Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Loki]

2 minutes ago, Heart's Ease said:

There will always be the Mighty Panther.

Now Reddit compatible 

[DurhamBorn]

9 minutes ago, planit said:

Alongside the cuts they proclaim "Universal energy access" in 2030.

 

That is incredible, I bet all the people without power in Africa and India will be really happy to have access to cheap energy by then.

 

It also means none of the sums add up. Again, irresponsible privileged telling the poor they can't have access to cheap energy.

I want to ask them whether they would burn coal to stop their family freezing to death or starving.

Energy = Life

Like iv said my roadmap on gas smashes all their forecasts by Indians getting a fridge.Thats all.A fridge.Indians.Not anyone else in Africa,or Asia,or any other product.Just a fridge.My roadmap is much more likely to be right and theirs wrong.Energy stocks are now in an 8 year structural bull market and any pullbacks should be bought for anyone not allocated IMO.

[DurhamBorn]

5 minutes ago, Heart's Ease said:

There will always be the Mighty Panther.

These are my silver miners,guess the one that is the Mighty Panther 

[Lightscribe]

2 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

These are my silver miners,guess the one that is the Mighty Panther 

All of them. 

 

[JMD]

3 hours ago, Harley said:

I saw shale as a short adrenaline shot back then and I don't even pretend to be clever. 

Funny you should say that. I always personally remind myself that Mathew Syed (a Journo, and has written some interesting books) who i do like and is a very intelligent guy, but he always raved about US shale and he was wrong, so always find that a sobering thought .

[planit]

There is loads of shale that is economic at $200 .

The difference now is they (the Climate crowd) will not let banks lend to develop it, they won't let oil companies develop anything, they are now trying to make the oil companies pay for all the past global warming. It's insane.

As oil goes from $70 -> $100 -> $150 -> $200 I assume they will keep shouting

Once oil starts going from 

$200 -> $300 -> $400+ I assume something breaks, either everyone's economy or people starving or they shut up and start trying to get more oil as quick as possible. Perhaps a combination of all three.

A spike might go up and then straight down but it certainly fits the criteria for the BK that is talked about here.

 

Anyone got a prediction when the markets will realise there is going to be a supply pinch?

My guess - If the pinch is in 2 years time then it will be when projections forwards can see it, perhaps Nov/Dec this year or Q1 next year if it takes a while longer for travel to get going worldwide.

[DurhamBorn]

4 minutes ago, planit said:

There is loads of shale that is economic at $200 .

The difference now is they (the Climate crowd) will not let banks lend to develop it, they won't let oil companies develop anything, they are now trying to make the oil companies pay for all the past global warming. It's insane.

As oil goes from $70 -> $100 -> $150 -> $200 I assume they will keep shouting

Once oil starts going from 

$200 -> $300 -> $400+ I assume something breaks, either everyone's economy or people starving or they shut up and start trying to get more oil as quick as possible. Perhaps a combination of all three.

A spike might go up and then straight down but it certainly fits the criteria for the BK that is talked about here.

 

Anyone got a prediction when the markets will realise there is going to be a supply pinch?

My guess - If the pinch is in 2 years time then it will be when projections forwards can see it, perhaps Nov/Dec this year or Q1 next year if it takes a while longer for travel to get going worldwide.

For gas i see the price starting to run hard from 2023.

[Lightscribe]

4 hours ago, Harley said:

Yep, a wrench but pretty much sums up the extent of my fears.  Maybe I can sell mine as a turnkey operation to some townie and move to a mini version of those ex hedge funders' Carribbean gaffs, the ones with the beach at the bottom of the beautiful garden.  I'm getting old enough to sit it out in such a place.  Should have bought back in the day when on me travels.

 

 

There’s still the Pitcairn Islands! They used to be the descendants of incestuous pirate cannibals but don’t let that put you off.

Plus points

* Population 47

* You can apply for settlement on a British passport

* Proof of just $30k NZ dollars required with a view to building a residence on the island and $500 settlement charge

* Free leasehold land

* Warm weather

Bad points

* Don’t think the local talent or conversation may be up to much.

* May get eaten or have to deal with unwanted advances from pirate cannibals.

http://www.immigration.gov.pn/faq/index.html

[Loki]

5 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

Don’t think the local talent or conversation may be up to much.

Only one way to change that...

[BWW]

1 hour ago, Lightscribe said:

I love these articles. Yes house prices to increase forever, only not with 5 year backlogs in unmortgageable flats with fire certificates and cladding backlogs. First time buyers priced out and flatlined demand in city centres as well as the 2.5million BTL boomer demographic dying out. 

That’s not even taking into a account Inflation and the rising cost of living and servicing costs with wages not increasing at the same rate. 

Then finally we get to the real crux of the matter, of interest rates rising and banks limiting lending only to the strictest requirements.

