Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 8)

[spygirl]

56 minutes ago, One percent said:

@spygirl is this you?   

Nah, just my influence.....

iirc sanco is a paramedic. he may be typing this out as hes got one hand pumping an OAP.

 

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, M S E Refugee said:

I think anyone who doesn't access their Pension at 55 and soon to be 57, is taking a massive gamble.

You could see the Government harmonising the age you can take your work/private pension with the old age pension.

I dont think they will,but they might reduce it to 8 years before.They need to keep the carrots in place so workers keep buying gilts for them to inflate away.They have always given 10 years notice they are increasing it.HL etc could of wrote into their SIPPs small print that means you had protected rights and could still access at 55,but for some reason they dont,likely because it suits them to have higher balances for longer.

I worked it out a few years ago workers could retire on a full state pension at 54 if they scrapped working age welfare,51 if they scrapped the public sector pension sub.

The problem in this country is people retiring on bennies in their 20s,but as usual they wont tackle it.I can access my SIPP in 2 years and will,but for lump sums,not full drawdown.With eyes on every budget like a hawk.

Incredible once again the theft going on from private to public sector.

[Long time lurking]

5 hours ago, headrow said:

Bailed on Fres this morning , a month ago I was £2.5k down on them , I've got out this morning with £600 profit.

 

I also tagged the 3 top fallers in the ftse100 , Phoenix , Aviva and Lloyds as they all went ex div. The next 2 months are my best months of the year for divis coming through.

Lloyds are sacking their risk management team as it`s reckoned they are holding the company back 

 

[JoeDavola]

53 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I retired in my 40s (ok 49) ,and took 6 years off from 29 to 35.I have never been a 40% taxpayer.Anyone can do it,but you need to understand the system early,dont chase cars,holidays etc and have the right mindset.If i was starting now i would buy a 3 bed after saving like crazy at parents and rent two rooms out to lodgers.That would cover bills and a third to half the morgage.Then id save while still enjoying life into blue chip divi payers and compound.

Then again im crazy.In my 6 year sabbatical i used to nail single mothers off Plentyoffish to get my tax back they were getting in bennies  .I even kept a list of council tax i had paid and intended to rob the council somehow to get it back.I cracked that though with my lass having a council pension.

You need to go to Thailand Joe,get yourself a month there in September to Pattaya,it will be the best thing you ever do.

I actually like to work, just not in the conditions of most modern workplaces amd full time employment.

Eight hours in an office plus a 45 min commute at either end 5 days a week for 40+ years is no way to live if you can avoid it - especially since offices seem less fun than they used to be, less banter and socialising … HR types have too much power everyone’s too paranoid to say anything that might offend.

About 15-20 hours a week of actual get-yer-head-down proper hard work feels about right to me.

In this respect I guess I’ve been semi retired since my late 20’s but yeah I should have been wiser with my money in case I lose this job and have to get a real one again.

And your right I need to get my arse over to Thailand - will make for a few interesting posts here if nowt else.

[crashmonitor]

ECB have held," if current trends continue it will be appropriate to ease". No date specified.

[Sasquatch]

2 hours ago, M S E Refugee said:

I think anyone who doesn't access their Pension at 55 and soon to be 57, is taking a massive gamble.

You could see the Government harmonising the age you can take your work/private pension with the old age pension.

Will be taking my 25% lump sum next April or perhaps 12 months later at the very latest.

I concur with your concerns. I think we will see a government in a panic in the reasonably near future. Anyone with private 'wealth' will be a target, however unfair it may seem.

[Long time lurking]

4 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

The US needs a weaker dollar IMO, so will want to go first (and force everyone else to wait)

The jaw-boneing by the Fed etc getting cuts priced out by markets makes total sense as a tactic to pressure other CBs to hold. The Fed will want shock and awe on their side when they do cut, rather than it having been priced in ahead of time.

