Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Noallegiance]

Why UK house prices are rising – and why the Government can’t afford to let them crash (msn.com)

"In April, Neal Hudson (an independent analyst) warned the housing market was already defying predictions and inflated house prices could be the new normal."

"In 1929, economist Irving Fisher said: Stocks have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau."

 

 

Fingers crossed.

[DurhamBorn]

Liquidity and free money.Noticed today Costa giving a 5% increase in pay.They said to thank staff for working so hard.More like because they cant get staff.Its now a case of push for inflation busting increases or be washed way by inflation.

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-employers-face-worst-shortage-job-candidates-record-rec-2021-09-09/

The pace of recruitment for permanent posts hit the highest in the survey's nearly 24-year history last month. Temporary hiring and open vacancies were not far off July's record levels.

[sancho panza]

1 hour ago, Noallegiance said:

Why UK house prices are rising – and why the Government can’t afford to let them crash (msn.com)

"In April, Neal Hudson (an independent analyst) warned the housing market was already defying predictions and inflated house prices could be the new normal."

"In 1929, economist Irving Fisher said: Stocks have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau."

 

 

Fingers crossed.

This is LE2 sales data for May 21.

I'm sure there are some delays due to covid with registrations but still we're probably looking at 50 for May in total once the late registrations come in.In this months update you can see the issues when we're taking pricing points in an illiquid market a discussion I had with @Harley a month or two back.

The average HPI indices are also likely very poorly sales mix adjusted as well.

Having said that,there's a truth in raw data that you can't get when statisticians start playing with it.Average price in Liecester has gone from £299k to £222k mainly on the back of low vol in detached.

[Hancock]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Liquidity and free money.Noticed today Costa giving a 5% increase in pay.They said to thank staff for working so hard.More like because they cant get staff.Its now a case of push for inflation busting increases or be washed way by inflation.

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-employers-face-worst-shortage-job-candidates-record-rec-2021-09-09/

The pace of recruitment for permanent posts hit the highest in the survey's nearly 24-year history last month. Temporary hiring and open vacancies were not far off July's record levels.

Wait until next month when furlough ends.... if it ends.

[DurhamBorn]

18 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Wait until next month when furlough ends.... if it ends.

Wont make any difference,massive demand for workers,way higher than furlough.People have taken the money,but pulled their retirement forward etc and many many others younger have tasted free money from Universal Credit and will do as little as they can.Again today iv had three job offers.In a day.Its nuts.I was chatting to the girl today who rang and she said they were losing people every day.They wanted top money if they had to even travel 45 minutes from home.They almost beg you.

Massive cycle turn underway.Huge liquidity is smashing headlong into structural changes.Every single extended chain that helped prices see deflation is now forcing inflation.The race is on for companies ,the ones who can shorten supply chains and pull more and more production close to base will survive it.Those who dont understand whats happening and are slow will be slaughtered.Road map told me to stick to de-complex assets,but now it really is with bells on.Government has created a monster and is lost,grabbing for tax that will just make things worse.

People wont work unless they get much more than welfare now,and welfare is higher than most jobs for anyone with kids.25% wage increases at the bottom end ,nothing will change that.

[HousePriceMania]

WHAT THE FUCK 

 

 

 

 

 

As the man says....you really cant make this shit up.

 

[HousePriceMania]

 

DYOR but this baby is going down.

[sancho panza]

2 hours ago, dnb24 said:

Gregory Copley warns that the CCP is deliberately tanking the Chinese economy to manage deflation.

https://outline.com/3UAS3M

https://m.theepochtimes.com/a-window-opens-to-irrational-behavior_3978372.html

I think this is something really worth being aware of- the CCP is central to China- even if millions die- the CCP doesn’t care- they don’t care that they’ve wiped Trillions off the Beijing and Shanghai markets ($1 trillion  alone in August)- it’s a different mindset- bloody minded. It’ll be interesting if they step away from the flexible exchange rate as they continue  “managing the deflation”- that would set the cat among the pigeons.

Interesting that he sees that central to Modi's plan is to go to war with Pakistan to isolate China.WOuld obviosuly bring the West in on India's side non?

[nirvana]

1 hour ago, HousePriceMania said:

As the man says....you really cant make this shit up

you mean to say the FED guys and the Bogdanoff bros were in the same team as along?

Well roger someone with a baguette and a French tickling stick 

[HousePriceMania]

What is it we keep saying....Watch what they do....

Kaplan and Rosengren are either the most ethical bankers in history or a pair of ****s who are selling out at the top of a bubble they know is about to have the rug pulled from it.

Which could it be ?

So Kaplan

 

 

[Barnsey]

Oh dear...

Great time to raise taxes though eh?

[Majorpain]

11 hours ago, dnb24 said:

Gregory Copley warns that the CCP is deliberately tanking the Chinese economy to manage deflation.

https://outline.com/3UAS3M

https://m.theepochtimes.com/a-window-opens-to-irrational-behavior_3978372.html

I think this is something really worth being aware of- the CCP is central to China- even if millions die- the CCP doesn’t care- they don’t care that they’ve wiped Trillions off the Beijing and Shanghai markets ($1 trillion  alone in August)- it’s a different mindset- bloody minded. It’ll be interesting if they step away from the flexible exchange rate as they continue  “managing the deflation”- that would set the cat among the pigeons.

Very interesting thanks, especially the likes of India which is something ill keep an eye on.  I especially like the following, it was always going to be struggle between free market led mercantilist export China and CCP lead communist China, and one of those has the guns and social credit score system.

