Political betting thread.......

[sancho panza]

At the moment my only instinct is to lay rishi. 

 

The rest of the runners and riders are to bunched to pick the value trade

[Boon]

I do think much of the money in the betting must be inside money, the Cons and their friends trading inside information.

Like Johnson said, once the herd runs, it runs, so I do wonder if there is some kind of story out there that would discredit Sunak so much that he gets bombed out early on and quickly.

If , I could easily see Sajid Javid being a natural replacement and he is 31/1 on Betfair.

Own hunch is that the media hatchet jobs won't affect the women.

[sancho panza]

On 11/07/2022 at 09:19, Boon said:

I do think much of the money in the betting must be inside money, the Cons and their friends trading inside information.

Like Johnson said, once the herd runs, it runs, so I do wonder if there is some kind of story out there that would discredit Sunak so much that he gets bombed out early on and quickly.

If , I could easily see Sajid Javid being a natural replacement and he is 31/1 on Betfair.

Own hunch is that the media hatchet jobs won't affect the women.

There's a whole raft of people who punt political outcomes who don't even vote beleive it or not.

Ref this current election,my intiail sell Rishi insticnt has panned out,debating wheter to sell Penny as well.Rishi is stil worth selling imho,no way he wins against anyone with the membership.

I'm not sure what effect becoming the front runner has had on Mordaunt.The DM had a scathing piece on her and being the fron trunner brings pressure of it's own.

Most of the moeny I've made in Tory leaderships has been selling the people who won't win eg the Hunt/Hancock types who even with the best will in the world,they make you feel nauseous when they do their pieces to camera about the NHS.Rishi'snot that bad imho but he won't win with the embership whoever he ends up agaisnt imho.

 

dyor natch

 

Edited July 16, 2022 by sancho panza

[sancho panza]

I think a balance of bets on TRuss and Badenoch could pay well here as I suspect their voters will go the other who stays in. and badenoch wasn't that far from thrird palce.

Barvermans listed supporters were the likes of Baker and the one who pushes vaccine damage as a reality.I'm not sure they'll transefer to Truss at all.More likely Badenoch.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

6 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

I think a balance of bets on TRuss and Badenoch could pay well here as I suspect their voters will go the other who stays in. and badenoch wasn't that far from thrird palce.

Barvermans listed supporters were the likes of Baker and the one who pushes vaccine damage as a reality.I'm not sure they'll transefer to Truss at all.More likely Badenoch.

If you make the assumption that Braverman's votes go to Truss or BadEnoch and their votes coalesce behind the remaining one at the final three stage then they make the members vote. 64+49+27 = 140. 120 is the minimum to make the final two.

I'm fairly sure that either would beat Rishi. Not sure about beating Mordaunt.  Depends on events. Although with a finalist in the bag you could pivot, if deemed necessary.

I won't be betting but your theory makes sense to me.

[Boon]

Betting betting (and laying out) on Badenoch and that has worked out OK so far, locked in a profit.

I can't imagine it'll be two women going down to the final two, I think Rishi is not going to do anything stupid as he is almost guarnateed.

It'll take quite something quite strong to get away from a Sunak/Mordaunt final two. One chance is that Truss is playing catch-up here after a poor debate and in a desperate effort to show some personality ends up making a boo-boo - if most votes (together with Tugendhat) went to Badenoch that might be enough. 

I still think that it might be a tough draw for the rank and file to vote a BAME woman in, but given the oppo may be a BAME man I certainly think the odds are worth a shot.

[Xtal]

All change!

[Boon]

Huge move.

I bet another thing might be that if Sunak has enough votes, there might be another tactical element - that some of his voters might deliberately switch to either Truss or Badenoch in order to get them through to the final ahead of Mordaunt. Which improves his chances.

[sancho panza]

8 hours ago, Boon said:

I still think that it might be a tough draw for the rank and file to vote a BAME woman in, but given the oppo may be a BAME man I certainly think the odds are worth a shot.

