Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[leonardratso]

50 minutes ago, BurntBread said:

So, what happens if you hold shares in a public company, through an online brokerage, the company gets taken private, and you refuse to sell?

Are you forced to sell when the deal goes through? If not, do the shares stay listed in your account, or do you get mailed the share certificate? Does Ivan come round every year and stuff roubles through your letterbox as a dividend? Do you get invited to Moscow for the AGM and have to drink home-distilled vodka until you go blind?

haha, no idea, but i aint waiting around to find out, i just elected to get £8.50 a share and then the special divi of 27cents a share on 21st april. Good enough. I should be receiving a massive payday of £17 and then 54cents later, im just off down the porsche dealer ship, see if i cant buy a couple of valve caps or maybe 1 and a half packet of fags with the proceeds.

[NogintheNog]

57 minutes ago, BurntBread said:

So, what happens if you hold shares in a public company, through an online brokerage, the company gets taken private, and you refuse to sell?

Are you forced to sell when the deal goes through? If not, do the shares stay listed in your account, or do you get mailed the share certificate? Does Ivan come round every year and stuff roubles through your letterbox as a dividend? Do you get invited to Moscow for the AGM and have to drink home-distilled vodka until you go blind?

I can give some info on this as I recently had experience of just that happening to me.

I used to have a holding of Highland Gold Mining (LON: HGM now de listed) worth about £4500. Fortiana Holdings came in and offered £3.00 a share to take the company private. I let £3000 worth go but held onto £1500 of shares in case they didn't get taken out. However Fortiana got the required amount of shares and the Company was de listed. It still showed I had £1500 of shares in my account but I couldn't sell them or do anything with them. I contacted my ISA provider and they said they were waiting to hear from Fortiana about payment for the outstanding shares. To be fair about three months later they paid the £3.00 rate and I finally got my £1500 back in my account, now reinvested in HOC.
If I'd have realised what a ball ache it was going to be I'd have let the lot go much earlier on!

https://highlandgold.com/home/news-media/company-news/2021/fortiana-holdings-limited-completed-the-compulsory-acquisition-of-highland-gold-mining-limited/

So in answer to your question BurntBread, you will effectively be forced to sell if the private owners take control. Just make sure you will get the rate that they are offering.

[leonardratso]

@M S E Refugee thesis about failed vaccines versus the BK i find interesting, actually quite compelling to be honest, what with even just a halt of use enough to upset the apple cart, i can see a widespread failure having a heavy impact, more so if it causes some unintended consequences down the road, ie vaccinated people having some other sort of related problem, of course it will all be nothing to do with the vaccine as i keep hearing about people with covid post vaccine or even dead post vaccine, something i very much believe (ps, im a compulsive liar[or is that a lie as well]).

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/futures-slide-after-us-suspends-jj-vaccine

[Fully Detached]

19 hours ago, M S E Refugee said:

Does anyone think that Vaccine failure could trigger the Big Kahuna?

A few highly Vaxxed Countries are seeing a surge in cases.

The US has apparently just suspended use of the J&J vaccine due to blood clot risk, so we might be about to find out.

Ref your question, I am quite convinced that governments around the world have fiddled the figures to suit their own agendas since the very beginning of the pandemic, and will continue to do so. In other words, whether the vaccine(s) are successful or not is probably less relevant than what those governments decide they want the truth to be.

[jamtomorrow]

5 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

@M S E Refugee thesis about failed vaccines versus the BK i find interesting, actually quite compelling to be honest, what with even just a halt of use enough to upset the apple cart, i can see a widespread failure having a heavy impact, more so if it causes some unintended consequences down the road, ie vaccinated people having some other sort of related problem, of course it will all be nothing to do with the vaccine as i keep hearing about people with covid post vaccine or even dead post vaccine, something i very much believe (ps, im a compulsive liar[or is that a lie as well]).

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/futures-slide-after-us-suspends-jj-vaccine

BK-wise, one thing I'd like to understand better is what's likely to happen to working capital needs from here.

The situation we're in today looks like a once-in-a-few-lifetimes to me: inventories must already be at historic lows because of the fad for just-in-time, with COVID having amplified that further.

But now, as the economy re-opens *and* JIT suddenly becomes very unfashionable indeed (because inflation), I wonder if we'll see a bit of a scramble to find additional working capital? Maybe this is what will sort the wheat from the chaff and push the zombies with weak balance sheets off the cliff (finally)?

