Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time

[Frank Hovis]

21 hours ago, JoeDavola said:

I think as well as dual incomes, there is also the factor of intergenerational wealth often staying in housing.

My parents generation were the first where most bought their house, their parents generation often rented, so many of them inherited nothing.

Now many people will inherit part of the HPI of one or even two generations, and I think in many cases will plough all that money straight back into housing.

There is also a further contraction of supply via the migrant ghettos that are cropping up across the UK, these used to be for working class folk or even starter homes for middle class, but you will get white flight from these areas and increased competition to live in areas that are 'expensive enough' where this problem isn't visible.

It's far more complex than just 'average house price'.

 

There used to be the claim that "house prices are set at the margins" but I think that no longer holds because of the reasons that you note above combined with the very limited supply that means when a house comes up at a fair price it sells in short order unless there is an issue with it; usually that it needs extensive renovation and most people don't want to take that on.

It may be a product of my age but the great majority of people I know have zero or tiny mortgages and they are all, bar one, not looking to move so the pool of houses likely to come to market is small.

[Don Coglione]

1 hour ago, Boon said:

If they have mentioned the rental value it doesn't sound like a place to live in, more as an investment. And maybe more of a holiday let rather than a long-term one if you are quoting price per week.

The yield isn't very good straight up but after voids, maintenance and tax becomes terrible.

Truth is many people had also done the same over the years but seemed to look smart because of capital appreciation. Not sure where that's gonna come from if rates don't go back to 0.

 

Rents are always quoted per week in Australia.

[spygirl]

23 hours ago, JoeDavola said:

I think as well as dual incomes, there is also the factor of intergenerational wealth often staying in housing.

My parents generation were the first where most bought their house, their parents generation often rented, so many of them inherited nothing.

Now many people will inherit part of the HPI of one or even two generations, and I think in many cases will plough all that money straight back into housing.

There is also a further contraction of supply via the migrant ghettos that are cropping up across the UK, these used to be for working class folk or even starter homes for middle class, but you will get white flight from these areas and increased competition to live in areas that are 'expensive enough' where this problem isn't visible.

It's far more complex than just 'average house price'.

Go back to one of my comments, right near the start of this thread.

Mortgages became mass market between ~early 70s and early 80s.

Then you had the boost caused by endowment/MIRAS in the 80s. The wheels came off this in the 2000s as the endowments went belly up.

The 200s boom was caused by IO mortgages and idiots piing into IO BTL, as well as the huge migrants imports.

Increase IRs, set hurdles/charge deny migrants bennies. Poof! All goes. And this is coming.

Also posted - 

Census 2022: Scarborough's population is ageing and has risen by just seven in last decade, new data reveals

Scarborough's population is ageing and has risen slightly in the last ten years, the latest official census data has revealed.

https://www.thescarboroughnews.co.uk/news/people/census-2022-scarboroughs-population-is-ageing-and-has-risen-by-just-seven-in-last-decade-new-data-reveals-3755877

This is the borough, about 100k.

Massive number of  BTL in Scabby, massive nubmer of FHL in Whitby, massive number of single mums from elsewhere.

Figures published by the Office for National Statistics show there were 29,900 people aged 65 and over living in Scarborough on census day last year – up from 25,320 in 2011 when the census was last carried out.

It means the proportion of over-65s living in the area rose over the last decade – from 23.3 per cent to 27.5 per cent.

To make the maths easy, call that 30% OAPs.

Ina 10y period ~50% of the 65+ will die.

That means theres probably  going  to be ~10%-15% of housing stock up for probate in the 10y, ~1%-2% a year.

(yes I know not all OAPS are OO, just make the maths easy).

I dont reckons the number of young FTB hits triple figures in a year.

Id love to know but the stats dont go into that detail.

Ditto the number of mortgages are only recorded for Yorks n Humber, which is a population of ~6m.

There is not he jobs ,earnings and finances to transact the probates, the IO BTL being sold and the FHL exiting.

And people, a whole, are grossly over invested - or worse borrowed, for housing.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[JoeDavola]

45 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Increase IRs, set hurdles/charge deny migrants bennies. Poof! All goes. And this is coming.

So you are predicting a significant IR rise (say to 7-ish%), and a complete reversal of what both conservative and labour governments have done over the last 15 years where migrants won't be able to get benefits any more, presumably to the point where gimmegrants wont want to flock to the UK?

