Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[wherebee]

I am more and more convinced that people at the top mostly know the square root of fuck all

"ECB’s chief economist Philip Lane stated that the surge in producer prices is not connected to rising inflationary trends, suggesting the ECB is determined to maintain its ultra-loose monetary policy."

[Lightscribe]

2 hours ago, wherebee said:

I am more and more convinced that people at the top mostly know the square root of fuck all

"ECB’s chief economist Philip Lane stated that the surge in producer prices is not connected to rising inflationary trends, suggesting the ECB is determined to maintain its ultra-loose monetary policy."

Oh they know alright. Have to keep the plebs distracted, can’t have them thinking too much and revolting while they print their livelihoods away.

[Barnsey]

3 hours ago, wherebee said:

I am more and more convinced that people at the top mostly know the square root of fuck all

"ECB’s chief economist Philip Lane stated that the surge in producer prices is not connected to rising inflationary trends, suggesting the ECB is determined to maintain its ultra-loose monetary policy."

Plus:

It's almost as though there's some kind of coordination going on...

[Lightscribe]

In answer to you @JMD, all I can say is we’ll see where it leads.
Anything is possible in the clown world existence at the moment. I personally think we’ll see the BK before it gets a chance to get to those levels.

But yes you’re right the government needs the technology, infrastructure  and development teams to succeed to integrate their CBDCs. It’s just whether you’ll be ‘saved’ from yourself for investing too heavily through taxation and regulation. They’ll use DOGE as a high profile example of how the little people have lost everything so regulation will be sorely needed so it doesn’t happen again.

[Lightscribe]

8 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

Plus:

It's almost as though there's some kind of coordination going on...

 

 

[jamtomorrow]

6 hours ago, JMD said:

I note that you estimate just 5 years before fiat is replaced by cbdc's. I don't know but perhaps that time scale chimes with some of the above?

Dunno about CDBCs, but you can get an idea of how crypto would play out from here - if (somehow) it manages not to get squashed by Government/VIs - by estimating where we are on the logistic adoption curve.

The answer I got last time was "sooner than you'd think" - 2023 is the year when policymakers won't be able to ignore BTC any more, which says to me they either need to have squashed it flat or else have CDBCs well-established by then.

Worth noting there's no "steady state" or "slower adoption" alternative available - the dynamics of technology adoption simply don't work like that. They really do need to kill it, outcompete it with CDBCs, or live with it - there is no "manage it" option.

[Majorpain]

44 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

Plus:

It's almost as though there's some kind of coordination going on...

[geordie_lurch]

10 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

I really don't think they care - the global reset is upon us and the current Central banks debts will be wiped for those in the club that move to the new CBDCs. However any plebs that manage to make it through the next 12-18 months will have to pay for the brave new world they find themselves in with only whatever TPTB have allowed them to keep

[Majorpain]

2 hours ago, geordie_lurch said:

I really don't think they care - the global reset is upon us and the current Central banks debts will be wiped for those in the club that move to the new CBDCs. However any plebs that manage to make it through the next 12-18 months will have to pay for the brave new world they find themselves in with only whatever TPTB have allowed them to keep

Just a bit of fun, don't read too much into it.  

[DurhamBorn]

Dollar index continues down towards target and has now entered the fuzzy zone.Still expect 86 with an 82.8 outlier ,but bottom could tag anywhere from here,89.6 was my minimum fall to level and thats been tagged.

The question is what falls on the rush back to Fiat.Its usual banks etc outperform as the yield curve helps them.US banks,not European.I think its highly likely most of the damage is done to crypto and bubble tech when the dollar turns.

The dollar turning will see the yield curve get into a nice shape for the Fed.I still see a chance they raise rates while still performing some QE for the government,though a rising dollar should mean they can tail off buying at both short and long.

The BK if it happens is likely during that point as dollar printing falls and demand increases.The question remains,will the liquidity mostly come from a crypto wipeout and a tech 70% fall,with 15% elsewhere then a turn,or broad based.

Im slowly raising some capital from areas that have trebled or more etc,and sold some Royal Mail today.Lots of trackers buying who sold when they left the FTSE and are about to re-enter.

