Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time (Part 3)

[HousePriceMania]

1 hour ago, HousePriceMania said:

Good find on TOS from the LR data

 

meanwhile new builds offer disguised price drops ( see 105% trade ins for example ).

Does anyone believe new builds have gone up 17% in price ?

Edited May 22 by HousePriceMania

[TNS]

1 hour ago, HousePriceMania said:

Does anyone believe new builds have gone up 17% in price ?

I've seen new build not far from here (surrey border) going for crazy money. 3 bed end of terrace, 1400 sq ft, around £750k, all sold.

One detached bought off plan for 750, went for 900 recently a year or 2 later.

Edited May 22 by TNS

[belfastchild]

1 hour ago, HousePriceMania said:

Does anyone believe new builds have gone up 17% in price ?

Yes.

Certainly in NI the only thing raising the average house price is the cost of newbuilds. Most other classifications have been stagnant or falling.

Thats the danger of using average price as a guide as newbuild premium will inflate.

[spunko]

Asking price dropped again.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/106428314#/?channel=RES_BUY

22 May 2024	£2,000,000	→	£1,750,000
12 Jan 2024	£2,500,000	→	£2,000,000
9 Feb 2023	£2,750,000	→	£2,500,000
19 Feb 2022	£2,500,000	→	£2,750,000
30 Jun 2021	£3,000,000	→	£2,500,000
6 May 2021	First seen	→	£3,000,000

Almost at half now. Top end continues to fall round here.

[Mandalorian]

17 hours ago, AWW said:

They make an investment every month, regular as clockwork, no matter what the price action is. If your average Joe could maintain the same level of discipline with, say, a S&P500 tracker or a global equity fund, they'd do far better than they do in property.

 

Correct

9 hours ago, nirvana said:

IRs are going up??

Election tip off?

[HousePriceMania]

you couldn't make this up....

 

 

 

 

So what happens when you add a house prices line to the chart.

 

[Long time lurking]

https://www.mortgagestrategy.co.uk/news/nationwide-mortgage-lending-falls-22-to-26-3bn/

[One percent]

30 minutes ago, Long time lurking said:

https://www.mortgagestrategy.co.uk/news/nationwide-mortgage-lending-falls-22-to-26-3bn/

I don’t have the first clue what that’s telling us. Is nationwide rowing back from risky lending?  Are there even more stupid lenders out there, encroaching on their territory? Has housing crashed?  Dunno. 

[Kendo]

25 minutes ago, One percent said:

I don’t have the first clue what that’s telling us. Is nationwide rowing back from risky lending?  Are there even more stupid lenders out there, encroaching on their territory? Has housing crashed?  Dunno. 

I posted this elsewhere the other week - Nationwide also doubling their personal loan maximum from £25k to £50k, apparently owing to building cost rises. One finance expert noting that while it’s more expensive (interest rate wise) compared to a mortgage, it’s quicker to arrange with no fees or early repayment charges.

https://amp.theguardian.com/money/article/2024/may/18/nationwide-doubles-maximum-personal-loan-50k-rising-building-costs

[One percent]

25 minutes ago, Kendo said:

I posted this elsewhere the other week - Nationwide also doubling their personal loan maximum from £25k to £50k, apparently owing to building cost rises. One finance expert noting that while it’s more expensive (interest rate wise) compared to a mortgage, it’s quicker to arrange with no fees or early repayment charges.

https://amp.theguardian.com/money/article/2024/may/18/nationwide-doubles-maximum-personal-loan-50k-rising-building-costs

What could possibly go wrong?   

[Long time lurking]

2 hours ago, One percent said:

I don’t have the first clue what that’s telling us. Is nationwide rowing back from risky lending?  Are there even more stupid lenders out there, encroaching on their territory? Has housing crashed?  Dunno. 

