Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 9)

[Plan-b]

IT begins - Ethereum ETFs approved

The SEC filings list eight Ethereum ETFs from VanEck, Fidelity, Franklin, Grayscale, Bitwise, ARK Invest & 21Shares, Invesco & Galaxy, and BlackRock’s iShares Ethereum Trust, proposed for listing on Nasdaq, NYSE Arca, and Cboe BZX Exchange.

Edited May 23 by Plan-b

[sancho panza]

8 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

It amazes me with Japan,what do they borrow so much for?.I dont see millions of ADHD bennie claims etc,so where is it going?

Japan has elderly population and a similar addiction ot deficit spending as the west.It goes a bit further though because they're not shy buying 2x ETFs to get the market moving

https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/budget/budget/fy2022/03.pdf

[wherebee]

the Japanese public also have huge amounts of savings though, unlike the shitty western consumer.  Much of that is in government debt.  US, Australian debt is favoured.

Another peice of the puzzle why the US has to support Japan - if those old folk have to start selling their savings instruments, the impact on western bond prices would be extreme...

 

[BurntBread]

17 hours ago, JMD said:

You've reminded me that I did mean to watch that intriguing Bridgen interview.

Has anyone got a link to the full interview please?

Sorry, on my phone so hard to find and paste here. However you'll find the interview on the website http://www.docmalik.com, and if you search for the Andrew Bridgen thread on Off-topic, you'll find my summary of the 2 hours and, more usefully, direct links.

Edited May 24 by BurntBread

[PatronizingGit]

On 14/05/2024 at 10:10, afly said:

I was in Brazil about 7 years ago and was surprised to see normal daily basic stuff was available on finance. I realized how different the lives of an average brit was compared to the average brazilian

 

takeaways with klarna

https://deliveroo.co.uk/more/pay-with-klarna

 

 

Meanwhile denninger on one of his weekly radio slots a couple of months back was saying that in Argentina barely anyone can get credit for anything, not cars not houses. (his projection for the US unless the deficit is reigned in)

[Castlevania]

CEO of Abrdn is stepping down. He’s been largely awful. Hopefully they’ll get someone half decent in and they might then be worth buying.

[sancho panza]

I was chatting with my mate who drives with the agencies last night and he was of the firm opinion that the street economy in the UK is in much worse shape than the GDP figures would have it.

His theory being Sunak has announced election now,because by late 2024 things are going to be even worse economically.

A sentiment many down here would agree with especally given some of the recent anecdotals posted.

Hes saying in his game,there's work out there,but not as much as before,but a lot more time wasting and him having tot ravel further out of Leicester for it

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/shock-plunge-retail-sales-deals-062215555.html

Shock plunge in retail sales deals pre-election economic blow to Sunak

The UK’s economic recovery hit a major speedbump just two days after Rishi Sunak’s election announcement, as official figures today revealed retail sales fell by a shock 2.3% in April.

The figures confounded City economists, who had expected a much more modest 0.4% decline.

Bad weather and the timing of the Easter holiday both played a role in the decline. Clothing retailers, sports equipment, games and toys stores, and furniture stores in particular struggled.

 

Sales are now down 0.8% year-on-year.Sales at household goods stores were down by 5.4%.

The amount spent online, known as online spending values, fell by 1.2% during April 2024, and by 1.5% over the year.

Revised figures also show retail sales fell in March as well.

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Castlevania said:

CEO of Abrdn is stepping down. He’s been largely awful. Hopefully they’ll get someone half decent in and they might then be worth buying.

I know most wont agree with me but i think he has done a very good job from where he started.He sold the India stakes getting full value,something others thought not likely.He bought II for £1.5bill with the proceeds and everyone said he over paid,he said it was good value as platforms were very rare and would become key assets.The bid price for HL vindicates that view and that II is worth £2 to £3billion.The question is why now though?.Do they themselves fancy a split?.It would likely see 50% uplifts for investors,but i dont think its a good idea,unless its done with a big merger.II is very valuable,so other big asset managers without direct to consumer might really fancy bidding.The industry is still fragmented in the UK and there is huge wealth from inheritance about to change hands,this time to a generation who also mostly own their own homes,so that capital will come out of housing into investments in many cases.ABRDN could capture a lot of that.They are also one of the few actives with extensive EM knowledge.One of the reasons they have been smashed,but likely very very valuable as the next structural cycle unfolds.I think the company can double,or even treble over time with the right leadership going forward and as always a bit of luck.

It sounds crazy,but i sick of losing companies to takeovers for quick 50% profits,because id much rather collect big divis and hopefully slow recovery and growth in the share prices.

[DurhamBorn]

52 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

I was chatting with my mate who drives with the agencies last night and he was of the firm opinion that the street economy in the UK is in much worse shape than the GDP figures would have it.

His theory being Sunak has announced election now,because by late 2024 things are going to be even worse economically.

A sentiment many down here would agree with especally given some of the recent anecdotals posted.

Hes saying in his game,there's work out there,but not as much as before,but a lot more time wasting and him having tot ravel further out of Leicester for it

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/shock-plunge-retail-sales-deals-062215555.html

Shock plunge in retail sales deals pre-election economic blow to Sunak

The UK’s economic recovery hit a major speedbump just two days after Rishi Sunak’s election announcement, as official figures today revealed retail sales fell by a shock 2.3% in April.

