Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[TheCountOfNowhere]

1 minute ago, Majorpain said:

Wow, that was fast.

The tantrum when the Fed doesnt give the market a dose of monetary heroin (because they don't want to go down the Weimar Germany route) will be epic.

Had that thought myself. 

 

The big people have been bailed already perhaps. 

 

We will see. 

[Harley]

4 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Had that thought myself.

The big people have been bailed already perhaps.

We will see. 

Sell the rumour (of bail out)?

[TheCountOfNowhere]

Had a look at tui... Looks more like one-y now. 

4 minutes ago, Harley said:

Sell the rumour (of bail out)?

Sit... Wait....watch what they do.

[Barnsey]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

Try that in a currency other than GBP!  Like gold.

Indeedy, or simply just inflation adjusted, FTSE down 35% in 20 years 

[DurhamBorn]

59 minutes ago, Lavalas said:

Any current thinking on Southwestern Energy @DurhamBorn / @Cattle Prod? Annual results out yesterday. Met guidance and committing to free cash flow by the end of the year.

I’m investing in big oil for safety but keen on some riskier plays in natural gas, and for those reading, I’m a novice and this does appear to be a riskier play. I’m guessing coma score says as much @sancho panza?

Cheers

I have a very small holding in them.Ray Dalio has been buying them as well.

46 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

U.S. futures not looking all that bad at the moment pre market open, interesting. Markets now pricing in FOUR rate cuts, expecting imminent Fed QE response?

I still think Fed money will be going to governments through deficit spending,so it wont go the way people expect.

[Lightscribe]

If the whole situation continues to increase in severity, I’ve pencilled in to start laddering back into a FTSE 100 tracker starting in the 5900 zone, continuing to deplete my cash fund down to a possible 4500 before being fully invested.

I will watch the US markets, but I think the massacre of losses that will happen to the FANGs will could take it to 15000 and below.

All depends on when the stimulus starts then fails. No more tricks left in pull out the hat, as rate cut effectiveness will do fuck all. I expect a choppy next couple of weeks with stimulus starting to pump into the market, but ultimately the outlook is down if the virus isn’t contained.

[nirvana]

56 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

Wow, that was fast.

The tantrum when the Fed doesnt give the market a dose of monetary heroin (because they don't want to go down the Weimar Germany route) will be epic.

Isn't this Weimar UK? The kraut kids couldn't afford a loaf, the UK kids can't afford a house! It's all about inflation innit?

[CVG]

In this weeks Moneyweek (I've not read it yet)

https://moneyweek.com/investments/commodities/energy/renewables/600889/hydrogen-the-cleaner-greener-fuel-that-will-power

You probably need to subscribe to read the full article.

[nirvana]

2 hours ago, Talking Monkey said:

I don't think it is the Big Kahuna too SP the reason being that the Fed can cut rates and do a load of QE to provide the sugar rush for a big spike up, they still have that left up their sleeve

I think this could well be the Big Kahuna, Powell himself earlier in the month admitted the FED had 'very little ammo'

They have been QEing like crazy since 2008, there is a distinct possibility that the bubble might have finally burst due to this black swan...OK you need to accept it as a black swan 

Personally I think things have been fucked since the 1980s.......the abolishion of Glass-Steagull in 1999 is one example of this...there is no free market capitalism anymore, it's all about crony capitalism!!

If you believe in 'cycles' how are any of the metrics in this chart gonna start going back up? They can't cos there's too much debt in the system! 

[CVG]

Could have spoken to DB

"

The rise of “green” hydrogen

The rise and ever-declining costs of wind and solar have given hydrogen a new lift, however – if hydrogen were instead produced by electrolysing water using electricity from renewable sources (so called “green hydrogen”), then we would have at our disposal an abundant source of genuinely green energy. Less than 0.1% of global dedicated hydrogen production today comes from water electrolysis, but the Hydrogen Council, an industry body, thinks that by 2050 green hydrogen could provide almost a fifth of total power consumed globally and thereby avoid six billion tonnes of greenhouse-gas emissions per year – roughly the equivalent of those emitted by the US annually."

[nirvana]

5 hours ago, dgul said:

The question is, when to catch the knife?

Bottom pickers get smelly fingers 

 

[reformed nice guy]

17 minutes ago, confused said:

I think this could well be the Big Kahuna, Powell himself earlier in the month admitted the FED had 'very little ammo'

They have been QEing like crazy since 2008, there is a distinct possibility that the bubble might have finally burst due to this black swan...OK you need to accept it as a black swan 

Personally I think things have been fucked since the 1980s.......the abolishion of Glass-Steagull in 1999 is one example of this...there is no free market capitalism anymore, it's all about crony capitalism!!