It would suggest demand for mortgages is falling quiet quickly,with the caveat one swallow don`t make a summer as in they might be tightening their lending criteria either on a per loan basis or not being competitive ,all of it would point to the wind blowing in the same direction though

[sancho panza]

6 hours ago, One percent said:

I don’t have the first clue what that’s telling us. Is nationwide rowing back from risky lending?  Are there even more stupid lenders out there, encroaching on their territory? Has housing crashed?  Dunno. 

it's broader asset base is circa £200bn which contains about £165bn of lending iirc.So that's a big drop right there.particualrly as weve dicsussed in the banking thread that it looks like lenders have been using new loans to cleanse the balance sheet and dilute problem loans that are stage 2

 

in other news

https://mishtalk.com/economics/homebuilders-have-the-most-inventory-since-may-2008-big-discounts-coming/

Homebuilders Have the Most Inventory Since May 2008, Big Discounts Coming

 

Speculative building, measured by started but unsold housing inventory, is at the highest level since May of 2008. To unload these units, builders will have to offer steep discounts.

Stage of Construction Details

• Homes for Sale: 480,000 the most since January of 2008
• Unsold Homes Started Plus Completed: 379,000 the most since May of 2008
• Unsold Completed Homes: 98,000 the most since September of 2009
• Unsold lots: 101,000 the most in history

[Kendo]

More woe in CRE sector reported, courtesy of ZeroHedge:

“Investors holding a tranche of top-rated debt backed by commercial real estate have suffered losses for the first time since the housing meltdown collapsed the economy 16 years ago. This alarming development signals a worsening multi-year downturn in the CRE space, fueled by the Federal Reserve's interest rate hiking cycle and plummeting office tower values nationwide.

“Bloomberg first reported that CMBS strategists at Barclays pointed out that buyers of the AAA portion of a $308 million note backed by the mortgage on the 1740 Broadway building in midtown Manhattan received less than three-quarters of their initial investment in recent weeks after the loan was dumped at a sizeable discount. All low-tier creditors were wiped out.”

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/first-time-gfc-buyers-aaa-debt-backed-cre-hit-losses

[spygirl]

22 hours ago, One percent said:

I don’t have the first clue what that’s telling us. Is nationwide rowing back from risky lending?  Are there even more stupid lenders out there, encroaching on their territory? Has housing crashed?  Dunno. 

Hard to see without more info.

It prob means that the people who were borrowing from NW no longer pass the stress test.

NW have been slumming it since 07.

Going from the most toniest lender - and cheapest cos thier loan standards are so high they had v low defaults - to bordering of last choice lender.

In tge last 15y, if you have a large deposit n low LTE then you borrowed from HSBC- they offered mortgages that were almost 1% lower than the rest. And, unlike the other banks, they had money to lend - Chinky bond investors.

 

 

[RJT1979]

On 22/05/2024 at 14:10, HousePriceMania said:

Does anyone believe new builds have gone up 17% in price ?

Up 5 -10pc max

[sancho panza]

On 24/05/2024 at 14:31, Kendo said:

I posted this elsewhere the other week - Nationwide also doubling their personal loan maximum from £25k to £50k, apparently owing to building cost rises. One finance expert noting that while it’s more expensive (interest rate wise) compared to a mortgage, it’s quicker to arrange with no fees or early repayment charges.

https://amp.theguardian.com/money/article/2024/may/18/nationwide-doubles-maximum-personal-loan-50k-rising-building-costs

TLDR-thy're in mroe trouble than the take over of virgin implies

page 8 profits down

page 10 consumer impairments up

pa ge 11 i was wrong balance sheet circa £270bn

RWA's suspicicously lwo at £54bn

page 23  read the small print at the very bttom.Natiwonwide still sat on £41bn loans from the mortgage works ,prob form back ni the day.

From prveious memeory 91% of their BTL loanbook is IO>,ergo these loansre liekly duds.

page 35,stage 3's up 20% but still low at £1.2bn

https://www.nationwide.co.uk/-/assets/nationwidecouk/documents/about/how-we-are-run/results-and-accounts/2023-2024/preliminary-results-2024.pdf?rev=18071b3f2d544dfa85352d753fd37563

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[With a crooked smile]

Ok, time for some obvious trolling.