I think the tory membership is a lot less racist than is supposed.most of the ones I know would love having an ethnic minority leader who'll snash mmigration and trans debates

9 hours ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

If you make the assumption that Braverman's votes go to Truss or BadEnoch and their votes coalesce behind the remaining one at the final three stage then they make the members vote. 64+49+27 = 140. 120 is the minimum to make the final two.

I'm fairly sure that either would beat Rishi. Not sure about beating Mordaunt.  Depends on events. Although with a finalist in the bag you could pivot, if deemed necessary.

I won't be betting but your theory makes sense to me.

Rishi makes the final two I can't see he won't. If I could bet on him making the final two I would. When it comes to trading I don't let my emotions get in the way

My money says he loses to whoever gets in the final two with him.period.the membership loathe the guy more generally even before the daily mail runs pieces in him

4 hours ago, Xtal said:

All change!

What caused that move? Do you know?

[sancho panza]

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/penny-drops-kemi-soars-in-tory-activist-poll

 

debate, this is a race that will be decided by Tory members – and they seem to have a new winner (for now at least). A new ConservativeHome poll has seen Penny Mordaunt knocked off the top spot by Kemi Badenoch – who now has a double-digit lead. In a rapidly-moving contest, it’s quite significant.

'Mordaunt’s ship is becalmed,' says Paul Goodman in the ConHome analysis. She led Badenoch by 46 per cent to 40 per cent in an either/or poll last Tuesday. But in this different poll (with all five candidates) she’s on just 18 per cent, with Liz Truss second at 21 per cent and Badenoch quite clearly ahead on 31 per cent.

The bookmakers are still betting that Tory MPs will not let Badenoch get to the final two (below) and you can certainly see why. At the MPs' voting stage, much is decided on backroom deals and horse-trading – neither of which are Badenoch’s speciality. Her pitch for No. 10 is certainly audacious, given that – unlike Sunak, Truss and Mordaunt – she has never held a Cabinet job. But her directness and brand of conviction politics does appeal to activists looking for a leader who could convey the idea that, after 12 years, the Conservatives are still capable of change.

Sunak has the lead with MPs and took 101 votes last time. Mordaunt had 83, Truss 64, Badenoch 49 and Tugendhat 32. Those numbers are in flux, as are loyalties. Truss was seen to have bombed on the Channel 4 debate last night, and there are rumours that even members of her campaign think that she’s over – or will be, if she doesn’t manage to recover her Miss Dynamite effervescence in tomorrow night’s debate. If you’re an 'Anyone But Mordaunt' MP (and I’ve met quite a few of those in recent days) and have given up on Truss, then the question is whether Sunak or Kemi would be more likely to sink her.

The Tory leadership race is perhaps the hardest in politics to predict: the polls (and bookies odds) have been all over the place. They're pointing right now to a Sunak vs Mordaunt final, but anything can still happen.

 

 

[sancho panza]

Badenoch getting some traction. Her direction of travel implies her odds coming down some more and it looks like the MPs are starting to look like they'll get some heat if she's seen too be unfairly squeezed out of the last two.

 

Here tho I think the safe money is laying rishi.not gonna win unless they coronets before the final two run off which just doesn't look likely. 35% return on rishi....

[Xtal]

2 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Badenoch getting some traction. Her direction of travel implies her odds coming down some more and it looks like the MPs are starting to look like they'll get some heat if she's seen too be unfairly squeezed out of the last two.

 

Here tho I think the safe money is laying rishi.not gonna win unless they coronets before the final two run off which just doesn't look likely. 35% return on rishi....

Agree, He's 1/10 to make the runoff at the moment, implying a 6/4 shot to win it at current prices. Should be around 2/1 imo making him 7/4 to win the runoff - more in line with the polling so far.

I can't see them getting away with not putting it to the members.

