Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[kibuc]

19 hours ago, sancho panza said:

The issue is that our politcal class have become accustomed to lockdowns for a variety of reasons.Obsessed even.It really does have the feel of them wanting another lockdown,I'm jsut not sure the economy could stand it.

I think the (in)famous quote from Ferguson explains it neatly: "We couldn't get away with it in Europe, we thought… and then Italy did it. And we realised we could".

Orwell knew that power is not a mean to achieve your goal, it's a goal in itself. It's highly corruptive and highly addictive. Don't think for a moment that politicians from the past didn't dream of having totalitarian powers and ruling the nation iron-fist style, it's just that they knew (or thought) it would never happen for them in a democratic society and that showing their true colours would end their political lives. And then Italy did it, and they all realised they could.

[Lightscribe]

I know there’s some in here that are interested so a 2nd quick crypto update (no more I promise) 

As explained above it may hit $50 sooner rather than later, which I’ll keep tabs on the volume and as well as the Coinbase stock token today.
If LINK has got plenty more in the tank at that point, I’ll let it ride and get allocation of Coinbase from funds elsewhere depending how that moves. LINK may have some way to go still to reach it’s own parity with the current BTC price (it’s one of the only major cryptos that hasn’t done that yet)

 

 

[TNS]

Argo now back below 200p, tempted to have a punt in the hope of a quicker than average gain ! 

[sancho panza]

20 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

@sancho panza i think they will use both.We might see some QE still and a rate increase.The thing to remember here is the CBs havent really monetised government debt,they have monetised private debt by the government handing the printed money to the public and companies.So yes in pure simple terms the CBs monetised government debt,but the real affect was monetising private debt.

Why do that?,well because they want the private sector to take over the recovery from government once its in flow so governments structural deficits can be eliminated.Fed will be wanting to keep the long end from going up anymore i expect and the way to do that is to raise the short end to look like your taking inflation serious,but not letting the curve invert.

Main thing to watch is inflation.I dont think they will do anything before 3%,and then if they tighten too quickly,BK.

DB,thanks for that.I hadn't really looked at it that way before.

18 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Euro should do well from the Feds next moves 

 

Stronger Euro is one of my check lists pre BK.Are you seeing the Fed beginning to rpint more heavily?have you got a target roadmap wise for USD/EUro?

[DurhamBorn]

2 hours ago, sancho panza said:

DB,thanks for that.I hadn't really looked at it that way before.

Stronger Euro is one of my check lists pre BK.Are you seeing the Fed beginning to rpint more heavily?have you got a target roadmap wise for USD/EUro?

No,i think they will keep it steady if they can,they will want the long end yield to drop a little bit though.Target for Euro v Dollar is 1.262 ,market wont be expecting that.Of course that assumes a European bank doesnt blow up first.

[BurntBread]

21 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

No,i think they will keep it steady if they can,they will want the long end yield to drop a little bit though.Target for Euro v Dollar is 1.262 ,market wont be expecting that.Of course that assumes a European bank doesnt blow up first.

Do you have a view on which banks are most at risk? I'm guessing Deutche Bank must be at, or at least near, the top; but there other ones (Italian?) we should be keeping an eye on?

[feed]

 

GSK

 

 

https://www.sharecast.com/news/news-and-announcements/glaxo-shares-rally-as-elliott-said-to-have-built-significant-stake--7871418.html

GlaxoSmithKline shares shot higher on Thursday as it emerged that activist hedge fund Elliott Management has built a multibillion-pound stake in the pharmaceuticals company.

 

[DurhamBorn]

David Hunter Twitter 

Listening to CalSTRS CIO on CNBC,one has to be very concerned about who's running these public pension funds today & the poor returns that will result. He's going on & on about climate change & how he's positioning the portfolio for that.Even more unfunded liabilities will result

[janch]

Thanks for this @feedas I was just looking at my account, refreshed it and saw the jump which I couldn't find any reason for.  In fact I nearly sold to lock in the profit but decided to hang on instead as it seems to be holding.

I realised I haven't had the divi due on 08/04.  Is it just delayed because it's a US share? I have it on LSE.

