Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[DurhamBorn]

4 minutes ago, Panda said:

That's quite reassuring. I'd be comfortable with a six figure sum in shares/portfolio.

I have to admit I do like HL's portal, it's so easy to buy land sell..

Just a tad difficult to time. Might suggest to them a bottom button.

Cheers DB...

On another note it looks like rates are going negative..

Another sugar boost for the market..

Real rates are what matter and the Fed and BOE,ECB etc will all keep them below inflation for almost the whole cycle.The Fed is even telling people that but people arent listening to whats been said.Its the last leg of the great dis-inflation cycle playing out.Markets lead the economy not the other way around,and i suspect the first signs of inflation will be in the energy complex,then agriculture.

Massive amounts of QE liquidity is sitting in the pipes and building around the economy.Negative rates are a smokescreen from the BOE,they are to focus the media etc away from what they are about to do again.Monetize another £100 billion+ for the government.

Western governments need inflation at 4% compounding above trend to turn the tax take positive,trend inflation is around 3.1%,so an average cycle inflation of around 7.1%pa is what i see.

[DoINeedOne]

In regards to the few posts asking about Degiro please DOYR but some info Degiro 

 

I have bought stocks that HL didn't offer but mostly use HL, so whilst i have stocks in my Degiro account i have not used then for a longtime but no problems so far 

 

Money held with Degiro like cash balances etc.. in your account is not held by them 

Because DEGIRO is not a bank, it is not allowed to hold the money of clients on its own balance sheet or use it for its own investments. You thus do not keep money at DEGIRO. Money that DEGIRO receives from you is immediately invested (based on a standing order) in a Money Market Fund.

Money Market Funds are investment funds that aim, with as little risk as possible, to achieve a return that is equal to the regular market rate in the currency concerned. The value of these funds may fluctuate, just as with any other investment. If you do not want to invest or invest less in Money Market Funds, you can invest the value into other Financial Instruments of your choice or you can give DEGIRO the instruction to book money back to your bank account.

Global access

With DEGIRO, European investors are connected to the world’s markets. Unlike our competitors, many of whom only offer access to European and US exchanges, DEGIRO also offers access to markets in Australia, Japan, Hong Kong and many more across the globe. This provides clients with the opportunity to benefit from a truly global diversification of assets.

Regarding Regulation

DEGIRO is under behavioural supervision by Netherlands Authority for the Financial Markets (AFM) and prudential supervision by the Dutch Central Bank (DNB). DEGIRO has been granted a license pursuant to article 2:96 of the Act on Financial Supervision in the Netherlands, to act as an investment firm. DEGIRO has its registered office and statutory seat in Amsterdam in accordance with its articles of association. DEGIRO is registered with the Chamber of Commerce and Industry in Amsterdam under number 34342820.

 

Asset segregation

At DEGIRO you can rest assured that your investments are held securely. DEGIRO uses a separate legal entity (SPV) to hold your assets. This means they are held separate from the assets of DEGIRO. The sole task of this entity is to administer and safeguard your investments. By law, it cannot perform any commercial activities. In the event that something would happen to DEGIRO, your investments will not be treated as recoverable assets to DEGIRO's creditors and will remain in the safekeeping of the separate entity. This entity will hold your assets with third parties. Where possible or legally required, DEGIRO will require these third parties to provide for asset segregation so as to protect the investments of the clients of DEGIRO against their bankruptcy. Rules with regard to asset segregation are different in every country (both within the EU and outside the EU). If there is no asset segregation in relation to a third party in the custody chain, then the financial instruments held with that third party might be lost in case of the bankruptcy of that party. 

Investor Protection Scheme

The Dutch Investor Protection Scheme (Beleggerscompensatiestelsel) is applicable, as DEGIRO is a licensed investment firm authorised by the Dutch Authority for the Financial Markets (AFM) for the provision of investment services.

Information about the Dutch Investor Protection Scheme can be found in English on the De Nederlandsche Bank (Dutch Central Bank) website here.

