Political betting thread.......

[Boon]

Looks like Kemi might be out, odds drifting, shame.

Would not be surprised if she decided to cut her losses - ie get into bed with another campaign in exchange for high-ranking job in the next cabinet.

Mordaunt's odds have come back in, maybe a lot of Tugendhats votes have gone for her.

[sancho panza]

3 hours ago, Boon said:

Looks like Kemi might be out, odds drifting, shame.

Would not be surprised if she decided to cut her losses - ie get into bed with another campaign in exchange for high-ranking job in the next cabinet.

Mordaunt's odds have come back in, maybe a lot of Tugendhats votes have gone for her.

Yeah she did well,conservatives were never going to elect someone who's actually conservative.Think she'd have had a chance at the next election,unlike the winning three.

Shame on the Tory MP's that they failed to reflect the views of the membership who the polling would have us beleive would have beaten the winning three in the membership vote.

[sancho panza]

My moeny now goes on a truss win against sunak in the final two.Can't see many Badenoch type conservatives voting for Mordaunt.I suspect Mordaunt's uplift came from Rishi supporters trying to manipulate the final two.His only real chance imho is vs Mordaunt who possibly more unelectable than him.

Also Truss momentum is clearly stronger.

 

edit to add betfair exchange punters taking the same view.Truss looks good for a 100% gain here.I'll stop laying sunak now and move to betting on Liz .

Although the banker bet is laying mordaunt at these prices.might be risky if rishi gets enough votes for mordaunt.

Edited July 19, 2022 by sancho panza

[sancho panza]

from guido

Truss it is then imho. 80% return potentially

[sancho panza]

Soem easy returns loming here.Kiwi Labour have a new leader that's even more unelectable than Jackboot Jacinda

ALready showing signs of delusion thinking it wasnt Jackboot's policies to blame for her resignation rather the bigots.

They''ll be a honeymoon where he looks like he has a vague chance which will be buying time but the market is tiny.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jan/22/new-zealand-labour-caucus-votes-in-chris-hipkins-to-succeed-jacinda-ardern

 

[AlfredTheLittle]

Ron de Santis at 4/1 for US president in 2024 seems a certainty. 

Anyone having a nibble?

 

 

[eek]

2 hours ago, AlfredTheLittle said:

Ron de Santis at 4/1 for US president in 2024 seems a certainty. 

Anyone having a nibble?

4/1 is way to low at the moment.

For de Santis to have a chance Trump needs to be removed from the field and at the moment he hasn't been and Trump's supporters will out to vote for him in the primaries.

Also Santis will have to deal with the fall out of Disney utterly screwing him over...

[AlfredTheLittle]

1 hour ago, eek said:

4/1 is way to low at the moment.

For de Santis to have a chance Trump needs to be removed from the field and at the moment he hasn't been and Trump's supporters will out to vote for him in the primaries.

Also Santis will have to deal with the fall out of Disney utterly screwing him over...

I had to block myself from Betfair because I lost too much, so don't take any tips from me. I can't see Trump beating DeSantis though, at the end of the day he lost to Biden (even if it was through cheating) and they're not going to give him another go.

[eek]

16 hours ago, AlfredTheLittle said:

I had to block myself from Betfair because I lost too much, so don't take any tips from me. I can't see Trump beating DeSantis though, at the end of the day he lost to Biden (even if it was through cheating) and they're not going to give him another go.

In normal circumstances I would agree with you but given what has happened to the Republican party over the past 7 or so years a lot of the remaining members are Trump first, Republican second.

A lot of middle of the road former Republican members are now Independent.

[sancho panza]

On 08/04/2023 at 18:20, AlfredTheLittle said:

I had to block myself from Betfair because I lost too much, so don't take any tips from me. I can't see Trump beating DeSantis though, at the end of the day he lost to Biden (even if it was through cheating) and they're not going to give him another go.

I think at the moment Trump beats De Santis handsomely one on one.Mainly because in states where it's open primary,then he'll do better.

