Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[MrXxxx]

9 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Just to let you know there is a good debate on oil supply and demand on this weeks Macrovoices between Eric and Art Berman. Itd be good to know what the hive mind thinks so I won't bias it with my summary.

Beat me to it...well worth a listen...suggests time to get in and out of this trade and why. With this and our `in house` expert (you know who you are) I almost feel I have an unfair advantage over `Joe Public`! :-)

[MrXxxx]

23 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

Beat me to it...well worth a listen...suggests time to get in and out of this trade and why. With this and our `in house` expert (you know who you are) I almost feel I have an unfair advantage over `Joe Public`! :-)

Further, look at slide 13 (worth registering free to get slides as it enriches podcast so much)...real `eye opener` for me regarding macro picture, and why oilies are a long-term play.

[nirvana]

@BobthebuilderI'll chip in with the 'Ecoboost tech' 

the turbo has a couple of pipes that can rust....if they go the whole turbo needs replacing

 

I had a Fiesta 125 with rusty pipes so I offloaded it on the nephew 

I like 3 cylinders; the BM B38 is well impressive and the Citroen/Pug make some good 1.2s as well

When my oilies come good I might treat myself to a Fiesta ST with 1.5 3 cylinder and 200bhp to entertain the big kid in me.....that's after I've bought a couple of ebikes and a motorbike of course 

 

[DurhamBorn]

@5min OCD speculator are those not just knocked in and loctite used? ,should be able to twist them off with plenty of pressure?

[Bobthebuilder]

Thanks @5min OCD speculatormuch appriciated.

So much knowledge on this thread / forum.

[nirvana]

4 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

Is there a right time of day to buy?.

it only really matters if you're 'daytrading'......although Silver gets 'smacked down' on Tuesdays I heard...

And the Gold price gets 'fixed' twice a day apparently....lol

I know a guy who makes a lot of money by trading the break of GBP/USD between 8am and 8:15am......I keep trying it myself but when it 'goes wrong' my bollocks aren't as big as his in order to 'fix it' 

 

[nirvana]

4 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

@5min OCD speculator are those not just knocked in and loctite used? ,should be able to twist them off with plenty of pressure?

I think it's bad design.....Ford were replacing them at first then I think they decided it was gonna cost them too much and just ignored it...big thread here about it https://www.fordownersclub.com/forums/topic/95740-2013-10l-ecoboost-engine-rust-problem/page/20/#comments

[Bricormortis]

Mechanic told me the timing chains are iffy and if they go it writes off the engine, also cracks on the manifold cause big problems.

 

[Shamone]

23 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Id never have one given,but the council estate near me love them,and the electric they use in winter is eye boggling.

Fucking peasants.

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Bricormortis said:

Mechanic told me the timing chains are iffy and if they go it writes off the engine, also cracks on the manifold cause big problems.

 

Sounds like @Bobthebuilder best get his old van back on Monday!  Move if it costs too much in metro land as tbh, it's a bit girlie as far as vans go!  May be OK down in southern metro wokeland with their sandals and lattes but real blokes live up north who need vans to match the size of their hands and cajones.  If it can't take plasterboard, OSB or a mattress (depending on jobs and relationships!) it ain't real.  Plus no good as a campervan later in life, although there is a conversion video on YouTube.

Disclosure:   Me mate the handyman has one and it works well for him but he's trying to keep his head down and can't lift heavy things without breaking them.

[Bobthebuilder]

3 minutes ago, Harley said:

If it can't take plasterboard, OSB

I am to old for all that crap, i fix boilers for a part time living. I only need room for a couple of screw drivers and a multi meter.

To bring it a little bit back on topic (sorry). I am thinking of buying new and try to get it to last this next cycle. Gives me a debt free option through the mess that looks like its heading towards us.Prbably better than sitting in cash in the bank.

[Harley]

7 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

I am to old for all that crap, i fix boilers for a part time living. I only need room for a couple of screw drivers and a multi meter.

To bring it a little bit back on topic (sorry). I am thinking of buying new and try to get it to last this next cycle. Gives me a debt free option through the mess that looks like its heading towards us.Prbably better than sitting in cash in the bank.

B*gger, I've effed that up!!!!  Got a Magnaflow type filter problem (plus now effed shoulder) to deal with!  Grovelling PM to follow!  Yep, I'm buying all I need now, and very tempted to buy a van to convert later, or just straight to an over-priced conversion.  Really seems a good time to get things ready. 

[Bobthebuilder]

2 minutes ago, Harley said:

B*gger, I've effed that up!!!!  Got a Magnaflow type filter problem (plus now effed shoulder) to deal with!  Grovelling PM to follow!  Yep, I'm buying all I need now, and very tempted to buy a van to convert later, or just straight to an over-priced conversion.  Really seems a good time to get things ready. 

If any of the regular posters want any boiler related advice then go ahead and PM me.

[DurhamBorn]

The start of this thread in we predicted outright deflation was possible and it has arrived in many European countries.-2.3% in Greece,minus 1.1% in Ireland,-0.9% in Italy and -0.6% in Spain.

Headline inflation will likely go minus later this year in the Eurozone as whole.The ECB will need to launch at least 500 billion up to a trillion in QE.

In deflation companies dont invest,they rush to cut debt instead and set the seeds for inflation.The amount of liquidity building will see inflation rocket once it is unleashed.Companies need to use this window to structure their debt out and take advantage of the rates.

European banks are pretty much all bust and the amounts sitting in government bonds yielding nothing is incredible.

[DoINeedOne]

What are peoples thoughts on gold royalty companies like Sandstorm?

