Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[nirvana]

15 minutes ago, Loki said:

Hunter's bust?  

remind me, what's the main premise of his bust? Bonds going tits up or.....?

if it's rising IRs that's bollocks, they can just keep lying about it all

[Loki]

2 minutes ago, nirvana said:

remind me, what's the main premise of his bust? Bonds going tits up or.....?

if it's rising IRs that's bollocks, they can just keep lying about it all

10 year yield to ~2.5% and DXY to ~85.  Don't think he sees interest rates rising just yet.

[nirvana]

8 minutes ago, Loki said:

10 year yield to ~2.5% and DXY to ~85.

why's that gonna cause a bust?

we've had this DXY 85 discussion before....85 is real real 'no risk' for the markets methinks, we already have 'gamble on' and it's at 92! next sign of financial crisis and 'risk off' it's gonna go up again, not down, cos of a rush to dwollars, yeah?

I know the ECB is fukkin about a lot too BUT meh, my simple brain doesn't see it

NB I do find forex interesting cos I've gambled in that realm before lol Remember it's a two way thing, a currency doesn't necassarily go up because it's strong, it might just be that the other currency is turning into a pile of shite! But also remember with FIAT it's defo a 'race to the bottom' and I first heard that a long long time ago BUT it doesn't mean you should rush and buy Gold n Silver too cos they're manipulated shite too!

soz didn't wanna upset myself with Silver but trying to put more 'crap on the soggy cracker' lol

[nirvana]

the DXY was last at 85 in september 2014......so the Euro was strong and in harmony with the world then? lol

(go on someone post a chart of EURUSD, I'm on the wrong puter currently)

I thought most Brits thought the EU is doomed certainly it's in a bit of disarray lol

I can't see the Yuro strengthening that much and I'm a fan of Europe remember

I don't particularly wanna hold Yuros, I'd choose a load o shitcoins first probs

[janch]

Incoming black swan a la Lehman??

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/doomsday-evergrande-arrives-creditors-demand-immediate-payment-bonds-no-longer-eligible

the collapse of Evergrande is just a matter of time and the only questions are i) whether Beijing will step in, and ii) how bad the avalanche of adverse consequences will get.

[Harley]

A thread upstairs has shown us up!

6 hours ago, Long time lurking said:

This was a pet theory of mine last year that fell by the wayside ,but the article below is superbly written and researched ,although my theory had dropped of the radar i have always questioned the amount of money that has been printed in the name of Covid

18 months later and i still cant make my mind up regarding WTF`s going on ,all i know is it`s not about a virus 

http://thephilosophicalsalon.com/a-self-fulfilling-prophecy-systemic-collapse-and-pandemic-simulation/

 

 

[nirvana]

22 minutes ago, janch said:

Incoming black swan a la Lehman??

yeah I read that this morning, don't forget Tyler has been predicting TEOTWAWKI since circa 2007....

[nirvana]

19 minutes ago, Harley said:

A thread upstairs has shown us up!

 

eh the first line of that article is bollocks! ie ruling elites decided to freeze the global profit-making machine

they've never been richer and more powerful! 

to add I read a bit more, lol, yeah of course it's all about power and control and making their mates even richer.....I've been saying for the best part of 18 months it's all about the FED and you should all ignore most of the eCONomist cunts you keep placing on pedestals...

anyway, peace out, my brains on fire today lol

 

[Harley]

35 minutes ago, nirvana said:

eh the first line of that article is bollocks! ie ruling elites decided to freeze the global profit-making machine

they've never been richer and more powerful! 

to add I read a bit more, lol, yeah of course it's all about power and control and making their mates even richer.....I've been saying for the best part of 18 months it's all about the FED and you should all ignore most of the eCONomist cunts you keep placing on pedestals...

anyway, peace out, my brains on fire today lol

 

Maybe it's just "all about the "economy" stupid" as was once said.  I don't know if I agree with the detail but that's not so important as the general idea that this is about keeping the (sort of capitalist) system we have going, after some tweaks.  Quite a few commentators have suggested this driver.  Possible from a systems lifecycle/dynamic POV, especially in regard to a lack of "new meat" (the system essentially being exploitative).  Sclerotic?  The necessary growth stalled a long time ago with money printing pushing on a string.  A worthy hypothesis to watch. 

