Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Starsend]

37 minutes ago, Hancock said:

How comes all Uraniam shares are up . Cameco which is was looking to buy is up 20%

uranium

I was also waiting to buy Cameco, some more silvers as well. All rocketed.

[Starsend]

Below is what the search on Hargreaves Lansdown returns for Gazprom.

Both in USD. First one shows a dividend yield of over 13%, second one over 7%?

Anybody know which one to buy? Is one preferable over the other?

 

GAZ	Gazprom Neft OJSC Level 1 ADR each Representing 5 Ordinary Shares
OGZD	PJSC Gazprom ADS each Representing 2 Ordinary Shares

[DurhamBorn]

4 hours ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

 

I just checked my bullionvault acc, i'm up 61%, BUT, FFS I forgot to spend the £3K cash left in there on silver last March! what to do ...buy NOW?

 

NA...if i BUY now I'll put a curse on the silver price AND it will surely COLLAPSE ...and @DurhamBorn's son won't be able to pay off his mortgage BY this Friday at 4.27pm!

 

SO...let's have another CRAZY week...watch our silver miners go to the MOON ...whilst munching on popcorn!

 

Did you get Endeavour Silver ? ,more than trebled now,,silver miners running hard this early is lovely.Once there is too much fiat and no interest silver always has a cycle.Im really pleased the youngsters have latched on.One,because it makes us lots of profit,but also because it is showing them all what real money is.The CBs will be very worried about this.Whats happening is people swapping Fiat for silver.Paper market will be in big trouble is they are buying physical as they should be.People will demand delivery then it gets interesting 

[Ma2]

Interesting background from goldsilver.com -

 

"As many predicted with the social media chatter of a "silver squeeze", this weekend saw unusually high demand for precious metals, especially physical silver, causing many sites including ours to run low on stock or temporarily stop taking orders.

This rush on physical silver came at a time when the industry was already experiencing tight supply: a year of significantly higher than previous volumes which stretched many mints to their limits, the US Mint providing very limited allocations of its most popular product pending a redesign, and stocks of generally stretched thin as holders are simply not selling.

In fact, over the weekend we saw over 50 times the number of buys as sells. This is exacerbated because bid/ask spreads widen quickly in physical metals markets when supply thins out. Ask premiums rise rapidly with demand. Yet future mint allocations, which are often at pre-contracted premiums, slow the speed at which bid premiums rise and eventually pull asks back down toward them. We saw this last Spring and are seeing it again now.

This spike in demand quickly drove up spot prices, as well, jumping nearly 20% in the past week, much of that since Friday. There are many good fundamental reasons for silver prices to be higher than they have been, as Jeff Clark has often outlined.

However, moves this fast in premiums and spot prices can often reverse as quickly, so we encourage all of our customers to exercise good judgment and disciplined trading in volatile markets.

Regards,

Alex Daley, president of GoldSilver.com"

[Errol]

[DurhamBorn]

2 hours ago, geordie_lurch said:

Bp has gone firmly under 270p now - currently 266.5p so not sure where the next bottom for that might be

Silver miners have trebled from when my rubber band list was on the thread,markets arent linear,its too late once they move.Just buy the oilies and wait.Dont worry about every small move.The market whipsaws out most people.You have to have a roadmap and focus to make the real money.BP will give 200% to 300% from here for the cycle probably.Its where we are going that matters.

[geordie_lurch]

17 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Silver miners have trebled from when my rubber band list was on the thread,markets arent linear,its too late once they move.Just buy the oilies and wait.Dont worry about every small move.The market whipsaws out most people.You have to have a roadmap and focus to make the real money.BP will give 200% to 300% from here for the cycle probably.Its where we are going that matters.

Yep I agree @DurhamBorn and posted later this pm here saying I was just about done swapping things around but had managed to get upto another 10% worth of oilies and others from where things were a few weeks ago

[arrow]

From the FT, BP selling tight gas assets. One of the reader comments was that BP should sell its "dirty" stake in Rosneft.  BP better not capitulate to the sjw crowd and sell its Rosneft stake, otherwise what's the point in investing in the company.