De Santis is a great candidate.Currently,I'd put my moeny on Trump winning the n omintaiton versus De Santis.

I'd put moeny on De Santis beating any Dem challenger.

In terms of trump versus Dem challengers I'd be more circumspect with mymoeny depending who hes up agaisnt.

Think Reps win next Presi without  an incredible new Dem candidate

[sancho panza]

I thought Biden looked knackered in 2020 tbf......Trump will have issues with undecideds...De Santis???

[lid]

It'll be another Dominion inspired Biden victory no doubt 

[sancho panza]

and they're off.....

the searhc for value continues.

I see none here

or here

 

30% return seems almeost certain

[Yadda yadda yadda]

8 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

and they're off.....

the searhc for value continues.

I see none here

or here

 

30% return seems almeost certain

I agree that a turnout of less than 64.5% is near certain.

Interesting that the betting points to 135-140 seats for the Tories as the central projection - I haven't done the maths on that.

[Ash4781b]

5 hours ago, sancho panza said:

and they're off.....

the searhc for value continues.

I see none here

or here

 

30% return seems almeost certain

Yeah I need to look for value. Got 8-1 on a July-September election. I need to cash out actually on that in case it moves.

I was looking at no overall majority or some bet on Labour massively making a total mess of their campaign . I was looking at how many seats will conservatives lose?

Edited May 23 by Ash4781b

[Phil]

45 minutes ago, Ash4781b said:

Yeah I need to look for value. Got 8-1 on a July-September election. I need to cash out actually on that in case it moves.

I was looking at no overall majority or some bet on Labour massively making a total mess of their campaign . I was looking at how many seats will conservatives lose?

What does that even mean? 

[sancho panza]

3 hours ago, Ash4781b said:

Yeah I need to look for value. Got 8-1 on a July-September election. I need to cash out actually on that in case it moves.

I was looking at no overall majority or some bet on Labour massively making a total mess of their campaign . I was looking at how many seats will conservatives lose?

fummilyu enough a friend who has soem dcent form political betting was saying earlier he felt there was value in tht no overall majority bet at 8/1.

his reasoning based on low turnout ie tories will still get the dyed in the wool out but he reckons a lot of his contacts who were brexit red wall types wont be voting labour again.

reform may pick some up he reckons but his cetnral theisis is trying to work out where the turnout will drop and run the trades from there.

he was agreeing with me that there's little decent value bets apparent yet.

I've bet a ot on politics abroad in the past but uk and fptp make betting ehre a volatile business.

[sancho panza]

I think this thesis is bang on.Reform arent that right wing.

Huge scope for an anti globalist new party

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/05/23/election-will-shape-british-politics-for-generations/

This election heralds the death of the Thatcher-Blair era. A new populist Right will replace it

The vote this year will likely see a Labour landslide. But this will only be part one of a coming political unravelling

The election that Rishi Sunak has now called will almost certainly have a decisive result but it will not mark a true turning of the way in British politics. It is rather the last stand of an order that is passing, under growing assault from both sides of the new political spectrum.  

Barring a miracle, the Conservative Party will suffer a catastrophic and crushing defeat. Right now the busy betting market is whether they will do worse than their previous low of 156 seats (out of 670) in 1906. There is serious money being wagered that they will get fewer than 100 seats. 

The reason for this sentiment is not only Labour’s massive poll lead but the suggestion that there will also be large-scale tactical voting, making many apparently safe seats vulnerable to the Liberal Democrats as well as Labour. This outcome would not reflect any enthusiasm for Labour or for Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves’s agenda. 

In that there is a marked contrast to 1997 and 1945. The dominant sentiment among voters (probably leading to a low turnout) is weariness and contempt for the entire political and media class but with visceral hostility and fedupness for the Tories. In many ways this makes it more like 1906, something Keir Starmer and the Labour Party should bear in mind.

This will therefore be a decisive election, one that delivers a clear and crushing verdict on fourteen years of the Conservatives being in power but with no real enthusiasm for the alternative. What it will not be is a realigning election – one that reveals a new and transformed political landscape and voting pattern. 

