Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Loki]

3 minutes ago, Boon said:

Why would gold dump as well?

I think because the DXY went up, I assume it's currency going back into the dollar if "inflationary" fears (Theirs not ours) are on hold as the stimulus is delayed

[nirvana]

7 minutes ago, Boon said:

Trump should have spent the cash

What cash? The boomers nicked all the cash, there is none, gone, we're reliant on this guy....

Gold dumps when the market does...it's a shit market anyway, manipulated to fook, somebody doesn't want it above 1900 at the mo......

 

[DurhamBorn]

Short term political noise will not even register as a blip over the cycle.Powell and the thoughts of the Fed are what count and he and they are telling anyone who will listen they want inflation above trend.

Delayed fiscal support now is more later.The road ahead is in motion.Relax and let the cycle play out.Dollar is going to 90,down not up.It will whipsaw people on the way down.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/powell-says-u-s-economy-needs-more-fiscal-support-11601995205?mod=mw_latestnews

[nirvana]

Bears won the day....that's what happens when you get too carried away....market always there to teach you a lesson...

Amen and goodnight

 

[nirvana]

Markets don't like this at all, big dumps going down all around........

Silver's having a right shit as well.....

[dgul]

1 hour ago, Loki said:

Latest DH podcast

https://contrarianpod.com/content/podcasts/season2/david-hunter-the-real-melt-up-is-still-ahead-of-us/

DH may well be correct about the bigger picture, but his timing really is extraordinary.

[Bricks & Mortar]

1 hour ago, UnconventionalWisdom said:

@DurhamBorn thanks for your great insights over the past few years. It really is because you and the other contributors that I got into investing and am fancinated by the macro play as well as how that affects people and politics. Your dollar calls are scarily good and the fact they were talking about infrastructure improvements to reflate the economy made me apprecite this thread as a crystal ball. 

I have been investing in both ISA and LISA but stayed in my company pension (NEST). After they have turned their back on oil and energy it was the final straw and I've opted to get out- again hat-tip for keeping up with the news and bringing it to the thread. I'm a big cog at a small SME so my employer is happy to make the same contribution to the SIPP I'll set up. 

I just wanted to check with the hive whether they are happy with Hargreaves Landsdown with their offerings/platform fees etc? 

I have my LISA with AJ Bell and ISA with Freetrade and figure it's best to spread investments accross different providers to minimise risk if one goes bust. Not at the 85k limit but expect to be in a few years.

How did you go about getting out of NEST?  I was thinking to do same.  Do you go to your employer, or do you go to NEST?  Was it a prerequisite to set up a SIPP first?

 

 

 

[UnconventionalWisdom]

8 minutes ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

How did you go about getting out of NEST?  I was thinking to do same.  Do you go to your employer, or do you go to NEST?  Was it a prerequisite to set up a SIPP first?

 

 

 

First talk to your employer as it will notify them when you hit the stop contributions button. With me I just said are you happy to make the same contributions but to a SIPP. Boss was like, "no problem, I think I have to anyway". 

I think they don't have to as the only requirement is offering a workplace pension. If you choose to go out, they can say, ok so you won't get our contribution. (I think they aren't required). 

If you log into your account you can click on the manage my contributions and then hit the "stop contributions" button.

https://www.nestpensions.org.uk/schemeweb/memberhelpcentre/contributions/stop-contributions.html

 

After it is stopped you can then open a SIPP and follow the instructions on transferring it in from the SIPP providers site. They tend to all use origo to make the process easy- just need the old provider's name & address, account number and approx pension value. 

It will then take about 4 weeks to transfer over.

[nirvana]

16 minutes ago, dgul said:

DH may well be correct about the bigger picture, but his timing really is extraordinary.

He's a macro strategist trying to make 'daytrader' calls......bonkers.....he should keep off twatter for starters

 

[UnconventionalWisdom]

16 minutes ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

How did you go about getting out of NEST?  I was thinking to do same.  Do you go to your employer, or do you go to NEST?  Was it a prerequisite to set up a SIPP first?

 

 

 

And no, you don't need to do it before opening a SIPP but obviously good to stop contributions and get the ball rolling on the transfer. 

[dgul]

5 minutes ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

He's a macro strategist trying to make 'daytrader' calls......bonkers.....he should keep off twatter for starters

 

Well, I suppose he is a contrarian -- I'm sure that you could make money by simply trading the opposite of his suggestion on the day he makes it and closing a few days later.

[leonardratso]

haha, my loaf is now a slice. Got to laugh, its only money, easy come easy go.

 

[nirvana]

marvellous leonard, the old ones are the best! 

[Noallegiance]

Trump's extended comments seem to indicate that he's willing to hold the country to ransom. No stimulus 'until after I win'.

Top bloke.

[Hardhat]

25 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

Trump's extended comments seem to indicate that he's willing to hold the country to ransom. No stimulus 'until after I win'.

Top bloke.

Meanwhile in the UK:

Boris Johnson’s bold new vision for offshore wind to power every home in the UK by 2030 would require almost £50bn in investment and the equivalent of one turbine to be installed every weekday for the whole of the next decade.

The huge investment, calculated by Aurora Energy Research, an Oxford-based consultancy, would increase the UK’s offshore wind power capacity by four times what it is today, to reach 40GW by 2030.

