Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time (Part 3)

[Don Coglione]

11 hours ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

 

I'd say bungalow prices are mental, but so are first time buyer prices.

Just looked up my first house on Zoopla, it's a story of insane inflation on a 2 up 2 down terrace.

That's 3.3x in 24 years.

 

Nick Ferrari on LBC saying his first house from 1982 was £32k and is now around £500k. That is x15.6, I don't think wages have risen that much.

Amateur! Mine's at least 6x in 24 years (M21).

[Mandalorian]

2 minutes ago, Don Coglione said:

Amateur! Mine's at least 6x in 24 years (M21).

Chorlton.  The gays and lesbians and vegan socialists bid the prices up there.

[Don Coglione]

3 minutes ago, Mandalorian said:

Chorlton.  The gays and lesbians and vegan socialists bid the prices up there.

Chorlton Green, Dahling (as I believe it is now called).

[Mandalorian]

1 hour ago, Don Coglione said:

Chorlton Green, Dahling (as I believe it is now called).

Used to be Chorlton cum Hardy.

Which never fails to make me smirk.

[spygirl]

More London.

House prices in London hit by high property costs and post-Covid trends

Capital has underperformed rest of UK since 2016 but remains most expensive part of the country

https://www.ft.com/content/2314dac6-b5e0-458a-ae39-7102d3a1c11f

House prices in London have underperformed the rest of the UK for the past eight years because of the unaffordable costs of property, post-pandemic housing trends and high mortgage rates.

Official data this week shows that house prices in the capital were 4.8 per cent lower in February 2024 compared with the year before, much worse than the 0.2 per cent contraction registered in the same period across Britain.

At best, you might have flat prices since 2016.

At worse- HTB flat - youll be down huge dollops.

Again, usual applies- very low number of mortgages./house sales.

But that works both ways i..e low sales may be masking hidden prices falls when people are forced to sell.

6%-8%i is going to destroy most peoples who bought since early 00s  earned money in London.

More detail - 

https://www.standard.co.uk/homesandproperty/property-news/london-house-prices-ons-february-2024-b1152149.html

Prime markets in central London continued to see some of the largest drops in house prices.

“Hackney is one of the fastest-growing places in the capital, if not the country, from a price perspective.”

ISAAC ODEGBAMI, HAMPTONS

Westminster saw the sharpest drop of 20.8 per cent, knocking almost £240,000 off the average house price.

Kensington and Chelsea, while still the most expensive place in the entire UK to purchase property with an average house price of £1.2 million, saw prices drop 14.1 per cent.

 

 

 

 

 

[Chewing Grass]

No Spring bounce this year in listings, its a bit bleak.

First 3 digit search, graph covers from Feb 2021 to date.

[spygirl]

12 hours ago, Chewing Grass said:

No Spring bounce this year in listings, its a bit bleak.

First 3 digit search, graph covers from Feb 2021 to date.

Depends where.

There was a listing surge from late 2023 to ~feb 2024, as the mortgage bit.

Spnngs been slow. I guess people are fucked, so cant move. Or are hoping for lowr IR, which arnt coming.

In other places, where theres been loads of FHL bought  since ~2012ish the listings continue to surge.

These people have double the pain - higher IR on home n FHL - and are looking at bankruptcy.

 

 

 

 

[spunko]

4 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Depends where.

There was a listing surge from late 2023 to ~feb 2024, as the mortgage bit.

Spnngs been slow. I guess people are fucked, so cant move. Or are hoping for lowr IR, which arnt coming.

In other places, where theres been loads of FHL bought  since ~2012ish the listings continue to surge.

These people have double the pain - higher IR on home n FHL - and are looking at bankruptcy.

 

 

 

 

I want to move but every time I check new listings on Rightmove it's just a load of overpriced crap. May as well wait for prices to drop more, and I suspect I'm not the only one.

[Hardhat]

Anecdotally, I know of several people in the local area who have listed (at ZIRP prices), had no interest and then taken their homes off the market again and just won't be moving.

