Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 9)

[Lightscribe]

On 21/05/2024 at 12:09, DoINeedOne said:

Bit random I know but we've all seen the below image

 

I saw the below video today and thought what an amazing set of paintings but I have seen some of the images before

some of the above images used are from a collection of paintings by Thomas Cole "The Course of Empire"

Thomas Cole's large-scale landscape series, created between 1833 and 1836, that charts the rise and fall of an imaginative empire. 

 

 

 

Alternative for a better understanding for Dodbods

Edited May 22 by Lightscribe

[Loki]

12 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

Alternative for a better understanding for Dodbods

 

I thought Greggs created fat chicks 

[kibuc]

1 minute ago, Loki said:

I thought Greggs created fat chicks 

Also, hot chicks create good, hard times.

Fat chicks create bad, floppy times.

[Lightscribe]

8 minutes ago, Loki said:

I thought Greggs created fat chicks 

A result of money printing stimulus transferring index linked stimulus to the benefit classes which is why Greggs stock is this…

+10 points for Loki, top of the class 

In the Victorian times they would be on gruel I tell you gruel… 

[Loki]

A fucking bakery trading at multiples of K+S AG

[Shamone]

4 minutes ago, Loki said:

A fucking bakery trading at multiples of K+S AG

Divi today though?

[Ash4781b]

10 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

A result of money printing stimulus transferring index linked stimulus to the benefit classes which is why Greggs stock is this…

+10 points for Loki, top of the class 

In the Victorian times they would be on gruel I tell you gruel… 

I went there the other day and the big lass in front had a Greggs card thing and it gave her £2 reward at the till so she bought an extra donut. She was buying two so bought three.

 

Edited May 22 by Ash4781b

[spygirl]

1 minute ago, Ash4781b said:

I went there the other day and the big lass in front had a Greggs card thing and it gave her £2 reward at the till so she bought an extra donut. She was buying two so bought three.

 

Get her number?

[Noallegiance]

1 hour ago, Long time lurking said:

What is it now $2.4 trillion ?

For prospective if you spent £1 million everyday it would take 2470 years to spend £1 trillion 

2740 years.

It's fucking mental.

[StrugglingMillennial]

I'm pretty sure it's over £3 trillion now, well if you Google UK debt clock 👍🏻

[Noallegiance]

Taking Bretton Woods as a starting point, that's equivalent of UK Gov borrowing and spending over £85.5m quid every day for 80 straight years.

#winning

[desertorchid]

21 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

Taking Bretton Woods as a starting point, that's equivalent of UK Gov borrowing and spending over £85.5m quid every day for 80 straight years.

#winning

Over and above what they collect in ALL taxes. It is quite insane when you think about it.

THAT is inflation. 

[DurhamBorn]

Here we go,i have been a lone voice on the fact the asset managers as a group were under valued and its started to flush out the bidders at last.I really dont want to see HL go private though because if they do i will transfer to II .I suspect many others would too.Abrdn is hugely under valued too.I suspect M&G and maybe Legal and General or some other big blue chip will consider a counter bid.This will fire the gun,the industry needs to merge down to unleash value and save themselves all been taken out.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/05/22/abu-dhabi-launches-5bn-takeover-bid-for-hargreaves-lansdown/

[Lightscribe]

Not long now men hold firm, clown world is building to the crescendo… 

[Alifelessbinary]

2 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Here we go,i have been a lone voice on the fact the asset managers as a group were under valued and its started to flush out the bidders at last.I really dont want to see HL go private though because if they do i will transfer to II .I suspect many others would too.Abrdn is hugely under valued too.I suspect M&G and maybe Legal and General or some other big blue chip will consider a counter bid.This will fire the gun,the industry needs to merge down to unleash value and save themselves all been taken out.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/05/22/abu-dhabi-launches-5bn-takeover-bid-for-hargreaves-lansdown/

Another cracking call DB. Impressive.

If sold I’d ditch my shares instantly and move my families account. While expansive they are my main investment platforms, as they have solid financials and should provide greater stability.

We are now entering a market where we risk losing some cracking stocks, as they are taken private before the plebs can get their returns.

[DurhamBorn]

7 minutes ago, Alifelessbinary said:

Another cracking call DB. Impressive.

If sold I’d ditch my shares instantly and move my families account. While expansive they are my main investment platforms, as they have solid financials and should provide greater stability.

We are now entering a market where we risk losing some cracking stocks, as they are taken private before the plebs can get their returns.