[Hancock]

2 hours ago, Harley said:

To think I nearly sold them yesterday!  But should I sell the news?  They are one of my worst holdings and well in the red.  I was holding them to sell out higher.  Very tempted here and I may regret it but I'll hold for now.  One of the stocks I bought (but I shouldn't have) because of the limited market choice with my ISA.  One of those times I should have played with a basketball instead!  Some financials have improved but that 100% debt to equity ratio is now a big no for me (although has improved) whatever the push and net intangible assets just about exceed equity!

Up 43% now (it was 45% when i started typing), my holding is up about 15% so will hold on to see how this one goes.

Sunak's going to be getting his cheque book out for military equipment in the coming year, may help get back to where they were several years ago.

[Wheeler]

1 hour ago, PrincessDrac said:

US CPI  Link

 

March #CPI slightly stronger than expected at 2.6% y/y vs. 2.5% est. & 1.7% in prior month; core at 1.6% y/y vs. 1.5% est. & 1.3% in prior month

 

 

I've been watching the actual figures for the past couple of months and it is clear that CPI is accelerating. Obviously the US Fed will try and spin it as temporary but a month on month increase of 0.62% isn't impacted by last year's base effect! There have been 5 months now where the percentage increase over the previous month has increased:

My prediction is it will show year on year CPI of 4% next month and 4.8% the month after. We could be on for 6% by October with the Fed talking about tightening, just in time for the BK.

 

[geordie_lurch]

Anyone got any plans to try and get some Coinbase Global Inc shares after their IPO tomorrow? I think it will race higher as it's actually a rare profitable tech company and an interesting hedge on the Crypto space given it makes it's money from transaction fees.

[leonardratso]

30 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

Anyone got any plans to try and get some Coinbase Global Inc shares after their IPO tomorrow? I think it will race higher as it's actually a rare profitable tech company and an interesting hedge on the Crypto space given it makes it's money from transaction fees.

might sell some blockchain shite and dabble, mind you my foray into LSEG wasnt a huge success and they live off fees. Still, who knows. Where are they likely to be available on IPO, i usually dont see them for quite a while after theyve spunked their 1st day away or so.

[Optimistic]

26 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

Anyone got any plans to try and get some Coinbase Global Inc shares after their IPO tomorrow? I think it will race higher as it's actually a rare profitable tech company and an interesting hedge on the Crypto space given it makes it's money from transaction fees.

Ditto your comments! I think it will be an interesting one too! I bought my first lot of crypto with them. Totally new world for me but was recommended xrp. It was delisted by coinbase due to the SEC case with Ripple but have been flying this past week, despite the court case! Bet they missed out on all the transaction fees of late! 

[invalid]

1 hour ago, Wheeler said:

I've been watching the actual figures for the past couple of months and it is clear that CPI is accelerating. Obviously the US Fed will try and spin it as temporary but a month on month increase of 0.62% isn't impacted by last year's base effect! There have been 5 months now where the percentage increase over the previous month has increased:

My prediction is it will show year on year CPI of 4% next month and 4.8% the month after. We could be on for 6% by October with the Fed talking about tightening, just in time for the BK.

 

 

A quick UK based anecdote on inflation. A niche telecoms provider that for many years has allowed customers to purchase up to five years in advance fixed at todays prices. They have just cut that to 3 years as they are concerned about inflation in their costs and not wanting to be locked in on prices.

Seems like a perfect real world example of what DB has been saying.

[Lightscribe]

50 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

Anyone got any plans to try and get some Coinbase Global Inc shares after their IPO tomorrow? I think it will race higher as it's actually a rare profitable tech company and an interesting hedge on the Crypto space given it makes it's money from transaction fees.

Normally I would view these IPOs like Roblox etc. Most of the stock is taken up by the big boys on the cheap, then the retails dive in when it floats it initially spikes then drops back below as the big boys sell out.

I think Coinbase could be different. It’s the original largest ‘normie’ friendly exchange. 99% of all small value BTC/ETH owners would have bought them via Coinbase. For that reason I think a lot of traditional investors will pile in for the name that they have ‘heard’ of and is an alternative exposure to crypto in general.

 

[Fully Detached]

3 hours ago, Fully Detached said:

The US has apparently just suspended use of the J&J vaccine due to blood clot risk, so we might be about to find out.

