Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Agent ZigZag said:

Count yourself lucky to have funds. Ive been waiting for a six figure sum transfer  for 5 weeks now for this very moment and am unable to take advantage of current prices

Pension trasnfer? touchy subject that one for me.

[Agent ZigZag]

Matter resolved with Hargreaves and will be compensated as I have been financially disadvantaged in the transfer values. Should have funds by Friday. Lets hope the oil sector continues trending down until then

[Dogtania]

3 hours ago, Agent ZigZag said:

Count yourself lucky to have funds. Ive been waiting for a six figure sum transfer  for 5 weeks now for this very moment and am unable to take advantage of current prices

Hopefully it comes soon but would wager there are more falls coming

[reformed nice guy]

Here is a random ETF I stumbled across:

http://buzzindexes.com/

It uses "AI" to monitor sentiment on social media, TV, newspapers etc to construct its ETF fund allocation.

Could be a good source of what to bet against?

[Loki]

Oil back below $50 (48.67)

[One percent]

18 minutes ago, Loki said:

Oil back below $50 (48.67)

Oh good, that means that the price at the pump will drop. Oh, wait....  

[TheCountOfNowhere]

44 minutes ago, One percent said:

Oh good, that means that the price at the pump will drop. Oh, wait....  

Its down about 15p a litre in 2 months 

[One percent]

Just now, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Its down about 15p a litre in 2 months 

Not here it isnt. Up by about 10p in the last few weeks. 

[TNS]

11 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Its down about 15p a litre in 2 months 

I don't think my Shell fill up cost has changed in several months.

[BoSon]

12 hours ago, One percent said:

Not here it isnt. Up by about 10p in the last few weeks. 

Be wary of opportunist petrol stations pumping prices up as the virus panic spreads, despite oil going in the opposite direction as the world economy grinds to a halt however temporary.

[Barnsey]

Hmmmmm....

 

[Burly]

Different this time...??

[Barnsey]

7 minutes ago, Burly said:

Different this time...??

As we're 11 years into in a record breaking expansion with unprecedented stock valuations, and China was already in a position of great weakness, quite possibly yes. If central banks panic and go big on rate cuts and stimulus, I guess we could still see a crazy melt up in stocks into the summer, but they have to act fast.

[Democorruptcy]

46 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

Hmmmmm....

 

Funnily enough I was just wondering if it was worth a separate thread.

You can add Persimmon

Are they all jetting off to a safe haven island somewhere?

[Democorruptcy]

52 minutes ago, BoSon said:

Be wary of opportunist petrol stations pumping prices up as the virus panic spreads, despite oil going in the opposite direction as the world economy grinds to a halt however temporary.

When we had the petrol refineries blockades a few years ago, a local petrol station in West Yorkshire changed my life. The sign outside proudly displayed "Asians Only". I thought I really do have to get the fuck out of this area and did.

[Loki]

Could this (virus) be the catalyst/excuse needed to start and maybe accelerate @DurhamBorn's debt deflation? Am I correct to assume that lowering rates by The Fed would be a stalling tactic?

[dgul]

2 minutes ago, Loki said:

Could this (virus) be the catalyst/excuse needed to start and maybe accelerate @DurhamBorn's debt deflation? Am I correct to assume that lowering rates by The Fed would be a stalling tactic?

I'm assuming that we're about to get a humongous stimulus because of this -- lower rates and  QE.  This won't just stall but will produce a mini-boom.  

And then it'll crash, because economies need real economic activity, and just injecting money doesn't actually help.  Keynesian money does work (ie, directed at actually doing stuff rather than just being money), but that's coming (in sufficient quantities) later on again.

[reformed nice guy]

1 minute ago, Loki said:

Could this (virus) be the catalyst/excuse needed to start and maybe accelerate @DurhamBorn's debt deflation? Am I correct to assume that lowering rates by The Fed would be a stalling tactic?

My reasoning to support @DurhamBorns hypothesis is that printing money will not save a f%£&$d supply chain, so the fall out will be significant. Chinese companies wont be able to fulfil orders and those that have large US dollar denominated debt will default. Firms around the world buying the goods from Chinese factories will also suffer, especially non-US companies with USD debt as well.

