Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time (Part 3)

[spygirl]

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/tory-commuter-towns-worst-hit-050000720.html

Tory commuter towns worst hit by soaring mortgage costs

Tory commuter towns have suffered the biggest hit from soaring mortgage costs, new figures reveal.

Homeowners in Conservative strongholds outside of London experienced the sharpest rise in housing costs last year, as 1.4 million fixed-term mortgages were up for renewal.

Analysis from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) shows that families in towns in districts such as Uttlesford, Tonbridge and Malling, and Tandridge were at the sharp end of rate rises.

 

This will increase pressure on senior Tory MPs such as Kemi Badenoch, Tom Tugendhat and Claire Coutinho before the next election, all of whom have constituencies in the commuter belt.

Homeowners remortgaging in Elmbridge, which falls within the constituency of former deputy prime minister Dominic Raab, saw monthly costs rise by £456 last year, ONS figures show.

London HPI - at least for the woking, mortgaged  plebs - have falling for 10y now.

The finsec continues to contract.

Coof/WFH ahs seen the what would have been the nextgen stay away from London.

 

 

 

 

[Wight Flight]

3 hours ago, sancho panza said:

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/tory-commuter-towns-worst-hit-050000720.html

Tory commuter towns worst hit by soaring mortgage costs

Tory commuter towns have suffered the biggest hit from soaring mortgage costs, new figures reveal.

Homeowners in Conservative strongholds outside of London experienced the sharpest rise in housing costs last year, as 1.4 million fixed-term mortgages were up for renewal.

Analysis from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) shows that families in towns in districts such as Uttlesford, Tonbridge and Malling, and Tandridge were at the sharp end of rate rises.

 

This will increase pressure on senior Tory MPs such as Kemi Badenoch, Tom Tugendhat and Claire Coutinho before the next election, all of whom have constituencies in the commuter belt.

Homeowners remortgaging in Elmbridge, which falls within the constituency of former deputy prime minister Dominic Raab, saw monthly costs rise by £456 last year, ONS figures show.

I do so like averages.

BIL is in Elmbridge. His mortgage is only a few £k so might go up by £10.

So someone else is getting hit with an extra £900 per month to create that average.

(And why don't they specify what average they used. It is somewhat important).

[sancho panza]

[Ash4781b]

Statement of the obvious. Anyway lots of moaning and blame about the housing market not moving. The the Building Societies Association (BSA) will be pushing this out because ultimately their members will want to make loans! Something must be done!

'Buying a first home is harder when you're single'

 

also in there is a link to ONS most exposed to rising housing costs. Why the OnS is doing that research I don’t know

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/housing/articles/whoismostexposedtorisinghousingcostsinenglandandwales/2024-04-25

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c72plr8v94xo

[Dave Bloke]

On 26/04/2024 at 14:30, Wight Flight said:

I do so like averages.

BIL is in Elmbridge. His mortgage is only a few £k so might go up by £10.

So someone else is getting hit with an extra £900 per month to create that average.

(And why don't they specify what average they used. It is somewhat important).

And the price will be set by Mr over leveraged

[tank]

3 hours ago, Dave Bloke said:

And the price will be set by Mr over leveraged

In reality, the price is set by the Bank of Mummy and Daddy in places like that.

After all, cashed up boomers and retirees were the big winners from the COVID largesse.

Plenty of money still sloshing around to keep house prices in the London dormitories from dropping and the same goes for pretty much anywhere remotely desirable.

Edited April 29 by tank

[Democorruptcy]

Living wage age 21 or over is now £11.44 x 40 hours x 52 weeks = £23,795 x 2 applicants x 4.5 = £214,157, assuming that's 95%, add another £10,708 as a deposit, gives a total of £224,865. Santander mortgage calculator allows FTB borrowing of £211,750 on two incomes of £23,795, no outstanding debt and a £10,708 deposit over 40 years

https://www.santander.co.uk/personal/mortgages/mortgage-calculators/how-much-could-i-borrow

Look after lending at the bottom of the market supports it.

 

[spunko]

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/132021959#/?channel=RES_BUY

Top end. Almost halved in asking price.