Ref your question, I am quite convinced that governments around the world have fiddled the figures to suit their own agendas since the very beginning of the pandemic, and will continue to do so. In other words, whether the vaccine(s) are successful or not is probably less relevant than what those governments decide they want the truth to be.

Correction - I am wrong about this, it seems the US has not yet suspended use but there is increasing pressure for them to do so.

[Lightscribe]

49 minutes ago, Fully Detached said:

Correction - I am wrong about this, it seems the US has not yet suspended use but there is increasing pressure for them to do so.

Even here in the UK, the government statistics for reactions and fatalities are all readily available and yet get no mention. These are from January to March and I suspect these will naturally increase the more they are rolled out to a wider range of people with pre-existing conditions etc and second doses are administered.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-vaccine-adverse-reactions/coronavirus-vaccine-summary-of-yellow-card-reporting#annex-1-vaccine-analysis-print

Recent studies also show that those with both Pfizer doses are more eight times more at risk to the South African variant than unvaccinated. 

https://www.foxnews.com/health/israel-covid-19-study-south-africa-variant-pfizer-vaccine.amp

I can quite easily see a suspension of the vaccine rollout in western counties leading to the BK. I think eventually a continuous updatable mRNA vaccine program will be put in place instead.

Problem is if the big blast off of opening the global economy doesn’t happen, it could be the trigger to blast it the other way.

 

[Tingles]

2 hours ago, geordie_lurch said:

Anyone got any plans to try and get some Coinbase Global Inc shares after their IPO tomorrow? I think it will race higher as it's actually a rare profitable tech company and an interesting hedge on the Crypto space given it makes it's money from transaction fees.

Tempted due to the direct listing and because it's an NWO company with strong FED ties.  Conversely, happy to stay on the cash sidelines due to the BK possibility which could provide the opportunity to get in later and cheaper.  It's a difficult one as I am currently actively reducing my exposure to equities/funds.

[geordie_lurch]

Yes important to mention it is the first major direct listing to take place on the Nasdaq too.

[Barnsey]

4 hours ago, PrincessDrac said:

US CPI  Link

 

March #CPI slightly stronger than expected at 2.6% y/y vs. 2.5% est. & 1.7% in prior month; core at 1.6% y/y vs. 1.5% est. & 1.3% in prior month

 

 

Couple others...

 

[Hancock]

1 hour ago, Lightscribe said:

I can quite easily see a suspension of the vaccine rollout in western counties leading to the BK. I think eventually a continuous updatable mRNA vaccine program will be put in place instead.

Problem is if the big blast off of opening the global economy doesn’t happen, it could be the trigger to blast it the other way.

 

Sooner or later they'll just say its just another flu virus and you plebs under 75 shall not be needing these vaccinations forevermore.

A planet in permanent fear will create a "Permanent Kahuna". 

[Lightscribe]

8 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Sooner or later they'll just say its just another flu virus and you plebs under 75 shall not be needing these vaccinations forevermore.

A planet in permanent fear will create a "Permanent Kahuna". 

And there lies the pivot point. Some people believe we will see ‘normal’ again, some people believe this is the start of the ‘new normal’.

[Hancock]

11 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

And there lies the pivot point. Some people believe we will see ‘normal’ again, some people believe this is the start of the ‘new normal’.

I believe its the latter, but there must be many varieties of the "new normal".

I think we'll get a dystopian new normal, where many people like me are more afraid of our govt, than bedwetters are of Covid.

 

[Lightscribe]

9 minutes ago, Hancock said:

I believe its the latter, but there must be many varieties of the "new normal".

I think we'll get a dystopian new normal, where many people like me are more afraid of our govt, than bedwetters are of Covid.

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/pentagon-covid-microchip-blood-virus-b1830372.html
 

well I for one will be opting out... 

[Iamcynical]

7 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/pentagon-covid-microchip-blood-virus-b1830372.html
 

well I for one will be opting out... 

But why ?

It's totally for your benefit.  The government cares about you and wants to keep you safe from harm..

Trust the government..

[JimmyTheBruce]

8 hours ago, Hancock said:

Up 43% now (it was 45% when i started typing), my holding is up about 15% so will hold on to see how this one goes.

Sunak's going to be getting his cheque book out for military equipment in the coming year, may help get back to where they were several years ago.