Interesting related tweet:

 

Bond markets are setting rates now not the FED ,but it`s not out of the question they can`t be influenced ,but it took 24% prime dealer bids to keep the lid on yesterdays 10y 

Things are getting harder by the month as demand decreases 

If they cut it will be September and November purely for political reasons ,but my tinfoil hat is saying the OMG expose video released yesterday was all about trying to stop that happening 

As the year drags on interest rates become politically motivated ,nothing from a fiscal point of view will matter  

[spygirl]

6 minutes ago, Sasquatch said:

Will be taking my 25% lump sum next April or perhaps 12 months later at the very latest.

I concur with your concerns. I think we will see a government in a panic in the reasonably near future. Anyone with private 'wealth' will be a target, however unfair it may seem.

I think theres some level of panic in  the Treasury at the mo.

See take this job and shove it thread.

Since ~2005ish youve seen the number of people making up the top ~25% of tax payers shrink at a rapid rate.

The rate at which the productive/tax paying people have andremain taking early is getting eye brow raising.

Unless UKGOV broadens tax take then theres a risk that a large number of workers could just fuck off.

 

 

[One percent]

14 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

I actually like to work, just not in the conditions of most modern workplaces amd full time employment.

Eight hours in an office plus a 45 min commute at either end 5 days a week for 40+ years is no way to live if you can avoid it - especially since offices seem less fun than they used to be, less banter and socialising … HR types have too much power everyone’s too paranoid to say anything that might offend.

About 15-20 hours a week of actual get-yer-head-down proper hard work feels about right to me.

In this respect I guess I’ve been semi retired since my late 20’s but yeah I should have been wiser with my money in case I lose this job and have to get a real one again.

And your right I need to get my arse over to Thailand - will make for a few interesting posts here if nowt else.

You are very well positioned Joe. Moving forward, I would suggest buying somewhere and paying the mortgage down asap.  Then, it doesn’t matter if your job goes, you will only need to earn enough to pay utilities and food.  
 

anyhow, this is not financial advice as I don’t really have a clue.  

[One percent]

Just now, spygirl said:

I think theres some level of panic in  the Treasury at the mo.

See take this job and shove it thread.

Since ~2005ish youve seen the number of people making up the top ~25% of tax payers shrink at a rapid rate.

The rate at which the productive/tax paying people have andremain taking early is getting eye brow raising.

Unless UKGOV broadens tax take then theres a risk that a large number of workers could just fuck off.

 

 

Well, it’s a problem of government own making. You can’t suppress wages for 30 years and expect to still have a significant rump of well paid people to pay significant taxes.  They are complete and utter fools. 

[Joncrete Cungle]

15 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I dont think they will,but they might reduce it to 8 years before.They need to keep the carrots in place so workers keep buying gilts for them to inflate away.They have always given 10 years notice they are increasing it.HL etc could of wrote into their SIPPs small print that means you had protected rights and could still access at 55,but for some reason they dont,likely because it suits them to have higher balances for longer.

I worked it out a few years ago workers could retire on a full state pension at 54 if they scrapped working age welfare,51 if they scrapped the public sector pension sub.

The problem in this country is people retiring on bennies in their 20s,but as usual they wont tackle it.I can access my SIPP in 2 years and will,but for lump sums,not full drawdown.With eyes on every budget like a hawk.

Incredible once again the theft going on from private to public sector.

We are planning on using ISAS and LISAS to try and mitigate more SIPP moving of the goalposts. I guess the LISA penalty free access age will remain at 60 even when SIPP is older than 60.

Use the s&s ISAS divvies to coast in late 40's early 50's and SIPP everything above the tax free allowance / cut back on hours worked.

Pack up at 60 when LISA can be accessed and take tax free divvies from both ISAS and LISA. Take SIPP whenever access age is upto tax free allowance each year and forget state pension.

No doubt the bastards in Westminster will try and put a stop to it over the next couple of decades plus.c

 

[CannonFodder]

11 minutes ago, Joncrete Cungle said:

We are planning on using ISAS and LISAS to try and mitigate more SIPP moving of the goalposts. I guess the LISA penalty free access age will remain at 60 even when SIPP is older than 60.

