Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 6)

[King Penda]

9 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

This is good news

It’s just getting better isn’t it .my mate in Telford is a bit panicked the kids place he is at (after he was made redundant 3 months ago). Has had surveyers round measuring up the huge garden grounds and outbuildings.he is like what do you think I’m like selling it for buildings on. He was like fuck they have aready shut 3 down locally 

[Castlevania]

3 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

I think we're getting to pick your posion time and cash sjut isn't really an option over a timeframe beyond 6 months due to inflation.

We've moved our BATs up,EM's building nicely.We sold BT circa 150(and rolls too) and that was the last of our UK centric stocks earnings wise.

I was wodnering the otehr day,who's buiyng things like M&S at the mintue .......and why??????what coudl be the thesis there?

BATs FCF circa £6bn+ over last 4 years

There's no doubt they need to chip away at it but they have the room to do so.

Despite their detbs I personally consdier them way more solvent than the UK govt andntherefore a better risk.I'd be pretty happy if they halved the divi for a few years tbh if it helps.

https://www.bat.com/group/sites/uk__9tvmh3.nsf/vwPagesWebLive/DO9TVMUH

You sold your M&S shares? 

[sancho panza]

@DurhamBorn no pressure but we look like we're approachign a historical inflexion point on the dollar.given your previous form on the matter(particularly that top in sept/Oct 22) have you got a take on where it going here? no pressure.Id be interested if you have a view.

it defo seems to be weakening-like dah!!!- but have you a downside target or do you think it'll bounce here.Realise it's a difficult call and you may have done now workk on it but I'd be interested in your view.

Personally I think we're headed down more but that's hunch rather than rationale.

[Calcutta]

12 hours ago, working woman said:

It is sad to think many families renting, who have kids are going to find themselves homeless for a while.
Council's putting them into a hotel is grim and stressful.

The Govt. / Local Councils should do a deal with static caravan holiday parks. Keep the swimming pool and play areas open and the kids would think they were on a permanent holiday. Takes pressure off the families. If the Govt. can do deals with whole hotels to house people, then they can do it for homeless families.  Whilst a great temporary solution, for many it may end up as permanent.

There are 1000's of these caravans up and down the country. Everytime I am on a motorway I see several heading off to somewhere. 

It's called a trailer park. councils won't give them permission to accept benefits, or be used residentially in this country, because the people who work at the council are balls deep in the BTL market and they don't want renter scum having any better options.

Same goes for the shipping container homes. Maybe theres a few little vanity projects going on but I know from personal experience that local councils will reject the idea, and any idea that threatens the value of the property portfolios.

 

[Long time lurking]

33 minutes ago, Transistor Man said:

I've read something on the Chinese reactor now -- I should have done that before. Interesting. They are pushing hard. Nickel-based superalloy. Advanced stuff. This was something that was holding them back from being able to produce a high performance jet engine domestically. 

 

It will interesting to see what if any part Russia have played in that, as they are said to be worlds ahead in that field ,they have said many times the US have their materials but have yet to figured out what it is and how to make it ,the US have never denied it either 

From what i have read regarding molten salt reactors it was mostly how corrosive it was ,not so much high temps although i would suspect that plays a part as well, when combined

Edited July 12, 2023 by Long time lurking

[sancho panza]

8 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

You sold your M&S shares? 

bougth,wrote some calls,sold 2016/17.

relieved to see them go.I wodner if there's anyone held from £5?

My Mum still goes occasioanlly and tells me it's full of old people(shes 76)-'they're customer base is dying' she always says without a hint of irony.

Edited July 12, 2023 by sancho panza

[Jay]

4 minutes ago, wherebee said:

Then go set up an investment account and buy a shitload of BAT.  You'll get dividends, and if you need to buy a house you sell the shares...

Not investment advice, etc etc etc

Actually if you added buy bat in 5 ladders of say 10% intervals with say 15 to20% of your wealth and a similar amount in inflation linked bonds then that would be great suggestion from a dude on the internet who lives in oz to a bloke who lives in ni…given the Green agenda never the Twain shall meet..

[JMD]

3 hours ago, Castlevania said:

Surely someone has to return the dinghy to France?

Perhaps he was keeping the dingy as a trophy souvenir...  or maybe planning to use it as a legacy gift for (his) future generations.

Edited July 12, 2023 by JMD

[Castlevania]

3 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

bougth,wrote some calls,sold 2016/17.

relieved to see them go.I wodner if there's anyone held from £5?

My Mum still goes occasioanlly and tells me it's full of old people(shes 76)-'they're customer base is dying' she always says without a hint of irony.

Traitor

[Starsend]

1 hour ago, JoeDavola said:

If I could get 9% on my savings I'd never need to even bother about buying a fucking house. Could just rent wherever I wanted to live, in whatever country.

What are your savings invested in?

There's a lot of stuff that yields in excess of 7%. I still hold a lot of cash myself, waiting for this bloody crash that may or may not happen. I'm thinking of halving the cash I have and bunging it into what I see as fairly safe, non-UK, steady stuff. Stuff like Enterprise Product Partners, pays 7.5% and you're out of GBP. I think GBP is going to get fucking battered over the next couple of years, EUR as well, USD might be a basket case but it's probably still the strongest.