Not exactly "mortgage prisoners", but people who can't actually afford to move until the entire market corrects allowing them to transact (I.e. even if they accepted a lower offer to get a sale, their repayment would be much higher when buying a new property).

With that said I've seen transactions going through if seller is offloading a surplus property (LL / probate etc) or are moving to a cheaper area.

[Ash4781b]

I expect the market will be like this until general election and or if an interest rate cut materialises. Interesting that Hunt reported to looking at stamp duty changes for September. Not sure what that does to the market?

[Ash4781b]

I watched this one the other day.

George Clarke's Remarkable Renovations.

The one I watched was the pie factory series 3 Episode 7. These people I think caught caught in the interest rate finance changes , material price rises and also getting what appeared to be well out of their depth based on their development and project management experience.  Actually I’m surprised how out of their depth they got @spygirl

https://www.channel4.com/programmes/george-clarkes-remarkable-renovations

[HousePriceMania]

On 19/04/2024 at 21:49, Chewing Grass said:

No Spring bounce this year in listings, its a bit bleak.

First 3 digit search, graph covers from Feb 2021 to date.

Overall available listings are shooting back up.

[sleepwello'nights]

House down the lane that has been for sale since the owner died early last year now has "Sale Agreed" on agent's board outside. Price last listed at was 5% lower than first listed. 

Probate sale so beneficiaries only had minimal holding costs. Was last sold in 1999 for £42k.

Spring bounce starting?

[HousePriceMania]

5 hours ago, sleepwello'nights said:

House down the lane that has been for sale since the owner died early last year now has "Sale Agreed" on agent's board outside. Price last listed at was 5% lower than first listed. 

Probate sale so beneficiaries only had minimal holding costs. Was last sold in 1999 for £42k.

Spring bounce starting?

Seeing a of sstc appear round us, some total crap at 2022 prices too.

 

No idea who's buying, the mortgages for some of this stuff would be 4 or 5k a month for a 4 bed house in Northampton. I makes no sense 

[One percent]

12 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Seeing a of sstc appear round us, some total crap at 2022 prices too.

 

No idea who's buying, the mortgages for some of this stuff would be 4 or 5k a month for a 4 bed house in Northampton. I makes no sense 

Serco, to house the new British?  

[HousePriceMania]

3 hours ago, One percent said:

Serco, to house the new British?  

In 600,000 new builds?

[HousePriceMania]

Seems to be a load of Chinese and Indians appearing locally now. Maybe the EEs are buying them to rent out to them?

 

Given the number of Turkish barbers appearing I think there must be a load of money laundering going into houses now, can't see any other way anyone would buy 

[One percent]

6 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

In 600,000 new builds?

It wouldn’t surprise me. There have been stories of councils building new property for the gimmies. A new estate near me, couldn’t sell them and so a housing association has bought a load. 

[With a crooked smile]

5 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Seems to be a load of Chinese and Indians appearing locally now. Maybe the EEs are buying them to rent out to them?

 

Given the number of Turkish barbers appearing I think there must be a load of money laundering going into houses now, can't see any other way anyone would buy 

Maybe you need to chill. Who care who's buying. Apparently your investments.have done better than houses so why worry?

I own several properties and you dont see me frantically posting about house prices all the time. I'm quite happy just to sit back.

[Pip321]

Market remarkably robust around me (North Yorks/Golden Triangle) but what I mean by that is that it isn’t falling…..yet.

Not alot on the market though so that is keeping prices up…but things taking a bit longer to sell. If more stuff came on I don’t thunk there are more buyers and the market would nudge back a bit. 

Some hefty bandwidth though with shabby houses that don’t fit the ‘development criteria’ a developer might want really struggle.

Normies not interested in saving £50k for the sake of a £10k refurb job, ie decor, a fireplace, some blinds, light fittings etc.

However normies are certainly willing to overpay for a log burner, farrow and hall (ish) walls and fancy blinds. They have learned nothing from all those TV programmes 

I sold 2 last year under that bracket ie lightly refurb’d with carpets, blinds, lights, kitchen units farrow and hall painted and fires altered to inset chimney with floating wood mantle. 