[Xtal]

Although this poll came out this afternoon

 

Changes things somewhat

[Boon]

Seems remarkable how Mordaunt has gone from heavily odds-on to now 3.2.

I can't get what the members are being so fickle about, is it the comments about gender?

I do sense that it isn't over yet and there may be another swing in the betting.

 

[sancho panza]

3 hours ago, Xtal said:

Although this poll came out this afternoon

 

Changes things somewhat

Agreed. These things never run perfectly but I think its highly likely badenoch or truss makes the final two with rishi.

Mordaunt is getting a hard time from the daily mail ref her trans comments and also the stuff in the andrew pierce hit piece.

I think she's risen because of a lack of scrutiny which is now coming to bear. I read somewhere that she's not even a trained reservist which is something -military links- that she runs on the back of. 

My current strategy is backing badenoch n truss, laying mordaunt n rishi.

[sancho panza]

2 hours ago, Boon said:

Seems remarkable how Mordaunt has gone from heavily odds-on to now 3.2.

I can't get what the members are being so fickle about, is it the comments about gender?

I do sense that it isn't over yet and there may be another swing in the betting.

 

Hit piece by pierce

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11015459/amp/MPs-read-ANDREW-PIERCEs-dossier-putting-cross-Penny-Mordaunt-again.html&ved=2ahUKEwiAlOTE4YD5AhUaaMAKHVuoCpoQ0PADKAB6BAgEEAE&usg=AOvVaw3BYhX_XvZrqFpnxnnWo3Ww

 

 

 

Questions about mordaunt navy claims. She looks toasted

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11015669/amp/Senior-officers-questioned-Penny-Mordaunts-Navy-claims.html&ved=2ahUKEwiAlOTE4YD5AhUaaMAKHVuoCpoQ0PADKAB6BAgHEAE&usg=AOvVaw1mUgiRqrgUqNRpDvuhoLXb

[sancho panza]

Mordaunt looks doomed.Truss moves into second place,again I'm for laying rishi here at these odds,there's a chance badenoch nudges out truss for the final two.small,but it's there.truss isn't that far ahead and tugendhats votes will likely not got ot rishi.

I also suspect the news ref mordaunt and here navy career may cost here some votes.

Badenoch at 20+ looks good value here,

Edited July 18, 2022 by sancho panza

[Boon]

I too agree on Kemi although the drfit has been pretty savage, I think implying inside info that votes that were coming her way yesterday will not be forthcoming now.

Time is against her as it goes down to 2 in a couple of days and Truss/Sunak have pulled out of a debate, the equivalent of a winning team holding the ball in the corner in injury time.

I do think that it may be inevitable in future we will have a UK version of AOC, but probably from Labour.

I kinda sense that the media might want Truss to win, doesn't appear to be any smears on her. Maybe they are biding their time but I can't imagine a one-on-one debate with her and Sunak will be that pretty.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

21 hours ago, Boon said:

I can't get what the members are being so fickle about, is it the comments about gender?

Mordaunt completely unexposed prior to the last week. People, even Tory members, knew little about her. A big advantage at the beginning. Politicians tend to be disliked for things they've done and she wasn't known for doing anything. As her views have been exposed they have buried her. I really do not like or trust anyone who has written a globalist book with a foreword by Bill Gates. You do not have to be a conspiracy theorist to be turned off by close links to a foreign billionaire. Something that also afflicts Rishi. Her views on trans will not have helped.

I suspect the members would be livid if presented with a choice between her and Rishi. Hobson's choice. 

People say there is no way the Conservative Party members would accept the choice being made before they got their say. If it is done that way it is done. A fair accompli. Get down to a final two and then release very compromising stories to the media on one candidate such that they're unviable or stand down. What can the members do then? Nothing but whinge.

[sancho panza]

7 hours ago, Boon said:

I too agree on Kemi although the drfit has been pretty savage, I think implying inside info that votes that were coming her way yesterday will not be forthcoming now.