If you believe in 'cycles' how are any of the metrics in this chart gonna start going back up? They can't cos there's too much debt in the system! 

One way the cycle *could* possibly change is from the decline of offshoring to China and a LOT of defaults

[Barnsey]

Argh spoke too soon, jinxed it 

[spygirl]

2 minutes ago, reformed nice guy said:

One way the cycle *could* possibly change is from the decline of offshoring to China and a LOT of defaults

Thast been happening for ~5 years, which is why Eocnomists are getting confuse by the length of the US expansion.

Economist never took into account China's affect of supply when they entered WTO in 2000, destroying jobs. Equally, they never bother taking China into account as its removed from the world economy as it gts older, more expensive.

There'll be a huge investment in onshoring after the whole virus fallout.

Companies have only saved a few pennies by offshoring to CHina, only to see $$$ lost during the virus.

Then there will eb the fallout as they Chinese start revolting against CCP.

 

 

[Lavalas]

Oooof

😩

 

 

[kibuc]

Sweet Mother Mary.

Alexco -25%

Impact -17%... again.

Fortuna -15%.

New Gold -14%

I was semi-chilled about it all so far but I'm entering "how do I tell my wife about it" territory.

[Lavalas]

I mean, I’ve absolutely no idea where the bottom is so no idea when would be a good time to buy but surely there’s some bargains here. Look at Alexco ffs... down 20%... today.

[kibuc]

Hahaha, you could not make it up

[spygirl]

14 minutes ago, kibuc said:

Sweet Mother Mary.

Alexco -25%

Impact -17%... again.

Fortuna -15%.

New Gold -14%

I was semi-chilled about it all so far but I'm entering "how do I tell my wife about it" territory.

Tell her youve knocked up the 15yo baby sitter.

 

[JMD]

6 hours ago, Solzhenitsyn said:

Uranium and it’s miners will also be a material part of my SIPP. Convinced nuclear will be needed to satisfy future energy demand. Mostly looking at GCL and YCA funds for that allocation.

hi Solzhenitzin, I already own YCA, but also like the look of GCL - please could you confirm what annual charge you are paying for this fund, is it 1.38%? (only HL state a 1.38% initial charge, and a 4% annual charge, which doesn't sound right to me) 

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

 

I'm supposed to be doing some work on me house... this thread is bloody ADDITIVE as EVERY time i come here this thread is in RED-HOT MODE!

This is some melt-down CRASH PARTY...theres going to be some RICH PICKINGS for the savvy!

(BUT... i already bought: shell & BP last week at HIGHER prices! Still no sweat as have 1 more bundle to buy)

 

NOT to WORRY Folks cos in other NEWS...

 

"UK house prices rise at fastest pace in 18 months"

 

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/uk-house-prices-nationwide-property-market-england-london-082322095.html

 

read comments below the article above... some Muppet posted:

 

" ill advice anyone to stay away from shares, house prices never fall. " ya couldn't make it up!

 

EDIT: F****** Hell ...FTSE now DOWN 300 points!

[DurhamBorn]

Well iv sold my TLT just.My target at the start of the thread on HPC was 160 and its 155,but iv decided to sell.This is probably the last few months in the sun for an amazing long bond cycle from 1982.

I wont be able to even buy them back,as they are one of the funds you cant buy now thanks to the EU.

[kibuc]

6 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Well iv sold my TLT just.My target at the start of the thread on HPC was 160 and its 155,but iv decided to sell.This is probably the last few months in the sun for an amazing long bond cycle from 1982.

I wont be able to even buy them back,as they are one of the funds you cant buy now thanks to the EU.

Looks to me that you think this is the big one? 

[BadAlchemy]

6 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Well iv sold my TLT just.My target at the start of the thread on HPC was 160 and its 155,but iv decided to sell.This is probably the last few months in the sun for an amazing long bond cycle from 1982.

I wont be able to even buy them back,as they are one of the funds you cant buy now thanks to the EU.

You can buy the IBTL instead?

I'm sitting here like a rabbit in the headlights trying to time a swap out of some IBTL into RDSB and BP. Maybe right now is the best time or... maybe they will spread even further apart. Aaargh! Need to calm down and get disciplined about it.

[Democorruptcy]

59 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

Argh spoke too soon, jinxed it 

I find this HL page a bit annoying at times, only through my own incompetence. I look at the UK Markets, then the World Markets, then after a while refresh it and am surprised that the DOW drop isn't as bad. That's when I realise it's defaulted back to the UK Markets and it's the FTSE on the top row instead of the DOW