However we did have such an election only five years ago, in 2019. So what has happened? In the years leading up to 2019 there was a realignment of voters, with the older issue of economics losing its salience and being replaced by the new one of nationalism versus cosmopolitan globalism. 

In 2019 the Tory Party leaned into that realignment and won over a lot of new voters, in parts of the country they had not reached before. This achieved this thanks to promises of getting Brexit done, levelling up the North and Midlands while moving away from free markets, and controlling and reducing immigration. 

Simultaneously they held on to voters who combined cosmopolitanism (Remain voters) with support for free markets, because they had the bonus of facing Jeremy Corbyn. 

Had the Conservatives followed through on that, then the new alignment revealed in 2019 would have been consolidated this time. The Conservatives would have made further gains in the North and Midlands but lost seats in the suburban South East and in the South West, to both Labour and the Liberal Democrats. The result would have been much tighter and the new alignment and division would have become even clearer, with the Tories a moderate national populist party. 

This of course has not happened. The political and media class refused to accept the new alignment and the promises of the 2019 manifesto were simply ignored, while Starmer abandoned the popular parts of Corbyn’s agenda (the Left economics) as well as the unpopular part (the radical anti-Western foreign policy). Hence the deep disillusionment of many voters. 

In the case of the Conservative Party, media figures, politicians, and donors all refused to follow up the logic of the 2019 election, seeing it as a one-off produced by Brexit rather than as a realignment. 

This took two forms. Some rejected the nationalism and cultural conservatism while continuing to promote a kind of technocratic liberalism in economics. Others accepted the nationalism, but rejected the idea of things like levelling up and immigration controls in favour of reinvigorated free-market radicalism. 

This combination, personified by Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak, alienated two thirds of the voting coalition of 2019 and left them with a Thatcherite rump. Refusing to accept the inevitable loss of one third of the 2019 electoral coalition while looking to expand the opposite third has meant they have lost both. 

That, plus exhaustion after fourteen years in office and refusing to accept or even address the accelerating breakdown and general uselessness of most of the British state, means that they are doomed.

On July 5 there will be many people arguing that normal service has been resumed after the episode of populist chaos caused by David Cameron’s decision to have a Brexit referendum. This will be a huge and (for those making it) disastrous misjudgment. 

The 1906 election may offer a foretaste of what is to come. The enormous Liberal majority turned out to be the last great stand of the old Gladstonian liberalism. They won a landslide mainly because the Tories (Unionists) were utterly split over Tariff Reform and deeply unpopular after a long period in office. 

Only four years later, in 1910, they lost their majority to a resurgent and now united Conservative Party (the Tariff Reformers having triumphed in the meantime), and became dependent on the Irish Parliamentary Party. Something similar will happen in the next Parliament.

Keir Starmer will almost certainly get a landslide majority but he will find, as the Liberals did after 1906, that his support is wide but shallow and driven more by disgust with the Tories than any real commitment. The concerns over issues such as immigration, national sovereignty in a world of globalised rules, and the various imbalances in the UK economy, which led to the realignment among voters before 2019, will not go away. 

Because of that realignment and the refusal of most of our political class to accept it and address it (from either side), there is now a huge hole or gap in British politics. That is for a party that is nationalist and anti-globalist, traditionally patriotic, anti-immigration, culturally traditionalist, and Left-wing on economics. 

This is the kind of party that is on the rise all over Europe but here there is no party offering this, apart from the SDP (still a fringe party) and George Galloway’s Workers Party (in his case hampered by the radical anti-Western foreign policy positions). 

There is also space for a party offering a plausible version of the opposite position but that space is currently overcrowded. 

Currently about 35 per cent of voters are effectively unrepresented. Many of them will abstain on July 4. This situation will not last. 

After defeat the Conservative Party will either finally accept the new alignment, become firmly nationalist and move away from free markets, or it will either split or be replaced by a new political force on the populist Right. 

