Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Loki]

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/exclusive-china-bars-banks-from-selling-commodities-linked-products-to-retail-buyers-0

[ThoughtCriminal]

Nice list from Lyn Alden showing which countries sold the family silverware for one more dose of crack. 

 

Spoiler alert: we're sucking off sailors at the docks 

[MrXxxx]

4 hours ago, Option5 said:

I bought a Trombone cleaning brush for cleaning out the drain holes. Really simple and effective.

£8.99 off Amazon.

Errrm this is Dosbods, how dare you talk about such exuberance!

[MrXxxx]

1 hour ago, Hancock said:

 

You can also use coathangers for DIY abortions if you've a bottle of gin handy ... another DOSBODS money saving tip for y'all!

That describes the Peugeot I had before the MX5 well...what a dog!

[DurhamBorn]

Capital goods orders gone to record highs in the US.Oil will follow this up with a lag.The woke stuff is just noise.I expect the shrewdies are building huge positions in energy.I just hope BP get their fingers out and have started buying back shares while they still can.Shell is oily i will be selling when it runs up,il hold the rest for the cycle.

[sancho panza]

1 hour ago, Cattle Prod said:

It increased by 7.5% today, has been flat/consolidating for the last two months. It doesn't really need to increase furtger though, just stay there. With a $5 backwardation over 12 months, you are incentivised to pull oil out of inventory (oil is worth $5 more now than in a years time, plus storage costs). As the same time you can't hedge production (youd lock in prices $5 below what you're getting now, so much less commercial hedging pinning prices down).

Backwardation started 24 Nov 20 on my chart (CL1 - CLM2022).

When you say it like that,it seems so obvious CP.

even though WTI is at $66 does backwardation have an effect on exploration or is that always linked to the oil price?I ask because obviously a decent ish oil price would mean drilling but if backwardation is implying it's not worht the bother then some of the drilling might stop.

Sorry if that seesm like a stiupid question .I know before you've said the shale treadmill is hyper sensistive to the oil price because new wells need drilling all the time,but i realsie a lot of other wells operate on longer timeliens.

[nirvana]

9 hours ago, Loki said:

I bought more RDSB today FWIW

I might be tempted at 1250.....the momo ain't with it at the mo  I appear to go through certain phases when I'm gambling, currently dealing with a 'momentum is important' mindset 

Interesting WTI at 67....dare I go short at this level? 

Dave must be shorting his knickers off, he said 55 was incoming 

[Stinky Wizzleteats]

Japan launching a block chain based stock exchange next year

https://www.coindesk.com/japan-to-have-blockchain-based-stock-exchange-in-2022?utm_source=tldrnewsletter

Will this prevent naked shorting and make this a fairer way to trade for us plebs?

[Fully Detached]

10 hours ago, sancho panza said:

you got a link for that FD?

Sure:

NHS Digital

This one might also be of some interest - it's a very amateur looking site that claims to be run by a GP - I certainly can't vouch for it, but might give some more info that interested people can verify with more official sources:

The National Data Opt Out 

[ThoughtCriminal]

10 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

BP actually got rid of their exploration department, Equinor is doing the same, thereby guaranteeing they won't be able to join in when needed. 

So they're doing no exploration. At all? 

 

Not even outsourced it?

 

That seems like utter madness to my laymans brain. 

 

Do you think there's any chance that we see an oil shortage in a few years time that instead of being "Well this is a great way to make money" turns into "Well this is fucking catastrophic"?? 

[nirvana]

28 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

what the implications of the reverse repo spike are?

yeah fuckin disaster  I tell you one thing, spikes are there to be sold! You buy the dips and you sell the rips! 

So errr, apart from me being a knob, try this

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-demand-for-feds-reverse-repo-facility-is-surging-again-11621904689

[nirvana]

13 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

I don't need to know why it's surging, I need to know what the implications are on Fed policy.

I'm not sure anyone knows......how about this I picked up on twitter?

the fed is buying bonds from the dealers
The dealer then buys the bonds back from fed at a higher price later on
This helps control rates and artificially keeps them subdued*
OR it could be that
the FED is selling "bonds" to the "banks" and then buying the bonds back later (and in this case for the same price)

*I think it's likely they're doing this, but that's probs my biased view cos as you're probs aware now, i realise they're a bunch of cunts 

to add.....this is uncharted waters! One guy says WE'RE SITTING ON A FUCKING TIME BOMB!!

YEE HAH WAY TO GO FED!!!! KNOBHEADS!!!!

[Fully Detached]

23 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Notable that to opt out you have to fill out a paper form and physically bring it to your GP, rather than doing it online. I can almost see the scumbag behavioural psychologists telling Mancock to do this "increase the hassle factor and most people won't bother".

