Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Hancock]

15 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

A very high proportion of CEOs (and Chairmen, who are uually ex CEOs) are actually clincial psychopaths. I've know a few, and could well believe them capable of doing whatever @Hancock alluding to. It's worth remembering that when we are screening companies for investment. There needs to be a good board there to keep the psychos in check, that's pretty much what a board structure is for.

I'll enlighten you all in the future, its not me just being an angry cunt, what they've done is vile.

[Hancock]

18 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

I've just been knocked back from a nice little job GP home visits because I haven't had the 'clot shot'.Fair enough.Reason given that I won't be able to visit care homes from November.

Looking forward to seeing how the ambulance service deals with this.Looks like we could be losing some NHS frontline staff soon as I'd rather get sacked than take the vaccine 1) because I don't think they've been honest about it's long term safety 2) because the IFR for covid isn't too dissimailar to the IFR for flu 3) because we all reach a point in life where we have to make a stand and I'm dead against govts mandating medications to populations

The point I'm making is that if GP's go to a 3 day week,then I'm not sure where the spare supply will come from to cover the gaps.

The NHS is facing being overrun this winter due to the care home collapse which was/is totally avoidable.

Must say,I genuinely think this govt will go down in history as one of teh msot incompetent ever.

I had crippling pain in my abdomen recently and called 111, they told me to call an ambulance and go to A&E.

I got a lift down instead, and the woman at reception said there is a queue of 10 or so ambulances, and 120 people waiting. This was on a weekday night at 10pm, I've never seen A&E so busy.

111 has to be at fault for sending so many people needlessly to the hospital, to cover themselves.

But no out of hours doctor doesn't help.

[sancho panza]

7 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Globally, oil inventories drew down at 3mbpd last week. That is very fast, historically. What's going to happen if we start burning oil this winter to supplement gas, or start running diesel gennies?

I got the following chart of Ycharts.It doesn't correlate with the EIA data but shows the same trend.Do you know which figures from the EIA report it's measuring?

Can I ask why you think this run down is fast historically?

Things certainly looking bullish out there for oil which is an absoilute disaster for the average working person in this country if it's rising for reasons such as you outline.

7 hours ago, Castlevania said:

My cousin is a GP and he thinks that initial appointments via video call as a sort of triage is fantastic. You weed out the serial hypochondriacs who are constantly wasting your time. So there is a way to make GP’s more efficient, however knowing the government they’ll bin it and go back to the old system.

The problems in the health service at the minute really stem from the 12 months from Mar 20 when people started avoiding hospitals so they didn't covid infection.Many of these people stayed home and got worse,only to re emerge needing more resources than when they went into isolation.

GP's triaging by phone will help,but the reality is that the patients who need the most resources will end up in hospitals and that's something we can't do much about.It's not just physical space but also staffing.If they choose to sack people like me or move me from frontline,then a bad situation will become worse.They might be able to recurit from abroad but I'm not sure the NSH is as attractive to work for as it once was,especially as a lot of ethnic minorities don't want the jab.

This winter will be horrendous from a capacity point of view.

[sancho panza]

5 hours ago, planit said:

 

US imports were 700kbpd higher last week than the week before. This kept the headline figure up a bit

(would have been 0.7x7=4.9mmbpd lower) and the market suppressed in my opinion (oil still lower than a week ago).

Be interesting to see if the imports keep moving higher, this will take supply off elsewhere but might result in the US stockpiles increasing again.

Attention must  move from gas to oil soon. As was said earlier, there will be diesel generators burning this winter since gas prices are so high.

 

That's an interesting point.EIA data only goes to June on the monthlies but the 22/9/21 report cites current net oil imports at 1049 kbpd rising from 848 kbpd the week before.

I know @Cattle Prod has warned about reading too much into the weeklies,but the trend here is seemingly clear.US and China could be going head to head for spare capacity into declining supply.

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=mttntus2&f=m

 

[Errol]

4 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

they will be there, permanantly, with the ability to blockade China with a few hours notice. No ship would go near China and the CCP would collapse in days. They're going to have to behave themselves.

