Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 9)

[nirvana]

36 minutes ago, Harley said:

Been poorly lately

nettles boss.....get some nettles down ya.......I'm on the nettles now and never felt better 

oops will update other thread too

PS drinking nettle juice outta my coffee jar too, yum yum, up the tramp massive 

[Mandalorian]

1 hour ago, HousePriceMania said:

Nope, it's the UK bond yield.

Poor Stewy

[DurhamBorn]

https://www.kedglobal.com/automobiles/newsView/ked202404250017

https://www.kedglobal.com/electric-vehicles/newsView/ked202404050017

Obvious hybrids are going to replace ICE only first,EV  will be much later than expected.Hybrids use 10% to 15% more PGMs than ICE cars.I reckon PGMs will move into a big deficit later in the year,even bigger if Russian mines dont get back to full production.I would think we will see hybrids dates pushed back by governments soon.

[Harley]

2 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

Nope, it's the UK bond yield.

Tidy as I was looking at gilts and corporate bonds to use up the "starting savings rate" of £5k tax free.  So £100k at 5% (if you can get it). 

Not quite a mediocre public sector pension level mind, that'll be more like £500k at 5% for £25k. 

Meanwhile what's the DC average, £40k?  Don't know what happened to all that extra money they're meant to have earnt. 

Presumably private sector knobs are more spendthrift.  Or.....

[Majorpain]

1 hour ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Looks like stagflation is here.

 

 

GDP 1.6%

Inflation 3.7%

So Real GDP "growth" of -2.1%, for which they are printing $1t every 3 months just to keep the wheels on.

Good luck Jerome......

[Errol]

 

 

Edited April 25 by Errol

[Long time lurking]

3 hours ago, Onsamui said:

Banks Wage War On Gun Ownership | Armstrong Economics Governments can view your transactions. Banks globally are voluntarily providing your personal data to the government, but soon, there will be no need for a middleman through the use of CBDC as the governments can track your transactions and debank you in real time.

It`s like clock work, these story appear every tine time Russia and China talk about a new financial system based in digital transactions 

[AWW]

There has been some chatter on the thread about holding CSH2 (some here, @Jesus Wept IIRC, having a significant holding) as it's a "money market fund" and perhaps the ticker leads people to believe that it is similar to holding cash.

I looked into CSH2 and found that it's not a money market fund - it is a swap fund.  Typically it will track SONIA and the price chart looks anything but volatile, but it is riskier than a MM fund or cash. Whether the additional 1% return on top of receiving interest for holding cash in your SIPP is worth that small risk is obviously up to the buyer.

[AWW]

Also some recent chatter about opening a SIPP on a platform other than HL.

I just opened a SIPP with II and transferred ⅓ of my HL SIPP straight into it.  I like the free regular investing feature on II (well, it's not free, but the sub is only £5.99 a month, vs £11.95 a trade on HL).  I will hold the boring bit of my portfolio in II (a small collection of various equity and energy ETFs) and the "fun" stuff in HL. It will be interesting to have such an obvious performance comparison between my stock-picking ability and Mr Market's each year-end.

FWIW there seems to be very little difference between the HL and II apps.

[Long time lurking]

2 hours ago, Harley said:

Been the case for a while if you dyor!

The beaute is higher real than reported inflation works to both jimmy gdp (so lower than reported - stag) and reduces the 'flation out of stagflation.

Things are really bad by the time these mystery numbers show it!

All sorted 

 

[Harley]

31 minutes ago, AWW said:

Also some recent chatter about opening a SIPP on a platform other than HL.

I just opened a SIPP with II and transferred ⅓ of my HL SIPP straight into it.  I like the free regular investing feature on II (well, it's not free, but the sub is only £5.99 a month, vs £11.95 a trade on HL).  I will hold the boring bit of my portfolio in II (a small collection of various equity and energy ETFs) and the "fun" stuff in HL. It will be interesting to have such an obvious performance comparison between my stock-picking ability and Mr Market's each year-end.

FWIW there seems to be very little difference between the HL and II apps.

We hold a variety of accounts at all the main brokers except Saxo who we tried but found their international service not as good as advertised (e.g. needed to request boring stocks to be added to their permitted trade list).

Your biggest difference with an II SIPP will be the ability to reduce forex fees and/or diversify (by holding direct) currencies.  That and market access.  HL has issues with pricing some portfolio stocks, mainly overseas ones.  They both rip you off on Forex compared to IB.  At least II can be more "one and done".

Yep, the mobile apps share similar functionality.  IB's one (no SIPP though) is very different.

IMO HL handles partial drawdowns better in that it maintains a separate account whereas II apparently pools it with separate tracking.  Both were fine executing drawdowns though.  IMO, better info on HL for pensions, funds, etc.

