Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 9)

[Mouse]

23 minutes ago, Harley said:

I finally quit my last normal job quite early after I realised waiting for redundancy was killing me and not going to happen. 

I finally had the courage on my third attempt when they did some disagreeable corporate stuff.

It's been a while now and awesome in a hard but fufilling way.  I'm now beginning to feel old and slowing down so am increasingly pleased I had that time.

Each to their own but a good call for me personally.

My hubby retired at 56 and then had a major health scare. It made us both realise how precious time is and how it's the one thing you can't buy.

[DurhamBorn]

7 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Roger that WB and I appreciate you saying it,but we sold our US oilies/Gasies in the run up,poured it into the cheap Euro oilies that were lagging and are too hevily Euro centric as a result

I think Woodside is a good way to hedge that,maybe not with a big postion .US oilies are bid up beyond beleif imho.Im not paying $115 for XOM.

dyor as ever but a bit like some of the ptoash have got cheap,one or two of the oilies offer some specualtive upside ege harbour/woodsie

pays yer moeny tho....

PS apprecaite the heads up,I really do.one person cant monitor 300 stocks.

When i looked at them after mention on the thread i liked the fact they had a lot of big projects about to finish from late last year into 27,so capital spending should turn lower and free cash higher.Those LNG trains could be very valuable if the US slows gas exports.Asia will want more gas for a long time as well.Like you i dont think there are many multi bag areas left,we nailed most of them.Il be honest as well,my portfolios are all at record highs,divis are landing much faster than i could spend them even if i had SIPP acces and they need to go somewhere,Woodside got the ones from ABRDN and BAT,few big ones later in the month will likely go that way.Obvious the west is entering stagflation for now,so any returns ahead of inflation will be big wins for this part of the cycle.Even flatlining sticks with 7%+ divis will likely look shrewd investments in a few years.

[Long time lurking]

14 hours ago, Pip321 said:

I am going to show my grandkids this fella trying to answer a question….its a great advert in why you shouldn’t do drugs.

Fuck me….Ozzy Osbourne is more coherent 🤢😂

I cant remember the exact statement or who made it but it goes like "if the people understood how our banking system worked there would be a revolution by the morning "

The cynic in me thinks he also knows that 

[Calcutta]

51 minutes ago, Harley said:

I finally quit my last normal job quite early after I realised waiting for redundancy was killing me and not going to happen. 

I finally had the courage on my third attempt when they did some disagreeable corporate stuff.

It's been a while now and awesome in a hard but fufilling way.  I'm now beginning to feel old and slowing down so am increasingly pleased I had that time.

Each to their own but a good call for me personally.

Old boy I used to work with was hanging on till he's paid his mortgage and hoping for redundancy.

He got a bad dose of COVID, didn't want to come back but the HR department and the pensions spivs were giving him grief, confusing him and telling him he'd have to come back to work. While he was still in the hospital I worked out where he stood legally, ran the numbers for him and explained how it'd work as simply as I could.

He rang them up, told them what he knew, the attitude changed and they gave him his money. He lives by the seaside and I got stuck covering his job. 

 

[belfastchild]

8 hours ago, wherebee said:

the fact that he insults ireland in that piece shows the gulf between a native and an immigrant leader.  A native leader would know that for 300 years, Ireland and England have been close to war, in a civil war, or in conflict, many times.  That the relationship has to be nurtured because the Irish have very long memories, and if the brits can be blamed for something they will, and then people start to die.

So you don't say to them 'you fuckers deserve your immigration rapes and murders'.

 

Like Priti Patel saying about Brexit food checks and starving the Irish out.

Yes, that went down well.

It does some up some of the 'British' attitudes though. They really do see themselves as an isolated island. Where you can do shit in foreign countries and it have no effects back on the island. Its not just the son or daughter of immigrant leaders either its the ones who dont see past the home counties.