[nirvana]

3 minutes ago, Harley said:

Maybe it's just "all about the "economy" stupid" as was once said.  I don't know if I agree with the detail but that's not so important as the general idea that this is about keeping the (sort of capitalist) system we have going, after some tweaks.  Quite a few commentators have suggested this driver.  A worthy hypothesis to watch. 

the eCONomy is a farce, it has been since 2008.....it's not so much 'keeping the system going' as a total fuckin 'power n money grab' using convid as a cover for the ruse!!! the cunts will have all fled to their islands and walled mansions before it implodes, well a lot of the fukkers probably already have 

[Harley]

17 minutes ago, nirvana said:

the eCONomy is a farce, it has been since 2008.....it's not so much 'keeping the system going' as a total fuckin 'power n money grab' using convid as a cover for the ruse!!! the cunts will have all fled to their islands and walled mansions before it implodes, well a lot of the fukkers probably already have 

I updated my post towards that POV, although I'm not sure it's quite game over for all of them -  I think they are wanting to stay in play by reconfiguring the system with lockdowns, government money, etc.  Corporatist in that sense.  That was the interesting thread in the article and mentioned by others - the system cannot survive without the State, but this is about extending and codifying that relationship.  Codifying along the lines mentioned in the article - comsume small business, remove the middle class, the pharma backed "dollar" (RIP oil), lockdowns and other covert command economic measures, unlimited liquidity the market itself can no longer provide, etc.  Following the money has pretty much always been the best way to understand things!

[JMD]

4 hours ago, Harley said:

I see the new Sprott Uranium fund (formerly the Participation Corp) has also done well (up 23% last week).  It's been a volatile time at the start of the fund as is not untypical.  Gapped up last week so maybe a pullback due.  Also now at a premium and they said they would issue more shares when this happens (i.e. buy more uranium).  Another interesting long term chart.  Lyn Alden just wrote a piece for her admirers on the uranium space!

Where are you buying your 'Sprott Uranium fund' Harley? ...I cant find it in my HL/ii/Halifax accounts.

Hope we do get a pull back because I intended to buy some when the fund opened, but i had forgotten all about it until your post!! 

[Yadda yadda yadda]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

I updated my post towards that POV, although I'm not sure it's quite game over for all of them -  I think they are wanting to stay in play by reconfiguring the system with lockdowns, government money, etc.  Corporatist in that sense.  That was the interesting thread in the article and mentioned by others - the system cannot survive without the State, but this is about extending and codifying that relationship.  Codifying along the lines mentioned in the article - comsume small business, remove the middle class, the pharma backed "dollar" (RIP oil), lockdowns and other covert command economic measures, unlimited liquidity the market itself can no longer provide, etc.  Following the money has pretty much always been the best way to understand things!

Pharma-backed dollar is an interesting one. If you want your latest boosters you have to pay dollars for them. At first thought that is a short term "fix". You would have to control all the latest drugs and ensure they were paid for in dollars. I've heard that similar tech could be used for cancer drugs so there could be a pipeline. No reason for China or Russia to play that game. Simpler just to steal the tech. No doubt very easy for China with all the Chinese nationals they've put in western corporations.

[Harley]

1 hour ago, JMD said:

Where are you buying your 'Sprott Uranium fund' Harley? ...I cant find it in my HL/ii/Halifax accounts.

U.UN, on the TSX.

[HousePriceMania]

 

[Bobthebuilder]

18 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

 

The madness of crowds.

[nirvana]

31 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

The madness of crowds.