4 Feb 2024	£1,850,000	→	£1,750,000
12 Oct 2023	£2,000,000	→	£1,850,000
14 Jul 2023	£2,375,000	→	£2,000,000
30 May 2023	£3,000,000	→	£2,375,000
26 Feb 2023	First seen	→	£3,000,000

[JoeDavola]

Prices not dropping in NI but there's less and less actually coming on the market.

Keeps getting noticibly slower in terms of volume of listings every few months. Will be interesting to see tif things pick up for spring/summer.

[Sasquatch]

5 minutes ago, spunko said:

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/132021959#/?channel=RES_BUY

Top end. Almost halved in asking price.

4 Feb 2024	£1,850,000	→	£1,750,000
12 Oct 2023	£2,000,000	→	£1,850,000
14 Jul 2023	£2,375,000	→	£2,000,000
30 May 2023	£3,000,000	→	£2,375,000
26 Feb 2023	First seen	→	£3,000,000

How the hell has that got an EPC of C?

[HousePriceMania]

On 26/04/2024 at 11:42, spygirl said:

London HPI - at least for the woking, mortgaged  plebs - have falling for 10y now.

The finsec continues to contract.

Coof/WFH ahs seen the what would have been the nextgen stay away from London.

 

 

 

 

That's interesting.

Peak in 2014 when  the crazy HTB scam was available on existing homes I believe ?

 

12 minutes ago, spunko said:

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/132021959#/?channel=RES_BUY

Top end. Almost halved in asking price.

4 Feb 2024	£1,850,000	→	£1,750,000
12 Oct 2023	£2,000,000	→	£1,850,000
14 Jul 2023	£2,375,000	→	£2,000,000
30 May 2023	£3,000,000	→	£2,375,000
26 Feb 2023	First seen	→	£3,000,000

If the previous purchase price was £800,000 has it halved or doubled in price ?

I did a bit of digging and found out what the problem with it is.

THE ASKING PRICE. 

Edited April 29 by HousePriceMania

[HousePriceMania]

On 28/04/2024 at 06:59, Ash4781b said:

'Buying a first home is harder when you're single'

 

Given the average first time buyer age is, depending on who you believe, between 32 and 37 then a lot of people will have already been married, knocked out a couple of kids and got divorced before they get to that age.

 

[belfastchild]

24 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

Prices not dropping in NI but there's less and less actually coming on the market.

Keeps getting noticibly slower in terms of volume of listings every few months. Will be interesting to see tif things pick up for spring/summer.

Not true Joe. Lots more coming on, just not on propertypal etc. Remember some agencies are boycotting propertypal.
I know of three houses came on the market on Friday, viewings all day Sat and 2 have offers accepted this morning, none of which have made any websites.

[belfastchild]

On 28/04/2024 at 06:59, Ash4781b said:

'Buying a first home is harder when you're single'

Wasnt that always the case?

I bought in the mid nineties when houses were 'cheap' and nobody and I mean nobody I know bought a house who was single. You bought with girlfriend/wife or brother/sister etc. The only person I know who bought single had an agreement with a lodger before signing for the house.

[JoeDavola]

9 minutes ago, belfastchild said:

Not true Joe. Lots more coming on, just not on propertypal etc. Remember some agencies are boycotting propertypal.
I know of three houses came on the market on Friday, viewings all day Sat and 2 have offers accepted this morning, none of which have made any websites.

So how are people finding out about these houses? Is there some secret club I have to join now?

Edited April 29 by JoeDavola

[belfastchild]

46 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

So how are people finding out about these houses? Is there some secret club I have to join now?

Register with estate agents in the areas you are looking. They will let you know of ones coming up that havent been put on the market yet etc. Its why a lot of houses see a lot of viewings on the day they get listed. By the time you see it online its probably already gone (or doesnt make the website at all).
I know of one house that went within an hour of going online. First viewer bid the asking price, vendor accepted, had already been vetted by estate agent, deal done.

[sancho panza]

jsut looking at RM trends data and the volume issues do seem more merium term now.

Here's LE3 ,normally one of the top ten or twenty postcodes for transaction in the UK.you can cearly see that in 2023,the average was about 50 per month,previous year was circa 80

we''l prob see some mroe gett added as they get regsitered for /nov/dec 23 but they do look pretty awful.