IB seems to have the best security.  Neither of the other two have 2FA, II texts/emails you a code FFS.  Degirio has 2FA.  IB uses it's own protcols.  AJB won't allow VPN access, worse still, only sometimes!

BTW, there's a £10pcm extra charge by II for SIPPS.

PS:  Market access means (for us) chosen exchange access, not via LSE International (AJB) or random choice for multiple listings (HL).

Edited April 25 by Harley

[Harley]

32 minutes ago, AWW said:

There has been some chatter on the thread about holding CSH2 (some here, @Jesus Wept IIRC, having a significant holding) as it's a "money market fund" and perhaps the ticker leads people to believe that it is similar to holding cash.

I looked into CSH2 and found that it's not a money market fund - it is a swap fund.  Typically it will track SONIA and the price chart looks anything but volatile, but it is riskier than a MM fund or cash. Whether the additional 1% return on top of receiving interest for holding cash in your SIPP is worth that small risk is obviously up to the buyer.

Yep, a few ETFs are like that, including ones you'd not expect. 

For MM, Lyxor do overnight but again, a bit opaque.  Some like PIMCO are actually ultra short bond funds of various bonds.  Some pay interest monthly, some accumulate.  Some are in GBP while others are in foreign currencies.  Not that many overall.

[Pip321]

2 hours ago, BurntBread said:

Where did all the money go that came from selling debt to minors as though it were sweeties?

(1) Building flashy new departments and student accommodation (which also required the universities to take on large amounts of debt). In the case of Nottingham, the flashy new "net-zero" wooden chemistry department had to be built twice, as it burned to the ground the first time around.

(2) Paying the salaries of an increasing army of new administrators, plus paying vice-chancellors six-figure salaries (because they are now equivalent to entrepreneurs and private-sector captains of industry). However, probably most of the money went on large numbers of lower-paid people.

Anyway, that's my impression from the outside, but as someone who does have contact with a couple of universities.

They have monetised education….money just swishing around not adding value but increasing the GDP. Lecturers, light bulbs, books, student loans, fees etc etc all generating paper money and tax thereon albeit at a cost. 

Thats why they want everyone to have a degree even just for a basic analyst job which could be done on an old style apprenticeship. Even nursing etc could all be done to degree standard but on the job….but they want to make everyone battery hens.

The students leave with debts so have to work for life…it’s a fantastic scam. It even manages to gather back some of the printing by collecting in in tax and spending by all involved. 

[SpectrumFX]

20 minutes ago, Harley said:

We hold a variety of accounts at all the main brokers except Saxo who we tried but found their international service not as good as advertised (e.g. needed to request boring stocks to be added to their permitted trade list).

Your biggest difference with an II SIPP will be the ability to reduce forex fees and/or diversify currencies.  That and market access.  HL has issues with pricing some portfolio stocks, mainly overseas ones.  

Yep, the mobile apps share similar functionality.  IB's one (no SIPP though) is very different.

IMO HL handles drawdown better in that it maintains a separate account whereas II apparently pools it.  Both were fine executing drawdowns though.  IMO, better info on HL for pensions, funds, etc.

IB seems to have the best security.  Neither of the other two have 2FA, II texts/emails you a code FFS.  Degirio has 2FA.  IB uses it's own protcols.  AJB won't allow VPN access, worse still, only sometimes!

BTW, there's a £10pcm extra charge by II for SIPPS.

PS:  Market access means (for us) chosen exchange access, not via LSE International (AJB) or random choice for multiple listings (HL).

HL can do 2FA, and will turn it on if you ask them to. I requested it in a moment of paranoia, and now they text a code to my phone every time I log on.

[Loki]

4 hours ago, Mandalorian said:

No.  Zoom out

Is it like this?

https://tradingeconomics.com/argentina/stock-market

[Harley]

1 minute ago, SpectrumFX said:

HL can do 2FA, and will turn it on if you ask them to. I requested it in a moment of paranoia, and now they text a code to my phone every time I log on.

Cheers.  Text though?  Like II.  I take 2FA to mean using an authenticator app.  Text codes are not so secure (SIM intercept, etc).

[DurhamBorn]

23 minutes ago, Harley said:

We hold a variety of accounts at all the main brokers except Saxo who we did but found their international service not as good as advertised (e.g. needed to request boring stocks to be added to their permitted trade list).

Your biggest difference with an II SIPP will be the ability to reduce forex fees and/or diversify currencies.  That and market access.  HL has issues with pricing some portfolio stocks, mainly overseas ones.  