[leonardratso]

7 minutes ago, janch said:

Thanks for this @feedas I was just looking at my account, refreshed it and saw the jump which I couldn't find any reason for.  In fact I nearly sold to lock in the profit but decided to hang on instead as it seems to be holding.

I realised I haven't had the divi due on 08/04.  Is it just delayed because it's a US share?

hmm, strange that, i got my divi from them, was very small amount cos i dont hold a lot, but it definately came in on lloyds isa (rebadged halifax).

08 Apr 2021

GLAXOSMITHKLINE ORD GBP0.25

[Harley]

1 hour ago, feed said:

 

GSK

 

 

https://www.sharecast.com/news/news-and-announcements/glaxo-shares-rally-as-elliott-said-to-have-built-significant-stake--7871418.html

GlaxoSmithKline shares shot higher on Thursday as it emerged that activist hedge fund Elliott Management has built a multibillion-pound stake in the pharmaceuticals company.

 

Ta.  Was looking to add more once the monthly signal came in, as it now has, if this counts as valid!  Wish they had waited a week! 

PS:  Oh can't, it just hit my allocation today but very tempted to lay on a trade! 

PPS:  Alternatively, I might ride this and dump.  Cut debt last year but still 130% debt to equity and intangibles are £23bn versus equity of £3.5bn or half of total assets.  Even for their sector that's out of my comfort zone.  Just been looking at some asian pharmas with none of that baggage.

[janch]

I've just realised I didn't get the GSK divi because I didn't buy it in time.  Doh

[Harley]

46 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

hmm, strange that, i got my divi from them, was very small amount cos i dont hold a lot, but it definately came in on lloyds isa (rebadged halifax).

08 Apr 2021

GLAXOSMITHKLINE ORD GBP0.25

Yep, I've had mine on 08/04/21.  6% atm!

[CVG]

Luckily I had to add a few K of my new ISA allocation to GSK a week ago in order to rebalance it up. Buy low Sell high. Nearly every part of my portfolio gets rebalanced in April. I've also seen funds flowing into PM's following their recent falls.

[VeryMeanReversion]

Sold the last of my FTSE100 trackers I had today as the index touches 7000.

My cash/PMs/oil/mining/utilities/tobacco is now at 67% of my SIPP which I consider to be the boring/safest part of my portfolio.   The rest is a mix of investment trusts, retail, finance, transport.

When the BK hits, I think it will hit the US first (extreme overvaluation) then the UK will be hit afterwards to a much smaller extent (more sensible PE's here).   Best guess is that a large financial institution will be the usual trigger then it all cascades from there.  If FTSE then drops by half then so be it, I have a good cash pile ready to buy in when the time is right.

I've been listening to an audio book about the 1929 crash ("The Day the Bubble Burst") which has been the final push I needed to get prepared.  The similarities are very interesting regarding use of leverage and overoptimistic speculation.  The dominoes are all in place for a repeat.

Maybe there is more to run on this mini-boom but I've decided to reduce my risk, move to real(er) assets and wait.

The central banks seem to have forgotten that their job should be "reserve providers". Instead, they seem to want a planned economy.

 

 

[Harley]

In other news, something that made me smile.....

Colin versus Cuthbert as M&S declares caterpillar cake war on Aldi

£1.12 versus 80p per 100g

If I could, I'd love to do a taste test!

[jamtomorrow]

11 minutes ago, VeryMeanReversion said:

The central banks seem to have forgotten that their job should be "reserve providers". Instead, they seem to want a planned economy.

The fun really starts when populist politicians realize the opportunity for self-advancement inherent in demonizing/blaming unelected Central Bankers - I'm fully expecting we'll see a populist abolitionist movement.

[Harley]

16 minutes ago, VeryMeanReversion said:

Sold the last of my FTSE100 trackers I had today as the index touches 7000.

My cash/PMs/oil/mining/utilities/tobacco is now at 67% of my SIPP which I consider to be the boring/safest part of my portfolio.   The rest is a mix of investment trusts, retail, finance, transport.

When the BK hits, I think it will hit the US first (extreme overvaluation) then the UK will be hit afterwards to a much smaller extent (more sensible PE's here).   Best guess is that a large financial institution will be the usual trigger then it all cascades from there.  If FTSE then drops by half then so be it, I have a good cash pile ready now ready to buy in when the time is right.