Who supervises DEGIRO?

DEGIRO operates under supervision of The Dutch Authority for Financial Markets (AFM). Next to that, the Dutch Central Bank (DNB) offers prudential supervision. DEGIRO is also registered at the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) in the UK under number 595455.

 

One other thing

Degiro recently was sold to Flatex a well known German Broker more info ton that can be found here

https://www.flatex.com/fileadmin/fintech_relaunch/Public/pdf/news/2019/pm/Press_Release_flatex_to_buy_degiro.pdf

 

Different Account Types

 

What is the difference between the Basic and Custody profiles?

When first registering with DEGIRO, you can choose between a Basic and a Custody account.

Basic

A Basic profile provides you with access to all available products and investment services of DEGIRO except Debit Money, Debit Securities and Derivatives. This is the standard account type when you register with DEGIRO. If desired you can change a Basic account to an Active or Trader.

Custody (THIS IS THE ACCOUNT I HAVE)

A Custody profile is different from a Basic profile in that the securities are held separately from the lending pool of DEGIRO clients’ securities and are thus unable to be loaned to third parties.  Debit Money, Debit Securities, and Derivative trading is not available with a Custody profile and you cannot change to an Active, Trader, or Day Trader account. A Custody Profile has different conditions and fees.  However you will still benefit from our low transaction costs and save money through trading with DEGIRO.

 

Then we have BREXIT how will this effect the service 

a message i received via degiro contain this

Important information about Brexit

Dear Investor,

As you may be aware, the UK will leave the European Union on Friday, 31 January 2020. This date marks the beginning of the transitional period scheduled to end on 31 December 2020, during which negotiations on the future relationship between the UK and the EU will take place. The disbandment of the UK from Europe has brought much uncertainty in recent years, and we understand that this raises many questions about how you may be affected as a customer.   

Nothing will change for now 

DEGIRO has been in communication with the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) of The United Kingdom, whereby we will make use of their Temporary Permissions Regime. This means that UK residents will be able to continue using DEGIRO’s services under the current circumstances.

As it stands, nothing will change for now. The current situation does not affect your ability to trade or hold an account with DEGIRO, as negotiations have yet to take place. 


However, should there be any changes in the future that could affect you as a client, DEGIRO has ensured that all the necessary precautions are in place to protect you and your assets.  

 

 

 

[Harley]

5 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Not just an hour on a heli out of Aberdeen or a leisurely drive from Houston any more.

You're probably just a babe me son, just a babe, although maybe better than most that pass as "oilmen" these days!   

Me dad lied about his age, went to a nissan hut at a place called "Heathrow", flew to another nissan hut in the desert in the middle of nowhere called "Kuwait", and started to learn his trade.  A real oil man for decades in every part of the world.  Seen it all, the whole effing lot.  Told me to move on as it was all local talent now and the accountants had taken over.

TBF though, only visited Houston later and acted like he was at Graceland!

[Popuplights]

33 minutes ago, Harley said:

Told me to move on as it was all local talent now and the accountants had taken over.

TBF though, only visited Houston later and acted like he was at Graceland!

It's been good to me too, but yes, the glory days are long gone. My nipper did 2 weeks work experience with me at Fawley refinery. He said he was never going to set foot in a refinery again! 

[DoINeedOne]

23 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Iv been wanting to buy Mitsubishi Chemical Holdings but cant even seem to be able to get the ADR with HL.You would think they would of Tokyo stocks wouldnt you.

 

[Harley]

Been working all day and listening to podcasts.  Sorry guys/gals but we aren't special any more!

This Macrovoices was a good one - is @DurhamBorn actually a Russian who doesn't like holding Beenie Babies?

https://www.macrovoices.com/891-macrovoices-238-alex-gurevich-bond-yields-u-s-dollar-equities-more

[DurhamBorn]

This article has it all,exactly what we want to see at this stage of the cycle.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/investing/article-8775477/Should-ditch-energy-giants-age-oil-ends.html

They make out Shell was sold from biggest to sixth,but in fact they were buying in the £20s not the £10s hence the drop.

