Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Hancock]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

very good chance of nuclear war in Asia.

Could be why my Fission Uranium shares are up today!

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Loki said:

"a day when over 1000 people are murdered in the UK in a day"  Durhamborn unplugged!  Thanks mate, I have similar thoughts myself on the 'non-numerical' side of things.  (My brain works in thoughts/concepts not numbers.)

Always good to have what seem sometimes like TFH thoughts backed-up by someone who does do numbers. 

Yes, but however bad I guarantee one constant, there'll be a DOSBODS thread:  "Has the end of the world  officially killed the housing market?"!

[King Penda]

1 hour ago, Loki said:

Unbelievable what I'm seeing over there

Italy’s on about makeing them compulsory don’t think even ozz has gone that far

[Talking Monkey]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

First thoughts on the end of this next cycle are a complete Fiat collapse in value,the monetary system all taken over by government,70% of debts unable to pay coupons or interest until the debt is worthless,bonds losing 99% of their value,equity 85%,a day when over 1000 people are murdered in the UK in a day,food rations,tech brought under government control and the very good chance of nuclear war in Asia.

Of course that assumes inflation runs really hot later in this cycle.If we just get high inflation it wont be anywhere near as bad.

 

Cheers DB, at what level of inflation is the above scenario likely to unfold. Trying to understand what numbers you see as really hot inflation as opposed to high inflation. 

What you describe is how I envisioned it here in the UK if we get that end cycle collapse, though I didn't think there would be nuclear war somewhere on the globe. Who do you see as the likely participants in that exchange.

[Talking Monkey]

1 hour ago, Froggy2000 said:

I feel similarly terrified about the future 10+ years from now.  If the scenario you describe comes close to being accurate there will be a race war and not just in the UK but throughout Europe.

Most of the 1000+ murders a day will be in London, Birmingham etc.  One more reason to move to the North East.

I'm not insightful and knowledgeable enough to contribute much to the financial discussion on this thread, but if I had to give any advice it would be to make the most of the next 5 years.

Top advice, I fully intend to thoroughly enjoy life while things are relatively good. 

[Starsend]

1 hour ago, King Penda said:

Italy’s on about makeing them compulsory don’t think even ozz has gone that far

Making what compulsory?

[King Penda]

2 minutes ago, Starsend said:

Making what compulsory?

The jab I’d expect riots that could spread

[DurhamBorn]

31 minutes ago, Talking Monkey said:

Cheers DB, at what level of inflation is the above scenario likely to unfold. Trying to understand what numbers you see as really hot inflation as opposed to high inflation. 

What you describe is how I envisioned it here in the UK if we get that end cycle collapse, though I didn't think there would be nuclear war somewhere on the globe. Who do you see as the likely participants in that exchange.

Its more how much printing.If inflation tops out at under 10%pa it should be just really really nasty.The problem is we have massive structural problems that liquidity wont fix,but actually make worse.Look how shelves are empty now and companies cant get carers yet each town has thousands of young women on tax credits/universal credit who have no idea what work is.

Nuclear exchange likely China,India,Pakistan.Thats an outlier,conventional is more likely.

Plenty of time to worry about things in 5 years though.Lots can change and we are nowhere near yet.This early in this cycle has enough to focus on for us.

[No One]

 

[macca]

6 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Its more how much printing.If inflation tops out at under 10%pa it should be just really really nasty.The problem is we have massive structural problems that liquidity wont fix,but actually make worse.Look how shelves are empty now and companies cant get carers yet each town has thousands of young women on tax credits/universal credit who have no idea what work is

Tax credits are just reducing wage costs for corporations, subsidised by tax payers

Housing benefits are just keeping the housing Ponzi scheme going, If the council could only pay £400 a month what would happen then? Lots of homeless, lots of bankrupt landlords.. or both

80% of UK food imported,, we are massively overpopulated,, if we had a currency crash god knows how we would feed ourselves.

[Talking Monkey]

44 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Its more how much printing.If inflation tops out at under 10%pa it should be just really really nasty.The problem is we have massive structural problems that liquidity wont fix,but actually make worse.Look how shelves are empty now and companies cant get carers yet each town has thousands of young women on tax credits/universal credit who have no idea what work is.

Nuclear exchange likely China,India,Pakistan.Thats an outlier,conventional is more likely.

Plenty of time to worry about things in 5 years though.Lots can change and we are nowhere near yet.This early in this cycle has enough to focus on for us.