 

As an aside, was out with a few mates yesterday and we unsurprisingly had a good long chat about immigration etc. Not the rights/wrongs who is in out etc but putting it in context. Theres loads of threads on here about people wanting to leave the UK because its turning into a shithole etc. My own family are leaving after more years there than they lived here because they see it all turning to shit and its been a recent thing, although covid did emphasise the isolation with the rest of the family and the distances between them in England.
Anyway back to immigration and we mostly came to the conclusion that the immigrants (both legal and boat people) are ahead of the game compared to many of us. We can blame bennies and immigration policies and all sorts but we are looking at it from our perspective, not theirs. They are seeing collapse in their places and getting out to fuck asap. It takes a lot to uproot and move, nobody would voluntarily cross the channel in a small boat, nobody would live on a fucking tent in a city centre.
All this is relative, the level of collapse in their home countries is of greater magnitude than potholes, nobody answering phone calls and five quid coffees but its all relative.
One of the things Ive said on here a few times and say a lot in real life is that if you are going to panic, panic first. Perhaps the waves of immigration are exactly that, the people panicing first, the ones closest to the coal face as it were, the ones who will see immediate effects long before we do.

[Errol]

15 minutes ago, belfastchild said:

Like Priti Patel saying about Brexit food checks and starving the Irish out.

Yes, that went down well.

It does some up some of the 'British' attitudes though. They really do see themselves as an isolated island. Where you can do shit in foreign countries and it have no effects back on the island. Its not just the son or daughter of immigrant leaders either its the ones who dont see past the home counties.

 

As an aside, was out with a few mates yesterday and we unsurprisingly had a good long chat about immigration etc. Not the rights/wrongs who is in out etc but putting it in context. Theres loads of threads on here about people wanting to leave the UK because its turning into a shithole etc. My own family are leaving after more years there than they lived here because they see it all turning to shit and its been a recent thing, although covid did emphasise the isolation with the rest of the family and the distances between them in England.
Anyway back to immigration and we mostly came to the conclusion that the immigrants (both legal and boat people) are ahead of the game compared to many of us. We can blame bennies and immigration policies and all sorts but we are looking at it from our perspective, not theirs. They are seeing collapse in their places and getting out to fuck asap. It takes a lot to uproot and move, nobody would voluntarily cross the channel in a small boat, nobody would live on a fucking tent in a city centre.
All this is relative, the level of collapse in their home countries is of greater magnitude than potholes, nobody answering phone calls and five quid coffees but its all relative.
One of the things Ive said on here a few times and say a lot in real life is that if you are going to panic, panic first. Perhaps the waves of immigration are exactly that, the people panicing first, the ones closest to the coal face as it were, the ones who will see immediate effects long before we do.

I don't really care about the immigrant 'perspective'. They should not be allowed in. The navy should be turning boats away in the Channel. I'm not interested in the immigrant story etc. 

Edited May 4 by Errol

[belfastchild]

Just now, Errol said:

I don't really care about the immigrant 'perspective'. They should not be allowed in. The navy should be turning boats away in the Channel. I'm not interested in the immigrant story etc. 

Cheers. Completely missed my point.

[Errol]

8 minutes ago, belfastchild said:

Cheers. Completely missed my point.

I understand the main point. I decided to leave a while ago. 

Anyone with means should be leaving, in my view.

Edited May 4 by Errol

[belfastchild]

10 minutes ago, Errol said:

I'm not interested in the immigrant story etc. 

 

2 minutes ago, Errol said:

I understand the main point. I decided to leave a while ago. 

Anyone with means should be leaving, in my view.

Id ask you why but Im not interested ;-)

[Errol]

46 minutes ago, belfastchild said:

 

Id ask you why but Im not interested ;-)

Agree. The places I consider as valid alternatives don't care about your reasons or who you are provided you have money and/or decent employment.

[ThoughtCriminal]

China's high speed rail network. Only took them 12 years to build 28000 miles of track.