The figures confounded City economists, who had expected a much more modest 0.4% decline.

Bad weather and the timing of the Easter holiday both played a role in the decline. Clothing retailers, sports equipment, games and toys stores, and furniture stores in particular struggled.

 

Sales are now down 0.8% year-on-year.Sales at household goods stores were down by 5.4%.

The amount spent online, known as online spending values, fell by 1.2% during April 2024, and by 1.5% over the year.

Revised figures also show retail sales fell in March as well.

Imagine the size of the falls from the working in the private sector side of the economy.It must be higher than the average.Retired are mostly seeing huge increases in nominal.Mortgaged private sector are where the pain is.The productive taking the pain alone cannot last,something will give.

[Calcutta]

10 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Imagine the size of the falls from the working in the private sector side of the economy.It must be higher than the average.Retired are mostly seeing huge increases in nominal.Mortgaged private sector are where the pain is.The productive taking the pain alone cannot last,something will give.

Warehouse just told us we're getting a 4% pay rise this year. No word on the bonus yet, that's usually about a grand. 

Prudently I've blagged myself a higher rate of pay for the next few weeks by volunteering to try and train and pair of untrainable autistic lads that nobody else wants to work with. I shall milk it out by spending most of my time explaining to them how much better off they'll be on benefits.

 

[DurhamBorn]

19 minutes ago, Calcutta said:

Warehouse just told us we're getting a 4% pay rise this year. No word on the bonus yet, that's usually about a grand. 

Prudently I've blagged myself a higher rate of pay for the next few weeks by volunteering to try and train and pair of untrainable autistic lads that nobody else wants to work with. I shall milk it out by spending most of my time explaining to them how much better off they'll be on benefits.

 

Tell them thats 3% less than retired public sector and bennies got.4% less than bennies after tax.Financial repression on workers right there.

[Axeman123]

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

Sales are now down 0.8% year-on-year.Sales at household goods stores were down by 5.4%.

If that is nominal rather than real...it looks like the pips are squeeking about now.

[leonardratso]

SuperDividend UCITS ETF

monthly divi, not a great capital increase but i do like my monthly divi

[Onsamui]

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[Calcutta]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Tell them thats 3% less than retired public sector and bennies got.4% less than bennies after tax.Financial repression on workers right there.

Best way I could think to explain it was as a 4% pay cut. If they don't pay the bonus either that's pretty much 10% down. 

I don't think it bothers the older ones who got houses for 10k but the younger ones are fucked. Suppose I better get back in there and make sure these two idiots haven't gone off the rez.

[King Penda]

3 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Imagine the size of the falls from the working in the private sector side of the economy.It must be higher than the average.Retired are mostly seeing huge increases in nominal.Mortgaged private sector are where the pain is.The productive taking the pain alone cannot last,something will give.

I got a splendid errection 

[King Penda]

2 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

If that is nominal rather than real...it looks like the pips are squeeking about now.

They certainly were this morning when a smug English twat said make sure that Rumanian gives you some petrol money.I said she will and whilst on the subject you can buy me some beer .she was like you told me you’ve got loads I’m like free beer tastes nicer . So the bitch bought me fucking carling ffs 

[ashestoashes]

23 minutes ago, King Penda said:

I got a splendid errection 

looks to be keeling over

[ashestoashes]

19 minutes ago, King Penda said:

They certainly were this morning when a smug English twat said make sure that Rumanian gives you some petrol money.I said she will and whilst on the subject you can buy me some beer .she was like you told me you’ve got loads I’m like free beer tastes nicer . So the bitch bought me fucking carling ffs 

a dosbodder would only cool enough beer for the next session, where is the second fridge ?

[King Penda]

6 minutes ago, ashestoashes said:

a dosbodder would only cool enough beer for the next session, where is the second fridge ?

Incorrect the more shit in the fridge the cheaper it is to run it ps I forgot to add my sniffters

Edited May 24 by King Penda

[Pip321]

6 hours ago, Castlevania said:

CEO of Abrdn is stepping down. He’s been largely awful. Hopefully they’ll get someone half decent in and they might then be worth buying.

It’s galling but I watched Abdn all the way to 136p but didn’t buy. Despite them being something I wanted to repurchase

I am tempted to buy now but feels so difficult at almost 160p……can someone turn the machines into reverse so I can fill up on Abdn at something like 140p please.

I guess…this is fairly normal. Best not let it turn into FOMO and buying something else instead. 🤦🏻‍♂️

 

[Errol]

5 hours ago, leonardratso said:

SuperDividend UCITS ETF

monthly divi, not a great capital increase but i do like my monthly divi

Interesting chart on this one (SDIV).

[Errol]

Saudis getting out of US stocks:

 

 

[leonardratso]

41 minutes ago, Errol said:

Interesting chart on this one (SDIV).

tons of holdings, i suppose to grab as many divis spread as poss, i see M&G is just about the only uk one, the rest is all over the place, biggest slants to china, although even they are only a few % of total.

 

[Noallegiance]

1 hour ago, Errol said:

Saudis getting out of US stocks:

 

 

And yet the S&P is 500pts higher than Dec 2023.