Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Loki]

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[Loki]

33 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

Beg to disagree. The government won't make it compulsory but will leave it to the individuals choice.

However, employers are obliged under the Health & safety Act 1981 to be responsible for every employees well being in the work place, and if they are seen wanting are subject to unlimited fine and potentially corporate manslaughter in the worst case; directors going to prison. This is why companies have been so proactive on Covid measures so far. as a result employers will say to employees you can work here on the condition of vaccination. In addition, to enter other countries the host nation will insist on proof of vaccination; there is a precedent for this already with Yellow Fever vaccination certificates for some countries and/or when pilgrims want to go to the Haj at Mecca.

The choice will be 'on' the individual, you want employment/travel/a life that resembles normality you have the vaccine, you don't and life will be a PITA. As a result, many will 'buckle' and have it unwillingly to conform to society and/or support their families/lifestyles.

Perfect for the 'Nudge' system.  I've always said it will be soft force, not booted thugs kicking people's doors in and jabbing them.

21 minutes ago, wherebee said:

quite possibly.

But our role is to delay, delay, delay for ourselves and our families until the negative impacts start occurring and public outrage grows.  I would bet good money within 5 years there will be horror stories all over the place.  Remember the blood transfusion/AIDS fuckups?  Or the BSE fuckups?  

 

I'm hoping that will be enough too, which all hinges on this vaccine genuinely being nothing more sinister than a rushed job for a bad flu.

[Loki]

1 hour ago, Castlevania said:

Some rare good news from K&S. Shares are up nicely.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-04/k-s-said-to-near-3-billion-sale-of-morton-salt-unit-to-kissner

I was not expecting to see any action from them yet! Now i have 3 in the blue

[Democorruptcy]

UK households will need help paying winter bills, warns supplier

Quote

 

Households hit by the coronavirus crisis are likely to need government support to pay their heating bills this winter, one of Britain’s biggest energy suppliers has warned, as utilities report an uptick in bad debt.

Stephen Fitzpatrick, chief executive of Ovo Energy, now Britain’s third largest supplier, said the government would need to provide a “greater social safety net” to help financially distressed households, as rising unemployment coincides with the season when spending on heating increases as much as 10 times.

So far, energy suppliers report that the number of households struggling to pay their energy bills has remained lower than expected at the start of the pandemic, but companies such as Ovo say there has been a “notable increase” in recent weeks in customers contacting them for help. 

Suppliers are concerned about the pressures the end of the UK government’s £39bn furlough scheme this month will place on the industry at a time when the balance sheets of smaller energy companies in particular can become stretched as they have to pay certain policy costs.

Late last week, the energy market regulator Ofgem threatened to revoke the licences of seven smaller suppliers if they did not pay towards obligatory green energy schemes by the end of this month. About 20 smaller suppliers have gone bust since 2018 in the highly competitive market, which operates on thin margins.

So far, Covid-19 loans have been focused on the suppliers themselves so they can offer payment holidays to customers but this has proved unpopular with many bigger companies, which claim such support is merely propping up poor business models. They would rather see funds go directly to customers. 

Cont...

https://www.hl.co.uk/news/2020/10/5/uk-households-will-need-help-paying-winter-bills-warns-supplier?

 

 

[kibuc]

1 hour ago, MrXxxx said:

This is why companies have been so proactive on Covid measures so far. as a result employers will say to employees you can work here on the condition of vaccination.

Join the Church of First Born and refuse on religious grounds, triggering Equality Act protection.

[Chewing Grass]

8 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

the balance sheets of smaller energy companies in particular can become stretched as they have to pay certain policy costs.

'Certain Policy Costs' - that will be green taxes and other political bullshit such as the 'apprentice levy'.

[Talking Monkey]

5 minutes ago, kibuc said:

Join the Church of First Born and refuse on religious grounds, triggering Equality Act protection.