HS2 was announced in 2013, projected to be finished by 2033. Maybe. So 20+ years to build 140 miles of track Vs 12 years to build 28000 miles of track. Same applies to every other area of infrastructure.

I also learned recently that China builds it's merchant and fishing fleet for dual purpose. So their fishing vessels and cargo ships can be quickly fitted with missile launchers and guns. They also have reinforced decks so they can become troop carriers and assault ships. So their navy isn't 370 ships, it's around 38000.

It's 200 BC and the West is Greece, Asia is Rome.

[sleepwello'nights]

2 hours ago, belfastchild said:

They are seeing collapse in their places and getting out to fuck asap. It takes a lot to uproot and move, nobody would voluntarily cross the channel in a small boat, nobody would live on a fucking tent in a city centre.

All this is relative, the level of collapse in their home countries is of greater magnitude than potholes, nobody answering phone calls and five quid coffees but its all relative.
 

Are you sure. As I see it they are coming to Western nations because they can see a better way of life. They are coming to improve their lives but I don't think its because the countries they are coming from are collapsing. 

Their countries of origin may be far less prosperous, harsher and more intolerant places to live. From what I read the economies and societies in those countries is not collapsing and getting worse.

Even if you are correct where are the better places we can go to?

[Loki]

5 hours ago, Harley said:

This has now been posted in every financial X account I follow.  Never seen such wide coverage before.  

Makes you wonder why...

[Virgil Caine]

3 hours ago, belfastchild said:

Like Priti Patel saying about Brexit food checks and starving the Irish out.

Yes, that went down well.

It does some up some of the 'British' attitudes though. They really do see themselves as an isolated island. Where you can do shit in foreign countries and it have no effects back on the island. Its not just the son or daughter of immigrant leaders either its the ones who dont see past the home counties.

 

As an aside, was out with a few mates yesterday and we unsurprisingly had a good long chat about immigration etc. Not the rights/wrongs who is in out etc but putting it in context. Theres loads of threads on here about people wanting to leave the UK because its turning into a shithole etc. My own family are leaving after more years there than they lived here because they see it all turning to shit and its been a recent thing, although covid did emphasise the isolation with the rest of the family and the distances between them in England.
Anyway back to immigration and we mostly came to the conclusion that the immigrants (both legal and boat people) are ahead of the game compared to many of us. We can blame bennies and immigration policies and all sorts but we are looking at it from our perspective, not theirs. They are seeing collapse in their places and getting out to fuck asap. It takes a lot to uproot and move, nobody would voluntarily cross the channel in a small boat, nobody would live on a fucking tent in a city centre.
All this is relative, the level of collapse in their home countries is of greater magnitude than potholes, nobody answering phone calls and five quid coffees but its all relative.
One of the things Ive said on here a few times and say a lot in real life is that if you are going to panic, panic first. Perhaps the waves of immigration are exactly that, the people panicing first, the ones closest to the coal face as it were, the ones who will see immediate effects long before we do.

Unfortunately for the Irish what happens in the Home Counties tends to have a lasting impact on Ireland sooner or later. It was not only England’s future that set at the Battle of Hastings in 1066 . Ireland’s long term fate was also being determined there too. 

[Joncrete Cungle]

Some hefty price drops on leased cars, especially wankpanzers. Being a skinflint bodder it's not an area I take much interest in.

If you are paying from post tax / NI PAYE it looks a horrendous drain on your bank account?

[Plan-b]

6 minutes ago, Joncrete Cungle said:

wankpanzers

[JMD]

On 03/05/2024 at 14:15, Mandalorian said:

 

I knew it was religious!  (Therefore irrational!)

--My contemplation upon your critique for my preference for divis.--

We all endeavour to find our own individual paths toward financial peace.   Amen, and bless you Brother.

[Chewing Grass]

28 minutes ago, Joncrete Cungle said:

Some hefty price drops on leased cars, especially wankpanzers. Being a skinflint bodder it's not an area I take much interest in.