This could take time but the politics of the 1980s are now a dead end for the Right in Britain. Meanwhile, a Labour government with a big majority will soon become very unpopular as it disappoints its supporters (inevitable, given the difficulties it will face) and does not address the kinds of issue that drive the new alignment. 

Like the Liberals after 1906, they will find themselves under pressure from both sides, from a more coherent nationalist Right on one side and from radicals of various kinds plus more effective and consistent liberals on the other. 

The election in July and the Parliament after it are the last stand of the political era created by the combination of Thatcher and Blair. The alternatives will emerge in the next Parliament.

Edited May 24 by sancho panza

[AlfredTheLittle]

Labour 1/7 to get an overall majority. Removing the VAT exemption for education seems a strange policy to lead on, could they chuck it all away over the next 6 weeks and give us 5 more years of Sunak? 

If anyone can manage that, it's got to be Starmer, but then again if anyone can get Starmer elected, it's got to be Sunak.

[sancho panza]

3 hours ago, AlfredTheLittle said:

Labour 1/7 to get an overall majority. Removing the VAT exemption for education seems a strange policy to lead on, could they chuck it all away over the next 6 weeks and give us 5 more years of Sunak? 

If anyone can manage that, it's got to be Starmer, but then again if anyone can get Starmer elected, it's got to be Sunak.

I think there's every chance they drive turnout low enoguh to allow a good number of tory MPs to survive.

I've canvassed my circle(smaple bias I know),highest number of non voters ever.by some margin.

I think sunak and starmer are the best of allies as you say,a very interesting perpsective now you mention it.

If turnout goes sub 55% could get interesting and unpredicatble,especially if the nats hold up in scotland

[Van Lady]

33 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

I think there's every chance they drive turnout low enoguh to allow a good number of tory MPs to survive.

I've canvassed my circle(smaple bias I know),highest number of non voters ever.by some margin.

I think sunak and starmer are the best of allies as you say,a very interesting perpsective now you mention it.

If turnout goes sub 55% could get interesting and unpredicatble,especially if the nats hold up in scotland

Interesting analysis.

Regarding the snp voters in Scotland my anecdote is that many locals I know who have voted for them are very pissed off with them.

The question is who will they vote for? I’d say definitely not cons but they might be in a place where they will vote labour and forget/forgive the new labour “betrayal” of workers. Or maybe a lot won’t bother voting

I’m sure you’ll have a good idea about how Labour Party was decimated in Scotland.

 

[sancho panza]

2 hours ago, Van Lady said:

Interesting analysis.

Regarding the snp voters in Scotland my anecdote is that many locals I know who have voted for them are very pissed off with them.

The question is who will they vote for? I’d say definitely not cons but they might be in a place where they will vote labour and forget/forgive the new labour “betrayal” of workers. Or maybe a lot won’t bother voting

I’m sure you’ll have a good idea about how Labour Party was decimated in Scotland.

 

Im interested in trying to work out how the SnP vote will hold up.

for ny of the bets that appear good value eg lab minorty govt at 8/1 depend on the nats holding up.

problem with polling int he UK is that very little of it is constuenty based it alls national polling.thus 44% in polls doesn t lead to 44% of seats.

Ukip 2015 won 12% f the vote but 1 seat.

SNP won 4.7% and won 56 seats.

Id also be itnered to know how mnay seats are genuine 3 to 4 way splits

 

here's the current running order.youd need to see constituentny polling but LD's/Plaid/Greens could pick up some seats by default.

Edited May 24 by sancho panza

[sancho panza]

think there's some room here buying tory seats at the bottom.

