials, perhaps buy some, and then have another look if the price falls ten percent or so. However, there is nothing stopping you (or me) being more disciplined.

Edited July 12, 2023 by BurntBread
.

[Noallegiance]

6 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I have done very little work on currency lately as im pretty much positioned where i want to be.However,i think its likely the dollar will decline against EM currencies over the next several years,unless there is a BK,then it would spike.It will likely rise flatline against other western currencies.I think EM bond markets will start to rise very soon then their currencies,then equities.

What stops you from going full DH and expecting a full-on bust soon?

[DurhamBorn]

8 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

What stops you from going full DH and expecting a full-on bust soon?

Because i have no idea how the terrible policies in the UK and other western countries will play out in EMs.There are multitudes of investments in EMs on PEs of 7,with growing cash flows.Most investments have already had a bust.The only question is if the likes of the biggest rubber company in the world is cut in half from a PE of 7 if Amazon goes down 75%.

I see lots of value around the world in areas where their societies are moving forward,not importing millions of stabby Africans.