If you are paying from post tax / NI PAYE it looks a horrendous drain on your bank account?

Two of my kids have lease cars, being tight they took the leases out on 6000 miles per annum, they have just realised how expensive that is if they do more so have started driving around in their old cars.

Leasing was the last throw of the dice for western high cost volume manufacturers as they got more coin on credit via pumped prices.

Now everyone is skint with zero equity in their tin the car market will collapse.

[Joncrete Cungle]

18 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

Two of my kids have lease cars, being tight they took the leases out on 6000 miles per annum, they have just realised how expensive that is if they do more so have started driving around in their old cars.

Leasing was the last throw of the dice for western high cost volume manufacturers as they got more coin on credit via pumped prices.

Now everyone is skint with zero equity in their tin the car market will collapse.

Explains why my mate with the leased range rover is always complaining about being skint!

[Onsamui]

7 hours ago, Harley said:

This has now been posted in every financial X account I follow.  Never seen such wide coverage before.  But then it's epic.

I thought it was Leslie Nielson doing a naked gun clip.

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Joncrete Cungle said:

Explains why my mate with the leased range rover is always complaining about being skint!

Its insane.The insurance alone on them is more in a year than i spend keeping a car on the road over 5 years all in.Its very very rare i see an older car than mine now wherever i go,its 17 years old.Passed last MOT,just a spring  and two tyres in a year.Pretty obvious though going forward its going to be very hard to do very cheap motoring.Mine has cost me £17 a week since i was 19 all in.I kept a record,thats buying,repairing ,not insurance and car tax.

[PETR4]

15 hours ago, sancho panza said:

one person cant monitor 300 stocks

Correct..... but! You can with a Bloomberg terminal and Excel application interface!

I'm going to guess from a military and paramedic background you have never used one?

They are a bit pricey if the company is not paying for it, though people have had a crack at putting one together without the subscription.

https://medium.com/@felixbaron/how-to-build-your-bloomberg-terminal-for-free-ff7df730b88e

https://www.businessinsider.com/how-to-create-your-own-bloomberg-style-terminal-for-under-1000-2010-2

For someone like yourself @sancho panza it would be like conducting the whole orchestra for a financial symphony 

Edited May 4 by PETR4

[PETR4]

22 hours ago, goldbug9999 said:

Good to see that the people in charge know what they are doing ....

 

Basically he can't come out with the truth that fiat money is "made" at zero cost. You can imagine the calamity it will cause when all the interest groups realise the government can give them money for free because they are "worth it"!

It's all part of the slight of hand that fiat money has value. Issuing money as loans locks in the value proposition of ensuring the money is put to productive use. Whether that is right or wrong is a large debate on it's own.

As noted by others time = money and as each person is an economic unit issuing a fixed lump sum to each person for the number of days they live could be the basis of a new economic system. However the switch over would be horrendous!

[Funn3r]

6 hours ago, Errol said:

I don't really care about the immigrant 'perspective'. They should not be allowed in. 

What is actually wrong with "immigrants"? Is there some sort of natural law that says wherever you're born, you have to live your life? What if you don't like it and prefer somewhere else?

As I've said many times both my children are immigrants (from UK gone somewhere else) and it is all working fine for them and adding value to the places they now live in. 

[Joncrete Cungle]

56 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Its insane.The insurance alone on them is more in a year than i spend keeping a car on the road over 5 years all in.Its very very rare i see an older car than mine now wherever i go,its 17 years old.Passed last MOT,just a spring  and two tyres in a year.Pretty obvious though going forward its going to be very hard to do very cheap motoring.Mine has cost me £17 a week since i was 19 all in.I kept a record,thats buying,repairing ,not insurance and car tax.

It is mental. His monthly payment is more than our mortgage plus maximum allowed overpayment every month. Before insurance, road tax, fuel etc. Then he moans he can't SIPP or save any money each month.