Thanks DB.

Conventional between India and Pakistan defo seems a decent probability. They've been itching to go for decades. 

Agree lots to be done in the near term, best to get on with it. 

 

[MrXxxx]

9 hours ago, macca said:

Is anyone hoarding food bunker style? 

On a recent walk down a local High street in the sunshine I would say about 90% of the British population, the thing is nobody told them they should be storing it in the cupboard!

[MrXxxx]

9 hours ago, Harley said:

Yes, but however bad I guarantee one constant, there'll be a DOSBODS thread:  "Has the end of the world  officially killed the housing market?"!

...and the `Fanny Craddocks` out there will still be posting their recipes for rat stew :-)...ah, an `oasis of normality` in a `world of turmoil`!

[Noallegiance]

8 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Its more how much printing.If inflation tops out at under 10%pa it should be just really really nasty.The problem is we have massive structural problems that liquidity wont fix,but actually make worse.Look how shelves are empty now and companies cant get carers yet each town has thousands of young women on tax credits/universal credit who have no idea what work is.

Nuclear exchange likely China,India,Pakistan.Thats an outlier,conventional is more likely.

Plenty of time to worry about things in 5 years though.Lots can change and we are nowhere near yet.This early in this cycle has enough to focus on for us.

Well I'm thankful that you don't have a successful track record in calling things early.

[kibuc]

8 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Look how shelves are empty now and companies cant get carers yet each town has thousands of young women on tax credits/universal credit who have no idea what work is.

If there's a silver lining in this scenario, it's that high inflation will eventually evaporate the bennies. I'll take 10% per annum for a few years it that means the scroungers need to find a fucking job.

[feed]

If there's a silver lining in this scenario, it's that high inflation will eventually evaporate the bennies. I'll take 10% per annum for a few years it that means the government will take everything you own and redistribute it.

[kibuc]

8 minutes ago, feed said:

 

Please don't do that, I don't appreciate my name assigned to things I've never said or wrote.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

37 minutes ago, kibuc said:

If there's a silver lining in this scenario, it's that high inflation will eventually evaporate the bennies. I'll take 10% per annum for a few years it that means the scroungers need to find a fucking job.

It will wipe out highly leveraged landlords too, at least those who deal with benefits claimants. Assuming, as you have done, that benefits, including housing benefits, don't keep up. Even the unleveraged landlords will lose relative spending power.

[Barnsey]

#rate of change 

 

[Sugarlips]

16 hours ago, Hancock said:

Exactly people have been forced to rent for 20 years due to this globalist HPI and working plebs are fucken furious about it, its as if those who quote that line have forgot that.

Brand new car ownership has seems to have gone down the be happy to not own, but i don't suppose it makes them any more or less happy than someone who owns a 10 year old car .... apart from the day they collect it.

This is the bit I don’t get, surely the millennials are capable of scrolling through Facebook marketplace for low mileage cars sub £1500.

[HousePriceMania]

given the way the fed etc are acting....somethings serious collapsed.

[Barnsey]

Your daily reminder  (sometimes I fear he's just a Bot)

 

[Sugarlips]

Just now, Barnsey said:

Your daily reminder  (sometimes I fear he's just a Bot)

 

Has he cranked silver even higher or was it always 3x?

[Barnsey]

Just now, Sugarlips said:

Has he cranked silver even higher or was it always 3x?

He's been saying it for so long I've developed memory loss.

In other news...

 

[belfastchild]

6 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

I finally got to see my old man after almost two years during the summer, he has a bit of land in a very remote spot. I've been discussing a plot of land with him to build a bolt hole, but as soon as you're into planning permission you're into the vortex of government, bureaucracy ... and tax. So I was thinking about a log cabin, let's see them find that. Then I thought there is always some do gooding busybody to shop you. So why not a caravan? That'd work. And then I thought...glamping tent! They're only about 1k and if 7m diameter about the size of a city apartment. Let's see the the bastards try and tax that!

Of course my old man would think I've become a hippie and growing weed, and would shoot me, so I'll have to wait a bit.

No need, if its where I think it might be ;-)

32ft+ older static caravan off a site. They take the older models off site to flog people newer ones. Can get one for a couple of grand and say 4k all in for it to be towed (last bit by landrover or tractor yourself). Screen trees around it and its still temporary for temporary workers to work the land. Newer ones have oil heating ffs!

Looked in to this myself the last couple of years down in rainy country