Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Hancock]

9 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Much more scrutiny on it this time around. I don't think they'll get away with faking death certs again. Plus there are swaths of the world wide open this time which can't be ignored. 

It does look as if they're opening up the world, but winter is just around the corner and they can quite easily fudge some PCR numbers.

Boris is a Totalitarian and so are his cabinet, their natural instinct is to control us and lock us up.

It is going to be a long cold winter of discontent whatever happens.

 

 

[JMD]

8 hours ago, Harley said:

We may have to wait!  Bought ntt?  No idea.  Do ya think I'm a details guy or summing!  I just give em a good time, I don't wanna hear their life stories!    

Should have mentioned it's really only a narrative thing for me, i am expecting massive corporatism so selecting monopolies or companies buying their competitors is on my radar.

[DurhamBorn]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/09/07/ofcom-eyes-break-brussels-rules-boost-broadband-firms/

Iv been waiting for this to happen and it looks like at last it will.Big tech will have to pay more to telcos,or lose their speed.Europe has opposed this every time its been raised,but i expect them to change that as well in time.Its an easy way to get higher profits into telcos from big US tech firms and capital spending into their economies.

[nirvana]

5 hours ago, Phil said:

What does that mean.I realise  it’s a personal thing but wtf does it mean?

open your soul man!

 

[Harley]

Ni is just the thin end of the wedge.  Unpopular ones first, less unpopular/popular ones closer to the election, if we get one:

https://www.express.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/1487336/inheritance-tax-IHT-capital-gains-tax-CGT-National-Insurance-HM-Revenue-Customs-HMRC

It seems the NI increase is going to the NHS, not social care.  This government blatantly lies, a lot.

[belfastchild]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-58480550

Gas prices up 35% in parts of NI.

Inflation? What inflation?

[Harley]

Oh, er, btw, the job gets a seat on the MPC.

 

[Heart's Ease]

 

Little snippet about openreach for us BT shareholders.

Connection fee around £92 one off. Openreach expecting the savings to be passed on to customers. 

Timed to link up with tax increase announcements? Symbiotic relationship with Government, as discussed here when BT stopped paying dividends to focus on fibre roll out?

[nirvana]

boring factoid, markets normally dump in September

So why don't y'all go liquid and buy the dip on the dump? 

[nirvana]

32 minutes ago, Harley said:

Oh, er, btw, the job gets a seat on the MPC.

wot a fekkin surprise Goldman Sachs cunt gets a job with a CB......just a little bit of history repeating eh?

haven't had this one for a while, it ace too!!!

 

[HousePriceMania]

Interesting snippet posted to me on twitter

 

https://www.icis.com/chemicals-and-the-economy/2021/09/housing-markets-face-long-term-downturn-as-central-banks-abandon-stimulus/

 

Housing markets face long-term downturn as central banks abandon stimulus

This is from the US, more interested in the abandoning of the stimulus and the reasons for it in the article. 

Have a read.

[Straingone]

11 hours ago, Phil said:

What does that mean.I realise  it’s a personal thing but wtf does it mean?

[Verse 1]
"There must be some way out of here"
Said the joker to the thief
"There's too much confusion
I can't get no relief
Businessmen, they drink my wine
Plowmen dig my earth
None of them along the line
Know what any of it is worth"

[Verse 2]
"No reason to get excited"
The thief, he kindly spoke
"There are many here among us
Who feel that life is but a joke
But you and I, we've been through that
And this is not our fate
So let us not talk falsely now
The hour is getting late"

[Verse 3]
All along the watchtower
Princes kept the view
While all the women came and went
Barefoot servants too
Outside, in the distance
A wildcat did growl
Two riders were approaching
The wind began to howl

[nirvana]

43 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

This is from the US, more interested in the abandoning of the stimulus and the reasons for it in the article

sounds like hogwash to me, where's the evidence they're abandoning stimulus?

listen to the FED! everything else is bollocks 

[Loki]