Mr Salih thinks instead of BP or Shell you should buy Greencoat UK Wind and owner of a rag bag of small onshore wind farms that will probably be uneconomic once massive offshore wind comes online over the next few years.

I think id prefer BPs tie up with Equinor myself.

[leonardratso]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

This article has it all,exactly what we want to see at this stage of the cycle.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/investing/article-8775477/Should-ditch-energy-giants-age-oil-ends.html

They make out Shell was sold from biggest to sixth,but in fact they were buying in the £20s not the £10s hence the drop.

Mr Salih thinks instead of BP or Shell you should buy Greencoat UK Wind and owner of a rag bag of small onshore wind farms that will probably be uneconomic once massive offshore wind comes online over the next few years.

I think id prefer BPs tie up with Equinor myself.

most of the comments seem to get it.

We might go cuba with the 2nd hand ICE car market, or it might be a kick the can down the road by the time we get to their 'targets', or it could be like that internet porn ban, just a crap idea ending in failure. I especially liked the way most of the big porn sites just ignored it and carried on as normal.

[DurhamBorn]

6 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

most of the comments seem to get it.

We might go cuba with the 2nd hand ICE car market, or it might be a kick the can down the road by the time we get to their 'targets', or it could be like that internet porn ban, just a crap idea ending in failure. I especially liked the way most of the big porn sites just ignored it and carried on as normal.

Cant see the 2030 happening myself,though like you say probably a massive market in keeping cars on the road forever,id help do my bit on that score.

[Hardhat]

30 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

We might go cuba with the 2nd hand ICE car market

Imagine the romance of Cuba's 1950s Cadillacs, but with 2010s Range Rover Evoques... 

[geordie_lurch]

9 minutes ago, Hardhat said:

Imagine the romance of Cuba's 1950s Cadillacs, but with 2010s Range Rover Evoques... 

I doubt the Range Rover Evoques will last as long as those Cadillacs 🤣

[leonardratso]

13 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

I doubt the Range Rover Evoques will last as long as those Cadillacs 🤣

we know the gearboxes wont even last a year.

[Loki]

 

[Harley]

18 hours ago, DoINeedOne said:

In regards to the few posts asking about Degiro please DOYR but some info Degiro.......

Meany thanks for the info.  Very useful.  The piece about accounts was good - maybe I would get both to more securely hold (no lending) my long term investments and an active one for other benefits (derivatives).  Less than impressed with the FCA registration though!  I personally would want to get my money out of their regulatory hands, despite the potential exposure (not that the Dutch are exactly Jonny foreigner villains)!

[StrugglingMillennial]

Is it still worth topping up on physical gold or silver if the price dips? 

[wherebee]

26 minutes ago, StrugglingMillennial said:

Is it still worth topping up on physical gold or silver if the price dips? 

depends on whether you think now is 2011-12, where the price declined slowly in many currencies for years, or whether your currency is one where it will continue to appreciate (see AUD, where the decline in the value of the aussie dollar meant the lucky bastards with gold have done well almost every year since)

edit: included AUD/gold chart as it shows what a weakening currency does

[Harley]

13 minutes ago, StrugglingMillennial said:

Is it still worth topping up on physical gold or silver if the price dips? 

Depends.

[StrugglingMillennial]

7 minutes ago, wherebee said:

depends on whether you think now is 2011-12, where the price declined slowly in many currencies for years, or whether your currency is one where it will continue to appreciate (see AUD, where the decline in the value of the aussie dollar meant the lucky bastards with gold have done well almost every year since)

Thanks for the info.

I still have some cash left over and im looking to spread some around.

