Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 9)

[HousePriceMania]

28 minutes ago, WICAO said:

One more step taken to never returning to the UK - all wealth extracted from the ISA and moved to Australia.

Have you ever been in a frying pan ?

[WICAO]

4 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Have you ever been in a frying pan ?

The move to Australia is very much working for us.  Others mileage may vary.

What are the negatives over the UK for you?

[PETR4]

24 minutes ago, Long time lurking said:

The more astute will notice the subliminal message on the cover or is it just a coincidence ?

Benjamin Franklin's eye as the Eye of Providence. Interesting.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eye_of_Providence

https://www.bbc.com/culture/article/20201112-the-eye-of-providence-the-symbol-with-a-secret-meaning

Appologies for the BBC link 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benjamin_Franklin

I always struggle with believing there is a single global group orchestrating events across all nations over centuries, as how would "membership" be maintained? I suppose an ideaology doesn't need that. We need to start a separate thread to discuss who is in charge at the very top!!

 

Edited April 26 by PETR4

[HousePriceMania]

6 minutes ago, WICAO said:

The move to Australia is very much working for us.  Others mileage may vary.

What are the negatives over the UK for you?

Spiders that'll kill you

Spiders bigger than your hand

Croco-fucking-diles

Snakes that will bit your knob of

Same western spiv bankers and their debt bubble

Same unelected head of state

Women who act like bloks

The fucking rain, never fucking stops raining in Oz.

 

Seriously though, it's the same set of globalist WEF bankers shills in charge all over the western world, I dont see moving to somewhere like that will protect you ultimately, they'll still send you or your kids out to die for king and country.

Sure, the weather is better and it's got a lot of beaches, but so's Spain and you'd be able to give someone 1000 Euros to not find you when the draft board come a knocking. 

[Long time lurking]

1 hour ago, PETR4 said:

Benjamin Franklin's eye as the Eye of Providence. Interesting.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eye_of_Providence

https://www.bbc.com/culture/article/20201112-the-eye-of-providence-the-symbol-with-a-secret-meaning

Appologies for the BBC link 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benjamin_Franklin

I always struggle with believing there is a single global group orchestrating events across all nations over centuries, as how would "membership" be maintained? I suppose an ideaoligy doesn't need that. We need to start a separate thread to discuss who is in charge at the very top!!

 

Did you ever see the video interview of some Israeli government figure from back around 2018 where he talked about how four regions of the Ukraine could be the answer to Israel's problems of a greater Israel in the middle east ,i.e they would/could be Greater Israel ,Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk, Odesa 

Edit ,i`m under the bed if anyone wants me this was at the top of my feed 

 

Edited April 26 by Long time lurking

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Mandalorian said:

That was a party political broadcast on behalf of the M&S party.

You been buying M&S shares now?

Funny enough i nearly did near the bottom,but didnt.Bad mistake.

[wherebee]

10 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Spiders that'll kill you - TRUE

Spiders bigger than your hand - TRUE, BUT NOT THE SAME ONES AS ABOVE

Croco-fucking-diles - TRUE, BUT ONLY IF YOU STUPID AND LIVE UP NORTH

Snakes that will bit your knob of - NOT TRUE, THEY WILL BITE YOU ANYWHERE

Same western spiv bankers and their debt bubble - TRUE AND THEN SOME

Same unelected head of state - TRUE BUT LIKELY TO CHANGE

Women who act like bloks - NOT TRUE, LOTS OF HOTTIES LEFT COMPARE TO THE UK

The fucking rain, never fucking stops raining in Oz. - NOT TRUE, SOMETIMES IT BURNS YOUR HOUSE DOWN INSTEAD OF RAINING

 

Seriously though, it's the same set of globalist WEF bankers shills in charge all over the western world, I dont see moving to somewhere like that will protect you ultimately, they'll still send you or your kids out to die for king and country.

Sure, the weather is better and it's got a lot of beaches, but so's Spain and you'd be able to give someone 1000 Euros to not find you when the draft board come a knocking. 

 

[Formerly]

1 hour ago, Mandalorian said:

The key thing for me is the statistic I've seen somewhere.

To be a NET taxpayer in this country you need to earn something like £52,000 a year.

Anything below that and you are a NET consumer of taxpayers' money. 