Oh indeed - although our surgery was happy to do it via telephone. Only problem is they were a bit non-committal over how they would confirm it had been done, so perhaps I had better do the form just to be on the safe side, at least that way I can have some proof.

It's been very interesting watching Mrs Detached react to this. Over the course of the covid reaction she has occasionally but temporarily agreed that we are not being told the truth and that there is clearly some agenda afoot - before reverting to calling me a conspiracy theorist and refusing to accept that our government would do anything that was not for the benefit of its citizens.

She's a little stumped on this one, helped by the fact that none of her friends knew anything about it and are equally horrified.

[Barnsey]

 

[DurhamBorn]

34 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Can anyone explain to me, like I'm 5 years old, what the implications of the reverse repo spike are? I get that it's a sign of exceess liquidity, but could it force the Fed to taper, like now?! They have to at least acknowledge it at their next meeting. Which will probably crash everything...

Banks have too much liquidity and are really struggling to find assets to get a positive return so are handing back the cash in exchange to the Fed for treasuries.

The banks are struggling to lend it.The reason is likely lack of collateral,ie not enough solvent entities to soak up all that liquidity in loans.The banks are swapping cash for treasuries.

Treasuries already on the Feds balance sheet.

Market is flooded with cash but not enough solvent entities to lend it to or invest it in.Governments need to increase spending and will.Private sector is saying we cant make a return big enough for the risk.

 

[nirvana]

41 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

the massive flows of liquidity that are now bouncing off the walls

ooh quelle surprise, we didn't see that one coming did we?  sounds like me when I've had too much dope....dopeheads r us anyone? 

This repo thing then, is it the sort of catalyst that could suddenly trigger a BK like next week??? 

add: remember what happened in 2008? a big bank got in trouble......look out for this again or some gamblers in a hedge fund going 'too deep' (that's balls deep) and not being able to cover...like maybe margin calls incoming 

[Loki]

1 minute ago, nirvana said:

This repo thing then, is it the sort of catalyst that could suddenly trigger a BK like next week?

On that note i can remember @DurhamBorn voicing some concern that that DXY was still around 90 some time ago and it's still there.  

Apologies if i mention it often but i keep an eye on it as it's one of the few indicators that i understand

[nirvana]

4 minutes ago, Loki said:

Apologies if i mention it often but i keep an eye on it as it's one of the few indicators that i understand

Lehman Bros dude, city of London, I was there! Tapping away on a computer that would later set the foundations for an event never to be forgotten in history! #hackersrus .......joking but it would make a good movie with me shagging some fit birds on a yacht, anyway soz what was I gonna say?

err I think the dollar moves will be a secondary reaction to any BK, yes there'll be a rush to safety, DXY will be spiking up, they'll dump the total shite that is sterling and yuro YMMV

[DoINeedOne]

I do like Australians 

 

[Loki]

6 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

I do like Australians 

 

Oh yes

[nirvana]

16 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

I do like Australians

I think you're all being unfair to her actually, she's been made into a pawn and monetized by her parents to the tune of millions....

from that interview 'you arrive in caravans of private cars that choke suburban roads'

'unprecendented quality of life' yeah by being a fat consumer rsole 

that's the parents fault, like it always is! Unless your own kids are totally perfect these cunts should probably kick the cheap jokes at the expense of an amazing planet! Don't forget you are amazing!  Actually you're not but the fookin planet is......or it was 

[Agent ZigZag]

10 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Shell is oily i will be selling when it runs up,il hold the rest for the cycle.

If I have read this correctly you intend to liquidate all of your Shell holdings? Is it because of the poor yield it returns. I was pondering this question a while back. Whilst growth is very nice I am more concerned in developing a portfolio that gives me a healthy yield. I get more divi returns from say BAT in which I hold less capital when measured against my Shell holding.

[nirvana]

soz I'm waffling a bit today, so I'll shut up after this one lol

BUT there are certain things in 'the market' that 'smell danger' or I'm sure it used to be like that

BTC or buttcoin if you like, is having a bit of a tantrum again...dunno if this indicative of a bit of trouble or just the 'big boys' playing games again......TWT

[Boglet]

7 minutes ago, nirvana said:

soz I'm waffling a bit today, so I'll shut up after this one lol

BUT there are certain things in 'the market' that 'smell danger' or I'm sure it used to be like that

BTC or buttcoin if you like, is having a bit of a tantrum again...dunno if this indicative of a bit of trouble or just the 'big boys' playing games again......TWT

Just shaking out the last bit of weak hand retail money.

[ThoughtCriminal]

28 minutes ago, nirvana said:

soz I'm waffling a bit today, so I'll shut up after this one lol

BUT there are certain things in 'the market' that 'smell danger' or I'm sure it used to be like that

BTC or buttcoin if you like, is having a bit of a tantrum again...dunno if this indicative of a bit of trouble or just the 'big boys' playing games again......TWT

Almost halved in a month.