[Harley]

1 hour ago, wherebee said:

......(see AUD, where the decline in the value of the aussie dollar meant the lucky bastards with gold have done well almost every year since)

To be more accurate, holders of AUD have done shite rather than gold holders being lucky.  That's fiat for you, especially in an age of printy, something the Aussie central bank likes as much as the best.  As that Russian chap said in Macrovoices (see my post), cash is not a risk free asset.

[Castlevania]

Caesars have offered £2.72 per share for William Hill. I think that materially undervalues the company.

[DurhamBorn]

34 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

Caesars have offered £2.72 per share for William Hill. I think that materially undervalues the company.

I suspect a bidding war for them.Great result for the thread though,about 8x from the bottom and even x3 for people buying when it hit the squid level.Nice to be able to re-allocate the funds to other areas still hated etc.

[DurhamBorn]

@Cattle Prod i think its getting pretty obvious now that the UKs policy has been a disaster.It really has been incredible to watch.When i see all those young partying im like good,the quicker the virus runs through them the better.It will hate it once all those younger people are a barrier to it.They had a chance to let it run over summer while shielding older at risk people,the fact they didnt is crazy.Old fella in the club even said to me he was out and about because if he was going to get it he wanted it in August "not f+cking January",ordinary people nearly always have the common sense answer.

[AWW]

1 hour ago, Cattle Prod said:

Let the young deal with it, get done with it and so stop being vectors for the virus.

This is exactly what we do with chicken pox in the UK. Most other countries vaccinate, but we don’t because kids who miss the vaccination would then be more likely to contract it in later life. We paid for our kids to have the vaccination as it’s a miserable disease and can scar for life.

[DurhamBorn]

This is an older report,but the project is on-going.

https://www.h21.green/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/H21-NoE-PRINT-PDF-FINAL-1.pdf

I think blue hydrogen from gas is certain to be huge (more than the market understands) and so gas prices will move higher through the cycle.Its also likely hydrogen from green energy (mentioned right at the end of the report) will be shipped as ammonia.Gas use with carbon capture should see use keep expanding,not fall as people expect.

Its interesting Australia is mentioned as being a supply of the ammonia,perhaps why BP is moving hard there and probably on blue hydrogen elsewhere.

https://www.ammoniaenergy.org/articles/hydrogen-stands-out-in-bps-new-strategy/

Blue Hydrogen with carbon capture would secure the big integrated oil companies as growth companies.

Hot stocks later in the cycle?,i think so.

 

[JMD]

2 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Just browsing https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ to scratch my stats itch (should I move this to a coronavirus thread?). I like this website because it's not been filtered by a media outlet, and is just the numbers. Here are some interesting things I noticed:

... ... ...

I'm really torn between 'can they be that stupid' and 'they have to be using this as an excuse to print money'. I just don't know! I think it's still worth thinking about this going into winter, as the bat flu is still going to be a big macro driver for the next while.

CP, good info. and analysis - personally I think the 'corona corruption' is valuable macro, and provides a real-time insight into government tactics/propaganda/etc for any future let's say potential financial manipulation/control methods(?) - so i think does belong on here, particularly if it can be discussed with that focus. What do others think? (btw i didn't think (fear!) this way until March this year)

CP, I'd kinda only respond to you where you say '...if it is highly contagious' - but is it? I'm no doctor, but it doesn't seem like Corona is especially contagious to me. 

I'd only add that another big part for me, and makes me very sceptical, is why weren't the UK local authority communicable disease departments not used? The attempted centrally administered track/trace, etc, has turned out to be a government farce. I think Germany/South Africa showed that 'local admin. is best'. And after all it is what the UK regional infrastructure is there for. The Salisbury Novichok poisoning was overseen by them. 

...However, perhaps Novichok is just another awfully apt example of science exageration/being used for cover, i.e. Novachok was supposed to be so very deadly... but the intended Salisbury spy targets survived, and it was others that fell victim two weeks later, and from presumably a lower dose. And Alexei Navalny appears to have made a full recovery, despite having ingested the stuff.