You don't want all your money in GBP cash.

[desertorchid]

1 hour ago, JoeDavola said:

If I could get 9% on my savings I'd never need to even bother about buying a fucking house. Could just rent wherever I wanted to live, in whatever country.

Why dont you then?

[Plan-b]

1 hour ago, JoeDavola said:

If I could get 9% on my savings I'd never need to even bother about buying a fucking house. Could just rent wherever I wanted to live, in whatever country.

Indeed why not, for those in the position to do so become a PT and never pay any tax again. Travel around rent and see places.

[JMD]

4 hours ago, Pip321 said:

Starting to see more and more immigrant crime where the victim is also an immigrant.

There was one particularly awful crime which I won’t detail because I just think karma would kick me in the nuts for using it as an example to make a point…..but the victims mother also had broken East European accent but no reference to origin.

I also recall a while ago highlighting a housing shortage issue on the BBC website where the complainant who was having to wait for a house was again East European. Like me going to Portugal and then complaining they won’t house me???🤷🏻‍♂️

I wonder if soon it will get so bad in the UK that the immigrants will start complaining about the immigration policy and it’s impact on their own free services. Or better still they will stop seeing the UK as a safe place to live and dinghy their way to somewhere else?

But reports of aberrant and violent immigrant behaviour (in this country and across Europe) have been 'in plain sight' for anyone interested in knowing about these things.

In fact back in the late 90s was the first example I became aware of - that of Somali immigrant criminal gangs in London. They were very violent but to even comment about the problem - was of course - considered racism.

The authorities knew what was happening and the full scope of it. I expect it's why Merkel and Cameron  gave their independent speeches in 2010/11 about multi-culturalism having failed. Of course they did nothing about the growing problems - BUT proves they were far from oblivious. 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2010/oct/17/angela-merkel-german-multiculturalism-failed

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2011/feb/05/david-cameron-attack-multiculturalism-coalition

 

 

Edited July 12, 2023 by JMD

[JMD]

4 hours ago, Heart's Ease said:

Lidl and Aldi Sud in Bavaria also all covered in 2018 (or previously). They have a little panel by the door showing you the current generation information.

I believe they are now supplementing their in-store energy-tech with wood burning stoves!  ...The Germans always like to be at least one-GOOSE-step ahead of the game!!

Edited July 12, 2023 by JMD

[Lightly Toasted]

3 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

China hasn’t even got the production process to compete with current chip technology architecture. Standard Chinese propaganda.

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2023/04/28/chinas-smic-may-struggle-to-make-cutting-edge-chips-competitively.html

The article says they won't be able to produce cheaply and at scale, but how many and how cheaply would they need to produce, for [quasi] military use?

 

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

@DurhamBorn no pressure but we look like we're approachign a historical inflexion point on the dollar.given your previous form on the matter(particularly that top in sept/Oct 22) have you got a take on where it going here? no pressure.Id be interested if you have a view.

it defo seems to be weakening-like dah!!!- but have you a downside target or do you think it'll bounce here.Realise it's a difficult call and you may have done now workk on it but I'd be interested in your view.

Personally I think we're headed down more but that's hunch rather than rationale.

I have done very little work on currency lately as im pretty much positioned where i want to be.However,i think its likely the dollar will decline against EM currencies over the next several years,unless there is a BK,then it would spike.It will likely rise flatline against other western currencies.I think EM bond markets will start to rise very soon then their currencies,then equities.

[Stuey]

1 hour ago, Starsend said:

 

There's a lot of stuff that yields in excess of 7%. I still hold a lot of cash myself, waiting for this bloody crash that may or may not happen. I'm thinking of halving the cash I have and bunging it into what I see as fairly safe

Buy a House. 

Saves a decent yield on rental outgoings 

[Starsend]

14 minutes ago, Stuey said:

Buy a House. 

Saves a decent yield on rental outgoings 

Paid for house is one of the best investments you can make, already got that sorted though.

For Joe, I think the time to buy may be coming in the next couple of years - but in the meantime he could be getting some decent yields.

[Castlevania]

44 minutes ago, Stuey said:

Buy a House. 

Saves a decent yield on rental outgoings 

Yes. You also don’t pay tax on the imputed rent. 

30 minutes ago, Starsend said:

Paid for house is one of the best investments you can make, already got that sorted though.

For Joe, I think the time to buy may be coming in the next couple of years - but in the meantime he could be getting some decent yields.

Or he could be banging women in South East Asia

[nirvana]

some markets just got a massive erection in the last hour.....why? CPLie

[Jay]

13 minutes ago, nirvana said:

some markets just got a massive erection in the last hour.....why? CPLie

Us cpi rose less than expected..marginally..dollar sell off..

[Loki]

19 minutes ago, nirvana said:

some markets just got a massive erection in the last hour.....why? CPLie

GET BACK IN YOUR BOX BOBO 

[nirvana]

10 minutes ago, Loki said:

GET BACK IN YOUR BOX BOBO 

stoppit you're putting me off my stride....

 

[Loki]

Just now, nirvana said:

stoppit you're putting me off my stride....

 

 

[Castlevania]

43 minutes ago, nirvana said:

some markets just got a massive erection in the last hour.....why? CPLie

Haven’t you got better things to do?