But yes I suppose it sells newspapers (or ad revenue clicks nowadays)

Gov has power to make those flats saleable even if at a lower price. The fire certs and cladding problem is wank. The problem is the unlimited service charges according to whatever idiocy the freehold owner wants to spin to create a nice little earner. Currently fire watchers in such buildings are $$$. But it's the general principle of a blank cheque for freeholder if you buy such a flat.

I would buy one for cash for half the new price tomorrow [I assume some fire sale prices are available] if they just changed the law to control the service charge and sometimes ground rent to a reasonable level by law. Won't hold my breath though and will continue with the stocks investment until the freehold in the location I want is half starting price. So far stocks are rising a lot, houses are dropping a little. One year I'd say I'm 1/3 up [stock values vs average freehold price for postcode], original plan was 3-5 years to get 100%.

[Loki]

The DXY is not going down without a fight it seems

[BurntBread]

5 hours ago, Barnsey said:

Commodities buying opportunity approaching if ROW can't offset China's credit impulse diving?

 

Barnsey, that really sounds like the economic cracks are starting to yawn wide open in southern China. A government whose only responsibility is to keep employment up, and factories are not simply increasing prices, but refusing to produce as they're loss-making at those levels of input cost, and so are sending the shift workers home. China's response being price-controls like they have rediscovered their communist roots. I think the "great leap forward" also centred around keeping steel production up without any economic rationale?

[nirvana]

still have the shite in my watchlist for some strange reason....must be so I can go there for a smile 

 

[nirvana]

31 minutes ago, Loki said:

The DXY is not going down without a fight it seems

this one is though, you shoulda kept yer gob shut 

 

[Loki]

3 minutes ago, nirvana said:

this one is though, you shoulda kept yer gob shut 

 

T-minus 9 years or so until I will be concerned 

They're paying me a divi just to watch numbers move around for now...suits me

"Ignore the noise"!

[nirvana]

2 minutes ago, Loki said:

"Ignore the noise"!

I love the smell of noise and BRRRRR whilst I'm supping my coffee first thing 

[Bobthebuilder]

21 minutes ago, nirvana said:

still have the shite in my watchlist for some strange reason....must be so I can go there for a smile 

 

I have done ok with this in the past. 50 cents and a buy I reckon.

[Loki]

 

[MrXxxx]

On 25/05/2021 at 11:40, DurhamBorn said:

Lots of trackers buying who sold when they left the FTSE and are about to re-enter.

And therein lies the problem with passive etf indexes, not an issue when the cycle is stable but when its volatile a double whammy, spreads and trading fees.

[Loki]

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/change-coming-engine-no-1-wins-two-exxon-board-seats

Just as @DurhamBorn said, more confirmation

[Heart's Ease]

2 hours ago, Loki said:

 

 

[JMD]

7 hours ago, Starsend said:

It's the barely concealed contempt and lack of tolerance for other view points that gets me. Why are so many people like that today? Cunts should be made to take a freezing cold shower every morning and then told there's only hot water available that was heated via fossil fuels.

Why the intolerance of others views you ask? A great question. For me it is the clash between enlightenment thought and post modernist thought. The former was developed through observation and experiment and served us well for hundreds of years, but was supplanted mid last century by something ever so clever and shiney (but mostly just whiny) by elite philosopher types. I posted about this a few weeks back, but the topic is not really for this thread.

[Hancock]

7 hours ago, Starsend said:

I was up a fiver once in an hour 

Don't spose you could manage a small loan, tenner should do it?

He is considerably richer than yaaaw.

 

[nirvana]

14 hours ago, Starsend said:

Cunts should be made to take a freezing cold shower every morning and then told there's only hot water available that was heated via fossil fuels.

and the Lord said let there be sun!  the problem is land, if you're stuck in a crummy apartment you ain't got much access to the sun......if you have your land or access to light and you're near enough to the equator well...

 

[BurntBread]

7 hours ago, JMD said:

Why the intolerance of others views you ask? A great question. For me it is the clash between enlightenment thought and post modernist thought. The former was developed through observation and experiment and served us well for hundreds of years, but was supplanted mid last century by something ever so clever and shiney (but mostly just whiny) by elite philosopher types. I posted about this a few weeks back, but the topic is not really for this thread.

While there may be a shift in the philosophical zeitgeist, I wonder whether the real reason is something more mundane? Specifically, people feel in their bones that they are getting screwed over, but can't understand quite how or why. That tends to make people more irritable and try to take control of their environment by pushing other people around.

It's a little thing, but for a number of years I have noticed a change in the way folk talk about the things they enjoy; for example being dogmatic about what coffee they drink, or talking about (for example) white chocolate being disgusting and dark chocolate being the only real thing. There is a similar polarisation with technologies, and this idea of Apple "fan-boys" or Windows "fan-boys" has gained prominence for a long time, as though those companies don't have marketing departments of their own.

When it annoys me, I say something like, "Oh is that one of those irregular verbs like on `Yes Minister'?: I prefer ... you should ... he's an idiot".

I believe the discourse everywhere, including in the public square, has moved from "I think" to "you should". My guess is this is the natural irritability of mankind as the pips are being gradually squeaked.