So basically everything is paid for by 9% of earners.  Unsustainable.  And even more so when Labour get in.

Do you have a source for that. I'd imagine a lot earning >£50k contribute to pensions to bring them below that threshold. I'm one though the threshold for me is £43k (Scotland). My salary is above 52k - am I still a net tax payer?

My point is that 9% paying for every thing is probably optimistic. It's probably far less than 9%.

[WICAO]

2 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Spiders that'll kill you

Spiders bigger than your hand

Croco-fucking-diles

Snakes that will bit your knob of

Same western spiv bankers and their debt bubble

Same unelected head of state

Women who act like bloks

The fucking rain, never fucking stops raining in Oz.

 

Seriously though, it's the same set of globalist WEF bankers shills in charge all over the western world, I dont see moving to somewhere like that will protect you ultimately, they'll still send you or your kids out to die for king and country.

Sure, the weather is better and it's got a lot of beaches, but so's Spain and you'd be able to give someone 1000 Euros to not find you when the draft board come a knocking. 

I very much spread my risk as far as is practicable and take practical precautions but I'm not going full on "tin full hat".  My choice and if the world ends I'll look pretty silly but I'm not sure I want to live through an TEOTWAWKI scenario anyway to be honest.

A black swan less worse than that and to me it seems Australia is far better positioned than the UK.  The country has far less debt and a lot more natural resources to name but two.

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Mandalorian said:

Best thing to do is opt out of playing the game.

Do minimal work and pay the minimal tax within the law.  Giving up full time work is the best thing I ever did.  But then I am a lazy bastard.

You can only respond to what they actually do and make your decisions at the time.  And I made mine when I saw what my tax was paying for.

I did,i retired at 48.I had a 6 year retirement from 29 to 35 as well where i pretty much shagged my way around England and Scotland using the new dating apps,i tried to do birds in every county,but missed a few,i was like a machine,crackers really but i could write several books on those years and the situations i got myself in.Got sick of listening to Dido as i nailed them all though  .

I doubt il ever work again,my job now is to fight this war for my family against the enemy.I guess humans have gone through this many many times,nothing new under the sun after all.

[Axeman123]

1 hour ago, WICAO said:

One more step taken to never returning to the UK - all wealth extracted from the ISA and moved to Australia.

Have you considered Singapore for some of it? I wouldn't feel at all safe with everything in Oz.

• Totalitarian govt keen to enforce collectivist solutions faces its first recession in decades
• Dependence on China means they could get sanctioned to fuck by the yanks

[Mandalorian]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Im only ribbing you ,your points are very valid for most people,but il never ever get out of bed and want to be most people,win or lose.This thread is about trying to be better.I think on the ISA allowance they will likely cap it like pensions.£200k or something.Taking everyones capital is all they have left.The noose is tightening,even on us.

The problem with that is what happens when you hit £200,000?

Which shares move from the protection of the tax shelter?  How is that decided?  What happens if it drops back below?  Can you re-buy them?

Minefield.

Easier to just abolish the ISA completely.

2 hours ago, wherebee said:

My portfolio has outperformed the S&P 500 for the first time this year (i.e. YTD return is better than the S&P YTD return).  And the miners have not even begun to run yet.

Tell me that in 20 years!

[Mandalorian]

34 minutes ago, PETR4 said:

I always struggle with believing there is a single global group orchestrating events across all nations over centuries, as how would "membership" be maintained? I suppose an ideaology doesn't need that. We need to start a separate thread to discuss who is in charge at the very top!!

 

David Icke goes on about this.  He calls it the bloodline.

[Long time lurking]

33 minutes ago, PETR4 said:

Benjamin Franklin's eye as the Eye of Providence. Interesting.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eye_of_Providence

https://www.bbc.com/culture/article/20201112-the-eye-of-providence-the-symbol-with-a-secret-meaning

Appologies for the BBC link 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benjamin_Franklin

I always struggle with believing there is a single global group orchestrating events across all nations over centuries, as how would "membership" be maintained? I suppose an ideaology doesn't need that. We need to start a separate thread to discuss who is in charge at the very top!!