 

"BP sells $2.6bn stake in Oman gas block to Thailand’s PTT

Disposal is part of $25bn divestment plan as oil major seeks funds to invest in clean energy

BP is aiming to cut production by 40 per cent under chief executive Bernard Looney

BP has agreed to sell a 20 per cent stake in an Oman gas block for $2.6bn to Thailand’s national oil company PTT as part of the UK energy major’s $25bn divestment programme. 

After the sale, which is expected to complete this year, BP will remain the operator of the block and hold a 40 per cent stake. Oman’s state oil company OQ and Malaysia’s Petronas are other shareholders. 

The company has had an exploration and production presence in Oman since 2007 when it signed the original production-sharing agreement for Block 61.

BP is targeting divestments of $25bn by 2025 as it streamlines its operations, raises cash and cuts production by 40 per cent under chief executive Bernard Looney. 

The company wants to generate funds to deploy into cleaner energy investments as part of a goal to become a net-zero emissions company by 2050.

BP will release its fourth-quarter earnings on Tuesday, capping a brutal year as the coronavirus pandemic has battered the industry’s finances. At the end of the third quarter, BP’s debt stood at $40.4bn.

Block 61 covers close to 4,000km in central Oman and contains the largest tight gas development in the Middle East. This is where hydraulic fracturing is required to extract natural gas from reservoir rocks. The block has had two phases of field development — Khazzan, which began production in 2017, and Ghazeer in October.

The projects have a daily production capacity of 1.5bn cubic feet of gas, which is fed into Oman’s national grid, and more than 65,000 barrels of ultralight condensate oil. Total resources amount to 10.5tn cubic feet of gas.

“We are committed to BP’s business in Oman — this agreement allows us to remain at the heart of this world-class development while also making important progress in our global divestment programme,” said Mr Looney.

BP is also part of a production sharing agreement for another development, Block 77, and its trading business also buys liquefied natural gas from Oman LNG under a seven-year deal starting in 2018.

As part of its disposal plan, BP recently completed the $5bn divestment of its petrochemicals business to Jim Ratcliffe’s Ineos.

European oil majors have become more selective about where they invest as finances come under greater scrutiny and pressure mounts from investors and environmentalists to make greener investments. 

BP has identified Canadian oil sands projects and assets offshore Angola among those that are likely to be uneconomical under more conservative crude price scenarios.

The company plans a 10-fold increase in investment in low carbon energy to about $5bn each year by 2030, seeking a 20-fold increase in renewables capacity.

Giacomo Romeo at Jefferies said the deal, while raising cash for BP, was at odds with a broader strategy to stick with low cost, lower emissions hydrocarbon assets. “The divestment reduces BP exposure to low cost gas assets and it could be indicative of the difficult market conditions faced by upstream asset sellers,” he said."

[arrow]

33 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

I did exactly that too.

If I can be nosy Cattle Prod, which oilies did you choose?

[Loki]

Are we going to have to try and contact BP management or something?  How is it possible their highly paid staff know less about this than a clever man from Durham who kindly started these threads for free?

[DurhamBorn]

4 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

Yep I agree @DurhamBorn and posted later this pm here saying I was just about done swapping things around but had managed to get upto another 10% worth of oilies and others from where things were a few weeks ago

Iv sliced a lot of silver miners here and will finish topping up BAT and Imperial tomorrow and more oilies across the board.We have been lucky that the sectors havent all ran together as its amplified the gains so far by a large amount.The larger cap stocks wont provide the fireworks,but hopefully can run the full cycle up.

[DurhamBorn]

3 minutes ago, Loki said:

Are we going to have to try and contact BP management or something?  How is it possible their highly paid staff know less about this than a clever man from Durham who kindly started these threads for free?

They might want more access to Thailand for their trading business 

[Loki]

1 minute ago, DurhamBorn said:

They might want more access to Thailand for their trading business 

I see, thanks mate

[Bricormortis]

8 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

They might want more access to Thailand for their trading business 

I am concerned they dont know what they are doing...I am interested in topping up my oiles at these prices, but I am in two minds about BP.

