Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[BurntBread]

15 hours ago, jamtomorrow said:

I had a sniff around about a year ago along similar lines and came to the conclusion that supply side is pretty elastic, which means it's unlikely to do what we expect, say, oil to do i.e. hold high prices for long periods because supply is inelastic and laggy.

On the general subject of commodities, I was surprised from the video a page or two back, about renewables, how important zinc is to wind power. I'm not sure whether I read the colours correctly on the fleeting chart, though.

[sancho panza]

2 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

So K&S is up 24% in 3 days, some of my calls (which I bought for buttons) are up 500%. This is fun. Reward for holding through all the doom, gloom and anti-commodity consensus. Thanks to this thread for discussing potash especially @DurhamBornand @sancho panza (and @MvR for discussing options), wouldn't have occurred to me otherwise.

Only problem now is that it's already oversold on the dailies. Ah well, screw it, long term hold for me.

It's been a jounrey hasn't it?Biggest regret was selling not rolling/excercising Nutrien in Oct/Nov.

Some great resutlks this year and as you say kudos to @MvR for getting us back into it.

Have you started sizing any puts yet?I'm looking and see little value in the calls marekt here..Tempted by some qqq/xlk puts.Defo will wait for the stimulus induced Return of Spontaeous Circulation before putting them on though.

 

[JMD]

57 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Interesting perpsective CP. I hadn't thought of looking at it this way. It puts Bitcoin into perpsective. I thought it would be higher tbh

Yes, BTC is still small cap. But that is the reasoning behind the theory that institutional money - if/when it happens - will move the btc price far higher. Apparently US regulations were changed during last 2 years to enable hedgefunds/pensions to invest. However only small amounts have gone in so far.

As we are sort of on topic of figures, below is an example i like!! (declaration i own some; it was one of those 'assymetric trades' Raul Pal/TraderFerg talk about; and i was actually already looking to allocate small part of my portfolio into some risky speculative assets, unfortunately i couldn't find much choice, so half went into small-cap gold/silver miners in 2019, and half went into btc last autumn, timing was entirely fortuitous)

So just for a bit of fun... BTC future value (Speculative?/Highly Subjective?) example:

Gold market worth $13tn (assuming $2000/oz), but if in say 2030 price was $10,000/oz, market would be $70tn.                                          If BTC realised 20% of the future 2030 gold market cap, it would be worth $14tn. And 1btc would=$700,000 (14tn/20million coins)

Some commentators question 'why only' 20%, why not 40% or 60% (after all each btc can be divided into 100million bits or 'satoshis'), or maybe it just goes down to 0%!! Who knows. 

[nirvana]

7 hours ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

DXY hitting the skids again.....good for Oilies, maybe not so good for the Gold bugs? 

Looks like Mr Bear smelt that one coming too .......yeah yeah micro timescale so I doubt DaveH or @Errolwill be losing any sleep over it BUT interesting in an interconnected universe or how the big boys 'spike it up' then 'smash it down'.......rinse and repeat 

[Hancock]

Cant really add much to this thread, but as it was the sole reason to start putting money away in my pension this is what ive got and what % the share are up or down.

I no SIPP until about June 2017 think ive put circa £75K in and its now worth £105K. 

Been waiting on about £20k in invoices that will be dumped in there, should have had it prior to Xmas and the plan was to put it all in gold and silver.

Now im not sure to wait for a BK, and will hopefully have £50k to spend on it, as i can see things go onwards and upwards from here and their being no market crash ... as once people are out they'll be spending like drunken sailors.

Looks like quite a good selection to hold for the next 10 years .... but tempted to flog ITV as their product is crap, but presumably with people soon to be spending like no tomorrow advertising charges will go up.

[Hancock]

Oh and about £30k of that is in oilies, broken down as shown

[Hancock]

And until now i never knew i owned real estate. Will have to find out where and kick the rentier scum on the street now that I'm a landlord.

[nirvana]

China will be forced to devalue the Yuan Discuss

[nirvana]

4 minutes ago, Hancock said:

And until now i never knew i owned real estate. Will have to find out where and kick the rentier scum on the street now that I'm a landlord.

that don't make sense dude, the rentier capitalists are the ones causing all the problems 

Rentier capitalism is a term currently used to describe the belief in economic practices of monopolization of access to any kind of property and gaining significant amounts of profit without contribution to society.

[Hancock]

Just now, Cattle Prod said:

Looks not dissimilar to mine, Hancock, though you have more choice in your SIPP than I do! 

Im looking to move from AJ Bell to Interactive Investor to save on fees and they seem to have more selection.

I bought most my kids Junior Isa before the March crash, just added a couple of grand and that is now up 13%, which considering where we are is not too bad going.

I was more bothered about her ISA being down a few grand than being down 25k on my own SIPP

 

[Hancock]

6 minutes ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

that don't make sense dude, the rentier capitalists are the ones causing all the problems 

Rentier capitalism is a term currently used to describe the belief in economic practices of monopolization of access to any kind of property and gaining significant amounts of profit without contribution to society.

Note a tad of jealousy in there towards my 0.01% (£106) worth of real estate. Do you think it's a full brick or just half?