 

Fire up the printing presses, we've got windmills to build

[leonardratso]

11 minutes ago, Hardhat said:

Meanwhile in the UK:

Boris Johnson’s bold new vision for offshore wind to power every home in the UK by 2030 would require almost £50bn in investment and the equivalent of one turbine to be installed every weekday for the whole of the next decade.

The huge investment, calculated by Aurora Energy Research, an Oxford-based consultancy, would increase the UK’s offshore wind power capacity by four times what it is today, to reach 40GW by 2030.

 

Fire up the printing presses, we've got windmills to build

to buy from siemens

[wherebee]

4 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

Trump's extended comments seem to indicate that he's willing to hold the country to ransom. No stimulus 'until after I win'.

Top bloke.

yeah, massive miscalculation in my view.  It's the most washington like thing he has done - fucked the country because he wants a political timed result.  I wonder if those meds are, indeed, affecting his judgement.

[MvR]

1 hour ago, wherebee said:

yeah, massive miscalculation in my view.  It's the most washington like thing he has done - fucked the country because he wants a political timed result.  I wonder if those meds are, indeed, affecting his judgement.

Don't forget Trump's negotiating technique. Start out by saying something extreme, then wind it back to the desired result. 4D chess and all that.

[Majorpain]

7 hours ago, leonardratso said:

to buy from siemens

At that sort of scale there should be a UK supplier with a very minimal foreign buy in on parts, they are talking of one wind turbine a day for the next 10 years which is insane!  By 2030 the older models should be needing replacement as well, so there is as a steady churn of work.

[MrXxxx]

7 hours ago, Hardhat said:

Meanwhile in the UK:

Boris Johnson’s bold new vision for offshore wind to power every home in the UK by 2030 would require almost £50bn in investment and the equivalent of one turbine to be installed every weekday for the whole of the next decade.

The huge investment, calculated by Aurora Energy Research, an Oxford-based consultancy, would increase the UK’s offshore wind power capacity by four times what it is today, to reach 40GW by 2030.

 

Fire up the printing presses, we've got windmills to build

Does anyone take anything he says seriously now?...the guys a dreamer who thrives on deflecting the publics attention from the `balls up` he makes of everything he does, which explains why he has only ever found employment in politics and journalism.

[Harley]

35 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

Does anyone take anything he says seriously now?...the guys a dreamer who thrives on deflecting the publics attention from the `balls up` he makes of everything he does, which explains why he has only ever found employment in politics and journalism.

Yet another awful one.  A good poster child for our hopeless administration (including seemingly every public service and beyond) which has been stress tested and found to be beyond contempt.  Hidden until now during an apparent benign period of spin but now so exposed, taking to trying to hide behind printed money.

Windmills are the latest scam to transfer money from the poor to the already rich via energy costs, build costs, running (e.g. debt) costs, and subsidies.  I take that bit seriously.  But what does it mean, and how much, for the macro investing trends?  O&G not going away soon but maybe better to buy companies under less "woke" pressure?  Supply crunches as reality hits and just with any transition?  The growth of alternatives to the alternatives?!...........

[Castlevania]

4 minutes ago, Harley said:

Windmills are the latest scam to transfer money from the poor to the already rich via energy costs, build costs, running (e.g. debt) costs, and subsidies.  I take that bit seriously.  But what does it mean, and how much, for the macro investing trends?  O&G not going away soon but maybe better to buy companies under less "woke" pressure?  Supply crunches as reality hits and just with any transition?  The growth of alternatives to the alternatives?!...........

The Keynes “beauty contest”. Pick not what you think is the best/prettiest but what you think everyone else will regard as the best/prettiest.

[kibuc]

11 hours ago, Loki said:

Stimulus talks have been called off

Markets still haven't learned that Trump's tweets have life expectancy shorter than a puddle of piss on hot tarmac. The GREATEST EVER support for WONDERFUL American families can be easily announced a few hours later...

Edit: Mwahahaha, seriously didn't see that one before posting!

 

[SpectrumFX]

17 minutes ago, Harley said:

Yet another awful one.  A good poster child for our hopeless administration (including seemingly every public service and beyond) which has been stress tested and found to be beyond contempt.  Hidden until now during an apparent benign period of spin but now so exposed, taking to trying to hide behind printed money.

Windmills are the latest scam to transfer money from the poor to the already rich via energy costs, build costs, running (e.g. debt) costs, and subsidies.  I take that bit seriously.  But what does it mean, and how much, for the macro investing trends?  O&G not going away soon but maybe better to buy companies under less "woke" pressure?  Supply crunches as reality hits and just with any transition?  The growth of alternatives to the alternatives?!...........

 

[Hardhat]

Re: windmills, what is interesting to me is that the politicians are even talking about it tbh. I don't think there has been another time in the past when a prime minister has even hinted at wanting to do such a massive infrastructure investment. Sure, Boris could be (and is) full of hot air, but if he is saying publicly that we want to power every home with windmills, it means that they are taking about it behind the scenes in government. Whether we actually get the windmills or not, the government is priming for direct investment into the country. 

I would have preferred Corbyn's 120 million trees or whatever it was, personally. Henry VIII cut down all our trees to beat the Spanish and it's about time the powers that be let us have them back