Same here,i expected the industry to merge down creating value,but they have avoided it and now its flushing out big bidders.There is no way i would keep my assets there is they are not FTSE 350 listed.Id move to II.If HL goes i suspect we might see a friendly merge between ABRDN and M&G or someone else.The last several years iv sat and watched huge under valuation in areas from the market and its costing the UK huge amounts.Forcing pensions into gilts to fund bennies is the root of our ills.For the newcomers to the thread they need to understand the work i do is macro strategy.Its not charting,or stock timing.I try to work out the leads and lags,but it can sometimes take time for the market to catch up and the value to out.

[wherebee]

9 hours ago, Hardhat said:

Turkcell (ADR) has been thundering away the past couple of months.

I'm letting it run for now but big paper profits.

The reason why is confirmation of the thread thesis on telecoms - Turkey has a massive inflation rate, and Turkcell have been repricing their tariffs slightly above inflation.

As long as a telecoms company has regulatory approval in its home jurisdiction to increase prices above inflation, and they respond to inflation by increasing prices, they should be winners in an inflationary environment.

 

whereas in Australia, Telstra price has dropped sharply due to messups in terms of coverage and news they are cutting 10,000 staff despite huge problems with the network already.  I think the telecoms = good macro view can be derailed quiet easily with poor management/regulatory interference. (I went into Telstra last year, made 5%, got out, because I heard too many stories about how shit the service was from mates, etc)

[ThoughtCriminal]

100k in Nvidia in 1999 is now worth 245 million. Most of this from producing AI chips which, as far as I can tell, aren't actually making anyone much money as of yet.

[jamtomorrow]

12 hours ago, Errol said:

 

Somebody check on Stuey

[Noallegiance]

8 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Here we go,i have been a lone voice on the fact the asset managers as a group were under valued and its started to flush out the bidders at last.I really dont want to see HL go private though because if they do i will transfer to II .I suspect many others would too.Abrdn is hugely under valued too.I suspect M&G and maybe Legal and General or some other big blue chip will consider a counter bid.This will fire the gun,the industry needs to merge down to unleash value and save themselves all been taken out.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/05/22/abu-dhabi-launches-5bn-takeover-bid-for-hargreaves-lansdown/

Totally ignorant question here.

What would change if HL gets bought?

[Alifelessbinary]

28 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

Totally ignorant question here.

What would change if HL gets bought?

In a basic level the owner.

The wider impacts would be felt throughout the business as they could change a huge range of governance and process. From my research HL has always been run in a prudent way that takes reasonable steps to protect its clients money. I’m prepared to pay slightly higher fees to cover this approach.

The main treat of a takeover is the unknowns. My main concern is that in pursuit of higher profits they take riskier bets behind the scenes increasing my third party risk.

I’m now in the lucky position where the fscs protection doesn’t cover my deposits. An Icelandic bank or Blackrock situation is therefore something I fear. Mo money mo problems. 

The simple solution is to spread capital across managers, however this takes additional work and many brands are linked with a single provider.

[Pip321]

8 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

Not long now men hold firm, clown world is building to the crescendo… 

It’s an important message…..65% of black Americans report of being anxious over climate related issues.

Let that sink in…..carefully worded, maybe not a direct lie but gaslighting extreme. 

Not gun crime, knife crime, crime in general, economic issues, immigration, education, health care……nope 65% are worried about climate related issues. 

They are telling us what they want the issues to be…..they are not asking. It’s all bollocks.

Vote “none of the above”

[Jay]

1 minute ago, Alifelessbinary said:

In a basic level the owner.

The wider impacts would be felt throughout the business as they could change a huge range of governance and process. From my research HL has always been run in a prudent way that takes reasonable steps to protect its clients money. I’m prepared to pay slightly higher fees to cover this approach.

The main treat of a takeover is the unknowns. My main concern is that in pursuit of higher profits they take riskier bets behind the scenes increasing my third party risk.

I’m now in the lucky position where the fscs protection doesn’t cover my deposits. An Icelandic bank or Blackrock situation is therefore something I fear. Mo money mo problems. 

The simple solution is to spread capital across managers, however this takes additional work and many brands are linked with a single provider.

Your lucky position just got 15% bigger..

 

 

[MrXxxx]

PM calls election yesterday, Utilities down this morning..fears that Labour will get in and re-nationalise utilities?

[DurhamBorn]

49 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

Totally ignorant question here.

What would change if HL gets bought?

On the surface nothing,but i wouldnt trust them.