I'm not sure you can read much into price movement son such low vol.

 

all in all looks like a 30%-40% drop in vol yoy 22-23.

LE3

[sancho panza]

halifax saying prices up £5k

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/uk-house-prices-climb-demand-smaller-homes-050058788.html

UK house prices experienced a growth of 1.9% in February, indicating a £5,318 increase over the past year. This means properties are now only £7,801 shy of the peak observed in August 2022.

Demand among buyers for smaller homes helped to drive growth in UK property prices in the early months of this year, according to Halifax.

Flats and terraced houses made up for 57% of all homes purchased by first-time buyers last year. However, this varies by region. For example in London, which has the highest average property price in the UK by some margin, flats and terraced homes account for 90% of all first-time buyer purchases.

 

 

Edited April 29 by sancho panza

[MightyTharg]

1 hour ago, spunko said:

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/132021959#/?channel=RES_BUY

Top end. Almost halved in asking price.

4 Feb 2024	£1,850,000	→	£1,750,000
12 Oct 2023	£2,000,000	→	£1,850,000
14 Jul 2023	£2,375,000	→	£2,000,000
30 May 2023	£3,000,000	→	£2,375,000
26 Feb 2023	First seen	→	£3,000,000

That’s guide price not asking price. 
 

Reserve price is probably higher than that, they’re not going to give it away for only double what they paid.

[Axeman123]

I don't know about this, its cheered me up:

'Not a great start to the week' as two 'big six' lenders increase mortgage interest rates

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/not-great-start-week-two-094028892.html

Allegedly first BoE rate cut is now priced in for August at the earliest by markets...

[Wight Flight]

3 hours ago, belfastchild said:

Wasnt that always the case?

I bought in the mid nineties when houses were 'cheap' and nobody and I mean nobody I know bought a house who was single. You bought with girlfriend/wife or brother/sister etc. The only person I know who bought single had an agreement with a lodger before signing for the house.

No. Mrs F and I both bought our first houses when we were single (and I bought my second when single as well).

She had lodgers as she bought a three bed. Mine was just a flat.

Late 1980s

 

[Cosmic]

5 hours ago, belfastchild said:

Wasnt that always the case?

I bought in the mid nineties when houses were 'cheap' and nobody and I mean nobody I know bought a house who was single. You bought with girlfriend/wife or brother/sister etc. The only person I know who bought single had an agreement with a lodger before signing for the house.

Bought my first and second single. 2003 for the first, sold 2007. 2011 bought the second.

Oop north it was fairly easy, I used 1/2 what the bank would lend me for my first house (inhindsight due to rampant HPI, a mistake... but non the less)!

Edited April 29 by Cosmic

[kibuc]

Every month or so a conversation with my wife returns like a boomerang about our inability (or my unwillingness, as she prefers to put it) to buy a house in our area. Every month I have to repeat the same arguments about prices being completely detached from earnings, and every conversation includes this particular piece

- But who's buying all these houses then?

- Other than the Hong Kongers?  Mostly people who cannot really afford it, they just don't know it yet.

Perhaps this chart will serve to support it.

Edited April 29 by kibuc

[Ash4781b]

6 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

I don't know about this, its cheered me up:

'Not a great start to the week' as two 'big six' lenders increase mortgage interest rates

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/not-great-start-week-two-094028892.html

Allegedly first BoE rate cut is now priced in for August at the earliest by markets...

Bbc picked up. To be honest it actually looks like interest rates stabilising. Possibly consistent with a model where interest cuts are always on the near term horizon just around the corner. Bailey said rates would come down so surely he must deliver?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c3g5jrl9yg4o

[Democorruptcy]

11 minutes ago, Ash4781b said:

Bbc picked up. To be honest it actually looks like interest rates stabilising. Possibly consistent with a model where interest cuts are always on the near term horizon just around the corner. Bailey said rates would come down so surely he must deliver?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c3g5jrl9yg4o

Did the BBC say it's great news for savers because if mortgage rates are going up, then banks must be raising saving rates as well?