What have you seen in any of the gov's behaviour to date that would suggest they will do that?

45 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Ina 10y period ~50% of the 65+ will die.

That means theres probably  going  to be ~10%-15% of housing stock up for probate in the 10y, ~1%-2% a year.

My folks have been looking for a house for two years. They've finally found somewhere and fingers crossed will go sale agreed next week.

One of the reasons it took them so long to find somewhere was that so many houses they visited were in such bad states of repair. It spoke volumes that even though the people bought these houses at literally fractions of what they were selling them for now, they hadn't been able to look after them and they needed a hefty 5 figures spent in many cases.

I guess because this has gone on so long, I can't see a big drop where that £300K house in a good area near some good schools will be £150 in 3 years, but I can see a market where the stereotypical 'boomer' detached in bad state of repair that's on for a lot really struggles to attract anyone - a case of "sorry mate nobody wants to pay £250K for your knackered old house".

There are lots of examples of such houses in a wee town called Whitehead I was considering buying in in NI before deciding it was too remote and the average age of resident seemed to be about 60...there's a handful of houses listed there that will seem dirt cheap to folk from the south of England, but they're just sitting on the market nobody wants them:

https://www.propertypal.com/12-brooklands-drive-whitehead/760265

https://www.propertypal.com/11-donegall-crescent-whitehead-carrickfergus/757671

https://www.propertypal.com/81-donegall-avenue-whitehead/753688

https://www.propertypal.com/70-raw-brae-road-with-c2-acre-adjoining-field-whitehead-carrickfergus/714668/slideshow/photo-4

However if you think prices are going to collapse across the board, why not sell your current house and rent for the next 3 years while they collaps?

Edited July 16, 2022 by JoeDavola

[JoeDavola]

3 hours ago, Frank Hovis said:

There used to be the claim that "house prices are set at the margins" but I think that no longer holds because of the reasons that you note above combined with the very limited supply that means when a house comes up at a fair price it sells in short order unless there is an issue with it; usually that it needs extensive renovation and most people don't want to take that on.

It may be a product of my age but the great majority of people I know have zero or tiny mortgages and they are all, bar one, not looking to move so the pool of houses likely to come to market is small.

None of my peers in their late 30's are looking to move; the jump in prices mean it's not worth it and the inflation happening in the essentials means that the last thing they want is more debt. These are folk of an age where they would traditionally 'move up the ladder'.

The only reason that my folks are looking to move is cause they went and bought a house with a ridiculous amount of stairs and want something more manageable in their 70's, otherwise they wouldn't be moving.

When you think about it, it makes sense. Moving house is expensive and a massive pain in the arse. If someone has a house they like they'll sit tight.

So I don't actually see there being a flood of decent houses coming on the market any time soon. Maybe a slight increase that spygirl mentions because of boomers dying over the next 15 years, but not a flood.

The market is now segmented so much into Airbnb's. HMO slums, second holiday homes, migrant ghettos that white people don't want to live in, and finally good old fashioned owner occupier houses. Maybe a proper recession might cause airbnb's and second homes to collapse.

But I get the impression that if you want say a 3 bed semi in a decent area within walking distance of some decent schools; there's always going to be a shortage of such houses.

I can't predict what will happen with the bigger houses. Rationally they should start to be seen as liabilities, but then again people have always been status seeking and there'll always be plenty of wives nagging their husbands to buy the big house for her to show off to her frenemies. My uncle worked himself into an early grave buying and maintaining such a house and his wife has been spending his pension in the 11 years since he passed holding her dinner parties and travelling the world.

Edited July 16, 2022 by JoeDavola

[spygirl]

18 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

So you are predicting a significant IR rise (say to 7-ish%), and a complete reversal of what both conservative and labour governments have done over the last 15 years where migrants won't be able to get benefits any more, presumably to the point where gimmegrants wont want to flock to the UK?

What have you seen in any of the gov's behaviour to date that would suggest they will do that?

My folks have been looking for a house for two years. They've finally found somewhere and fingers crossed will go sale agreed next week.

One of the reasons it took them so long to find somewhere was that so many houses they visited were in such bad states of repair. It spoke volumes that even though the people bought these houses at literally fractions of what they were selling them for now, they hadn't been able to look after them and they needed a hefty 5 figures spent in many cases.