I managed to pick some up at 2 quid, which is about as close to a bottom that I've ever managed to get.... [insert cheap bum joke here].  Didn't buy a great amount so I think I'll just hold on for the ride.

Next year Rodders....

[Rave]

8 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

Recent studies also show that those with both Pfizer doses are more eight times more at risk to the South African variant than unvaccinated. 

https://www.foxnews.com/health/israel-covid-19-study-south-africa-variant-pfizer-vaccine.amp

Having had two doses of Pfizer the idea that it makes me 8 times more prone to catching the SA variant alarmed me somewhat, so I thought I'd better click on your link to see if it's true.

And fortunately it's not. In fact it's total bollocks.

What the study actually found was that, of 400 people who have been vaccinated and yet still contracted covid, 5%, so presumably a grand total of 22 people, had the SA variant. They then compared that with 400 people who had not been vaccinated and caught covid, and found that only 0.7% of them had the SA variant.

What the study, which by the way hasn't yet been peer reviewed, does not seem to have concerned itself with is any attempt to compare the covid infection rates of people who have been vaccinated with people who have not. Even if you accept that the study has been done properly and that you can get meaningful results from such small numbers, all that can be inferred from it is that the Pfizer vaccine is less effective at preventing infection by the SA variant than it is at preventing infection by other variants. There is absolutely nothing in it at all to suggest that it increases the SA variant infection rate by 8 times.

Now I have no particular axe to grind here; obviously I have had the vaccine but I really don't particularly care if other people make an informed choice not to get it. The problem I have is that if people misinterpret scientific studies and then post their misinterpretation on the internet as fact, then that makes it harder for other people to make an informed choice. And pretty much all the studies I've seen show that the Pfizer vaccine, while expensive to buy and store, is both highly effective and as safe as you can reasonably expect a vaccine to be. If someone didn't take it based on your misinterpretation of a study that's pretty limited to start with, I think that would be a bit off, frankly.

And so because of that, rather than just to be a prick, I feel justified in doing the following.

@geordie_lurch @invalid @The Idiocrat @Fully Detached @sancho panza Please be aware that the above post which you marked as 'informative' completely misinterprets the scientific study it links to.

[Lightscribe]

12 minutes ago, Rave said:

Having had two doses of Pfizer the idea that it makes me 8 times more prone to catching the SA variant alarmed me somewhat, so I thought I'd better click on your link to see if it's true.

And fortunately it's not. In fact it's total bollocks.

What the study actually found was that, of 400 people who have been vaccinated and yet still contracted covid, 5%, so presumably a grand total of 22 people, had the SA variant. They then compared that with 400 people who had not been vaccinated and caught covid, and found that only 0.7% of them had the SA variant.

What the study, which by the way hasn't yet been peer reviewed, does not seem to have concerned itself with is any attempt to compare the covid infection rates of people who have been vaccinated with people who have not. Even if you accept that the study has been done properly and that you can get meaningful results from such small numbers, all that can be inferred from it is that the Pfizer vaccine is less effective at preventing infection by the SA variant than it is at preventing infection by other variants. There is absolutely nothing in it at all to suggest that it increases the SA variant infection rate by 8 times.

Now I have no particular axe to grind here; obviously I have had the vaccine but I really don't particularly care if other people make an informed choice not to get it. The problem I have is that if people misinterpret scientific studies and then post their misinterpretation on the internet as fact, then that makes it harder for other people to make an informed choice. And pretty much all the studies I've seen show that the Pfizer vaccine, while expensive to buy and store, is both highly effective and as safe as you can reasonably expect a vaccine to be. If someone didn't take it based on your misinterpretation of a study that's pretty limited to start with, I think that would be a bit off, frankly.

And so because of that, rather than just to be a prick, I feel justified in doing the following.

@geordie_lurch @invalid @The Idiocrat @Fully Detached @sancho panza Please be aware that the above post which you marked as 'informative' completely misinterprets the scientific study it links to.

Yes I can see it’s yet to be peer reviewed, it says it in the article. I was merely linking to to it and repeated what it stated within it. Pretty much everyone here is very apt at doing their own research.

I don’t want to turn this into a Covid or vaccination thread, there’s plenty of other threads on here for that.

The reasoning behind the post was in response to other comments stating that any further suspensions/reviews/age group suitably etc , could delay the global economy bouncing back as quickly as expected, thus providing the catalyst for the BK event we have speculated on.