Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[DurhamBorn]

53 minutes ago, Bricormortis said:

My assumption right or wrong is that if DXY goes low, dollars start getting exchanged for assets, particularly hard assets.

Its more others go higher than the dollar falls.If your currency goes up against the currency most assets like commods are priced in you can buy more of them and so you do while you can.Thats why commods tend to run up when the "dollar falls",its actually because other currencies are going up.

[Starsend]

3 hours ago, Don Coglione said:

Held since April 2020.

I couldn't get married charts, as I am a dunce, but in answer to your question:

Thanks. That does look like it's more or less tracked the price. Close enough for me anyway.

[Starsend]

5 hours ago, Harley said:

They should have tracking data on their website or other sites should.  The problem with the Wisdom Tree ones (the only ones here in Europe?) is how thinly traded they can be so the charts are a bit empty of data.  Regarding which index to follow, there are discussions on the web and the last conclusion was the Bloomberg index had performed (and would continue to) the best.  My choice would be equity in producers and options on the commodity itself.  I did regularly track all the Wisdom Tree stuff, but once looked away and by the time I returned they had hit the roof.  A classic case of right idea, wrong timing.  Lesson learnt, again!  Good things never happen fast enough.

PS: Note the Wisdom Tree ETFs do the individual commodities but also various sub totals too (like grains and then agriculture and then all).  Yes, maybe better results at a higher level of summation, say for a general SIPP holding which is what I'm thinking of, post a pull back, to go into my hard asset portfolio allocation.  But mainly equities and their divs.

There does seem to be a rather limited range if you want something that tracks the price of corn or coffee or crude, seems Wisdom Tree are the main ones available to us.

There's a few that track the Bloomberg Commodity index. I looked at them a while ago and decided on the etf from Invesco. Think it had the lowest annual fees.

I'm looking at options right now but really need to do some work to figure out the best way to make use of them in an overall investment strategy. Can be quite difficult to keep long term investing and trading separate, they tend to overlap a lot.

[Starsend]

6 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

On oil and gas,the most likely outcome is nature based solutions.I expect the east will go down this route once the west gets itself in a mess.There is an environmental crisis in the fact we are seeing mass species and animal loss.The renewables stitch up is miss-allocating capital and doing nothing for that.

BP is ahead of the game on this.Oil use will be only around 8% less by 2050 than today on my roadmap and gas use will be at least treble.

Of course those numbers could be slightly lower if prices spike higher than i expect.

Politicians will be in a corner soon enough and will realise they are stuck and nature based solutions are their ticket out of it.

What would you say is the best way to get exposure to natural gas DB? Through something like Gazprom? Wisdom tree also do a natural gas etf.

[Starsend]

Anybody have any thoughts as to when BP and Shell reinstate their dividends back to their previous levels - if indeed they do!

I know a lot of you bought them cheap but I actually have big tranches that I bought pre-covid when shell was £22  Bought more since then bringing the average price down but the price for BP/Shell isn't going to substantially rise until they get the dividends back to where they were.

[Starsend]

3 hours ago, PrincessDrac said:

Fingers crossed. I'm watching the miners.

Oddly recently. First HOC fell out of love. Castillo winning office apparently. Next up FRES falling out of love. Leaving the main MSCI UK index. Then yesterday CEY. Some analyst re pricing CEY at 82p the same day a positive RNS was released.

So we have all three on their asses prior to Basell 3.

Coincidence or manipulation.

Next week it'll be POLY turn. Putin turns on miners and watch it fall.

Still great prices to average in.

Fres still sub 9. That'll be 13 by August.

CEY under 110p. Not a bad entry price.

For me FRES will stretch it's legs, big potential there.

I just got an EXTRA JUICY dividend from polymetal. Underwater on HOC though thanks to that bloody commie.

[Lightscribe]

[Lightscribe]

5 hours ago, PrincessDrac said:

Fingers crossed. I'm watching the miners.