But if you needed to travel you would be stuck. I wonder if there would be any GPs that would give you a certificate even if you didnt take the thing, i'm sure there are dodgy ones around

[Loki]

19 minutes ago, Talking Monkey said:

But if you needed to travel you would be stuck. I wonder if there would be any GPs that would give you a certificate even if you didnt take the thing, i'm sure there are dodgy ones around

Hat tip to @DurhamBorn's Dad...the silver is for bribing the guards doctors

[Loki]

What are the thread contributors thoughts on the miners at the moment?  I sold HOC at a small profit as I needed some cash to tide me over. I am considering waiting until next year to see if they fall with everything else if the 'bust' materialises (A comment thread from one of David Hunter's latest tweets below)

 

[nirvana]

COME ON! I'm up an ebike on RDSB - do I hold out for the Porker? 

[Loki]

6 minutes ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

do I hold out for the Porker?

I'd say so 

[kibuc]

2 minutes ago, Loki said:

What are the thread contributors thoughts on the miners at the moment?  I sold HOC at a small profit as I needed some cash to tide me over. I am considering waiting until next year to see if they fall with everything else if the 'bust' materialises (A comment thread from one of David Hunter's latest tweets below)

 

Average silver price for Q3 was $24.5/oz, compared to around $17/oz in Q2. 

For gold it's around $1920/oz compared to $1720/oz.

COVID lockdown downtime at theoretical 0, compared to up to 2 months in Q2.

We should have a flood of Q3 production reports coming this week and the next. I'm super excited for the short-term prospects.

[nirvana]

Congrats to K&S holders AND

HORIZONTE ON THE MOVE!!!! My drive isn't big enough for a Lear Jet so I'm going for the hoverbike! 

 

[Loki]

8 minutes ago, kibuc said:

Average silver price for Q3 was $24.5/oz, compared to around $17/oz in Q2. 

For gold it's around $1920/oz compared to $1720/oz.

COVID lockdown downtime at theoretical 0, compared to up to 2 months in Q2.

We should have a flood of Q3 production reports coming this week and the next. I'm super excited for the short-term prospects.

Thanks mate.  That's what I was thinking, earnings season is on the way.  I am debating a short-term play on the Trading 212 app compared to fees and using up ISA allowance on HL.  Your thoughts welcome!

[nirvana]

Just to show I can be 'slightly serious' this is my take on the US crude price....

It couldn't stay above the 42.5 level...'big boys' slapped it down again......

So we need to clear the 42.5 level and when it can clear 49.5 level we're into 'clear airspace' territory....

Anything else is just 'Talking Heads'........So could be time for some 'psycho killer' again 

 

 

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Cattle Prod said:

I thought the same, it's good to hear someone else say it, to check I'm not biased.

If Asia goes back to its 30 year linear trend of consumption growth, it will take ~ 2 years of import growth to cancel out a 10% permanent consumption loss in the USA. I think that's unlikely, but it shows you need to be looking at Asia on the demand side.

This in general is something to be wary about.  I've noticed a fair few commentators become more global in outlook but not all and good data availability can be an issue (or an excuse). 

For example, a fair mention in emerging markets going on.  This has often been a sign of a domestic market top but different this time?  For us in UK we would have been well trashed keeping to the FTSE!

A related angle is using ETFs or their holdings as an investment guide if they are overly US focussed.  I'm currently reviewing some watchlists and now looking at exchanges first and then validating against ETF data second for this very reason.

[Harley]

2 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

Beg to disagree. The government won't make it compulsory but will leave it to the individuals choice.

However, employers are obliged under the Health & safety Act 1981 to be responsible for every employees well being in the work place, and if they are seen wanting are subject to unlimited fine and potentially corporate manslaughter in the worst case; directors going to prison. This is why companies have been so proactive on Covid measures so far. as a result employers will say to employees you can work here on the condition of vaccination. In addition, to enter other countries the host nation will insist on proof of vaccination; there is a precedent for this already with Yellow Fever vaccination certificates for some countries and/or when pilgrims want to go to the Haj at Mecca.

The choice will be 'on' the individual, you want employment/travel/a life that resembles normality you have the vaccine, you don't and life will be a PITA. As a result, many will 'buckle' and have it unwillingly to conform to society and/or support their families/lifestyles.

A bit like they agreed to go back to parliament before any national lockdown to get their last load of shite through on the nod probably knowing they'll just do a series of local lockdowns amounting to the same thing instead!  Do not assume their words mean what you think they do!  IMO, they are untrust worthy as most with their backs to the wall are.  Yes, thread related because what goes here goes for financial regulation or rather not so soft regulation.