2 minutes ago, nirvana said:

sounds like hogwash to me, where's the evidence they're abandoning stimulus?

listen to the FED! everything else is bollocks 

Don't even listen to them, watch what they do

[nirvana]

Just now, Loki said:

Don't even listen to them, watch what they do

this'll be whats rattled the markets overnight.....some of his mates have gone short for a few mill so he wants a temp dump in the markets......we should all be dumping on their fekkin heads 

 

[DurhamBorn]

1 minute ago, nirvana said:

sounds like hogwash to me, where's the evidence they're abandoning stimulus?

listen to the FED! everything else is bollocks 

Markets are down today because of tax increases not Covid.Of course most companies will put their prices up to cover it.Locking in theft and inflation everywhere.Supermarkets will be looking today at how many people they can get shot off etc.

[nirvana]

8 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Markets are down today because of tax increases not Covid

what tax increases? they're down cos of that FED CUNT! 

to add the FTSE should be renamed 'fking irrelevant' lol it follows the US, it's down cos of US futures nowt to do with tax....

you're the US puppy dog now you just don't fully realise it yet lol

[sancho panza]

Cross post from the Sceptics thread ref staffing issues in care homes.Interesting as well to see a stat similar to lorry drivers that over one third of care workers are 55+.Very much reinforces the point that @DurhamBorn has been making about young people opting out of jobs with bad hours/conditions.

Suspect the gubbermint will have to get their chequebook out to resolve this.

What a mess.Only our superiror political class would think that they could mandate jabs to the little people and the little people would take whatever crumbs they get offered.I'm beginning to really despise this current crop,incl Keir Takeaknee

 

 

For reference care staff have to be double jabbed from Sept 16th iirc

3 SEP 2021

https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/health/hundreds-home-care-services-refusing-21465037

Hundreds of home care services refusing care requests due to UK staff shortage

Home care providers are refusing to take on patients because they do not have enough staff

More than 200 managers have had to turn down requests for care in the last month because of insufficient staffing levels.

Reporting to The Institute of Health and Social Care Management (IHSCM) managers have also revealed that they are handing back existing care packages as they're struggling to recruit.

 

Apparently providers are not adding any more names to waiting lists until January 2022 at the earliest, calling the situation “heartbreaking”.

Home care agencies provide a range of care and support in people’s homes.

This can include for people who need temporary support after being discharged from hospital, people of an older age, and disabled people who need help to live independently.

Joanna Mitchell, director of Your Care, which provides mainly palliative care, said she had to turn down around 30 care packages one morning this week.

 

She takes referrals from NHS community nurses and hospitals to help people live their final days at home, and said she is aware of one person locally who has been waiting more than six weeks for support.

The 55-year-old said the Kent-based company has been understaffed for three months, calling the workload “phenomenal”, and she has spent £2,000 on recruitment this month alone but cannot get suitable candidates to interview.

 

 

6th Sept 2021

 

https://www.falkirkherald.co.uk/news/politics/council/falkirk-home-care-warning-of-service-cuts-because-of-chronic-staff-shortages-3373140

 

Falkirk home care: Warning of service cuts because of chronic staff shortages

 

In July, around 40 per cent of all posts in the home care service were “sitting empty” either because of sickness or unfilled vacancies, members of Falkirk’s Integrated Joint Board (IJB) were told.

Demand is now so acute that at the last count 171 people were waiting for a care package – and despite urgent efforts to recruit more staff, the figure is still rising.

The crisis is also affecting care homes; at the time the report was written, seven care homes were not open to admissions, but by the time it was presented, that figure had risen to 11.

Head of integration, Martin Thom told the board that demand for care rose by 40 per cent this year, almost overwhelming a service that was already under severe pressure from staff shortages.

The recruitment issues are not just affecting Falkirk Council’s social care – many privately run companies are also so short-staffed that they have had to hand contracts back.

The IJB, which oversees the work of health and social care services in Falkirk heard the situation was so critical that in July the decision was taken to review all existing care packages, in order to prioritise those in most urgent need.