Oddly recently. First HOC fell out of love. Castillo winning office apparently. Next up FRES falling out of love. Leaving the main MSCI UK index. Then yesterday CEY. Some analyst re pricing CEY at 82p the same day a positive RNS was released.

So we have all three on their asses prior to Basell 3.

Coincidence or manipulation.

Next week it'll be POLY turn. Putin turns on miners and watch it fall.

Still great prices to average in.

Fres still sub 9. That'll be 13 by August.

CEY under 110p. Not a bad entry price.

For me FRES will stretch it's legs, big potential there.

Yup I’m strapped in with some of my largest allocations in FRES (average approx 800 there), CEY, POLY, HMY, ABX, and GDX/GDXJ. 

[DurhamBorn]

2 hours ago, Starsend said:

What would you say is the best way to get exposure to natural gas DB? Through something like Gazprom? Wisdom tree also do a natural gas etf.

I like the big oilies,Repsol and ENI mainly for gas,i think a 4x and 3x including divs is likely over the cycle minimum on those,iv got a few smaller players that have done very well,but are also very risky.

[Harley]

3 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I like the big oilies,Repsol and ENI mainly for gas,i think a 4x and 3x including divs is likely over the cycle minimum on those,iv got a few smaller players that have done very well,but are also very risky.

While I've done OK, but should have put more down, I've been surprised and disappointed by Woodside Petroleum (WPL) on the Sydney exchange.

[Castlevania]

7 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I like the big oilies,Repsol and ENI mainly for gas,i think a 4x and 3x including divs is likely over the cycle minimum on those,iv got a few smaller players that have done very well,but are also very risky.

Yeah I like both of them. Only problem is withholding taxes on dividends. Repsol has fortunately been paying in shares the past year or so, but are restricted to do that indefinitely.

[Stinky Wizzleteats]

Biden's $6 trillion budget doesn't bode well for keeping inflation under control, does it?

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Castlevania said:

Yeah I like both of them. Only problem is withholding taxes on dividends. Repsol has fortunately been paying in shares the past year or so, but are restricted to do that indefinitely.

Yes it its pain,given US and Brazil you dont pay any.I try not to,but i have tended to sell stocks that attract it when they run up.To buy Telefonica Brazil and TIM i sold Telia and Cargotech, for instance.The US is great if you hold in a SIPP,but of course very litte value there at the moment.

[DurhamBorn]

5 hours ago, Harley said:

While I've done OK, but should have put more down, I've been surprised and disappointed by Woodside Petroleum (WPL) on the Sydney exchange.

The sector hasnt performed well since the crash mainly due to woke sentiment.I wish id bought more potash for instance instead of big oil,trebles and more there ,25% on BP,though Repsol is 60%.DRAX and Royal Mail treble and more and many many more examples.The two sectors i think where the undervaluation is structural,energy and telcos have actually been poor performers relative since the crash,though some shine through like BT up 65%.

Things will go where they are going in their own time,and one good thing is that some of the huge gains has meant you can rotate into other areas.We are always learning arent we and one certain part of this game is we will never get everything right.

[UnconventionalWisdom]

18 hours ago, janch said:

It would help me if they could give me some more dosh to invest with

I like getting 1k a year from them for my lifetime isa. 

[ThoughtCriminal]

 

[23rdian]

2 hours ago, UnconventionalWisdom said:

I like getting 1k a year from them for my lifetime isa. 

Does anyone know if you can convert a cash LISA to S&S after you are 40? I know you can only start one before 40. I am guessing not.

[Democorruptcy]

On 28/05/2021 at 08:11, Cattle Prod said:

Notable that to opt out you have to fill out a paper form and physically bring it to your GP, rather than doing it online. I can almost see the scumbag behavioural psychologists telling Mancock to do this "increase the hassle factor and most people won't bother".