 

I always new the control they had over the media ,but i was always in the same boat as you regarding how they could do it to the extent that was claimed 

I think the below is just a small section of a larger warren 

 

[Mandalorian]

19 minutes ago, Formerly said:

Do you have a source for that. I'd imagine a lot earning >£50k contribute to pensions to bring them below that threshold. I'm one though the threshold for me is £43k (Scotland). My salary is above 52k - am I still a net tax payer?

My point is that 9% paying for every thing is probably optimistic. It's probably far less than 9%.

Short answer.  No.  But there was a post on Twitter (I know) where someone broke it down for the average family and did the maths.  Included kids' education, healthcare, road maintenance (lol), the lot.  Looked pretty plausible tbh.

 

Quick google found this: 

https://www.reddit.com/r/UKPersonalFinance/comments/12oh51a/is_there_a_calculator_where_you_can_see_whether/

Edited April 26 by Mandalorian

[WICAO]

5 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

Have you considered Singapore for some of it? I wouldn't feel at all safe with everything in Oz.

• Totalitarian govt keen to enforce collectivist solutions faces its first recession in decades
• Dependence on China means they could get sanctioned to fuck by the yanks

Definitely still investing globally and still have plenty of wealth outside of Australia.  That part of my strategy is unchanged but I am now treating Australia as my home market now.  Just manoeuvring myself as we expect we'll be here a long time and want to be tax efficient and low expense.  ISAs are not tax efficient here at all.

To the average person on the street tax efficiency seems to come from main residence, Australian shares and Superannuation (a bit like a UK private pension).  Equivalent of State Pension is also means tested but they effectively ignore a large portion of your main residence in that assessment.

[Democorruptcy]

Sounds like Trump wants to try an Erdogan style approach to central banking:

Quote

 

Former President Donald Trump’s political operatives are putting together a plan that would give him unprecedented influence over the Federal Reserve, including a plan that could make him an “acting” central bank board member, according to a Wall Street Journal report.

The plans, which the Journal report described as highly secretive, are part of a 10-page document that suggests Trump — if elected — would be consulted on interest rate decisions. In addition, the Treasury Department would be used as an added check and balance to oversee the Fed’s bond-buying activities.

Along with those proposals, the draft contends that Trump could remove current Fed Chair Jerome Powell from office and require that Fed policy be aligned with the administration’s goals. While in office, Trump harshly criticized Powell and his fellow central bankers as they were raising interest rates and reportedly considered ousting him.

Trump campaign officials told the Journal that the draft proposals shouldn’t be considered “official.” It’s unclear what authority the president would have to take such bold steps on a Fed that traditionally has sought to protect its activities from outside political pressure.

A Fed spokesperson declined to comment on the report.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/26/trump-advisors-are-considering-plans-to-dramatically-revamp-the-fed-wsj-report-says.html

 

 

 

[Harley]

3 hours ago, sancho panza said:

intetresting to newmont getting bid heavily last night.we're now nearly in the green on that.is that the insto money arriving?

Saw it on the turn a few weeks back but didn't react as focussed on GDGB and the other ETFs instead.  Would have been a nice add though and a nicer chart to follow than say GDGB.  Maybe the end of the pullback as technically it was a strong move yesterday.  Hopefully a pull back to fill yesterday's gap in price for a better entry should we choose to dabble in stocks rather than ETFs (which also strengthened).

 

Did no harm buying the day or so before ex-div for a change!

 

Edited April 26 by Harley

[Harley]

22 minutes ago, WICAO said:

Definitely still investing globally and still have plenty of wealth outside of Australia.  That part of my strategy is unchanged but I am now treating Australia as my home market now.  Just manoeuvring myself as we expect we'll be here a long time and want to be tax efficient and low expense.  ISAs are not tax efficient here at all.

To the average person on the street tax efficiency seems to come from main residence, Australian shares and Superannuation (a bit like a UK private pension).  Equivalent of State Pension is also means tested but they effectively ignore a large portion of your main residence in that assessment.

Do you residents get to mitigate the Aussie WHT?   A bit off-putting for me when I was div investing.

[Axeman123]

18 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Sounds like Trump wants to try an Erdogan style approach to central banking:

Arguably it is just continuing what team Biden is doing by less obvious methods, mostly involving the % of short dated bills issued by the Treasury under Yellen (AIUI). Financial conditions are much looser than Powell wants them already.