[JMD]

12 hours ago, Straingone said:

Had a look into the Cazoo story out of interest and here are some of the numbers I pulled out:

17 collection centres

800+ staff

£1b revenue forecast 2021

25,000 cars sold in 18 months/46 per day

Estimate circa 17,000 units sold per year

At £500 per unit profit, £8.4m profit before tax

Current value over £2b (based on DMGT stated 20% holding £409m)

Valued as a ‘unicorn’ business in £800m in June 2020

Cazoo has increased in value by £1.2b in less than a year

DMGT stake cost £34m October 2020

DMGT stake currently valued at £409m May 2021

Two funding rounds totalling £450m

Expected stock market flotation in Q3:2021

Estimated flotation value £5b

DMGT stake valued at £1b if flotation goes ahead.

DMGT ROI 2841% in one year.

((100,000,000-34,000,000)/34,000,000) x 100)

Would anybody be able to point out if I have cocked the numbers up, or are they really that fantastical?

I do think Cazoo is very interesting. However, i was disapointed to hear that Cazoo is planning its US float by using a SPAC (this route to getting a stock market listing has exploded last/this year, but is not the traditional ipo route), which is a publicly traded shell company that's setup to hold private companies. Meaning the company valuations, structure, etc, are not transparent.

Tbh, i don't know much about SPACs but i wouldn't be surprised to hear that such entities provide a 'very frictionless' way of disposing of their underlying assets, i.e. might Cazoo be sold back into private hands in a few years at a very cheap price?... I fear that SPACs may just be part of the flight-to-private-equity trend we are increasingly see happen - a macro trend that i hate. 

[DoINeedOne]

5 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

 

 

Watching that for some reason just makes me think of Black Mirror

Oh and to all those who held Royal Mail this long well done

[JMD]

 

A very interesting graph. My initial takeaway is to check if i own enough mineral processors, and to maybe buy more, if after all, 'supply chains are coming home'.

Would welcome comments on other interpretations that can be drawn?

[Hardhat]

9 minutes ago, JMD said:

Would welcome comments on other interpretations that can be drawn?

Long HZM, long Yamana.

[JMD]

20 minutes ago, Hardhat said:

Long HZM, long Yamana.

Yes, but i was particularly struck by the industrial processing going on in China in terms of minerals (as opposed to oil, which the graph shows). I guess this is due to China being the largest consumer of these mineral raw materials? However, its just that oil processing doesn't figure in the same way.

[DurhamBorn]

For you Pizza makers,Tesco have the Mutti Pizza sauce on offer to clubcard holders for £1,i get 5 pizzas from a tin and find it the best on the market by a long way,even better than Pizza Express that is getting harder to get hold of anyway.I can make pretty close for 40p,but cant quite get the taste as good.Its for 11/23 date on it as well so stock up.

[Funn3r]

7 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

 

 

How many of these are there with exact words. Wouldn't you think that by now they would have learned to randomise the words a little bit so that it's more tricky to notice what's going on. 

This is extremely dangerous to our democracy.

This is an extreme danger to our democracy.

This is a dangerous attack on America's democracy.

Could be the timescales are too tight; as soon as they receive the 4AM talking point messages from the Clowns they have to get it ready to broadcast on the 6AM news so they don't have time to fiddlefuck around with the wording. Or maybe the exact words have been pre-qualified for precise psychological impact so they don't want to deviate.

[Transistor Man]

16 minutes ago, Funn3r said:

How many of these are there with exact words. Wouldn't you think that by now they would have learned to randomise the words a little bit so that it's more tricky to notice what's going on. 

This is extremely dangerous to our democracy.

This is an extreme danger to our democracy.

This is a dangerous attack on America's democracy.

 

I came across a scheme I’d never heard about before a few weeks back.

“Local Democracy Reporters” (I think), hired-staff at regional newspapers and tv channels around the country, but paid directly by the BBC. 

I think I read that there are already 165 of these people. 

[nirvana]

On 23/05/2021 at 20:57, DurhamBorn said:

I never buy much of anything outside of a crash

he's not daft this guy....

I've got a copy of that Mastering the Market on epub but I can't upload an epub

it would be useless to have an area to share this sort of stuff and not support that cunt Bezos?

actually DIY it's on tpb, unless someone wants me to upload it to a temp sharing site?

[nirvana]

On 24/05/2021 at 12:27, DurhamBorn said:

Big tech and crypto down by very large percentages

I took a leaf out of your book and bought 5 figures on Friday for a quick 4 figure return today 

Goldman are now endorsing Bitcoin....I can see the -ve sentiment towards crypto BUT it's not going away........convid is just one of the phases of government control and the introduction of 'digi dosh'

There's just so much dosh sloshing around thanks to the FED, it's like anything and everything is catching a bid....

so dunno, I still think it has running legs personally....please try to convince me otherwise?