 

 

Councillor Allyson Black said: “This is a real crisis situation and I don’t think the public know how serious it is.

“We have this 40 per cent increase in demand and so few staff and the staff that we have got are so tired and demoralised as you can see from reports.

“It’s a huge worry for us and also for unpaid carers sitting at home with a reduced service.”

A recently announced review pledged to make changes that would make the home care service more efficient and less expensive.

 

 

 

Ms Black questioned if this was the right time for a review, given the emergency facing them.

But Mr Thom said that with almost one-third of staff over 55 years old, “new blood” is urgently needed or they would only be able to deliver critical services in 10 years time.

In particular, he said, it was time to look at why so many people will apply to be healthcare assistants, working for the NHS, while hardly any apply for social care posts, working for Falkirk Council.

“I know that money is an issue and I don’t think either personal carers or healthcare assistants are paid enough for the job that they do but the council actually pays slightly more at the basic grade,” he said.

 

 

[jamanda]

Daughter at 42 has just landed an apprenticeship in social care.  The emails they sent went into her junk folder and she didn't check it.  They chased her 3 or 4 times until they got her.

Apparently the qualifications will enable her to work with battered women which is her aim.

[Harley]

28 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Very much reinforces the point that @DurhamBorn has been making about young people opting out of jobs with bad hours/conditions.

And opting out of jobs that don't require expensive degrees in favour of the ones that do like the MacD ones!

[Harley]

Great uranium podcast.....

https://palisadesradio.ca/justin-huhn-uranium-bull-market-is-breaking-out/

[Nomad]

So we have thousands of unfilled vacancies, companies desperate to employ people, but at the same time we have a massive benefits bill. The govt need to start ensuring the work shy go to work.

[Harley]

33 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Cross post from the Sceptics thread ref staffing issues in care homes.Interesting as well to see a stat similar to lorry drivers that over one third of care workers are 55+.Very much reinforces the point that @DurhamBorn has been making about young people opting out of jobs with bad hours/conditions.

Suspect the gubbermint will have to get their chequebook out to resolve this.

What a mess.Only our superiror political class would think that they could mandate jabs to the little people and the little people would take whatever crumbs they get offered.I'm beginning to really despise this current crop,incl Keir Takeaknee

 

 

For reference care staff have to be double jabbed from Sept 16th iirc

3 SEP 2021

https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/health/hundreds-home-care-services-refusing-21465037

Hundreds of home care services refusing care requests due to UK staff shortage

Home care providers are refusing to take on patients because they do not have enough staff

More than 200 managers have had to turn down requests for care in the last month because of insufficient staffing levels.

Reporting to The Institute of Health and Social Care Management (IHSCM) managers have also revealed that they are handing back existing care packages as they're struggling to recruit.

 

Apparently providers are not adding any more names to waiting lists until January 2022 at the earliest, calling the situation “heartbreaking”.

Home care agencies provide a range of care and support in people’s homes.

This can include for people who need temporary support after being discharged from hospital, people of an older age, and disabled people who need help to live independently.

Joanna Mitchell, director of Your Care, which provides mainly palliative care, said she had to turn down around 30 care packages one morning this week.

 

She takes referrals from NHS community nurses and hospitals to help people live their final days at home, and said she is aware of one person locally who has been waiting more than six weeks for support.

The 55-year-old said the Kent-based company has been understaffed for three months, calling the workload “phenomenal”, and she has spent £2,000 on recruitment this month alone but cannot get suitable candidates to interview.

 

 

6th Sept 2021

 

https://www.falkirkherald.co.uk/news/politics/council/falkirk-home-care-warning-of-service-cuts-because-of-chronic-staff-shortages-3373140

 

Falkirk home care: Warning of service cuts because of chronic staff shortages

 

In July, around 40 per cent of all posts in the home care service were “sitting empty” either because of sickness or unfilled vacancies, members of Falkirk’s Integrated Joint Board (IJB) were told.

