Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[sancho panza]

24 minutes ago, Loki said:

I was also a bit concerned about how blithely the host mentioned a vaccine.  This whole "The economy will recover when there's a vaccine" is all a bit...putting the economy before people. What if I don't want a vaccine?

I see this more in financial type content and can't help but think they've lost sight of anything but numbers.

 

 

Yeah and -this is going to sound ageist but I'm 50- I'm tending to find the more covid centric people are my age and older.Young people are seeing through the charade a lot more quickly and want to get on with life.The low risks are obvious to anyone who can read and bothers to research it(obviously excludes our Govt)

ANd you get all this 'I wont travel till there's a vaccine' type stuff.For msot young people they don't give a toss-and nor should they.They should live their lives to the full.Looking at the picturtes from china  @DoINeedOne psoted the other day,the CHinese are already at it.

This is a problem as the commentarati are chock full of 50+ people who appear to be scared witless by a fatlity rate that's below the suicide count or road traffic death if you're under 50

[Chewing Grass]

and you are going from a very simple energy system to one of vast complexity.

[Bobthebuilder]

2 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Bob,question here.When we're tlaking electric vehicles and green enrgy,what you're syaing(please in laymans terms) is that if we went to electric for everyhthing in the hosue,we'd need a shedload more pwoer stations and that the current i nfrastructure can handle it.

Yes, to go all electric we have to re wire the country and every house. Hydrogen will go down the same pipes, meters, regulators and appliances we already have with a lot less modification, none for most modern stuff.

Its so in your face its a no brainer to me.

[Loki]

Just now, Bobthebuilder said:

Yes, to go all electric we have to re wire the country and every house. Hydrogen will go down the same pipes, meters, regulators and appliances we already have with a lot less modification, none for most modern stuff.

Its so in your face its a no brainer to me.

@DurhamBorn do you think hydrogen fuel cells could be refilled at home if the pipes are capable of handling pure hydrogen? (Embrittlement, leaks)

[Chewing Grass]

Just now, Loki said:

@DurhamBorn do you think hydrogen fuel cells could be refilled at home if the pipes are capable of handling pure hydrogen? (Embrittlement, leaks)

No, because you would need an inflammable gas compressor and that comes with a whole host or regulations and issues including ATEX and Pressure Systems to name just 2.

[Castlevania]

25 minutes ago, Loki said:

I was also a bit concerned about how blithely the host mentioned a vaccine.  This whole "The economy will recover when there's a vaccine" is all a bit...putting the economy before people. What if I don't want a vaccine?

I see this more in financial type content and can't help but think they've lost sight of anything but numbers.

 

 

This assumes it’s possible to create a vaccine. Off the top of my head there’s no vaccine for the common cold; AIDS; dengue fever or malaria. 

[Loki]

1 minute ago, Chewing Grass said:

No, because you would need an inflammable gas compressor and that comes with a whole host or regulations and issues including ATEX and Pressure Systems to name just 2.

Shame, filling stations are so tedious! Thanks though.

1 minute ago, Castlevania said:

This assumes it’s possible to create a vaccine. Off the top of my head there’s no vaccine for the common cold; AIDS; dengue fever or malaria. 

That too - although I don't mind them dealing with intangibles seeing as they're numbers people.  I just find the clamouring for it a bit much.

[sancho panza]

6 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

This assumes it’s possible to create a vaccine. Off the top of my head there’s no vaccine for the common cold; AIDS; dengue fever or malaria. 

I suspect they'll rush one out.I won't be taking it.Rushed vaccines never good vaccines.

[Bobthebuilder]

40 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Have you considered an estate car Bob.Silly question but when you put the back seats down you can get loads in.

Yes, but i like to be proffesional. If you call out a expensive plumber you dont expect them to turn up on a bicycle eh?

[sancho panza]

Interestiing slides from the macrovoices deck.Well the ones that intrigued me.

[DurhamBorn]

Young people will go back to normal very quickly,followed by older people.In my teens i was bombarded with adverts about AIDS to the point it used to put you off your crispy pancake tea,but as soon as Sharon gave me the eye in a bar in Ibiza we were at it on the beach and wild horses couldnt of stopped me.The call of the wild is far stronger than some government scare campaign.