Where is this house price crash then? You lot have been banging on for ages about a potential one, BTLs taking it up the arse etc.

House prices 6k off peak. As interest rates fall (and you know eventually they will) house prices will as a lagging indicator rise.

 

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-13443263/Why-havent-higher-mortgage-rates-led-house-price-crash.html

No crying like a baby about spilt milk @HousePriceMania.

[AWW]

It's happening right now here in London @With a crooked smile

I don't think it's going to happen everywhere.

[One percent]

Just now, AWW said:

It's happening right now here in London @With a crooked smile

I don't think it's going to happen everywhere.

Not all of london. Offspring are looking and anything half decent in their price bracket goes immediately.  Here in Shitby, it’s falling off a cliff. 

[swiss_democracy_for_all]

1 hour ago, One percent said:

Not all of london. Offspring are looking and anything half decent in their price bracket goes immediately.  Here in Shitby, it’s falling off a cliff. 

Considering the climate you've been describing for the last couple of years, plus the daytripper tourists, polluted water, van-lifers and pikeys, I'd say prices are holding up remarkably well. The way you make it sound everyone should be running for the exit!

 

[One percent]

2 minutes ago, swiss_democracy_for_all said:

Considering the climate you've been describing for the last couple of years, plus the daytripper tourists, polluted water, van-lifers and pikeys, I'd say prices are holding up remarkably well. The way you make it sound everyone should be running for the exit!

 

They are. The fhl who piled in are not getting the bookings. They can’t switch to residential letting as because they are so leveraged, the numbers don’t add up. They are starting to hit the market and the adverts for their fhl are getting more desperate by the day 

[roundhouse]

8 hours ago, With a crooked smile said:

Ok, time for some obvious trolling.

Where is this house price crash then? You lot have been banging on for ages about a potential one, BTLs taking it up the arse etc.

House prices 6k off peak. As interest rates fall (and you know eventually they will) house prices will as a lagging indicator rise.

 

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-13443263/Why-havent-higher-mortgage-rates-led-house-price-crash.html

No crying like a baby about spilt milk @HousePriceMania.

Cornwall average peaked Oct 2022. Down £21.5K since then (March 2024 temp figure). But, like the country, Cornwall is many markets. Urban, rural; coastal and inland; local, hol let/2nd homer; ordinary people, wealthy buggers. Average means little really (though I record the ONS stats, so not completely meaningless). 

Last ONS HPI stats showed huge drop in registered sales, all areas of country probably, to the point that Jan 2024 (latest) figures can't be relied on. Mostly the annual revised figure shows a drop in average price (ie high priced registered sooner) and I expect the same, but it will still be too low to be particularly statistically significant.

 

[Bobthebuilder]

8 hours ago, With a crooked smile said:

Where is this house price crash then?

You just post to confirm your opinion, you don't actually read the thread do you?

On 22/05/2024 at 17:39, spunko said:

Asking price dropped again.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/106428314#/?channel=RES_BUY

22 May 2024	£2,000,000	→	£1,750,000
12 Jan 2024	£2,500,000	→	£2,000,000
9 Feb 2023	£2,750,000	→	£2,500,000
19 Feb 2022	£2,500,000	→	£2,750,000
30 Jun 2021	£3,000,000	→	£2,500,000
6 May 2021	First seen	→	£3,000,000

Almost at half now. Top end continues to fall round here.

 

[Wight Flight]

They haven't crashed until they sell.

Plenty aren't selling.

[swiss_democracy_for_all]

How much did this go for then? Shitty little box, but lovely spot, could be made into something pleasant enough for an oldie.

@Wight Flight

2 bedroom detached bungalow for sale in Monks Lane, Freshwater, Isle of Wight, PO40 (rightmove.co.uk)