I currently own a couple of miners outside of a ISA, 2 of which are due to bring the mines into production in Q1 2021 MKO.V & MAI.V

My thinking is rather than be exposed to any issues from just a couple of miners, An idea is come April new tax year new ISA allocation to a royalty companies longe-term

[Noallegiance]

2 hours ago, Shamone said:

Fucking peasants.

In true Dosbodders style, another free pass-time suggestion, ladies and gentlemen.

[Loki]

6 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

In true Dosbodders style, another free pass-time suggestion, ladies and gentlemen.

Where do I get one? 

[leonardratso]

at the pluckers.

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Bobthebuilder said:

If any of the regular posters want any boiler related advice then go ahead and PM me.

I can confirm this to be true!  A good lad......and very forgiving!

[ONC]

Hello all, 

long time lurker on TOS/Dosbods and this thread in particular (read it every day). I am nearly 50 but this thread is an education, hence I Am mainly Happy to read and learn. 

interesting article in FT, NextEra surpasses market cap of ExxonMobil (previous employer briefly). NextEra CEO dismisses Big Oil as a future competitor in renewables. Let’s hope he is very wrong

Clean Energy Group NextEra Surpasses ExxonMobil in marketcap

https://www.ft.com/content/39a70458-d4d1-4a6e-aca6-1d5670bade11

may need to paste link  or article title into google

Like most here getting heavily into big oil (Exxon, bp,  shell, slb), just wish I had more money  to invest this week!!!

From all the other  quiet lurkers, thanks again to all, and please keep up this fantastic  thread.

 

[DoINeedOne]

Some interesting interviews here

Podcast – Oxford Institute for Energy Studies

https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/podcast-oxford-institute-for-energy-studies/id1230521700

[nirvana]

2 hours ago, Harley said:

Plus no good as a campervan later in life

I feel obliged to comment on this as I'm having a 'mental dilemma' myself....

I very nearly fell for the 'van life' fad, in fact I had a brand new Trafic at one stage with very impressive biturbo engine...

Anyway as I see it...

Toilet - bollocks, who wants to have a smelly sh!te in an enclosed space?

Shower - bollocks, especially for most fatties, even skinny blokes like me have trouble washing their arses...

Cooking - ok if it's pishing it down out but wouldn't you rather cook in the open?

Lights - bollocks, get some poratable LEDs at pennies a shot

Electricity - mainly bollocks cos you can get 'power packs' that cost fook all AND charge your toys on the move!!

Bed - aha, that's useful for sleeping and shagging but if you get a 2 second pop up tent that covers that one.......if you're shagging a frustrated married women just remember some extra socks to muffle the groans of delight 

Van heater - yeah that's useful in the cold but to be fair if you're 'camping in the cold' it's not a lot of fun and you're probably best off saving your £20-50k and putting it towards airbnb/hotel etc

'Sitting in a van' - get a life you boring old c0ck! 

Right that's me done, off to talk to the plants 

 

[Democorruptcy]

2 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

If any of the regular posters want any boiler related advice then go ahead and PM me.

Any opinion on Air source heating?

[Bobthebuilder]

15 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Any opinion on Air source heating?

Dont get involved in any of that energy saving stuff, leave that for the plumbers with beards.I have heard good results but not my field.

Generally when in a group of heating guys such as college exams or gas safe meetings the overall opinion is that stuff is just not very good.

I am on topic for once as everyone is saying heat source pumps are the future while the gas industry is currently re-training for Hydrogen. Its not a if, its happening right now.

[JMD]

22 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Canada - yes, it is the one place left in the world with a lot of untapped oil. But it is landlocked. Oil you can't get to market is worthless - just look at the price of WCS versus WTI. With Canada, you have to watch the pipelines being built and when they come on stream.

CIS - Kazakhstan, yes, but it's very expensive there as it's full of sulphur (sour). Needs higher prices. Russia - not dramatically, slow and steady increase still possible.

Africa - in aggregate won't grow from here, as I showed is in clear decline. A lot of gas, though. Nigeria, Algeria and Angola all look to have peaked, Ghana, Uganda and Libya won't make up for that.

Iraq can increase production this cycle, I said 'more to go' I'm not sure how much more. Their giant fields have been sorted out by Western companies, hard to tell how much further they can go up. Their consumption has a lot of catching up to do, though. I think I said Iran can't do much more this cycle: if sanctions are lifted and western companies sort out their giant fields like in Iraq, they can certainly ramp it up, but it will take a few years.

Same goes for Venezuela, except they'll need a complete refit. Guyana is going to be big and will help out.

Look, we're not going to run out of oil and the world will keep turning. It's just take 3-4 years of ~$150 oil (like in 2010-2014) to stimulate all of the above and deep water, along with forcing efficiencies and killing demand in poorer countrues. And it'll stimulate they hydrogen economy too I'm sure. Supply and demand. 

CP, I'm buying more and more into the energy sector, and at current rate it will soon be 25% of my portfolio, and much higher than I ever anticipated it being. So big thank you for answering my questions as it does help me to rationalise what im doing. Most on this blog are I think convinced that energy is a good investment, because it is a hated, uncomplex, reflation stock, but having a more informed view of say the various industry pressure points is also I think valuable to know. So for example production capacity, future demand, reserves, extraction costs. For example Venezuela has I believe the largest reserves but also the highest extraction costs, so currently uneconomic, but all that changes with oil at say 150dollars. None of this of course needs to be known or understood before buying oil shares, some might view this as a form of analysis paralysis, but I take the opposite view, it being part of my DD and 'caveat emptor' philosophy. Anyway thanks again for your knowledgeable replies.