I guess because this has gone on so long, I can't see a big drop where that £300K house in a good area near some good schools will be £150 in 3 years, but I can see a market where the stereotypical 'boomer' detached in bad state of repair that's on for a lot really struggles to attract anyone - a case of "sorry mate nobody wants to pay £250K for your knackered old house".

There are lots of examples of such houses in a wee town called Whitehead I was considering buying in in NI before deciding it was too remote and the average age of resident seemed to be about 60...there's a handful of houses listed there that will seem dirt cheap to folk from the south of England, but they're just sitting on the market nobody wants them:

https://www.propertypal.com/12-brooklands-drive-whitehead/760265

https://www.propertypal.com/11-donegall-crescent-whitehead-carrickfergus/757671

https://www.propertypal.com/81-donegall-avenue-whitehead/753688

https://www.propertypal.com/70-raw-brae-road-with-c2-acre-adjoining-field-whitehead-carrickfergus/714668/slideshow/photo-4

However if you think prices are going to collapse across the board, why not sell your current house and rent for the next 3 years while they collaps?

I dont thing IR will go up massively, thy will rise to ~4%, and mortgage APR to ~7%-8%

Thats enough to take out all the people whove swallowing up extra houses.

I dont think migrants will be forcibly kicked out. Theyll fuck off when bennies stop and bill arrives.

 I think all access to benefits bar JSA and made to paid for public services i.e schooling is coming. UKGOV is short of cash, migrants cost them, they dont vote.

Why do I think this? Simply - they need the cash - or avoid spending it.

 

 

 

[JoeDavola]

1 minute ago, spygirl said:

I dont thing IR will go up massively, thy will rise to ~4%, and mortgage APR to ~7%-8%

I should have specified when I said IR I actually meant the average cost of a mortgage.

If the average person is paying 8% interest on their mortgage this changes everything.

To the point where I'll be shocked in they let that happen. But maybe they wont have the choice.

[spygirl]

Its the imbalance between 65+ dying, selling or downsizing, and the number of ~25-50s being able to buy.

 

There has been unexpected behaviour since 2007 and all that.

After 2007, some of the over leveraged was shook out and sold up went bust.

Then there was ZIRP and moving to IO mortgage, which allowed people to sit in hous9ng they could not afford.

The the whole hanging onto  houses - cos IRs are low, and hosing goes up - rent it out.

Locally, housing sales collapsed after 2007. Thats not what expected - they should have gone up.

However, and this is where it is interesting, since the BE started putting rates up, the number of listings is going up massively.

For ~15y, houses have been dripping onto the market, hanging around , then being taken off.

And people have been ramping up their exposure to hosing - BTL, FHL etcs.

Since 21Q3 theres been ~5x the amount being listed.

 

 

 

 

[spygirl]

7 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

I should have specified when I said IR I actually meant the average cost of a mortgage.

If the average person is paying 8% interest on their mortgage this changes everything.

To the point where I'll be shocked in they let that happen. But maybe they wont have the choice.

Theyll pay ~8% on their mortgage, or 5k on their utilities.

 

Pissing around, keeping rates low is increasing inflation.

The UK economy and prices just doesn't work like the BoE assumes. They are moron.

The relation before - UK has always hadto set rates ~1% higher than the FED, is much stronger now, that the FED basically sets Chinas IR too.

And that ~30 year period, of ever increasing labour and exports, staring when the USSR blew up, followed by China joining WT in 2010, is over.

 

 

[mh9000]

On 11/07/2022 at 13:47, JoeDavola said:

Frightening when you look at how much a small jump will cost you over the entire term of the mortgage.

1.5% raise costs you an extra 45K over a 25 years for £180K.

But I'd guess to start off with people can just suck this up it just means less money to spend in other parts of the economy.

I noticed the same,  although personally I haven't really seen much change in house prices yet from sub 2% mortgages rates you could get last year, that was also about £150 a month jump on a similar mortgage amount. Maybe slightly less frenzied than last year just 10 viewings instead of 30+...

Maybe not realistic (of me) to think it will be reflected in asking prices that quickly, and obviously depends a lot on local market/type/price of house.

Edited July 16, 2022 by mh9000

[JoeDavola]

3 minutes ago, mh9000 said:

Personally I haven't really seen much change in house prices yet from sub 2% mortages rates you could get last year, that was also about £150 a month jump on a similar mortgage amount. Maybe slightly less frenzied than last year just 10 viewings instead of 30.