Use the s&s ISAS divvies to coast in late 40's early 50's and SIPP everything above the tax free allowance / cut back on hours worked.

Pack up at 60 when LISA can be accessed and take tax free divvies from both ISAS and LISA. Take SIPP whenever access age is upto tax free allowance each year and forget state pension.

No doubt the bastards in Westminster will try and put a stop to it over the next couple of decades plus.c

 

They will stop most but not all 

There will always be routes left open for themselves, they just will be less visible to the masses

[onlyme]

2 hours ago, snaga said:

you are Sasha?

 

Was scratching my head for a while working out how energy prices were so cool in the data.

 

[Loki]

Just now, onlyme said:

Was scratching my head for a while working out how energy prices were so cool in the data.

 

I wonder if the big trading houses just have to show they've acted in the approved manner with the given data...hear no evil, see no evil, speak no evil, on with the melt up

[HousePriceMania]

46 minutes ago, crashmonitor said:

ECB have held," if current trends continue it will be appropriate to ease". No date specified.

The corollary of that is...

 

" if current trends changes it will be appropriate to tighten"

[Mandalorian]

6 hours ago, headrow said:

 

 

I also tagged the 3 top fallers in the ftse100 , Phoenix , Aviva and Lloyds as they all went ex div.

Trouble maker....

[JMD]

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

talkign of beautfiil things

Obviously all the NEST pension holders are looking forlornly on as their betters decided to offload at £10 in 2020 to help the drive to net zero.

if they move to the US it'll be £40 I suspect and therfore a tripple bagger for the basement dwelling community

You mention stock re-listings...

Recently I watched a Steven Bartlett podcast, only because I thought his guest looked interesting but unfortunately wasn't. Bartlett is on Dragons Den but more relevant is that he's apparently worth £100million+, and is a serial entrepreneur. Anyway he mentioned in the podcast that over the years he has had frequent meetings with investment bankers when discussing taking his investment projects public, and he remarked that the value the bankers estimate if company is listed in the US is usually 2-3 times that of a UK listing. 

[Alifelessbinary]

24 minutes ago, Joncrete Cungle said:

We are planning on using ISAS and LISAS to try and mitigate more SIPP moving of the goalposts. I guess the LISA penalty free access age will remain at 60 even when SIPP is older than 60.

Use the s&s ISAS divvies to coast in late 40's early 50's and SIPP everything above the tax free allowance / cut back on hours worked.

Pack up at 60 when LISA can be accessed and take tax free divvies from both ISAS and LISA. Take SIPP whenever access age is upto tax free allowance each year and forget state pension.

No doubt the bastards in Westminster will try and put a stop to it over the next couple of decades plus.c

 

I’ve been adopting the ISA approach for over 10 years now and have been making full transfers.

My concern is that they’ll adopt a life time limit and then use fiscal drag to get back the unpaid tax in the future (completely forgetting that I’ve already paid eye watering sums of tax before transferring to my ISA).

Im generally an optimist, but I do think a reckoning is coming . Unlike other periods of history we have no easy solutions like North Sea, public asset disposals, or privatisation to kick the can down the road.

Id rather see state subsidised government industry than pay huge swath of the working populace to stay at home and get depressed. 

We’ll happily send a young man to prison for £40k a year rather than teaching him to be a man in the army for the same price. 

From an investing point the world is a crazy price but I’ll continue to cost average into the markets as just about have faith that capitalism will still drive better growth than sitting on a huge pile of cash, although I am holding more of the stuff recently after losing my nerve.

 

[Harley]

3 hours ago, M S E Refugee said:

I think anyone who doesn't access their Pension at 55 and soon to be 57, is taking a massive gamble.