I still look out for stuff because we will move at some point. A £1.5m beauty came on last week….gone before it even hit the market. It was originally a pair of Victorian semis and massive potential profit due to location….they will sell stuff all day long in this town. I would have bought half of it (ie one of the semis) as a family home for £800k and I am really tight….

However those new builds that people were fighting over in 2022 are struggling. Scuffs on the walls have knocked £100k off some of those £500k Exec homes.

I think pre election the market will tick along….after that when rates don’t fall we will start to see opportunities for those willing to buy value. 👍🏻😉

[One percent]

48 minutes ago, Pip321 said:

Market remarkably robust around me (North Yorks/Golden Triangle) but what I mean by that is that it isn’t falling…..yet.

Not alot on the market though so that is keeping prices up…but things taking a bit longer to sell. If more stuff came on I don’t thunk there are more buyers and the market would nudge back a bit. 

Some hefty bandwidth though with shabby houses that don’t fit the ‘development criteria’ a developer might want really struggle.

Normies not interested in saving £50k for the sake of a £10k refurb job, ie decor, a fireplace, some blinds, light fittings etc.

However normies are certainly willing to overpay for a log burner, farrow and hall (ish) walls and fancy blinds. They have learned nothing from all those TV programmes 

I sold 2 last year under that bracket ie lightly refurb’d with carpets, blinds, lights, kitchen units farrow and hall painted and fires altered to inset chimney with floating wood mantle. 

I still look out for stuff because we will move at some point. A £1.5m beauty came on last week….gone before it even hit the market. It was originally a pair of Victorian semis and massive potential profit due to location….they will sell stuff all day long in this town. I would have bought half of it (ie one of the semis) as a family home for £800k and I am really tight….

However those new builds that people were fighting over in 2022 are struggling. Scuffs on the walls have knocked £100k off some of those £500k Exec homes.

I think pre election the market will tick along….after that when rates don’t fall we will start to see opportunities for those willing to buy value. 👍🏻😉

It’s Farrow and Ball dear, Farrow and Ball. 

[leonardratso]

4 minutes ago, One percent said:

It’s Farrow and Ball dear, Farrow and Ball. 

i wouldnt recognise it if it was printed on the tin.

 

[Pip321]

1 minute ago, One percent said:

It’s Farrow and Ball dear, Farrow and Ball. 

Sorry just a Typo…..I know my paints.
And to be fair it’s Johnson’s Covaplus…codes matched to Farrow & Ball.😎

In fact my wife thinks I am a right puff when it comes to colours. 😂

[Pip321]

1 minute ago, leonardratso said:

i wouldnt recognise it if it was printed on the tin.

 

Oh come on…Elephants Breath is unmistakable 😂

First time I ever bought it I asked for Elephants breath….I am trade but the guys at the paint shop had a super skit. Basically they said they couldn’t do it and I was wrong to ask for them to mix a copied colour……then went onto say

”Elephants breath represents the heat of Africa, with a gentle mist from the scorched earth rising from the feet of the majestic elephants as they make their way across the plains. It captures a moment about 20 minutes before the sun drops and you can smell that dry earth with every brush stroke”

“However I can do you a tin of 229…..exactly the same colour but without the speech.” 😂😂

Basically Farrow & Ball own the name…..but of course no one owns a colour.😉

Ps…Its dropped cloth, maybe Stiffkey Blue and shaded white and/or ammonite I use at the moment depending on the property….yep, I definitely know too much about colours. 

 

[One percent]

17 minutes ago, Pip321 said:

Sorry just a Typo…..I know my paints.
And to be fair it’s Johnson’s Covaplus…codes matched to Farrow & Ball.😎

In fact my wife thinks I am a right puff when it comes to colours. 😂

A question for an expert if you please. If I buy any old emulsion, even from the known manufacturers, it’s like painting with glue, brush marks everywhere. If i buy the expensive emulsion, f&b, little and brown, etc, it goes on really well. Ive even taken to thinning the cheaper stuff down. It still goes on like glue.