Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Green Devil]

19 minutes ago, Knickerless Turgid said:

Why can't BTC, or all cryptos, be rendered illegal at the stroke of a legislator's pen?

Edit: I have only listened to the first half of this podcast so far.

Quote from video 'BTC has reached escape velocity'. It cant be stopped'. Its too secure. Its network and cyptohraphy cant be broken. Watch what they are doing with Monero. They are trying to kill that by delisting it from exchanges, and hacking the nodes, yet failing to affect it. If they cant do Monero, then they dont have a hope with Bitcoin.

[Boon]

1 hour ago, supernaut said:

Pre March I was dipping into the market but on a low level as the majority of my free cash flow was tied up in arbitrage. When march hit I had a lot more time all of a sudden and a decent bank roll. 

In January last year I had a great month as I piled in one particular bet at 12/1 and it came in full underlay on the exchanges just to get my stake back. That one bet netted me 6.5k so I did feel confident keep buying the oils and others on the lower lows . 

Unfortunately for me the 3 month lockdown meant when june came around that particularly arbitrage angle was gone for me and I cant see it coming back on that scale 

Is this sports? Where are you betting to get that kind of exposure? Been heavily limited by most of the bookies. 

[Don Coglione]

25 minutes ago, Green Devil said:

Quote from video 'BTC has reached escape velocity'. It cant be stopped'. Its too secure. Its network and cyptohraphy cant be broken. Watch what they are doing with Monero. They are trying to kill that by delisting it from exchanges, and hacking the nodes, yet failing to affect it. If they cant do Monero, then they dont have a hope with Bitcoin.

I don't pretend to understand cryptocurrencies, nor the underlying technology.

At a far more simple level, what would happen if, say, the US legislature mandated that anyone buying, selling or trading in cryptocurrency would be sentenced to 100 years in jail? Doubtless, some would continue their dealings deep underground, but most people want a quiet life, in the real world.

I don't subscribe to the view that users of cryptocurrencies are sticking it to the man; I do subscribe to the view that the vast run-up in the price of BTC is a mania, largely social media-fuelled (ditto Tesla). Someone on hpc is predicting Tesla at $25k per share - that's about $24tn market cap...

BTC. Tesla. Same shit, different bucket.

[Green Devil]

3 minutes ago, Knickerless Turgid said:

I don't pretend to understand cryptocurrencies, nor the underlying technology.

At a far more simple level, what would happen if, say, the US legislature mandated that anyone buying, selling or trading in cryptocurrency would be sentenced to 100 years in jail? Doubtless, some would continue their dealings deep underground, but most people want a quiet life, in the real world.

I don't subscribe to the view that users of cryptocurrencies are sticking it to the man; I do subscribe to the view that the vast run-up in the price of BTC is a mania, largely social media-fuelled (ditto Tesla). Someone on hpc is predicting Tesla at $25k per share - that's about $24tn market cap...

BTC. Tesla. Same shit, different bucket.

What happens if the US outlaw BTC and it becomes the world standard and is owned by all of it competitors. IE China, Iran etc. The US has none. Petrodollar is now traded in BTC.

The US is toast. They are too late already. The country is in almost civil war. They should be getting onboard, not covering their eyes. Thats why they wont regulate BTC, apart from forcing KYC to all its wallets perhaps.

[Don Coglione]

2 minutes ago, Green Devil said:

What happens if the US outlaw BTC and it becomes the world standard and is owned by all of it competitors. IE China, Iran etc. The US has none. Petrodollar is now traded in BTC.

The US is toast. They are too late already. The country is in almost civil war. They should be getting onboard, not covering their eyes. Thats why they wont regulate BTC, apart from forcing KYC to all its wallets perhaps.

If BTC is owned by one of, or a series of, national powers, as you suggest, surely it loses its raison d'etre?

Your suggested scenario would almost certainly result in WW3 too...

[nirvana]

4 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

Can you sing at all?

you should have seen my performance last night! There was me wearing socks and a beanie, a roaring fire, some shaking speakers and later some rather large youtube videos.....I really was on both a mental and physical high, epic!

I'm quite excited about later  

[supernaut]

1 hour ago, Boon said:

Is this sports? Where are you betting to get that kind of exposure? Been heavily limited by most of the bookies. 

Yes sports. Managed to stumble across an angle that I scarcely could believe myself having been in the game since 2006 as a low level bonus abuser, like I say has since been shut only in terms of bookie sharpened odds so not viable anymore. 

I will not be more specific just in case. 

[The Idiocrat]

4 hours ago, Green Devil said:

Max on top form, of spectacular interest is the graph he shows of bitcoin against m2 money supply.

Definatlely worth your 44mins coffee/lunch break watch.

 

Stunning chart in there. BTC front-running M2? I'm not sure if this is the original source. 

 

[JMD]

21 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

@Cattle Prod i see a big risk at Brent  $58 to $60 for a pull back based on my dollar liquidity work.Interesting to see if that happens or not.However after that its a long run up ahead.Id actually be really pleased if the supply falls see oil through $60 and onward.Oil at $80 could be on and it would likely provide us with a big choice to make.Take then huge profits off the table and wait for the BK,it wont be far behind,or hold through it.Im torn at the moment as my road map is clear on gas being the best performing asset after silver in the cycle ahead and im very concerned to try to trade around the rise and end up out of the stocks.

One things for certain,its a bloody nice place to be worrying and doing work on that.If we get gaps filled on the stocks people who arent invested should use that chance to top up.

 

That's interesting because I certainly want to at least 'take profits' before any BK and then buy back at cheaper prices. Depending on the strength of evidence/and respected opinion here, I will also need to decide on how much deeper I sell. As you say DB it's a nice problem to have. But for me I'd like to participate in the anticipated BK - because I didn't have the cash to spend last March because I didn't receive the funds from selling my defined benefit pension until later last year. 