Agree about the risks.  I accessed it as soon as I could due to lack of trust.  25% and then later into drawdown, all done as tax efficiently as possible (which means smaller amounts over a longer time so start early).  Taking drawdown doesn't mean you need to spend it.....ISA's, etc.  Access/liquidity/security is one of the most important co-joined things for me.  Others are doing or about to do the same, all ex-high earners smelling the coffee and moving on.   

Edited April 11 by Harley

[snaga]

57 minutes ago, Sasquatch said:

Will be taking my 25% lump sum next April or perhaps 12 months later at the very latest.

I concur with your concerns. I think we will see a government in a panic in the reasonably near future. Anyone with private 'wealth' will be a target, however unfair it may seem.

but where do you put that 25%?

I can access mine now, but havn't as I'm already maximising family ISAs (which could also be targetted).  I could clear the mortgage, but I've got 30 months left fixed at 1.6% so not worth it. So for now leaving it in my SIPP seems like the best option.

[Mandalorian]

1 hour ago, spygirl said:

 he may be typing this out as hes got one hand pumping an OAP.

 

 

[Harley]

Ashmore finding support or just going to feck around some more like Aberdeen and co?

The investment managers, there are easier ways to make coin.  Presumably the div is to compensate for being jerked around.  Think we'll dump Aberdeen and stay out of the sector until some consistency takes hold.

[reformed nice guy]

1 hour ago, Lightscribe said:

How is stuey nowadays?

We went to the swimming at the weekend for the inflatables. He was pretty sullen. Even a hot chocolate afterwards with extra marshmallows wouldn't cheer him up.

He kept on muttering about a plateau.

[JMD]

2 hours ago, feed said:

Anecdotal and UK not US.  I was talking with a few acquaintances i have in the insurance industry over the Easter holiday.  And they were saying that the theft component for car cover isn't even close to high enough.  The 10% premium and 10% theft excess that an average £100k ungaraged vehicle in a city costs, is coming for more mundane vehicles.   

Or the companies are going to stop offering basic car insurance as a single product altogether.  It'll get bundled into profitable products.  Think complete cover house/life/car/accident bundles. 
 

Yes I think the large Insurance companies would rather 'smooth' premiums across all customers, however they are finding that this model no longer works in an increasingly diverse population. I believe they want to identify high risk customers and push those customer types onto specialist insurers. Thereby allowing them to lower their own generic premiums. 

The below article is an example of how the insurers are perhaps radically experimenting with their policy offerings. 

Talking of 'radical', I note the story source is BBC Verify (or as I prefer to call it: The Ministry of Truth), thus confirming that Verify is not merely a news fact checker - but is also a (progressively woke?) news generation outfit!! A very worrying development if you think about it.

https://www.motorfinanceonline.com/news/car-insurance-quotes-33-higher-in-most-ethnically-diverse-areas-bbc/

 

Edited April 11 by JMD

[DurhamBorn]

35 minutes ago, Harley said:

Agree about the risks.  I accessed it as soon as I could due to lack of trust.  25% and then later into drawdown, all done as tax efficiently as possible (which means smaller amounts over a longer time so start early).  Taking drawdown doesn't mean you need to spend it.....ISA's, etc.  Access/liquidity/security is one of the most important co-joined things for me.  Others are doing or about to do the same, all ex-high earners smelling the coffee and moving on.   

Problem for me though is im just under IHT at all times,so my SIPP is crucial because it shields a mill.If i draw more from the SIPP (the 25% lump sum for instance) i go way over IHT.Iv got trusts,that are 40% tax,so i pay the grandkids the tax allowance each year enough to get all the tax back but my daughter is getting sick of opening me bank accounts with cards etc so i can draw it out etc.If/when my dad dies the problem gets much worse,and if my brother then dies,whos money is in the trust then it gets crazy bad.The ISA of course is capital gains free so i can get the big profits out,but then need to get rid.I could buy all the kids a BTL,but they might end up splittin up etc and losing half.These allowance freezes are a nightmare.Its why im spending a lot now,because i have to try to keep things just growing or steady,could do with a BK just to wipe half my wealth out 

Edited April 11 by DurhamBorn