This isn't how that would work. If there was an open blockade we would be in Defcon 2 in hours and Defcon 1 unless the US withdrew. China (and Russia) always have subs in position on both East and West coast. Nuclear launches could happen within minutes giving the US no time to respond or defend themselves.

In any event, China has a massive navy with more than enough assets (including submarines) to track and destroy enemy targets. They are building more constantly. 

Also, Russia can supply most of what China requires. If it comes to the West trying to strangle China, I would expect Russia to step in immediately to supply as much as possible - by land, but also using the Northern sea route. No blockade can be effective with Russia, the country with the most stuff (to put it bluntly) overtly supplying China with all the essentials.

[sancho panza]

5 hours ago, Harley said:

I own a sold down stake.  What's left is red like most of my stuff, but pays a good div.  Not sure if it still makes sugar though.  I think they used to have the imported molasses market but now beet is used, hence the shift?

Tate are big in the sugar alternative business I believe.Mrs P is a food scientist and I've heard T&L mentioned iirc.All the big food producers are using less sugar and more Canderel.

5 hours ago, belfastchild said:

Saw the news last night about China stopping building coal power plants overseas. Was touted as a green issue.
First thought in my head was that China wants to keep the coal for itself.

Yep.Hard to get exposure to coal but anglo pacific are something we're looking at again.Any ideas welcomed...

Decl:already have a first ladder in APF.

4 hours ago, Option5 said:

I heard that the Universities were paying medical students to defer their course, probably due to teaching difficulties with social distancing.

A lot of students got A grades due to covid.Not enough space for those offered places.

[sancho panza]

4 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

And yet China, in 'A very unusual move / MSM' announced they were dumping a chunk of their oil SPR. I think a key think happening now is that China has been used to being the marginal buyer in commodity markets for the last 6 or 7 years, and could pretty much tank the market and set prices when it wants. It can't now, and they are up shit creek. We are in a bull market, with lots of other buyers, one of whom can print the dollars needed to buy real stuff! Big, big change for China. They need to pull that gold backed Yuan out of their arse soon, because as we said way back, they will be competing with the US and India for Middle East oil, as well as all the other commodities they need.

The submarines are significant. Silent, 6 month mission nuclear subs. Significantly, they are getting Tomahawk missiles too. They don't have to do anything, but they will be there, permanantly, with the ability to blockade China with a few hours notice. No ship would go near China and the CCP would collapse in days. They're going to have to behave themselves.

Tieing this in with the US net import data,you predicted declinign US shale which has come about on predicted trend there or thereabouts.

What's happening here intrigues me because it really does set up that classic pre recession oil price spike we've seen before-US oil imports up,worldwide gas/electric production getting hit leads to oil demand up,exploration been offline for a year,US shale prodcution down etc etc

Like you say,they need that gold backed yuan as it's the only way they can compete with US for oil.

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

This is the key point and most miss it.Hunter killer subs arent just about sinking destroyers etc they are about threats.Make it known any cargo ship will be sank,every port in China stops.If China went to war those subs and ours and the Yanks wouldnt be sinking the navy they would sink a few cargo ships and China would be finished.I remember the old footage of HMS Conqueror coming into Faslane with the Skull and Crossbones flying showing a kill.China has nothing that could evade those subs,it would be a turkey shoot.

We saw all this coming ,it was obvious when you looked at the macro,military spending follows.US can do even more damage if they allow Iran back into the world market to shift all the illegal oil going Chinas way.

China is looking more exposed as time progresses,seeing more and more mention of the origins of covid,lots of Western govts are boxed into oppressive pathways that they can't back out of without lsoing face but that they know are going to ruin their spots in the history books(do you remember Bozza's initial talk of covid being a WW2 moment-what a tool-IFR of 0.096%,my head hits the table).

[Yadda yadda yadda]

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

I've just been knocked back from a nice little job GP home visits because I haven't had the 'clot shot'.Fair enough.Reason given that I won't be able to visit care homes from November.

Looking forward to seeing how the ambulance service deals with this.Looks like we could be losing some NHS frontline staff soon as I'd rather get sacked than take the vaccine 1) because I don't think they've been honest about it's long term safety 2) because the IFR for covid isn't too dissimailar to the IFR for flu 3) because we all reach a point in life where we have to make a stand and I'm dead against govts mandating medications to populations

The point I'm making is that if GP's go to a 3 day week,then I'm not sure where the spare supply will come from to cover the gaps.