[Don Coglione]

2 minutes ago, Bricormortis said:

I am concerned they dont know what they are doing...I am interested in topping up my oiles at these prices, but I am in two minds about BP.

I don't think that the lure of wokedom can be completely dismissed...

[DurhamBorn]

With BP watch their Russian stakes.If they hold them then they are playing to the gallery.Big oil likes to build relationships,and they might want to build one with Thailands state energy company.Green energy will be a bubble,but big oil knows the real danger is nuclear.They are happy to keep the world looking at windmills and solar,they can profit from that themselves while keeping nuclear away from the base load.

[harp]

 

1 hour ago, Hancock said:

How comes all Uraniam shares are up . Cameco which is was looking to buy is up 20%

uranium

 

2 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

With BP watch their Russian stakes.If they hold them then they are playing to the gallery.Big oil likes to build relationships,and they might want to build one with Thailands state energy company.Green energy will be a bubble,but big oil knows the real danger is nuclear.They are happy to keep the world looking at windmills and solar,they can profit from that themselves while keeping nuclear away from the base load.

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/cameco-uranium-stocks-soar-after-bofa-predicts-jump-global-uranium-demand

[Democorruptcy]

7 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

With BP watch their Russian stakes.If they hold them then they are playing to the gallery.Big oil likes to build relationships,and they might want to build one with Thailands state energy company.Green energy will be a bubble,but big oil knows the real danger is nuclear.They are happy to keep the world looking at windmills and solar,they can profit from that themselves while keeping nuclear away from the base load.

There's one here looking for some investment:

 

Quote

 

Britain’s unaffordable nuclear power plans collapse, one by one

Times 31st Jan 2021, Nuclear winter for Britain as power plants close. Hinkley Point is last man standing as other power stations are scrapped. Hitachi president Hiroaki Nakanishi had a grand dream when
the Japanese giant paid £696 million for the right to build two nuclear power stations in the UK. “Today starts our 100-year commitment to the UK and its vision to achieve a long-term, secure, low- carbon and affordable energy supply,” declared Nakanishi in 2012, as he signed a deal to buy the Horizon nuclear project from Germany’s RWE and Eon.

 

Nakanishi’s plan was to use the UK as a shop window for its reactors, installing them at Wylfa on Anglesey in north Wales and Oldbury-on-Severn in south Gloucestershire. Wylfa would provide enough power to supply the whole of Wales. Together, the two sites could power about 10 million homes.

 

Last week, that bold vision lay in tatters as Hitachi pulled down the shutters on Horizon, which it will wind up by the end of March. It has cancelled its application for a development consent order — a formal process needed to secure planning permission — for the £20 billion Wylfa Newydd plant, despite having spent £2 billion exploring every aspect of the project, from the rock strata on the island to the location of Roman ruins.

 

British Gas parent <insert name> scrapped plans to invest in new nuclear power in 2013and for the past few years has been trying to sell its 20 per cent stake in the existing fleet of British Energy plants. Russian and Canadian operators have also abandoned attempts to build reactors in this country.

 

Another planned EDF plant, at Sizewell in Suffolk, has been given encouragement by the government, but EDF faces years of negotiations with ministers over the financial structure of a deal.

 

CGN hopes to install its home-grown reactor, the Hualong One, at Bradwell-on-Sea in Essex, but must overcome opposition from Tory MPs and the United States.

 

The biggest obstacles to nuclear have always been cost and risk. The retreat of Hitachi and Toshiba showed that only governments dare take the risk of building nuclear stations —
particularly when they are the first of a new design. Treason May’s government eventually offered to take a third of the equity in Horizon alongside the Japanese government and Hitachi. Boris Johnson’s administration is exploring a new financial model, the regulated asset base, where investors could earn a return during construction.

