Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Green Devil]

Just now, Loki said:

"The time to buy is when blood is running in the streets"

~ Some rich possibly apocryphal guy

No, the time to buy is one week after the blood in the streets.

You can never predict how long the blood in the streets keeps running, with the evil CovID it could be longer than you think.

[Loki]

4 minutes ago, Green Devil said:

No, the time to buy is one week after the blood in the streets.

You can never predict how long the blood in the streets keeps running, with the evil CovID it could be longer than you think.

See, they always leave out a key detail.  That's how they stay rich 

[Barnsey]

21 minutes ago, harp said:

S&P closes down over 4%! I've been buying today even though I'm bleeding... Hopefully this is the crash we have been expecting. Time to focus the mind and be strong?

Just watching the futures right now 

[Green Devil]

Just now, Loki said:

See, they always leave out a key detail.  That's how they stay rich 

Haha, do you know how long it took me to learn that lesson 

[TheCountOfNowhere]

5 minutes ago, Green Devil said:

No, the time to buy is one week after the blood in the streets.

You can never predict how long the blood in the streets keeps running, with the evil CovID it could be longer than you think.

Feet up... Relax.... If you don't die.... Go all in. 

[Green Devil]

1 minute ago, Barnsey said:

 

Just the sound of another bubble popping. All that QE4 unwound in an instant. And they can blame the coronavirus for their money printing quantitive easing robbery. I wonder how long until they release some new stimulus plan... The weekend perhaps?

[Errol]

re. gold -

CME hiked gold margins by 10%. This explains some of the price weakness today.

[Green Devil]

3 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Feet up... Relax.... If you don't die.... Go all in. 

Bitcoin holding steady..

[Loki]

Just now, Green Devil said:

Haha, do you know how long it took me to learn that lesson 

Helps that they always, always, get the juiciest news first.  

 

[Noallegiance]

Just now, Errol said:

re. gold -

CME hiked gold margins by 10%. This explains some of the price weakness today.

What does this mean?

[Green Devil]

Exxon mobil was a stock in the 100's, its now a stock in the 40s.

[Barnsey]

5 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I might frame that oil road map Barnsey. .Million $ question now though is am i right that the bottom is between here and $43? .Then back up to the $71 area .

Remember as well @Cattle Prod has provided fantastic info from the inside.That adds confidence that my road map is right.We will soon know.

Agreed, oil begging for Fed to cut, if they do (emergency cut or March meeting at latest - 50bps?) then oil could certainly bounce back to $60+

[Barnsey]

35 minutes ago, harp said:

S&P closes down over 4%! I've been buying today even though I'm bleeding... Hopefully this is the crash we have been expecting. Time to focus the mind and be strong?

I don’t think the Fed are going out without kicking and screaming, but notice how silent Powell et al have been this week? Waiting in the wings, I expect that to change “bigly” and rather soon, if not an emergency cut then a cut at the March FOMC, + QE which will likely provide the positivity for a last hurrah unless the zombie apocalypse is real.

[dgul]

8 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

Agreed, oil begging for Fed to cut, if they do (emergency cut or March meeting at latest - 50bps?) then oil could certainly bounce back to $60+

Given the markets this week I'd suggest an emergency cut in the next 24 hours (maybe on the weekend for Monday).

[I'd actually bet on it being before markets open tomorrow.  Maybe announced tonight.  I don't think they've got much choice.]

[dgul]

We'll see on the tape if they're going to cut/print about 6 hours before they announce it.

[Green Devil]

7 minutes ago, dgul said:

Given the markets this week I'd suggest an emergency cut in the next 24 hours (maybe on the weekend for Monday).

[I'd actually bet on it being before markets open tomorrow.  Maybe announced tonight.  I don't think they've got much choice.]

This time i dont think it will make any difference. Dow will still be down another 1000pts. Who cares if rates are 0.25 instead of 0.5%? Its irrelevant.

If Italy turns into another hubei, and it takes hold in europe, then i cant see the bottom.

 

Luton Milan flight at the weekend are selling on easyjet for this Sat back on mon for £30. That must be their bottom price. Usually 2 days before they are 250 return.

[dgul]

3 minutes ago, Green Devil said:

This time i dont think it will make any difference. Dow will still be down another 1000pts. Who cares if rates are 0.25 instead of 0.5%? Its irrelevant.

If Italy turns into another hubei, and it takes hold in europe, then i cant see the bottom.

 

Luton Milan flight at the weekend are selling on easyjet for this Sat back on mon for £30. That must be their bottom price. Usually 2 days before they are 250 return.

They'll do whatever it takes to reverse the move -- QE, interest rates, helicopters, whatever.

This'll lead to massive problems later in the year, but will probably work now.

[Barnsey]

13 minutes ago, dgul said:

We'll see on the tape if they're going to cut/print about 6 hours before they announce it.

They better hurry up

 

[TheCountOfNowhere]

30 minutes ago, Green Devil said:

Bitcoin holding steady..

Try buying food with that. 

[Bear Hug]

1 minute ago, Green Devil said:

This time i dont think it will make any difference. Dow will still be down another 1000pts. Who cares if rates are 0.25 instead of 0.5%? Its irrelevant.

There is some sort of magic happening in shanghai index, may happen over here too? 

[Noallegiance]

1 minute ago, Barnsey said:

They better hurry up

 

Fuck a mallard

[dgul]

Whitehouse preparing to hold emergency press meeting over the market crash.

[Barnsey]

10 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

That's pretty much why I switched from short us equities to long eurodollars today. More than that they have to, they now have the fig leaf/excuse (virus). Theyve been quiet, waiting for the new virus clusters to take root in the west.

What I did NOT see coming was GDXJ getting smashed over 6% today, wtf was that about? I need to go back and look at past performance on this one, and think wether the risk of holding on till my 1750 gold target is really worth it. After all gold came very very close to @DurhamBorn s 1700 gold target. That one hurt today I must say, I'd like to hear more about the effect of Comex playing around with margins, if anyone has further insight.

Same here, clinging on for dear life, still of the belief that weak hands are getting rid for liquidity, also may be suffering from wider passive ETF sell off if included in funds etc. I think noticeable Fed action is what we’re waiting for CP.

[Majorpain]

37 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

I don’t think the Fed are going out without kicking and screaming, but notice how silent Powell et al have been this week? Waiting in the wings, I expect that to change “bigly” and rather soon, if not an emergency cut then a cut at the March FOMC, + QE which will likely provide the positivity for a last hurrah unless the zombie apocalypse is real.

They are silent because they are powerless, printing $1 trillion tomorrow will not stop supply chain disruption.

It was inevitable that eventually a crisis would come along that the fed would not be able to solve by printing money.

[dgul]

3 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

They are silent because they are powerless, printing $1 trillion tomorrow will not stop supply chain disruption.

 

No, it would go directly into supporting asset prices.