The NHS is facing being overrun this winter due to the care home collapse which was/is totally avoidable.

Must say,I genuinely think this govt will go down in history as one of teh msot incompetent ever.

I've heard that the online private GP thing my employer provides is very good. Fill in a form and see a GP online same day. Consultant appointment the next day. The NHS is getting privatised or bifurcating. Online appointments don't have to be with someone in the UK. So long as they speak English.

AIG smart health. Might be worth a look to see if there are smaller specialist providers to invest in.

Edit to add that dentistry has already been ruined to the extent where people of modest means (me) have gone private.

[JMD]

6 hours ago, Harley said:

You're not picking on the GPs as they are just an excellent example of your spot on point.  Note the GPs recently voted to restrict further new doctor numbers FFS!  They have the best trade union going.  We have an ageing population and presumably many are now winding down, as they would but no doubt accelerated by covid and other toxic things that continue to circulate.  Other areas include the trades (already well under way thanks to Blair & Co) and farming.  They're even paying incentives for farmers to retire!  I don't know what HMG's end game is but there's going to be an increasingly crunchy crunch!  At it's hopefully going to hit the prats that have lorded over us into this place on social media, media, etc the most.  You know, the ones who wear sandals 'cause they can't even tie shoe laces!  Yes, people are angry, the net contributors the very, very most.

Yes I am mighty suspicious of trade unions that don't call themselves as such. So we have 'the police federation' and 'the general medical council'. Plus to add more insult they are both registered charities!! These bodies are far too powerful for meaningful change to happen. As previous ministers have repeatedly discovered.                                                                                                                                                                                 That vote you mention to restrict numbers of medical students happened back in 2008 I think. At the time the doctor contracts were undergoing government review. It was quiet a battle apparently, however the doctors ended up getting an improved deal, along with increased pensions!! (And which is now allowing many to retire early). One compromise was that the GMC allowed a two track training for new medical students: surgical and non-surgical training. Meaning for example physiatrists needn't study anatomy!! It did lower the tuition costs but as mentioned, the number of doctor training places was reduced, and the GMC was very honest about why they wanted this - in order to protect the status of their working members, the doctors!! Couldn't make this up, and really very depressing.

[JMD]

7 hours ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Harley, I didn't see this vote to further restrict doctor training. I know that the BMA voted to restrict this several years ago but not that they had doubled down lately. Have you got a link for that?

I've just posted on this. I believe those votes happened back in 2008. But I may have muddled the GMC with the GMC! My bad, however my main criticisms of these professional bodies still stand.

[sancho panza]

Sector's on fire today,yesterday and day before.Change from oct 30 2020 lows.Shows BP/RDSB (green/orange)still lagging the msot.EQNR/REP(blue/yellow) doing nicely,XOM lagging too.

Article below it shows the basement dweller thesis going mainstream. @Cattle Prod interesting to see the OPEC story you've been talking about ie spare capacity that isn't really spare capacity getting talked aobut.

 

https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/oil-climbs-on-tight-supply-renewed-risk-appetite-2624132

By Bozorgmehr Sharafedin

LONDON (Reuters) -Oil prices extended gains on Thursday, riding higher on growing fuel demand and a bigger-than-expected draw in U.S. crude inventories as production remains hampered in the Gulf of Mexico after two hurricanes.

Brent crude rose 9 cents, or 0.1%, to $76.28 a barrel at 0856 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was up 4 cents, or 0.1%, to $72.27 a barrel.

Both contracts jumped 2.5% on Wednesday after data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed U.S. crude stocks in the week to Sept. 17 fell by 3.5 million barrels to 414 million - the lowest total since October 2018. [EIA/S]

"With Gulf of Mexico production returning slowly, and natural gas prices remaining sky high, the structural outlook for oil remains promising as OPEC+ struggles to meet even its current production quotas," said Jeffrey Halley, analyst at brokerage OANDA.

Several OPEC+ countries - including Nigeria, Angola and Kazakhstan - have struggled in recent months to raise output due to years of under-investment or maintenance work delayed by the pandemic.