 

All that was too late for Horizon, led by Duncan Hawthorne. In a letter to the unions
that had begged Hitachi to grant the project a reprieve, executive Toshikazu Nishino said that it had not received adequate backing from government.https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/nuclear-winter-for-britain-as-power-plants-close-gb8c5dx07

 

https://antinuclear.net/2021/01/31/britains-unaffordable-nuclear-power-plans-collapse-one-by-one/

 

 

[DurhamBorn]

2 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

I rotated options in SIL (expensive now) into to options in XLE (cheap now). My oil stock allocations are full and won't be touched for years, so I play around with options to keep me away from mischief with my long term holdings. XLE is dominated by XOM and Chevron, look cheap at the moment. Most big oilies have almost completed a .382 fibb retrace of the whole move, that's all it is. Leads and lags - stocks will lag oil as it runs up, like in 2007, as investors keep thinking oil is going to fall back and they try and front run it. Then when oil doesn't pull back as much as they thought, they rush to catch up. This is much of the stairstep pattern you see in stocks that correlate with commodities I think.

I wish BP would halt paying off debt and buy back shares.One thing that really annoys me with big oil is they pay off debt at the bottom of the cycle,and buy back shares at the top.XLE should go up 40% in the next move up.Im actually tempted to get some Schlum.

[Heart's Ease]

21 minutes ago, harp said:

 

 

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/cameco-uranium-stocks-soar-after-bofa-predicts-jump-global-uranium-demand

All go!

[arrow]

16 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

I rotated options in SIL (expensive now) into to options in XLE (cheap now). My oil stock allocations are full and won't be touched for years, so I play around with options to keep me away from mischief with my long term holdings. XLE is dominated by XOM and Chevron, look cheap at the moment. Most big oilies have almost completed a .382 fibb retrace of the whole move, that's all it is. Leads and lags - stocks will lag oil as it runs up, like in 2007, as investors keep thinking oil is going to fall back and they try and front run it. Then when oil doesn't pull back as much as they thought, they rush to catch up. This is much of the stairstep pattern you see in stocks that correlate with commodities I think.

Edit: I just checked Chevron, it just bounced right off the .382 fibb for a slightly higher low. That's one to watch, see if it holds. All sorts of technical traders will have sold that double top. Let's see who's right.

Thanks Cattle Prod, what do you think of the wsj article about a possible merger?

https://www.wsj.com/articles/exxon-chevron-ceos-discussed-merger-11612126203?mod=markets_lead_pos12

"The chief executives of Exxon Mobil Corp. XOM +0.00% and Chevron Corp. CVX +1.28% spoke about combining the oil giants after the pandemic shook the world last year, according to people familiar with the talks, testing the waters for what could be one of the largest corporate mergers ever."

 

[Democorruptcy]

11 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I wish BP would halt paying off debt and buy back shares.One thing that really annoys me with big oil is they pay off debt at the bottom of the cycle,and buy back shares at the top.XLE should go up 40% in the next move up.Im actually tempted to get some Schlum.

Maybe they think the debt might be more expensive to roll over because of the climate changers? Some of our MPs were criticising cheap BoE funding for high carbon firms last week.

[DurhamBorn]

1 minute ago, Democorruptcy said:

Maybe they think the debt might be more expensive to roll over because of the climate changers? Some of our MPs were criticising cheap BoE funding for high carbon firms last week.

Yes good point,maybe they think they need to clear rather than roll over and be at the mercy of the woke.

[Castlevania]

I think BP’s problem is that the green bits (BP Lightsource for example) are effectively run as separate companies that borrow independently of the main company.

It would be better if they did all the borrowing as one company. Then you can get around the ESG rules that some pension funds and banks have; state that the money is for something green and then just use it for general corporate purposes.

Edit: looks like most of the green bits are joint ventures; which would explain why they borrow as separate companies.

 

[DurhamBorn]

@Cattle Prod do you know who the main players are in Co2 EOR ,enhance oil recovery?.My roadmap says renewables will fail to cover key areas and countries will have to find other ways to reduce carbon.EOR could be big in that.I take it Shlum would be a big gainer?,are there any others of the top of your head to research?.Im going to have to get my skates on in this area as likely the players will run up with oil even before the market wakes up to how we will really lower carbon.