Yep, the mobile apps share similar functionality.  IB's one (no SIPP though) is very different.

IMO HL handles drawdown better in that it maintains a separate account whereas II apparently pools it.  Both were fine executing drawdowns though.  IMO, better info on HL for pensions, funds, etc.

IB seems to have the best security.  Neither of the other two have 2FA, II texts/emails you a code FFS.  Degirio has 2FA.  IB uses it's own protcols.  AJB won't allow VPN access, worse still, only sometimes!

BTW, there's a £10pcm extra charge by II for SIPPS.

Might be worth a thread handling drawdown etc and the different providers,could be a great resource for people as its crucial to get it right,and of course the nuances of taking lump sums instead of drawdown etc.As it stands i need to run ISAs down mostly due to IHT etc.When you say HL have a separate account what do you mean?

[DurhamBorn]

2 hours ago, Mandalorian said:

Poor Stewy

 

[Harley]

Just now, DurhamBorn said:

Might be worth a thread handling drawdown etc and the different providers,could be a great resource for people as its crucial to get it right,and of course the nuances of taking lump sums instead of drawdown etc.As it stands i need to run ISAs down mostly due to IHT etc.When you say HL have a separate account what do you mean?

An account of ours has a SIPP account and a SIPP Income Drawdown account. 

The Drawdown account has the 75% we could not take when taking the 25% tax free amount.

Any new contributions I assume would go in the SIPP account and a reallocation made to the Drawdown account should we then draw that down.

Looking just now on the app, contribution functionality is only available on the SIPP account.

[leonardratso]

6 minutes ago, Harley said:

An account of ours has a SIPP account and a SIPP Income Drawdown account. 

The Drawdown account has the 75% we could not take when taking the 25% tax free amount.

Any new contributions I assume would go in the SIPP account and a reallocation made to the Drawdown account should we then draw that down.

Looking just now on the app, contribution functionality is only available on the SIPP account.

Does that 25% stay as cash?

[Harley]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Might be worth a thread handling drawdown etc and the different providers,could be a great resource for people as its crucial to get it right,and of course the nuances of taking lump sums instead of drawdown etc.As it stands i need to run ISAs down mostly due to IHT etc.When you say HL have a separate account what do you mean?

I have read a lot about this on the web and would say none of it is 100% accurate.  By that, I include misleading sentences like the last one I read:

"You can still contribute £10,000 per tax year after you have started drawdown".

Misleading:

. Does not define drawdown (i.e. taking 25% tax free versus income, etc).

. You can only contribute up to £10,000 if you have sufficient "relevant earnings" (which are defined).

. You don't contribute up to £10k as that is the contribution gross of the basic rate tax credit.

. No discussion of the case of brought forward unused contributions.

. No discussion of the impact, or not, of employer contributions.

. Potential applicability of the recycling rules.

I think a thread kind of exists already.  I posted there but very lightly because as you can see it's all very case specific.  

TLDR:  Take professional advice!

Updated:  Taking 25% is apparently a crystallising event (so one source says!) but not drawdown per se in regard to future contributions.

Edited April 25 by Harley

[Harley]

8 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

Does that 25% stay as cash?

The 25% is the cash you take out.  Always been via bank transfer for us. What you do with it afterwards.......!

Edited April 25 by Harley

[leonardratso]

5 minutes ago, Harley said:

The 25% is the cash you take out.  What you do with it afterwards.......!

ah i see its already in drawdown. Yers, my bad.

[Harley]

8 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

ah i see its already in drawdown. Yers, my bad.

We go in hard at the max 25%, nothing less.  Get all you can or go home says us!    We have plenty of immediate and better uses for that 25% rather than dribbling it out in partials.

[Pip321]

23 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Might be worth a thread handling drawdown etc and the different providers,could be a great resource for people as its crucial to get it right,and of course the nuances of taking lump sums instead of drawdown etc.As it stands i need to run ISAs down mostly due to IHT etc.When you say HL have a separate account what do you mean?

I know a lot of people drawing down using partial amounts from the 25% tax free element and some from the main taxable part to maximise tax allowances. Some even recycle back into the SIPP but tbf usually only £2880 pa (max for a non earner) and there are a few tricks like that which are quite useful but very personal to individual circumstances. 

One thing to be really wary of it crystallising your SIPP (ie taking some money out) before you split some of the money because once you do crystallise it you can no longer split it. Maybe only important for big SIPPs but worth knowing. 

I wish I had know that because I would like to split my SIPP between the Pru, HL and AJB but I can’t anymore because it’s crystallised and therefore whilst I can move the SIPP, I can only do it in one whole amount.

It’s a little daft rule….and there are quite a few things like that which are useful to know.