I think there's a good argument that the mental 10% per year raises are over and house prices might stay static for several years (falling in real terms), but the severe lack of supply wont end any time soon IMO.

Might it even be the case that building collapses further as companies can't afford to build houses and make a profit due to the inflation in costs doing so?

Edited July 16, 2022 by JoeDavola

[JoeDavola]

[Democorruptcy]

5 hours ago, JoeDavola said:

I think there's a good argument that the mental 10% per year raises are over and house prices might stay static for several years (falling in real terms), but the severe lack of supply wont end any time soon IMO.

Might it even be the case that building collapses further as companies can't afford to build houses and make a profit due to the inflation in costs doing so?

Re inflation don't forget it's at a moment in time, compared to 12 months before. Oil plays a large part, with a lag from wage rises feeding into prices in response to inflation from an oil spike. Last October crude was $80 but this March it was $120. It's less than $100 now, Next October $100 oil would still be adding pressure to the inflation reading then, by next March it's got to be more than $120 to do that. Whoever get's to be PM could be going to magically reduce inflation, unless oil spikes up again.

[tank]

12 hours ago, JoeDavola said:

I think there's a good argument that the mental 10% per year raises are over and house prices might stay static for several years (falling in real terms), but the severe lack of supply wont end any time soon IMO.

Might it even be the case that building collapses further as companies can't afford to build houses and make a profit due to the inflation in costs doing so?

Best bet is once inflation eases off and an official minor recession occurs in tbe US, the Federal Reserve will QE again and the BoE et al will follow suit. 

Add in net immigration running at three times the already high levels of the Blair era, plus deliberately constrained housing supply, and you have a recipe for further 10%+ rises p.a., especially in regional areas. This is what the Tories mean by 'levelling up' i.e. 'levelling up' property prices and population growth with London and surrounding counties. 

The house you're looking to buy will probably increase in value by 50 to 100% over the next 10 years and this is because of UK economic policy. Pumping property prices is the only way they can realistically grow the hollowed out British economy. 

Think of a fucked up addict and his poison of choice. Credit and population expansion is to the British economy what heroin is to the junkie. However, unlike the addict, there is no detox unit or methadone clinic.

Spy and his ilk have been badly wrong on this issue for 15+ years because they are still pinning their hopes on a rentier Tory government crashing house prices 😀😀, so you'd be well advised to ignore these old TOS HPC bears and get yourself a stake now before you're 40.

Edited July 17, 2022 by tank

[Frank Hovis]

6 hours ago, tank said:

Best bet is once inflation eases off and an official minor recession occurs in tbe US, the Federal Reserve will QE again and the BoE et al will follow suit. 

Add in net immigration running at three times the already high levels of the Blair era, plus deliberately constrained housing supply, and you have a recipe for further 10%+ rises p.a., especially in regional areas. This is what the Tories mean by 'levelling up' i.e. 'levelling up' property prices and population growth with London and surrounding counties. 

The house you're looking to buy will probably increase in value by 50 to 100% over the next 10 years and this is because of UK economic policy. Pumping property prices is the only way they can realistically grow the hollowed out British economy. 

Think of a fucked up addict and his poison of choice. Credit and population expansion is to the British economy what heroin is to the junkie. However, unlike the addict, there is no detox unit or methadone clinic.

Spy and his ilk have been badly wrong on this issue for 15+ years because they are still pinning their hopes on a rentier Tory government crashing house prices 😀😀, so you'd be well advised to ignore these old TOS HPC bears and get yourself a stake now before you're 40.

 

I would hate this to be right but fear that you might well be.

[Bobthebuilder]

10 hours ago, tank said:

Spy and his ilk have been badly wrong on this issue for 15+ years

I would count myself as a HPCer from 15+ years ago. Some of us read the data that was unfolding before us in the period between 2006 until 2012 and some did not. I piled into shares/ funds during 2008 until 2012, by then the writing was on the wall, so I bought a Victorian London terrace for sub £200k. Banks would lend if you had a large deposit, so I put down 50%, the mistake I made was not buying two with smaller deposits. The problem with many on HPC was they could not stop shouting and refused to see the data, I was banned just after posting I had bought a house, that alone tells you all you need to know about that place from 2013 onwards. "Badly wrong"? I am not sure about that.