Funny thing was years later i actually worked on drugs (azidothymidine) that actually pretty much eliminated AIDS.Human nature isnt to waste away scared,its to experience and taste life.

[Harley]

5 hours ago, sancho panza said:

This is a problem as the commentarati are chock full of 50+ people who appear to be scared witless by a fatlity rate that's below the suicide count or road traffic death if you're under 50

Good point.  Something else to add to the Covid implications list?  Accelerating the trend or a catalyst for a material shift in power and influence from one generation to the other.  They will either need to give way here and elsewhere or double down and fight their corner and suppress any generational baton passing.  This is why extrapolating the past may not be the best approach for roadmapping the future at what is a turning.

[Harley]

5 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Yes, to go all electric we have to re wire the country and every house. Hydrogen will go down the same pipes, meters, regulators and appliances we already have with a lot less modification, none for most modern stuff.

Its so in your face its a no brainer to me.

Three phase supplies, etc?  They can't even willingly upgrade broadband properly (rural, semi rural, fibre to cabinet only, etc)!  But then maybe a time for a Roosevelt (infrastructure) or Kennedy (space) type effort on such infrastructure?

[Harley]

5 hours ago, Castlevania said:

This assumes it’s possible to create a vaccine. Off the top of my head there’s no vaccine for the common cold; AIDS; dengue fever or malaria. 

A non-vaccine vaccine will be used as a face saving cop-out and a way of continued control?  I'm not sure its efficacy is that relevant given what's going on!  

[Harley]

So the oil price/energy sector discussion seems mainly one of timing.  And not that long either way.  Really not relevant for me as a investor, especially as where we are equity price wise.  And given the possibility of a quick and sharp reversal followed by a painful wall of worry to buy into later.

PS: My only concern is that we are indeed in a WEF/Davos conspiracy and things will stay locked down until we reach a new green based normal, amongst many other things, under the less than "benevolent" guide of "them".  That's becoming a less extreme hypothesis as each month of government/administrative "nonsense" passes and I struggle to make sense of it all.

[Harley]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Young people will go back to normal very quickly,followed by older people.In my teens i was bombarded with adverts about AIDS to the point it used to put you off your crispy pancake tea,but as soon as Sharon gave me the eye in a bar in Ibiza we were at it on the beach and wild horses couldnt of stopped me.The call of the wild is far stronger than some government scare campaign.

Funny thing was years later i actually worked on drugs (azidothymidine) that actually pretty much eliminated AIDS.Human nature isnt to waste away scared,its to experience and taste life.

One of my military analogies,... You're taught it's a death sentence if you submit to a siege mentality.  Maintaining momentum is key else you lose cohesion, effectiveness, discipline, etc and end up with a rabble.  That's why patrols are so important in addition to any intel, etc they deliver.  The temporary easing of lockdown may have been part of that but that really was just a bit of R&R that does nothing more than that to progress the fight (indeed what fight!).  That's where true leaders stand out (you can viserally begin to see their importance at vaccous times like now) and the behind the lines, cosy mess based generals are cursed for eternity.  Boris and his court of technocrats, for all their apeing, are no Churchill's, Montgomery's, etc.  Or are they up to no good (see, it's starting!).

[Harley]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Young people will go back to normal very quickly,followed by older people.In my teens i was bombarded with adverts about AIDS to the point it used to put you off your crispy pancake tea,but as soon as Sharon gave me the eye in a bar in Ibiza we were at it on the beach and wild horses couldnt of stopped me.The call of the wild is far stronger than some government scare campaign.

Funny thing was years later i actually worked on drugs (azidothymidine) that actually pretty much eliminated AIDS.Human nature isnt to waste away scared,its to experience and taste life.

What, is it finally safe to come out now!  

[Harley]

5 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Yes, but i like to be proffesional. If you call out a expensive plumber you dont expect them to turn up on a bicycle eh?

One mega rich boss of mine used to drive a banger to see clients.  It all went downhill when he bought a Jag! 

[nirvana]

11 hours ago, Harley said:

I thought you lived in a castle, sir!