Cheers!

[DurhamBorn]

2 minutes ago, nirvana said:

I took a leaf out of your book and bought 5 figures on Friday for a quick 4 figure return today 

Goldman are now endorsing Bitcoin....I can see the -ve sentiment towards crypto BUT it's not going away........convid is just one of the phases of government control and the introduction of 'digi dosh'

There's just so much dosh sloshing around thanks to the FED, it's like anything and everything is catching a bid....

so dunno, I still think it has running legs personally....please try to convince me otherwise?

Cheers!

Im not a trader,and im sure there are huge profits for those who are good at it,but what im pretty certain of is all those younger people buying and holding will lose almost all of their capital.People have every right to think thats wrong and do what they want with their money,but my opinion is at some point most of those investments are going down 90% to 99%.As i say im not a trader and im not interested in chasing big profits now although we have landed a lot this last year.Those who rode it up have done amazing,but if it was luck or judgement they should consider using a lot of that capital for real assets,not pet digital rocks.Just my opinion.

 

[nirvana]

3 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

most of those investments are going down 90% to 99%

yeah i agree there is a lot of crap in the crypto space and this won't surprise me with some of the late comers BUT putting the trading thing to one side and wearing my 'Techie Cap' and 'scared of what the government are capable of' I think it has to be the future?

Be nice to catch some of those big falls on the way down....which reminds me lol

[nirvana]

19 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

Crypto will crash to most likely 90% levels

so you think BTC and ETH will crash 90% too? Just as Goldmans are treating it as an 'investable asset'?

Apparently they're now ramping Eth to $18k USD too! lmfao

https://news.bitcoin.com/goldman-sachs-bitcoin-investable-asset-btc-new-asset-class/

[DurhamBorn]

20 minutes ago, nirvana said:

yeah i agree there is a lot of crap in the crypto space and this won't surprise me with some of the late comers BUT putting the trading thing to one side and wearing my 'Techie Cap' and 'scared of what the government are capable of' I think it has to be the future?

Be nice to catch some of those big falls on the way down....which reminds me lol

If you roadmap out long enough then its obvious there will be a few competing crypto type currencies,or whatever we choose to call them,i guess money because they will become  means of exchange for goods and services.The question is though what they will be.Will they be national currencies that slowly merge together so we end up with a few in the world,or will governments allow something to take their place.On Mars they will want the same currency/money unit as here.

Governments have and always will remove buying power from saved labour.The reasoning behind crypto is sound for that reason.However that doesnt mean its a good investment now because nobody knows what position any of them right now will hold in the future.

What the big US trading houses say has no meaning.They could be taking the oppposite side of the trade and talking the price up while they do so because they know something is coming from regulation.Likely the Fed need one crypto to blow up first,DOGE might fit the bill,or isnt there one called $ass now or something 

[JMD]

1 hour ago, Funn3r said:

How many of these are there with exact words. Wouldn't you think that by now they would have learned to randomise the words a little bit so that it's more tricky to notice what's going on. 

This is extremely dangerous to our democracy.

This is an extreme danger to our democracy.

This is a dangerous attack on America's democracy.

Could be the timescales are too tight; as soon as they receive the 4AM talking point messages from the Clowns they have to get it ready to broadcast on the 6AM news so they don't have time to fiddlefuck around with the wording. Or maybe the exact words have been pre-qualified for precise psychological impact so they don't want to deviate.

I don't believe its (secret) conspiracy, but it is dreadful manipulation - i think the commercialisation of the US news industry means everything is distilled down to the most basic/dumb points, then whatever is found to work is replicated, first throughout the giant news corporation, but then also copied by its competitors, etc, etc... Plus to retain/keep the audience watching/entertained, similar overly-dramatic or heightened language is favored ('what bleeds, leads...' illustrates the cynicism of the newsroom).  

But if i were to be critical of the individuals, i'd say the so called 'reporters' all sound and say the same things because they are not informing their audience, they are instead lecturing them. Lecturing/messaging must be repeatedly told for it to be sold, and the most effective dogma is typically highly codified.

(its a pity children are not warned of the dangers of these types of manipulations at school so that when encountered, the techniques can be ridiculed and rejected, i.e. social media has been highly divisive and socially corrosive; the scary part is that the reporters themselves have been educated into their own insular modish way of perceiving the world, so none of these harms can be easily 'undone' because the system is self perpetuating)