The dollar, which usually has an inverse relationship with commodities prices including oil, eased slightly from a one-month high, after the U.S. Federal Reserve set the stage for rate hikes next year but left enough breathing room to slow things down if necessary.

The Fed "gave advance notice of its tapering intention, thereby confirming its economic optimism, which ultimately points to robust U.S. oil demand," said Barbara Lambrecht, analyst at Commerzbank (DE:CBKG).

The oil market was also supported by a return of appetite for risk assets as concerns eased over a dollar bond interest payment due on Thursday from property developer China Evergrande.

In a sign of strong fuel demand as travel bans ease, East Coast refinery utilisation rates in the United States rose to 93%, the highest since May 2019, EIA data showed.

Market sentiment is also being supported by surging natural gas prices, ANZ Research said.

 

"Supply shortage of gas could encourage power utilities to shift from gas to oil if winter turns out to be colder this year," ANZ analysts wrote in a note.

Gas prices have risen sharply around the globe in recent months due to a combination of factors, including increased demand particularly from Asia as it enters its post-pandemic recovery, low gas inventories, and tighter-than-usual gas supplies from Russia.

 

[Noallegiance]

2 hours ago, feed said:

https://www.teletrader.com/bp-to-ration-fuel-supplies-due-to-driver-shortage/news/details/56415147?internal=1

BP has informed the United Kingdom government that it will only be able to ensure continuity of supply if it restricts petrol and diesel deliveries, according to a report by ITV on Thursday.

The oil giant's delivery capacity is being hamstrung by an ongoing shortage of heavy goods vehicle (HGV) drivers. BP's head of UK retail Hanna Hofer reportedly told the Cabinet Office that the situation was "bad, very bad" and pleaded with officials to grasp the "urgency of the situation."

UK small business minister Paul Scully told ITV that "we are concerned about BP and other sectors where we are hearing those stresses coming to bear," but that "we also want to see what the industry/sector can do for themselves."

 

Sorry, is this a roundabout way of saying we could see rationing over winter?

[Gin]

5 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

 

The submarines are significant. Silent, 6 month mission nuclear subs. Significantly, they are getting Tomahawk missiles too. They don't have to do anything, but they will be there, permanantly, with the ability to blockade China with a few hours notice. No ship would go near China and the CCP would collapse in days. They're going to have to behave themselves.

Taiwan’s air force has scrambled once again to warn off 19 Chinese aircraft that entered its air defence zone, according to its defence ministry, in the latest uptick in tensions across the Taiwan Strait.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/9/23/taiwan-scrambles-jets-as-chinese-aircraft-enter-air-defence-zone

[JMD]

7 hours ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

It is probably this link from 2008. Few know about it and many would be angry if they did. One of those things that the media has never picked up on. Even doctors might not have the brassneck to reduce training further at this time.

https://www.bmj.com/content/337/bmj.a748

No but their medical brassneck does extend to now wanting a 3 day working week! And during a pandemic no less!!! I do think the NHS is heading for a self inflicted crises, and so yes people will become very angry. But I wonder what the fallout will be, in terms of any political winners/losers or even perhaps strong mandate for real health reform?

[Loki]

Umm...10Y note just hit what I believe is David Hunters forecast threshold point, over 1.40%

https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmubmusd10y?countrycode=bx

If it keeps going up perhaps we get the BK without the party first. 

Personally I am assuming it will fall back.

Double check I haven't bollocksed up interpreting/remembering it too 

[reformed nice guy]

2 hours ago, Harley said:

Recovering from some too physical work days for me age, etc....

So went off to look at diesel gens.  Not that expensive relative to petrol or lpg.  Saw small amounts of red for about £1 a litre and one website saying one 5kw gen running at 5O% would use 1 litre (50p) an hour.  So about 40p per kwh?  Expensive versus leccy but not if facing a blackout.  Interesting if diesel was similar to heating oil because heating oil is currently 50p+ a litre bulk.  Even better would be propane heating with a tap off to a backup lpg gen, or for me, a gen that could run on heating oil. Can gens run on heating oil?  Similar stuff, just 2 points lower (higher?) viscosity?

PS:  Regs for diesel storage seem to kick in at 200lts and regarding legality, domestic heating looks like it will not be bothered by the 2022 changes re. red.