I think the signs are there..... but only time will tell. Might end up with another 2+ years of up & up!

[Barnsey]

24 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Funnily enough I was just wondering if it was worth a separate thread.

You can add Persimmon

Are they all jetting off to a safe haven island somewhere?

Bob Iger was due to retire from Disney at some point but his announcement was alarmingly sudden a couple days ago, no coincidence that 40% of $DIS revenue comes from their Theme Parks and Cruises?

[Barnsey]

46 minutes ago, reformed nice guy said:

My reasoning to support @DurhamBorns hypothesis is that printing money will not save a f%£&$d supply chain, so the fall out will be significant. Chinese companies wont be able to fulfil orders and those that have large US dollar denominated debt will default. Firms around the world buying the goods from Chinese factories will also suffer, especially non-US companies with USD debt as well.

I think the signs are there..... but only time will tell. Might end up with another 2+ years of up & up!

From what I can gather, no one knows when this will all subside, we’re still on the upward trajectory in spread, therefore a supply shock is currently (and will be for the foreseeable next few quarters) largely outweighed by a worsening demand shock. When we finally recover, I’d imagine things will swing to the other extreme as stimulus feeds through.

Note BOK held rates when almost everyone expected a cut, they are preserving their ammo for now because frankly no one knows when this will calm down, and throwing money at the virus won’t kill it. Also key to note is that a sufficiently tested approved vaccine won’t be made available until year end at the soonest, and that’s at the optimistic end of forecasts.

It really seems to be starting to spread in the US now so all eyes on the Fed to take action

EDIT: manufacturing heavy countries will benefit somewhat from suppressed demand, however U.K. and U.S. 80% services, which won’t.

[Heart's Ease]

1 hour ago, Barnsey said:

Hmmmmm....

 

 

46 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Funnily enough I was just wondering if it was worth a separate thread.

You can add Persimmon

Are they all jetting off to a safe haven island somewhere?

Absolutely not to detail this thread as we have a Q thread - whatever your thoughts on Q it's helpful to be aware of Resignation Anon's Twitter feed. He/she has been tracking resignations for two years (something Q asked be done after Trump signed an "Executive Order Blocking the Property of Persons Involved in Serious Human Rights Abuse or Corruption" in December 2017).  No matter why they are resigning, it's one heck of a clear out.

 

[JMD]

1 hour ago, Democorruptcy said:

When we had the petrol refineries blockades a few years ago, a local petrol station in West Yorkshire changed my life. The sign outside proudly displayed "Asians Only". I thought I really do have to get the fuck out of this area and did.

Wow! But let me guess - was this Bradford or Rotherham? ...or is my question revealing bigotism, subconscious racism or exhibiting micro-aggressions?

I wonder though, did the local/national press cover this story all? And did you take any photos?

[Democorruptcy]

3 minutes ago, JMD said:

Wow! But let me guess - was this Bradford or Rotherham? ...or is my question revealing bigotism, subconscious racism or exhibiting micro-aggressions?

I wonder though, did the local/national press cover this story all? And did you take any photos?

It was Saville Town Dewsbury, near where the 7/7 bomber was based.

I didn't see anything in the papers but I was only buying the Racing Post! Pre-mobile phone and I didn't have a camera on me.

[JMD]

54 minutes ago, dgul said:

I'm assuming that we're about to get a humongous stimulus because of this -- lower rates and  QE.  This won't just stall but will produce a mini-boom.  

And then it'll crash, because economies need real economic activity, and just injecting money doesn't actually help.  Keynesian money does work (ie, directed at actually doing stuff rather than just being money), but that's coming (in sufficient quantities) later on again.

I agree - a massive stimulous in US election year, and then blaming it all on the effects of Coronavirus+Chinese slow down, is in the script.

Although I notice yesterday Trump is talking the virus down, drawing attention to the fact that over last 10 years in the US alone there has been an average of 30,000 deaths per year. 

[Democorruptcy]

It doesn't rain it pours:

The government will decide in June whether to abandon talks with the EU and prepare for a no-deal Brexit on World Trade Organization terms.