[Castlevania]

Do we have a list of elastic band oil and gas stocks? I’ve largely stuck to the majors, but fancy some risk.

[DurhamBorn]

2 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

I thought the same, it's good to hear someone else say it, to check I'm not biased.

If Asia goes back to its 30 year linear trend of consumption growth, it will take ~ 2 years of import growth to cancel out a 10% permanent consumption loss in the USA. I think that's unlikely, but it shows you need to be looking at Asia on the demand side.

 

India petrol use up on a year ago now already and their refineries are expecting to get back up to the 90% range.Diesel down of course.Asia consumption growth will go above trend within 6 months i think as their economies crank up investment.Lag looks very good for early spring unless we get another big whack on the markets as we might,but that would just make sure Asia invested even more

K+S made a big move today,hope you got your wife in in time,if not dont tell her 

[Talking Monkey]

43 minutes ago, Loki said:

What are the thread contributors thoughts on the miners at the moment?  I sold HOC at a small profit as I needed some cash to tide me over. I am considering waiting until next year to see if they fall with everything else if the 'bust' materialises (A comment thread from one of David Hunter's latest tweets below)

 

I just cant see this meltup happening, 4500 on the s&p is nuts

[nirvana]

12 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

Do we have a list of elastic band oil and gas stocks? I’ve largely stuck to the majors, but fancy some risk.

Tullow Oil could double bag looking at charts.....not a holder so DYOR

[nirvana]

8 minutes ago, Talking Monkey said:

I just cant see this meltup happening, 4500 on the s&p is nuts

well there's this

 

[JMD]

30 minutes ago, Talking Monkey said:

But if you needed to travel you would be stuck. I wonder if there would be any GPs that would give you a certificate even if you didnt take the thing, i'm sure there are dodgy ones around

Very dodgy if you include Dr Shipman!!

I'm not being sarcastic either. From my own personal experience i can vouch that there definitely is. My first job back in the 90's i worked for a company that supplied equipment to GP's. The stories from our salesmen were shocking, with gp's asking for double invoicing, etc. I won't mention the ethnic backgrounds of the gp's committing these frauds, but 'in fairness' i would add that the sexual deviant types were all white (yes we had those too). The thing is - in hindsight(?) - all this 'behavior' was so blatant, the gp practice staff seemed aware and it was even suspected by the local health authorities. But this was 25 years ago - different times now (i hope)!!       

...Actually we all know little has changed, GP's and NHS Local 'Trusts'(creepy nomenclature?) scandal/cover-up continues, followed by review and 'lessons learned'. The thing is if this were regularly happening in say the private sector i'm convinced that any tainted company would be forced to close. Btw, this for me isn't about public vs private, its more to do with 'modern-day aristocratic systems' - where power (government) and wealth (huge tax spending) are concentrated. ie in the case of the NHS the individual cannot withdraw their custom (they have no alternative), and there is no outside agency (its all rather incestuous) to properly moderate/correct things. I do admit however that blatant examples like these have pushed me more libertarian. 

[JMD]

Has anyone considered the tech firm MicroStrategy (nasdaq:mstr)? 

It was very profitable for number of years and built a $500M cash reserve. Its stated policy is not to hold cash, so last year it bought approx. 40,000 BTC for average $8k. The company is still profitable with no debt. However, I think the stock is maybe overpriced - but if stock price were to drop, it would at least be a way of picking up cheap exposure to BTC, and in a profitable company.

The other point to make is that other cash rich companies may start doing the same if negative bank rates happen, so worth watching out for perhaps? What do others think?

[leonardratso]

4 minutes ago, JMD said:

Has anyone considered the tech firm MicroStrategy? 

It was very profitable for number of years and built a $500M cash reserve. Its stated policy is not to hold cash, so last year it bought approx. 40,000 BTC for average $8k. The company is still profitable with no debt. However, I think the stock is maybe overpriced - but if stock price were to drop, it would at least be a way of picking up cheap exposure to BTC, and in a profitable company.

The other point to make is that other cash rich companies may start doing the same if negative bank rates happen, so worth watching out for perhaps? What do others think?

sounds reasonable, but thats unreasonable these days.