10 hours ago, tank said:

Add in net immigration running at three times the already high levels of the Blair era, plus deliberately constrained housing supply, and you have a recipe for further 10%+ rises p.a., especially in regional areas. This is what the Tories mean by 'levelling up' i.e. 'levelling up' property prices and population growth with London and surrounding counties. 

I agree with this, but I see this "leveling up" as the final piece of the current boom. London money going into the shires pushing up prices until there's not much difference price wise between London vs South west, IOW etc. Once prices are much the same across large swathes of the UK, so no one can sell and move to a cheaper area then, that's when it will crash IMO. (who knows how long that's gonna take mind).

[haroldshand]

On 16/07/2022 at 12:40, spygirl said:

Theyll pay ~8% on their mortgage, or 5k on their utilities.

 

Pissing around, keeping rates low is increasing inflation.

The UK economy and prices just doesn't work like the BoE assumes. They are moron.

The relation before - UK has always hadto set rates ~1% higher than the FED, is much stronger now, that the FED basically sets Chinas IR too.

And that ~30 year period, of ever increasing labour and exports, staring when the USSR blew up, followed by China joining WT in 2010, is over.

 

 

I have got a real sneaking suspicion that the FED are going to become far less hawkish on interest rates soon and maybe even not going ahead with the next 0.75% rise, just have a feeling. 

[JoeDavola]

19 hours ago, tank said:

Spy and his ilk have been badly wrong on this issue for 15+ years because they are still pinning their hopes on a rentier Tory government crashing house prices 😀😀, so you'd be well advised to ignore these old TOS HPC bears and get yourself a stake now before you're 40.

I think there is some merit to this, but in this case it would be to find the cheapest house that meets my needs, rather than stretching myself and potentilly crippling myself financially if IR's take a big leap.

It can be a challenge to look at the objective utility value of a house and decide yep thats enough and not let your ego tell you you need something much bigger/fancier/posher.

I don't see further big price increases as I think the market would basically grind to a halt, as it kind of has already as very, very few people would be able to afford at the increased prices, and those who already own would be less likely to move.

There is a real danger that in the pursuit of eternal HPI far beyond wage inflation, the housing market kind of cannabalises itself if that is the right word, and grinds to a complete halt. A market of overpriced shitholes nobody is buying and few can afford but for which the owners refuse to "sell it for less than it's worth".

Edited July 17, 2022 by JoeDavola

[spygirl]

20 hours ago, tank said:

Best bet is once inflation eases off and an official minor recession occurs in tbe US, the Federal Reserve will QE again and the BoE et al will follow suit. 

Add in net immigration running at three times the already high levels of the Blair era, plus deliberately constrained housing supply, and you have a recipe for further 10%+ rises p.a., especially in regional areas. This is what the Tories mean by 'levelling up' i.e. 'levelling up' property prices and population growth with London and surrounding counties. 

The house you're looking to buy will probably increase in value by 50 to 100% over the next 10 years and this is because of UK economic policy. Pumping property prices is the only way they can realistically grow the hollowed out British economy. 

Think of a fucked up addict and his poison of choice. Credit and population expansion is to the British economy what heroin is to the junkie. However, unlike the addict, there is no detox unit or methadone clinic.

Spy and his ilk have been badly wrong on this issue for 15+ years because they are still pinning their hopes on a rentier Tory government crashing house prices 😀😀, so you'd be well advised to ignore these old TOS HPC bears and get yourself a stake now before you're 40.

I've said UK housing isn't sustainable.

It was housing v everything else.

2002-2008 HPI has literally destroyed the UK retail banking sector.

Economy are v dynamic. You can mess with one but, only to find bad things pop up elsewhere,

Sure, you might get the same logo but go in and theres nothing. Billions of capital up in smoke. 100k jobs loss- just wander round tgd old northern bs towns - Halifax, Bingley etc. Main employee destroyed, town economy fucked.

You only have to look at the mortgage sales figures to see the crash in transaction.

A quick HPI would be healthier.

The slowburn bank imploding and collapse of transaction has been grim. It also looks like its reached the end of the road.

Theres limited under 50s with housing equity, so no 2nd or 3rd steppers.

Theres 1000s trapped in htb flats that are worthless.

The economy has stagnated as noone is moving, stuck in towns.

And IR are going to go up, so it'll fall down anyhow.