Demand is now so acute that at the last count 171 people were waiting for a care package – and despite urgent efforts to recruit more staff, the figure is still rising.

The crisis is also affecting care homes; at the time the report was written, seven care homes were not open to admissions, but by the time it was presented, that figure had risen to 11.

Head of integration, Martin Thom told the board that demand for care rose by 40 per cent this year, almost overwhelming a service that was already under severe pressure from staff shortages.

The recruitment issues are not just affecting Falkirk Council’s social care – many privately run companies are also so short-staffed that they have had to hand contracts back.

The IJB, which oversees the work of health and social care services in Falkirk heard the situation was so critical that in July the decision was taken to review all existing care packages, in order to prioritise those in most urgent need.

 

 

Councillor Allyson Black said: “This is a real crisis situation and I don’t think the public know how serious it is.

“We have this 40 per cent increase in demand and so few staff and the staff that we have got are so tired and demoralised as you can see from reports.

“It’s a huge worry for us and also for unpaid carers sitting at home with a reduced service.”

A recently announced review pledged to make changes that would make the home care service more efficient and less expensive.

 

 

 

Ms Black questioned if this was the right time for a review, given the emergency facing them.

But Mr Thom said that with almost one-third of staff over 55 years old, “new blood” is urgently needed or they would only be able to deliver critical services in 10 years time.

In particular, he said, it was time to look at why so many people will apply to be healthcare assistants, working for the NHS, while hardly any apply for social care posts, working for Falkirk Council.

“I know that money is an issue and I don’t think either personal carers or healthcare assistants are paid enough for the job that they do but the council actually pays slightly more at the basic grade,” he said.

 

 

It's said the moral health of a society is measured by how well it treats its elderly.  This government is beyond morally bankrupt.

[HousePriceMania]

Everyone should read this, it summarises really well where we are, the FED/ECB/BoE are based on the princliple of Occam's razor

https://northmantrader.com/2021/07/29/game-over-5/

They wont taper because they cant.  They wont raise IRs because they can't.  They will not stop down the path they are going down.

The conclusion must be that their economic system is going to collapse with hyper inflation at some point in the future.

I'd say you'd be mad not to buy a house and get out of cash in the next 6-12 months.

Not sure the stock market will hold the answers long term though least with a house you might at least have shelter and some land to grow spuds

[sancho panza]

13 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Oooh I this one. A lot. Dave Hunter approves too 🙂. Credit to @TOzgokmen

Ok dollar. Off you go now...

That's a fantastic chart there CP.I'll have.One of those 'just wow' type charts.

Looks like we could be facing some dollar weakness ahread of a BK yet?Which would chime with historical precedent

12 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Much more scrutiny on it this time around. I don't think they'll get away with faking death certs again. Plus there are swaths of the world wide open this time which can't be ignored. 

I think you're right.I've spoken to a number of Drs over the last few months who are uite open about their scepticism now in a way they weren't last year.

It was hard for dr's to break ranks last year in wave 1 as they quite simply didn't know what was coming and in a way had to trust in their leadership(however poor it may have been).

That recent open letter from a number of Dr's to the gvot questioning lockdown shows that things have changed in this respect.

Especially as the immunisation of youngsters appears to have hardened some waiverers into asking for a cost/benefit of lockdown and vaccine mandates.

looming care homes debacle is going to be an epic display of incompetence and will likely swamp far more of the NSH than covid did if they can't free hospital beds up(which are already full)

11 hours ago, Hancock said:

It does look as if they're opening up the world, but winter is just around the corner and they can quite easily fudge some PCR numbers.

Boris is a Totalitarian and so are his cabinet, their natural instinct is to control us and lock us up.

It is going to be a long cold winter of discontent whatever happens.

 

 

At about 4 minutes Dr Sam Bailey starts explaining why PCR tests maybe aren't the ideal way to diagnose covid.The Kiwi Dr's appear more beligerent but that's perhaps because they have a former marxist in charge of their country and can see the writing on the wall.