Sunak and his crowd are incompentent but I think the key thing here is as @AlfredTheLittle says is to not udnersestimate how incompetnet zanu labour are

I thi k there's no way toeries go under 90 seats given labours problems and sh1t leader,that's near a 20% return overnight

[AlfredTheLittle]

It's difficult to see anything other than a huge Labour majority. I think they'd need a 20% swing to get the Tories close to 90 seats, a 12% swing for a majority. This link predicts Conservatives getting 92 seats (with a possible low of 32):  https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.html

I think a lot of former Conservative voters feel betrayed and the old argument of 'we may be bad, but they're worse' doesn't really work anymore after the last couple of years stealing Labour policies and record immigration. I guess their remaining demographic is old people who aren't particularly invested in politics but have always voted Tory and think Rishi seems nice enough.

Labour, on the other hand, have a lot of the young who hate the Conservatives and think everything was great under Blair (going by Reddit) plus the 'progressive' lefty type vote, and a lot of people who just want to get the current lot out. I think Starmer comes across as nice enough (more than Rishi does), and lots of people won't be bothered that he was part of Blair's government, super heavily pro-lockdowns and pro-jabs, and generally has a track record of getting everything wrong.

Boris would have still been PM if he hadn't gone for lockdowns and jabs (though he doesn't get it at all and still boasts about his amazing jab rollout), so it's interesting that people are going to vote in someone who was more pro-lockdown than Boris. I do think Reform might surprise, and possibly take a decent portion of Labour's votes as well as the Conservatives.

Any post I make on this thread should be caveated as I'm so bad at betting that I banned myself for life from Betfair (no bookie has ever banned me for winning, I have to ban myself for losing)

 

Edited May 27 by AlfredTheLittle

[sancho panza]

On 27/05/2024 at 22:14, AlfredTheLittle said:

It's difficult to see anything other than a huge Labour majority. I think they'd need a 20% swing to get the Tories close to 90 seats, a 12% swing for a majority. This link predicts Conservatives getting 92 seats (with a possible low of 32):  https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.html

I think a lot of former Conservative voters feel betrayed and the old argument of 'we may be bad, but they're worse' doesn't really work anymore after the last couple of years stealing Labour policies and record immigration. I guess their remaining demographic is old people who aren't particularly invested in politics but have always voted Tory and think Rishi seems nice enough.

Boris would have still been PM if he hadn't gone for lockdowns and jabs (though he doesn't get it at all and still boasts about his amazing jab rollout), so it's interesting that people are going to vote in someone who was more pro-lockdown than Boris. I do think Reform might surprise, and possibly take a decent portion of Labour's votes as well as the Conservatives.

Any post I make on this thread should be caveated as I'm so bad at betting that I banned myself for life from Betfair (no bookie has ever banned me for winning, I have to ban myself for losing)

 

I've been reasonably successfulpoltical betting over the last decade(Brexit/corbyns leadership/various referendums/elections using PR,Trump 1 etc.the only problem being that you have to use betfair to get the lqiudity in anything but the msot common markets eg uk GE,US pres etc.Ive been marked by betfair to pay 25% of my winnigns going forward so now I have these discussions more for fun and intrigue.

although having said that i called the rounds in the troy leadership quite well but no money went on.

in all honesty Ive never betted on UK GE,it's too unpredictable due to fptp,markets are thin where there is some interesting bets etc.so thats me declared as well.

on your points in bold

1) I think whislt the tories have a turnout problem they also have a natural bottom.old people vote.period.a lot fo thsoe will vote tory.I also think labour may have more of a turnout problem than they realsie.lot of urban white voters are starting to turn on them

and angela is not helping with her tax issues and then this video which is getting a lot of coverage

she only has a 4000 majority and I know from Leicester that the Muslim vote isnt necessarily the bloc vote it once was

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/video/angela-rayner/video-3198475/Video-Labours-Angela-Rayner-pleading-votes-Muslim-meeting.html

 

2) I think there's still an awful lot of quiet conservatives out there.I live in a rural area ten mintues from leicester.they wont be voting labour round here and theres' laods of constituencies like it

3) I think you're right.Bozza had a bad coof.but he was the only naturally popular leader the tories have had since thatcher.

4) with farage making inroads since yesterday this is obviously why hes not runing for a seat.looksmlike hes playing the wing man role and bringing the focus to immigraitnio