[nirvana]

7 hours ago, Barnsey said:

Albert Edwards calling for a deflationary bust due to spread of new strain in US

the penny has just dropped, soz I'm a bit slow today  

Edwards is like a broken clock, he was calling for a deflationary bust due to Yuan deflation in 2015.....is he still calling for one?

quote

Edwards, of the bank Société Générale, argues that as well as creating a challenge for China’s Asian rivals, by making its exports more competitive, a cheaper yuan will send “a tidal wave of deflation” breaking over the world economy.

 

[Hardhat]

28 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Cant really add much to this thread, but as it was the sole reason to start putting money away in my pension this is what ive got and what % the share are up or down.

I no SIPP until about June 2017 think ive put circa £75K in and its now worth £105K. 

Been waiting on about £20k in invoices that will be dumped in there, should have had it prior to Xmas and the plan was to put it all in gold and silver.

Now im not sure to wait for a BK, and will hopefully have £50k to spend on it, as i can see things go onwards and upwards from here and their being no market crash ... as once people are out they'll be spending like drunken sailors.

Looks like quite a good selection to hold for the next 10 years .... but tempted to flog ITV as their product is crap, but presumably with people soon to be spending like no tomorrow advertising charges will go up.

When did you open those positions in Siemens out of interest?

[geordie_lurch]

Today looks to my untrained eye like one of the best gains for a while in terms of a lot of the stocks we have all discussed - K & S AG is currently up  8.14% today Is it the start of the melt up of just others finally seeing value in the stocks those in this thread have been discussing for months?

From the Telegraph just now...

Quote

The FTSE 100 is continuing to soar, up about 3.5pc currently.

There’s a combination of factors driving the blue-chip index upwards, including US stimulus hopes as the Democrats turn Georgia blue to take control of the Senate, oil majors being boosted by Opec’s output cut, and and materials firms being lifted by stronger commodity prices.

 

[nirvana]

3 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Note a tad of jealousy in there towards my 0.01% (£106) worth of real estate. Do you think it's a full brick or just half?

not at all fella, keep it up! methinks you meant to say 'renter scum' but ironically you said 'rentier scum'........I empathize with the 'renter scum' but during the next revolution all the 'rentier scum' will have their heads chopped off at the guillotine 

[Hancock]

1 minute ago, Hardhat said:

When did you open those positions in Siemens out of interest?

At around the bottom of the crash in March.

I bought about £1300 of plain old Siemens then they split the shares so i got the Siemens energy but i only have about £325 of the latter .. never knew theyd shot up so much until now.

 

[Hancock]

3 minutes ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

not at all fella, keep it up! methinks you meant to say 'renter scum' but ironically you said 'rentier scum'.

Force of habit.

[nirvana]

4 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

Is the melt up???

yes, it was foretold in the stars last year.....Powell and Papa Buffet saw it coming......amongst others

 

 

 

[Yadda yadda yadda]

1 hour ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

China will be forced to devalue the Yuan Discuss

How they gonna buy coal and tings if they keep devaluing?

[janch]

Money rotating out of bonds and some of it is finding its way into our reflation/value stocks:

[nirvana]

There's this trader who calls people cunts all the time...well more their behaviour....

Today I am confessing to being a cunt. Why? Cos I held onto a dog called Great Panther Mining.....maybe I liked the sound of the name......OCD you're a cunt!

I haven't lost much money on it BUT I could have had that money in something more profitable......and maybe it's a reminder not to invest in 'penny share shite' 

OK confession over, onwards and upwards 

[The Idiocrat]

3 hours ago, sancho panza said:

There's not much value left,we're loaded up with oilies too.

Worth looking at Vodafone though,

Decl:already long,likely going to pick up some more today.

Thanks for that. Yes, I'm a bit underweight in telecoms and might add some more VOD and/or TEF. Added some more Exxon today- got plenty of BP/RDSB/REP but thought a pure old school oil play with no diversion of renewables might be an idea - slight concern BP/Shell will throw the baby out with the bathoil in their moves to go green. I still like the idea of investing in uranium miners and am looking into those but not sure there's short/medium term value without more nuclear plants being actually in construction rather than planned, and the realisation from governments around the world that renewables won't provide enough and nuclear is in many ways cleaner if you take into account how much shit has to be created from mining rare earth metals, etc.

[nirvana]

10 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

How they gonna buy coal and tings if they keep devaluing?

Actually I don't give a shit anymore.......I'm trying to flush out my demons again I suppose

I used to get triggered by these economists who think they can predict the future but I'm trying to be more like the young uns nowadays, shrug my shoulders, say meh and let the trading do the talking....some of us are trying to be too smart for our own good sometimes 

PS gold dumping, I smelt it again 

 

[janch]

3 minutes ago, The Idiocrat said:

I'm a bit underweight in telecoms and might add some more VOD

Well they're all putting up their prices by around 3% which is no surprise to any of us on here.  Is this the start of some serious inflation?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-55529291

[nirvana]

oh dear......another valuable lesson 'hate the fed but don't fight the fed....or the ticker'

yes I know it's had a good run but highlights how fickle 'Mr Market' can be and things can turn very quickly.....