Nope I live in the woods 

I find tech and 'energy' fascinating too

I used to pay circa £2500 a year for gas and electricity.......now I pay less than £300/year for leccy, buggar all for gas and burn 'free wood' mainly........interesting how much 'free water' is out there too 

And heating water using leccy is OK if you do it with cheap leccy overnight.....

It's all about your attitude and your lifestyle and not believing all the shite they tell you on the TV or on youtube....

On the other hand 

 

PS post some links of your fave 'van man'.......I like a good laugh when I hear how they 'shit in a bag' then wonder how they're going to get rid of it 

[nirvana]

6 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Yes, but i like to be proffesional. If you call out a expensive plumber you dont expect them to turn up on a bicycle eh?

I'd be well impressed if I called out a 'pro' and they turned up on a bike!

If fact I'd give her (I mean him) an extra tip and an extra choccy biscuit for the ride home!

If it was an ebike with a mid drive I'd be slobbering all over it 

[Bobthebuilder]

2 hours ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

I'd be well impressed if I called out a 'pro' and they turned up on a bike!

If fact I'd give her (I mean him) an extra tip and an extra choccy biscuit for the ride home!

If it was an ebike with a mid drive I'd be slobbering all over it 

Used to be a firm of handymen on bikes in London a few years ago. Nice bikes loaded up with panniers etc for tools. You dont see them anymore went bust, all the bikes got nicked.

[Tingles]

Sunday morning food for thought.

COVID-19 = THE CRISIS = THE GREAT RESET (to a Digital Economy) = THE FOURTH INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION

"Never let a good crisis go to waste"

 

 

Retail example:

Similar vids for Healthcare, Manufacruing and Smart Cities here:

https://www.lumen.com/en-us/about/4th-industrial-revolution.html

Cryptos as a currency, as an asset class, as a payment method and as transactional architechture complement the above move to a digital economy.  Some may argue that cryptos take humanity out of equation.

[jamtomorrow]

9 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Yes, to go all electric we have to re wire the country and every house. Hydrogen will go down the same pipes, meters, regulators and appliances we already have with a lot less modification, none for most modern stuff.

Its so in your face its a no brainer to me.

+1 - gas for domestic heating is the only sane solution for forseeable.

BEVs for personal transport is the other no-brainer - grid and generating capacity are over-supplied at night so the logistical fit is almost perfect, and practically lossless compared to hydrogen where you lose energetic work potential at almost every step.

The only way I can see hydrogen getting a look in here is if trends in battery costs or charging rates for rapids (when you need to fill up while you're out and about) hit a glass floor.

No sign of either so far e.g. BP now rolling out 150kw rapids: https://bpchargemaster.com/bp-chargemaster-installs-londons-first-150kw-ultra-fast-charging-hub/

150kw is enough to charge at 600mph on most EVs (equivalent rate for forecourt petrol pump running 30L/minute would be 20,000mph by my reckoning).

Where hydrogen gets interesting for transport is LGVs, HGVs, PSVs, and especially long haulage. 500 miles a day, 10 mpg equivalent would need something like a 1MWh battery. I make that ~ $150,000 at today's prices - prohibitively expensive, probably prohibitively large/heavy too.

And to charge 1MWh in the 15h between stints would be ~60kw - that's about the same as one of today's rapids. Unimaginable that the average haulier is going to be able to stump up one rapid charger per vehicle.

Summary: hydrogen is the only show in town at the heavy end, but it hasn't a snowflake's chance in hell at the light end. What's interesting is where, exactly, the crossover point settles.

[DoINeedOne]

Posted this before i think

But always like the idea of the bikes they have in Asia as far as i know you pay a monthly fee

You have battery like vending machines scattered around

You put in your dying batteries and it gives you fully charge ones so simple and quick

 

[DurhamBorn]

@jamtomorrow i think thats probably right,hydrogen will likely be used for 20% into the gas grid,heavy duty trucks,but also for industry power,including power for some power stations.Blue hydrogen might prove a bigger winner than people expect.

An interesting contrarian way to look at EV charging is that though its getting very quick,its still say 10 minutes,and that opens up the fact the garage has a captive audience for 10 minutes to flog them something else.Half of margin already comes from the shops in a higher end garage with convenience offerings.Its highly likely this will be pushed higher.