PPS: https://www.quora.com/Can-heating-oil-be-used-as-a-diesel-substitute-in-a-diesel-engine?share=1

Cherry is about 61p per litre just, so Iv heard last year I topped up at 45p!

 

 

[JMD]

7 hours ago, Hancock said:

From 2008 so that influx would be trained by now.

I love the line about "devaluing the profession" i think they've done a great job of that themselves, especially since Blair doubled their wages and slashed their hours .... but how the fuck can they manage to make sure no new medical schools are opened!

It's like we're still in the 19th Century.
https://www.bmj.com/content/337/bmj.a748

Yep, all these professional communities are secretive and insular, whether they be health, banking, even construction (see recent appalling high rise building standards), etc. ...it's almost like the Masons are a 'false flag' diversionary tactic, when the real manipulative power games are being performed in plain sight!! Shame on us perhaps for being so foolish and obsequious?!

[Transistor Man]

19 minutes ago, Loki said:

Umm...10Y note just hit what I believe is David Hunters forecast threshold point, over 1.40%

https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmubmusd10y?countrycode=bx

If it keeps going up perhaps we get the BK without the party first. 

Personally I am assuming it will fall back.

Double check I haven't bollocksed up interpreting/remembering it too 

I believe his forecast is: 10 year to 2.5%, during a melt-up.

[reformed nice guy]

Another data point for the thread:

Phoneline is with Sky, dont really use it but new price for standard minutes not including in your package up from 16p to 20p per minute!

[Noallegiance]

46 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

Sorry, is this a roundabout way of saying we could see rationing over winter?

Yes. Yes it is.

Now PETROL is rationed as BP to restrict deliveries and close stations (msn.com)

[Loki]

5 minutes ago, Transistor Man said:

I believe his forecast is: 10 year to 2.5%, during a melt-up.

Thanks for clearing that up!

[Errol]

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

seeing more and more mention of the origins of covid

Yes, the Western propaganda is increasing. They are getting desperate to draw attention away from Fort Detrick and American involvement.

The Russians view the AUKUS agreement as another sign of desperation. It's inept foreign policy - but typical of the US/UK.

[Talking Monkey]

13 hours ago, JMD said:

Exactly spot on DB. That grinding to a halt of the economy, coupled with the alarming lack of inertia by government and other state bodies certainly chimes with me.                                                                                                            Plus im having this nagging feeling that many professional types kinda know the writings on the wall, and have decided to give up or maybe just withdraw - for example the medical profession springs to mind along with their mighty strange 'embrace of covid'. But more specifically the behaviour of the GP community and their abandonment(?) of their patients, perhaps that sounds harsh, but only today I hear that GP representative bodies are saying that 3-day weeks will rapidly become the norm! How can they contemplate even thinking this when the NHS is in the midst of a crises? To be clear I'm not attempting to only pick on the medical community here, it's just that they are the most involved in current events.                                                   Ok rant over and I know this wasn't your main point DB, but I think it is an example of the very big existential(?) problems confronting government. Just wish they were up to the job. But the only possible sense I can pull from this mess is that the whole fiasco 'conveniently' morphs us into the much talked of 'war on covid', meaning massive health spending (Boris gets his 17 hospitals built after all!), plus along with other big spending programs our 'war economy' will necessitate political excuses for the hurried introduction of id's, cbdc's, etc. Hoping this is mere fantastical thinking, but after last year might be '2020' vision!

On GPs specifically could you elaborate on what is the writing on the wall they see. Is that they know in the next 5 to 10 years tech is going to take their jobs or is it something else. 

More generally a real malaise has fallen over the white collar professional types. All the drive has evaporated. 

[RWJ]

3 minutes ago, Talking Monkey said:

More generally a real malaise has fallen over the white collar professional types. All the drive has evaporated. 

My employer has gone all in on 'Mental Wellbeing', and 'Managing Work Intensity' and I think most folks, including me, see that as opportunity to care less.  Not difficult when you're wfh the majority of the time.

I don't know if this is more widespread but I've had some terrible customer service recently from a couple of firms that are normally very good and it feels like the same reason.    

[Barnsey]