Time is against her as it goes down to 2 in a couple of days and Truss/Sunak have pulled out of a debate, the equivalent of a winning team holding the ball in the corner in injury time.

I do think that it may be inevitable in future we will have a UK version of AOC, but probably from Labour.

I kinda sense that the media might want Truss to win, doesn't appear to be any smears on her. Maybe they are biding their time but I can't imagine a one-on-one debate with her and Sunak will be that pretty.

I think you're riht on truss,there's jsut less on her full stop.Shes also had some high profile jobs so any dirt would already be out there.She's a classic tory 1%er from what I can see,but this is about making money not what she is.

I think it's good politics on both truss and sunaks part,they are in the lead and have little to gain from sky debate and everything to lose.

Exemplifies why thw tories are in structural decline reallly,badenoch has enthused huge chunks of members non members and the Westminster bubble excludes her from the last two,which I suspect she'd win to be fair,but then life isn't.

 

Key thing with this round is that you have to be increasing your vote and all are excpet mordaunt who went down one.COnfirms she's safe to lay heavily now imho-dyor natch

https://news.sky.com/story/tom-tugendhat-knocked-out-of-tory-leadership-race-as-field-narrows-to-final-four-12654470

[sancho panza]

5 hours ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Mordaunt completely unexposed prior to the last week. People, even Tory members, knew little about her. A big advantage at the beginning. Politicians tend to be disliked for things they've done and she wasn't known for doing anything. As her views have been exposed they have buried her. I really do not like or trust anyone who has written a globalist book with a foreword by Bill Gates. You do not have to be a conspiracy theorist to be turned off by close links to a foreign billionaire. Something that also afflicts Rishi. Her views on trans will not have helped.

I suspect the members would be livid if presented with a choice between her and Rishi. Hobson's choice. 

People say there is no way the Conservative Party members would accept the choice being made before they got their say. If it is done that way it is done. A fair accompli. Get down to a final two and then release very compromising stories to the media on one candidate such that they're unviable or stand down. What can the members do then? Nothing but whinge.

Always the risk with these things but Truss has her past out there,as does Rishi 'Green card' Sunak.

I think thats the only way rishi wins is if there is no membership vote.entriely possible given leadsom ducked out versus May

[Boon]

Another big move in the betting, Sunak out from under evens. 
Probably due to this:

 

Suggests to me that Badenoch could be great value, but she needs to get to the final 2 first. 

[sancho panza]

59 minutes ago, Boon said:

 

Suggests to me that Badenoch could be great value, but she needs to get to the final 2 first. 

Agreed,her issue will be making the final two and it likely won't be a Badenoch/Turss run off,I'd put good moeny on that but the odds would be poor.

My strategy from day one has been laying Rishi and I think we wont get a coronation as the membership won't stand for it unless truss/badenoch back out which on both their parts seems unlikely.

Tory MP's aren't daft either and if Rishi looks doomed we may get some switchers leaving him and backing on of the winners.Noone likes being associated with a losing ticket especially when the losing ticket is as unpopular with their membership figures as Sunak is.

JAw dropping polling for him tbh but nothing we haven't predicted on here from our unbiased pedestal.On the one to one stuff,he's awful.

Interesting to see Badenoch beats Truss in the final two.MP's will ignore these polls at their peril.Defo a good idea to nudge more on Badenoch at these levels.Effectively free bet if you'd laid Sunak as those bets look good to go.

Edited July 19, 2022 by sancho panza

[belfastchild]

I put money on Leadsome.
I put money on Rory Stewart.

anyone want me to pick a winner for them this time?

[sancho panza]

This is what I mean about rishi.

Ina all honesty,I think he'd sink faster than Theresa may in the red wall seats.Starmer must be praying he wins.

WOuld make the next election easier to make moeny on.

hattip @DoINeedOne main thread

 

Edited July 19, 2022 by sancho panza