In theory you can opt out online here https://www.nhs.uk/your-nhs-data-matters/manage-your-choice/ however there are caveats attached on the previous pages

[Errol]

1 hour ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

 

This is why Russian foreign exchange reserves have reached record levels:

 

Russia’s foreign exchange reserves reach record $600 billion

https://www.rt.com/business/525019-russia-forex-reserves-record-high/

[janch]

2 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

 

That's hilarious I wonder if Biden knows.........especially as he is so anti the nord stream pipeline.  If it's OK for the US then he can't really complain about Germany wanting gas from Russia.

Putin must be a very happy man with no debt and increasing his reserves too.

[M S E Refugee]

31 minutes ago, Errol said:

This is why Russian foreign exchange reserves have reached record levels:

 

Russia’s foreign exchange reserves reach record $600 billion

https://www.rt.com/business/525019-russia-forex-reserves-record-high/

Russia is my favourite place to invest at the moment, they won't entertain any of the Woke insanity that we have to put up with.

[janch]

20 hours ago, PrincessDrac said:

Oddly recently. First HOC fell out of love. Castillo winning office apparently. Next up FRES falling out of love. Leaving the main MSCI UK index. Then yesterday CEY. Some analyst re pricing CEY at 82p the same day a positive RNS was released.

Centamin was really doing nicely then it suddenly fell on Thursday.  The only thing I could find was this:

the Batie West project in Burkina Faso fell short of the gold miner’s investment criteria and so Centamin will carry out a review into third-party development options.

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/950883/proactive-weekly-mining-round-up-centamin-polymetal-international-eurasia-mining-950883.htm

I'm not entirely sure what it means but is obviously bad news.  

It's typical that the miners I hold are FRES, HOC and CEY and they are all not doing well at the moment.  I do have GDGB which is better so far

[ThoughtCriminal]

1 hour ago, Errol said:

This is why Russian foreign exchange reserves have reached record levels:

 

Russia’s foreign exchange reserves reach record $600 billion

https://www.rt.com/business/525019-russia-forex-reserves-record-high/

Yeah, lots of interesting things going on when you look behind the geopolitical theatre the MSM push. 

[Clueless Imbecile]

Got a huge dilemma....

I've got 3 problems:

1) Tired of worrying about being left behind by rising house prices, and seeing apparently endless government support driving them up faster than my salary. (Or flip that around: I'm tired of working for a very slowly rising amount of a raplidly devaluing currency; it's the same difference!). Waiting for a HPC seems to be a losing strategy in England. I don't fancy emigrating.

2) Tired of worrying about passive vs active investment, big kahuna bust & bear market, bail-ins, financial repression, woke mob trying to destroy oil companies, counter-party risk, etc, etc.

3) Tired of struggling in my career. Got made redundant from a long term job 4 years ago. Had 3 new jobs since then and found all of them quite stressful. Ended up leaving the first 2 because I was taking too long to complete tasks (not lazy, just really struggled). Been in current job about 9 months. Work seemed extremely difficult for first 6 or 7 months, since then very difficult. Had hoped it would have got easier by now. Done a lot of studying over past 12 months to improve my skills, but that only helps so much. Not sure how much longer I can tollerate the pressure before suffering burnout (maybe a few more weeks or months).

 

I'm worried that if I go off sick with stress (private sector, no sick pay) or get sacked for slow performance, I would then end up burning through savings on basic living costs. Having savings has prevented me from getting any benefits in the past when I've been out of work. Feel like a mug when I read about people who don't work/didn't save getting loads of benefit money from the state. I doubt they suffer the stress that I've suffered over the past few years.

I'm thinking maybe I should buy a house and then it solves problems 1) & 2). Also, if I had a house and no savings, I might be eligible for benefits if I end up out of work (for whatever reason, except maybe quitting voluntarily).

Does anyone know if a single, childless, home-owning man (with little or no savings) would get benefits if out of work?

I'm approaching 50 so not young but still a long way from retirement. I could hold on and keep working for another year or two maybe, but probably not another fifteen years, unless it was in a much easier job.