[WICAO]

3 minutes ago, Harley said:

Do you residents get to mitigate the Aussie WHT?   A bit off-putting for me when I was div investing.

Not an expert but what I currently understand - DYOR - etc...

Generally, as I now understand it as a resident dividends of Australian shares outside of Superannuation are fully taxed effectively at the same rates as earnings.  No ISAs or equivalent.  But, a credit is given for the tax the company has already paid on its earnings which makes a big difference.  They call them Franking or Imputation Credits.  I understand that Labour partly lost an election over them so they seem pretty safe for now...

As a resident I don't pay any withholding tax on Australian shares.  I'd guess if you were a resident without a Tax File Number you would but I can't see how you could live here as a resident without a TFN.

[Long time lurking]

 

[AWW]

3 hours ago, Mandalorian said:

Best thing to do is opt out of playing the game.

Do minimal work and pay the minimal tax within the law.  Giving up full time work is the best thing I ever did.  But then I am a lazy bastard.

You can only respond to what they actually do and make your decisions at the time.  And I made mine when I saw what my tax was paying for.

This is easier said than done for those with a family to support.

I dump everything they allow me to into my SIPP, I open a new ISA and LISA every year, I put rainy day cash into low coupon Gilts, I buy CGT free coins, yet they still do me for tens of thousands in income tax each year and how much more in VAT and myriad stealth taxes, because I have to take enough income to support my family. Keeping it below the personal allowance, even the 40% bracket which I used to be able to do, is impossible with current inflation and frozen thresholds.

[Harley]

1 hour ago, WICAO said:

Not an expert but what I currently understand - DYOR - etc...

Generally, as I now understand it as a resident dividends of Australian shares outside of Superannuation are fully taxed effectively at the same rates as earnings.  No ISAs or equivalent.  But, a credit is given for the tax the company has already paid on its earnings which makes a big difference.  They call them Franking or Imputation Credits.  I understand that Labour partly lost an election over them so they seem pretty safe for now...

As a resident I don't pay any withholding tax on Australian shares.  I'd guess if you were a resident without a Tax File Number you would but I can't see how you could live here as a resident without a TFN.

Ta.  I thought WHT was higher for UK residents but apparently 15% (so still worth it for a number of companies):

The above is from the HMRC forum which can be quite useful at times for UK taxpayers.  Of course the tax credit is not available for shares held in a tax wrapped account.

I may be wrong but I seem to remember no WHT on companies like Yancoal Australia as they were foreign (e.g. HK) domiciled.

I'm mainly a fund guy now, with more sociable hours!  In the old days I would use my annoying 03:00 awakenings by having my trading app and trade list by my side!

 

Edited April 26 by Harley

[Harley]

45 minutes ago, AWW said:

This is easier said than done for those with a family to support.

I dump everything they allow me to into my SIPP, I open a new ISA and LISA every year, I put rainy day cash into low coupon Gilts, I buy CGT free coins, yet they still do me for tens of thousands in income tax each year and how much more in VAT and myriad stealth taxes, because I have to take enough income to support my family. Keeping it below the personal allowance, even the 40% bracket which I used to be able to do, is impossible with current inflation and frozen thresholds.

I'm working on all that atm but have a chance as no kids to look after and a lowish cost lifestyle in a newish sort of retirement (at least from PAYE).  I went through the various allowances here a while back and you've listed some of them. 

I was reviewing asset allocation modelling for investing this week and then realised I really needed to structure things to maximise these allowances where reasonable (i.e. not at the expense of sound investment returns) and for the asset allocation optimisation to mostly follow.  But again, not letting the tax tail wag the investing returns dog.

An example is the starting rate for savings.  £5k tax free pa in certain investments which includes gilts and corporate bonds (either individually or in a fund meeting the 60% rule).  That's £100k at 5%.  Ignoring other concerns, I could hold up to that outside a SIPP than in a SIPP, if the asset allocation model said to hold them for diversification (and/or to contribute towards "needs" in a required low vol (held to maturity) way).  Could use the 25% tax free towards that and then take out £12,570 (personal allowance) pa asap before state pension age as well.  

Just an example.  Not fully validated and depends on available funds and the order of preference in options (e.g. atm ISA contribs would be #1 for me).

Edited April 26 by Harley