[JMD]

15 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

@Yellow_Reduced_Sticker im really really pleased your portfolio has done so well,i know you were down quite a bit for a while,but never let that bother you,or adding more positions.Glad you never listened to Credit Suisse when they said sell Royal Mail at £1.50 they were worth 90p  . 

I bought a few pairs of shorts on Ebay,i always buy shorts there on the coldest days of the year and my winter coats in summer on the warmest days,thats when they are cheapest.Got a pair of nice M&S blue shorts with tags on for £4.70 including postage and they had two 10 euro notes in the pocket ,now thats what i call frugal  ,shame it wasnt a couple of silver Brits but you cant have everything.

Youl appreciate this one,it was my local club in the 90s, 

 

Knew you were big into your economic 'leads and lags' DB, but didn't know you extended this to your clothes fashion buying!

[DurhamBorn]

29 minutes ago, JMD said:

Knew you were big into your economic 'leads and lags' DB, but didn't know you extended this to your clothes fashion buying!

Of course i do.I also go shopping for reductions when the weathers bad.I noticed if it rained all day there was around 3 x as many reductions usually.This morning with the snow being so bad i went to Aldi and Iceland for opening and got lots of half price items,they reduce for opening.

 

[JMD]

6 hours ago, Loki said:

Not really for this thread but the lack of rioting over mass removal of rights, criminalisation of normal activities, destroying of businesses and families over the casedemic tells me we are nowhere near rock bottom. People are too comfy mentally and physically. Doesn't sound rock bottom to me.

They might have a whinge but for the most part they all just do as they are told.

'casedemic', I see what you did there! Along with the stats and graphs courtesy of tweedle-dee and tweedle-dum (whitty/valance) its all quiet 'm/alice in wonder/covidland' stuffi isnt it - except all the more scary because it's really happening. I note the mad-hatters in government are now advising people to curtail their behaviour and act as though they actually have the virus! I expect after the virus is eventually 'wished away', those same advisers will be telling us all to go spend spend spend and make out like millionaires, else Boris will threaten to hold his breath until he explodes!!!

[Loki]

2 minutes ago, JMD said:

'casedemic', I see what you did there! Along with the stats and graphs courtesy of tweedle-dee and tweedle-dum (whitty/valance) its all quiet 'm/alice in wonder/covidland' stuffi isnt it - except all the more scary because it's really happening. I note the mad-hatters in government are now advising people to curtail their behaviour and act as though they actually have the virus! I expect after the virus is eventually 'wished away', those same advisers will be telling us all to go spend spend spend and make out like millionaires, else Boris will hold his breath until he explodes!!!

Part of the reason I don't watch telly...reality requires enough suspension of belief just to get by 

[Bobthebuilder]

Article from this month's gas safe mag. Offshore wind power to produce Hydrogen in Fife, companies involved etc.

[feed]

weirdly (or not) i'm starting to get stuff like this in my news feed.

Ørsted, Siemens Gamesa, ITM Power, and Element Energy have been awarded EUR 5 million in funding to demonstrate and investigate a combined wind turbine and electrolyser system designed for operation in marine environments.

https://www.offshorewind.biz/2021/01/08/orsted-siemens-gamesa-kickstart-offshore-wind-to-hydrogen-project/

[Loki]

I mean everyone likes a fag don't they

(This is not financial advice)

[leonardratso]

whats an energy park?

[Loki]

1 minute ago, leonardratso said:

whats an energy park?

Where solar panels go to play

(Either hydrogen production or production of technology - solar, turbine blades, hydrogen fuel cells - i assume)

[leonardratso]

1 minute ago, Loki said:

Where solar panels go to play

(Either hydrogen production or production of technology - solar, turbine blades, hydrogen fuel cells - i assume)

id say it was just an industrial estate with boats. hahaha, could be wrong.

[harp]

Is it me? But every time I see this graph over the last couple of months I just think that's a lovely cup and handle. When the handle was just about forming I was thinking how I could play this.

[Wheeler]

15 minutes ago, harp said:

Is it me? But every time I see this graph over the last couple of months I just think that's a lovely cup and handle. When the handle was just about forming I was thinking how I could play this.

The infection chart on the right is clearly a bubble. It’s bound to collapse.

[leonardratso]

20 minutes ago, Wheeler said:

The infection chart on the right is clearly a bubble. It’s bound to collapse.

might be a coronacoin chart, in which case its about to go exponential.

[DurhamBorn]

@Vendetta on tobacco i think they have a place in peoples portfolios at these levels.I had relations who worked for Rothmans who became part of BAT and one still goes around the world putting in machines for them as a contractor.He told me BAT make 1cent a stick in most countries.They can increase profits hugely with small price increases.They are also very well placed for new sorts of smoking,including cannabis.Both BAT and Imperial have too much debt,but they are slowly paying it down and they should clear most of it in 10 years.If you look at the structure of BATs debt they can pretty much pay each chunk off as it comes due with no re-financing if they wanted.

I dont expect them to do much share price wise,maybe 20% up over time,but if they increase the divis by inflation from here only id be very very happy.Holding them both gets me 8 big divis a year .BAT has 250 million customers,most who buy their products every day with hardly any chance of new competition,thats a hell of a business.

 

[Majorpain]

1 hour ago, harp said:

Is it me? But every time I see this graph over the last couple of months I just think that's a lovely cup and handle. When the handle was just about forming I was thinking how I could play this.

You could have done everyone a favour and cropped the lizard on the left out!

[Wheeler]

30 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

You could have done everyone a favour and cropped the lizard on the left out!

Ditto!