Quote

Watch, then, for a massive and deliberate tanking of the Chinese economy as part of Xi’s attempts to re-define the country on Maoist lines. He argues that returning to an “internal circulation” economy is the only way to save the CCP in the wake of rising economic, demographic, and food challenges.

 

[HousePriceMania]

11 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

Oh dear...

Great time to raise taxes though eh?

Thank god prices are shooting up and no one can afford a house.

[dnb24]

13 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

Very interesting thanks, especially the likes of India which is something ill keep an eye on.  I especially like the following, it was always going to be struggle between free market led mercantilist export China and CCP lead communist China, and one of those has the guns and social credit score system.

 

It’s very interesting as Xi is starting to dress like Mao- everything in China seems  to be moving back to the old Maoist approach. Even the Congress and committee meetings are taking on an air of Maoism- very sombre etc- command economy returns?

[belfastchild]

Being a lefty(ish) I listen to economist David McWilliams podcasts. Met him at a conference in Dublin many many years ago just before the big crash.

His latest podcast is about China and the closedown. Now its from a taiwanese perspective so all the caveats that entails but thought it was interesting as it follows some of the other chinese content recently.

David is very well connected so a lot of his stuff does resonate in a lot of places.

https://play.acast.com/s/the-david-mcwilliams-podcast/169-thegreatchineseclosedown

[dnb24]

9 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Interesting that he sees that central to Modi's plan is to go to war with Pakistan to isolate China.WOuld obviosuly bring the West in on India's side non?

I think so, the key part to this is Azad Kashmir- if India can build out from Kashmir and connect into Afghanistan it will link its maritime ports into Central Asia especially Uzbekistan.

With the USA now out of Afghanistan- India will do this independently to what the US says or asks. 

[Democorruptcy]

On 07/09/2021 at 14:00, DurhamBorn said:

BT will be in play i expect,but i really hope it doesnt get taken private.There are cycle long profits to come in the sector and i dont want it giving up to others.  @Harley warned us about everything that creates real profit being taken private so ordinary people cant own assets and it was something i didnt consider.My roadmap is proving superb,but if we get profit and return engines taken off us only 20% along the road its not good at all.We could get it all right yet still lose the lot to inflation by cycle end if we lose the assets so early in the cycle.

Goes without saying of course keep buying the sector.

After all that hoo-ha about Huawei kit causing us a 5G security problem, couldn't BT be nationalised to stop it falling into the wrong hands?

[jamtomorrow]

31 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

Oh dear...

Great time to raise taxes though eh?

And therein lies the biggest question of all for where we find ourselves ... what will economic activity do during this re-/inflation? It's why I keep banging on about velocity - you have to allow for changes in money supply to get a metric that is somewhat independent of Central Bank shenanigans.

And 0.1% is *nowhere near* keeping up with money supply.

If it walks like a stagflation, talks like a stagflation ...

[wherebee]

17 hours ago, nirvana said:

thin willow branches are ace for that too! ie ones you can snap easily without doing your knees in.....

helpful hint: use your toilet roll tubes you all horde (I know as good DOSBODDERS you throw nothing away), fill them with the lint you get out of the clothes washer filters, and hey presto, an instant firelighter.  You can store them easily in an empty cereal packet and you have a whole winters worth of firelighters for free!

[DurhamBorn]

25 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

After all that hoo-ha about Huawei kit causing us a 5G security problem, couldn't BT be nationalised to stop it falling into the wrong hands?

It could,but wont be.Im not sure how it would play out,the best fit would be Telefonica,but cant because of o2.Vod isnt out of the question.What the telcos are really doing though and need to is share more of their kit,and use co kit.That way they can stop competing as much.Use say the tower company to charge them all the same high amount,they then all have to pass the costs on,but all get the profit.

Whatever telcos are entering a much nicer cycle for them.It could take a while for value to surface,but it will in time.Inflation used to hit them as people used their landlines less to save money,but now inflation is a real tailwind.If they can pass on 4% inflation pa it should see free cash increase 12%+ ,one of the few areas that can leverage the increases,assuming regulators keep off the case and their debt books are well structured.

[Bricormortis]

[HousePriceMania]

17 minutes ago, Bricormortis said:

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/an-inconsistent-crash-indicator-triggered-giving-fuel-to-bears-194627661.html

 

Worth a read on the hidenburg omen...not an indicator of a crash but it always happens just before a crash.  Happened twice recently

Is anyone selling up ?

[Hancock]

17 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Is anyone selling up ?

No, but ive plenty of cash thats being inflated away in relation to the stock market at present.

Thing with these endless graphs and charts, is they're constantly predicting an impending doom.

[HousePriceMania]

2 minutes ago, Hancock said:

No, but ive plenty of cash thats being inflated away in relation to the stock market at present.

Thing with these endless graphs and charts, is they're constantly predicting an impending doom.

It's more the 2 FED blocks selling up that would make me think 

Of course, they wouldn't be that blatant/corrupt/obvious.

Next Fed meeting Sept 21/22

Lets see what happens.

[DurhamBorn]

1 minute ago, HousePriceMania said:

It's more the 2 FED blocks selling up that would make me think 

Of course, they wouldn't be that blatant/corrupt/obvious.

Next Fed meeting Sept 21/22

Lets see what happens.

It would be interesting to see what they own and are selling etc,and what their trusts and wives are buying.The liquidity is already out there,so its a matter of where it goes now.