I've seen that before! I think it's really cool, 1 guy is having a fantastic time and other 'dope heads' join in, result! 

[Harley]

1 hour ago, HousePriceMania said:

 

Nailed.  It's on a steep slope!

[sancho panza]

On 03/09/2021 at 10:33, Cattle Prod said:

I finally got to see my old man after almost two years during the summer, he has a bit of land in a very remote spot. I've been discussing a plot of land with him to build a bolt hole, but as soon as you're into planning permission you're into the vortex of government, bureaucracy ... and tax. So I was thinking about a log cabin, let's see them find that. Then I thought there is always some do gooding busybody to shop you. So why not a caravan? That'd work. And then I thought...glamping tent! They're only about 1k and if 7m diameter about the size of a city apartment. Let's see the the bastards try and tax that!

Of course my old man would think I've become a hippie and growing weed, and would shoot me, so I'll have to wait a bit.

Have  you looked t container homes.Mrs P has some SA contacts who've used these.

https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-d&q=container+homes

or log cabin.

[sancho panza]

On 04/09/2021 at 09:56, DurhamBorn said:

There will be more unfilled jobs in the UK than ever before,the end of furlough will just be a blip.The CBs fear unemployment now more than anything and the fiscal pump has been aimed at that.The problem is the most skilled and experienced are retiring/semi retiring,and welfare is so generous for working people with children most dont want to increase hours,or work at all.

Of course this means more and more work for the state,and less for private industry.Wages have 25% to run up yet for the lowest paid.Its later as they struggle to pass on costs that unemployment will head higher.This cycle wont be about unemployment in the UK,or the west really in general.

This is something where this thread has really changed my view.I jsut read the hsoitory books and expect a repeat witha  few changes.True across the whoe world but the West has never been in this pace demogrhapically with so many old people and so few young ones.

Young people will at last be in a good space to get a living wage.

On 04/09/2021 at 14:11, Cattle Prod said:

Another time bomb lurking. I was looking into cost of student loans, thinking down the line if my lad wants to do that. Its RPI linked:

If half the people in this country have been encouraged to go to Uni, that is a huge % of workers who are going to be absolutely clobbered with interest over the coming decade. 13%+ interest on 100k?!

It will make people very angry I guess but I think the main consequence will be incentivising people to work less and stay under the threshold, if they can. Of course you can't buy a house or raise a family on those numbers in most parts of the country. So productivity down, tax take down, demographics down, anger and resentment up, benefit claimants massively.

I can easily see how the next cycle could be a violent, dystopic mess, absent a debt jubilee or currency change. Or maybe UBI.

I've bored with this stat before but if you leave £50,000 studetn debt for ten years it becomes £100,000 at 6%/7% thereafter the interest is £7000 per annum

So in theory you could then psend the next 25 years paying the interest at £7k per annum and never ever clear the lump sum despte having paid £175k in laon repayments

On 04/09/2021 at 14:22, Cattle Prod said:

And as @DurhamBornhas been reporting from the Northern front;

There's a care home crisis looming.Incredibly tough job,glad to see they'll earn more.

In a way it'll be interesting to see how the political class care for their elderly without the cheap labour.This probably wasn't in Sajid or Boris's playbook-you know,plebs fighting back-but how are they going to sqaure incrasing demand with decreasing supply?

 

[Hancock]

12 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

In a way it'll be interesting to see how the political class care for their elderly without the cheap labour.This probably wasn't in Sajid or Boris's playbook-you know,plebs fighting back-but how are they going to sqaure incrasing demand with decreasing supply?

This is the time when assisted suicide comes up for discussion. (and then implemented)

It's inevitable.

[sancho panza]

On 04/09/2021 at 16:23, DurhamBorn said:

The care sector is on the brink of collapse i think at the same time as we have thousands in every town on benefits.My partners service with the council has more bosses now than responders,they cant get any.My partners friend went on the sick last week,fed up of flogging on and all the crap.She will claim 6 months full pay then retire,she isnt going back,not that they know that yet and she isnt alone,they have 18% sick at the moment.They have just been offered 1.7% pay increase,less than inflation.This country has imported millions of scroungers to add to the 10million+ of its own and now its all coming back to bite.