I've been listening to an audio book about the 1929 crash ("The Day the Bubble Burst") which has been the final push I needed to get prepared.  The similarities are very interesting regarding use of leverage and overoptimistic speculation.  The dominoes are all in place for a repeat.

Maybe there is more to run on this mini-boom but I've decided to reduce my risk, move to real(er) assets and wait.

The central banks seem to have forgotten that their job should be "reserve providers". Instead, they seem to want a planned economy.

Right about the FTSE versus virtually anyone.  FTSE is more a value play but patchy when you get down to the individual companies.  I'm wondering if a BK could separate the East and West some more.  How are you holding the cash?

[Loki]

Thanks for those graphs @Cattle Prod, very interesting

[VeryMeanReversion]

3 minutes ago, Harley said:

Right about the FTSE versus virtually anyone.  FTSE is more a value play but patchy when you get down to the individual companies.  I'm wondering if a BK could separate the East and West some more.  How are you holding the cash?

Cash is split between Hargreaves Lansdown SIPP and Royal London deposit.

The BK will ruin those with the most leverage.  I guess that is the West but I don't know.

 

[DurhamBorn]

17 minutes ago, Harley said:

In other news, something that made me smile.....

Colin versus Cuthbert as M&S declares caterpillar cake war on Aldi

£1.12 versus 80p per 100g

If I could, I'd love to do a taste test!

Il stick to my homemade orange and lemon cake,costs around 80p and im getting damned good at it.

On GSK.Its had shit management since the Beechams merger,and i mean shit.However there is a great company underneath with lots of fat to cut.Elliot know this.Firstly they will want to stop Walmsley running the pharma side after the split,she has no experience and should run the consumer side.Next they will fancy both sides getting taken out in takeovers.The other option is load the debt onto the consumer part and then the pharma side will be easy to take over,probably for the present market cap on its own.

Id rather not see them taken over ,the company means a lot to me in many ways.Then again i think the split up then takeover value is £18+ a share,maybe £20+ ,government wont like it though.

[Harley]

On 12/04/2021 at 16:34, Harley said:

I've subbed to a few things in the past but nothing had much value for me except the more macro stuff and the sharing of thoughts and ideas.  DOSBODS is cheap. 

Well, you lot may be cheap but I decided to put down a wodge for a year of reading someone I have long, long liked.  You've gotta be flexible!  Always meant to do it but never got round to it.  Nice mix of macro and specifics (but more for examples and to help me keep an open mind).  I just have to be careful and respect the IP.  One of the last few of the old guard which is sad to see but then we have the likes of Lynn stepping up which is nice to see. 

[Harley]

24 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Il stick to my homemade orange and lemon cake,costs around 80p and im getting damned good at it.

On GSK.Its had shit management since the Beechams merger,and i mean shit.However there is a great company underneath with lots of fat to cut.Elliot know this.Firstly they will want to stop Walmsley running the pharma side after the split,she has no experience and should run the consumer side.Next they will fancy both sides getting taken out in takeovers.The other option is load the debt onto the consumer part and then the pharma side will be easy to take over,probably for the present market cap on its own.

Id rather not see them taken over ,the company means a lot to me in many ways.Then again i think the split up then takeover value is £18+ a share,maybe £20+ ,government wont like it though.

Apricot cake today from the bead maker.  Very nice!  How I like it, no sugar and more olive oil than butter!  I did some work for GSK on the retail stuff.  Liked the people, not the management stuff, and it felt a bit like my dad used to talk about Marconi.  Some real value there though.  Just may be better plays out there in the bigger world.  People really need to be thinking about looking wide and far these days.

PS: Recipe please?!

[Harley]

11 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

So gold finally is up decently today

Is it?  Only 1.8% in GBP?  Looks overbought on the daily but starting to turn on the weekly and monthlies but I recently got a likely fake buy signal on the monthly.  I'm wondering if for a good run we first need a sucker punch to shake out the final weak hands.  Select miners looking more interesting atm.

[Harley]

18 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

There may be another washout, f u oil 

I hope so.  The companies feel like they're stalling a bit, kind of stuck in the mud.  Need a bit of action to break them free and stop the prevailing narrative about them being an undervalued value play.  I'm looking to add but prices are a bit meew atm.