Currently living cheaply with elderly parents. At current rate of outgoings I could last a long time on my savings (several years at least), but it's taken over 20 years to accumulate them and would be a shame to lose them all on basic living costs, particularly whilst I hear that people who never bothered to save get loads of benefits from the state.

My job is very good technical experience (an opportunity I've waited many years for), the salary is pretty good (40K ish) and the people I work with are great. However, I'm finding the work very tough, and every day is a struggle. Beginning to wonder how much longer I can tollerate the pressure before suffering burnout.

Cheers,
Clueless Imbecile

Disclaimer: I am not an expert. Anything I post here is just my opinions, which may not be factually correct. My posts are intended purely for the purpose of debate and are not to be taken as advice. If you act on any of the above then you do so entirely at your own risk. I do not accept any liability.

[Castlevania]

27 minutes ago, Clueless Imbecile said:

Got a huge dilemma....

I've got 3 problems:

1) Tired of worrying about being left behind by rising house prices, and seeing apparently endless government support driving them up faster than my salary. (Or flip that around: I'm tired of working for a very slowly rising amount of a raplidly devaluing currency; it's the same difference!). Waiting for a HPC seems to be a losing strategy in England. I don't fancy emigrating.

2) Tired of worrying about passive vs active investment, big kahuna bust & bear market, bail-ins, financial repression, woke mob trying to destroy oil companies, counter-party risk, etc, etc.

3) Tired of struggling in my career. Got made redundant from a long term job 4 years ago. Had 3 new jobs since then and found all of them quite stressful. Ended up leaving the first 2 because I was taking too long to complete tasks (not lazy, just really struggled). Been in current job about 9 months. Work seemed extremely difficult for first 6 or 7 months, since then very difficult. Had hoped it would have got easier by now. Done a lot of studying over past 12 months to improve my skills, but that only helps so much. Not sure how much longer I can tollerate the pressure before suffering burnout (maybe a few more weeks or months).

 

I'm worried that if I go off sick with stress (private sector, no sick pay) or get sacked for slow performance, I would then end up burning through savings on basic living costs. Having savings has prevented me from getting any benefits in the past when I've been out of work. Feel like a mug when I read about people who don't work/didn't save getting loads of benefit money from the state. I doubt they suffer the stress that I've suffered over the past few years.

I'm thinking maybe I should buy a house and then it solves problems 1) & 2). Also, if I had a house and no savings, I might be eligible for benefits if I end up out of work (for whatever reason, except maybe quitting voluntarily).

Does anyone know if a single, childless, home-owning man (with little or no savings) would get benefits if out of work?

I'm approaching 50 so not young but still a long way from retirement. I could hold on and keep working for another year or two maybe, but probably not another fifteen years, unless it was in a much easier job.

Currently living cheaply with elderly parents. At current rate of outgoings I could last a long time on my savings (several years at least), but it's taken over 20 years to accumulate them and would be a shame to lose them all on basic living costs, particularly whilst I hear that people who never bothered to save get loads of benefits from the state.

My job is very good technical experience (an opportunity I've waited many years for), the salary is pretty good (40K ish) and the people I work with are great. However, I'm finding the work very tough, and every day is a struggle. Beginning to wonder how much longer I can tollerate the pressure before suffering burnout.

Cheers,
Clueless Imbecile

Disclaimer: I am not an expert. Anything I post here is just my opinions, which may not be factually correct. My posts are intended purely for the purpose of debate and are not to be taken as advice. If you act on any of the above then you do so entirely at your own risk. I do not accept any liability.

Only you will know what’s correct for you. However, the benefits system is only generous if you have children, if you’re single then you’ll get ~£75 a week JSA. Which really isn’t much. Do you have any hobbies? Are they expensive? Can they be done if the weather is bad outside? Life on benefits is for most people miserable, because whilst you have time you don’t have the money to regularly partake in the things that you enjoy doing. It’s easy to end up worrying about money. It’s not a life I’d recommend.