Yes and yes.

Ambulance service is aslo strugglimg.I keep getting requests to do overtimebecuase genersally noone is volunteering for it-the youngsters are on on f### all for shifts full of cat 1 calls and stress,the older members of staff are paying 40%  tax.People really are reassessing what they do with their spare time.

On 04/09/2021 at 19:18, Talking Monkey said:

Elequently put Harley, all that waste when so much good could have been done. 

I've thought long and hard on why so many who could speak out are so compliant, all of them can't be compromised. 

We've had a problem getting working age clinciains to speak out about covid but that's changing with letters like this

https://www.covid19assembly.org/2021/08/the-government-has-based-the-handling-of-the-covid-pandemic-on-flawed-assumptions-say-133-doctors-nurses-paramedics-and-midwives/

Also worth noting high profile people like AMericas forntline doctors etc

On 04/09/2021 at 19:32, Bobthebuilder said:

I visited a rural area that I grew up in last weekend. It was lovely of course but, looking at the houses for sale I noticed reductions / unexpectably re available, auction, etc, on so many.

Feels like a top to me.

Very much feels like that to my spider senses.

On 04/09/2021 at 19:35, dnb24 said:

Are they going to come from the state then? If so where? The state’s huge as it is- I work in it and the waste is unreal- are they really going to increase in these areas. Or do you mean the state will shrink and private industry will pick up?
Then with the skilled retiring and the feckless sitting on welfare does that not lead to stagflation where nothing moves forward except the amount of money in the system?

To my simple mind does this not all just point to one huge crash and then pump to change things as above or stagflation where nothing changes as it’s all bollocksed just the money supply increases?

Sorry for the questions but this post confused me.

 

To add to DB's previous answer there are also a lot of people leaving the workforce.This isn't so much an unemployment problem looming as an employment one.More people living off state the actual wokers will get more

[JMD]

7 hours ago, Harley said:

A thread upstairs has shown us up!

 

8 hours ago, janch said:

 

(Oops, I've also linked to jauch post by accident, not sure how?)                                                                                              That is a very sobering report Harley. Lots to agree with I think. But has the author joined the dots or is there lots of confirmation bias going on?                                                                                                                              However I'm not convinced the control-freakery planning of our elites would be so publicly signposted at global summits or published in glossy reports for all to see. Plus the bat flu originated in China did it not, so it is strange that no link is drawn by the author between China and the Western markets, banks, etc. Or is it that China is operating hand in glove with the West because it to is up sh** creek?!                                                                     But I do believe the warnings of rabid corporatism are correct. Anyway the report mentions supply chains being captured, and I note that Gaslog shipping has been taken into private hands as part of - drumroll...!!!... - BlackRock global energy and infrastructure!! ...yep, unnerving trends going on here me thinks?!... But how do we decipher it in order for us to benefit from it? Does anyone know the stats for the type of companies/sectors taken private during say 2020/21? blockquote widget

[sancho panza]

On 05/09/2021 at 02:09, wherebee said:

Another media lie.  How many are leaving for an extra 50p and hour as against those leaving rather than take a vaccine still in trial stage.

I've made the concious decision to quit rather than take the 'clot shot' as soem Doctors' call it.

I have alternatives,msot don't.If peole like me don't tell them to f### off then who will.

I think it's both by the way.The 'clot shot' has jsut made a number carers realise how criminally underpaid they are using the pay to poo ratio.

 

[nirvana]

5 hours ago, JMD said:

Plus the bat flu originated in China did it not

the yanks created it originally, gave it to the Canadians, the chinkies nicked it off them, went to the Indian jungle near the Himalayans to see batty bat, the rest was on the news lol