 

 

Edited July 17, 2022 by spygirl

[tank]

5 hours ago, JoeDavola said:

I think there is some merit to this, but in this case it would be to find the cheapest house that meets my needs, rather than stretching myself and potentilly crippling myself financially if IR's take a big leap.

It can be a challenge to look at the objective utility value of a house and decide yep thats enough and not let your ego tell you you need something much bigger/fancier/posher.

I don't see further big price increases as I think the market would basically grind to a halt, as it kind of has already as very, very few people would be able to afford at the increased prices, and those who already own would be less likely to move.

There is a real danger that in the pursuit of eternal HPI far beyond wage inflation, the housing market kind of cannabalises itself if that is the right word, and grinds to a complete halt. A market of overpriced shitholes nobody is buying and few can afford but for which the owners refuse to "sell it for less than it's worth".

House prices are determined by two things: 1) the rate of credit expansion and 2) demand for shelter via population growth combined with constrained supply.

Credit expansion is the UK economy and has been ever since the Tory deregulation of financial services  and housing sectors during the 1980s. 

If the current Tory abomination can't find a way to further expand credit and house prices, then the whole thing will go tits up in its current form as Spy and others predict. 

However, I look at their super charged immigration policies post COVID and Brexit. It's pretty obvious where the UK is heading over the next decade and they will throw the kitchen sink at house prices again. 

80m+ people by 2030, 40 year+ mortgages, intergenerational mortgages, more props etc etc. The housing market in large regional cities like Belfast will ebb and flow, but the trajectory will be upwards. 

Edited July 18, 2022 by tank

[JoeDavola]

4 hours ago, tank said:

House prices are determined by two things: 1) the rate of credit expansion and 2) demand for shelter via population growth combined with constrained supply.

Credit expansion is the UK economy and has been ever since the Tory deregulation of financial services  and housing sectors during the 1980s. 

If the current Tory abomination can't find a way to further expand credit and house prices, then the whole thing will go tits up in its current form as Spy and others predict. 

However, I look at their super charged immigration policies post COVID and Brexit. It's pretty obvious where the UK is heading over the next decade and they will throw the kitchen sink at house prices again. 

80m+ people by 2030, 40 year+ mortgages, intergenerational mortgages, more props etc etc. The housing market in large regional cities like Belfast will ebb and flow, but the trajectory will be upwards. 

The big problems as an aging single person is you are trying to buy something in a market where two wages and 35 year mortgages are ‘the norm’ these days. Two salaries and 35 years of debt are what your competing with. So if you get to say 45 and your still looking to fund the house purchase mostly via a mortgage, as ridiculous as this sounds you might be too late.

Its awful that it’s come to this but this is where we find ourselves.

Edited July 18, 2022 by JoeDavola

[marceau]

6 hours ago, tank said:

 

However, I look at their super charged immigration policies post COVID and Brexit. It's pretty obvious where the UK is heading over the next decade and they will throw the kitchen sink at house prices again. 

80m+ people by 2030, 40 year+ mortgages, intergenerational mortgages, more props etc etc. The housing market in large regional cities like Belfast will ebb and flow, but the trajectory will be upwards. 

If this is where we are going then prices don't matter. It is ultimately the end for the Uk as a 1st world nation. The transition would be horrific and could last decades. Most would be better off leaving the country to find somewhere less volatile, and at that point who cares about UK prices at all?

Living in a favela is one thing, living in a place that is transitioning into a favela is far, far worse.

[haroldshand]

7 hours ago, tank said:

House prices are determined by two things: 1) the rate of credit expansion and 2) demand for shelter via population growth combined with constrained supply.

Credit expansion is the UK economy and has been ever since the Tory deregulation of financial services  and housing sectors during the 1980s. 

If the current Tory abomination can't find a way to further expand credit and house prices, then the whole thing will go tits up in its current form as Spy and others predict. 

However, I look at their super charged immigration policies post COVID and Brexit. It's pretty obvious where the UK is heading over the next decade and they will throw the kitchen sink at house prices again. 

80m+ people by 2030, 40 year+ mortgages, intergenerational mortgages, more props etc etc. The housing market in large regional cities like Belfast will ebb and flow, but the trajectory will be upwards. 

Yep,some will say it cannot happen and yet we have all witnessed various governments doing just that for 25 years now so why stop now. To allow the property market to crash now would be political suicide and take massive balls and a morality check.

I slightly favour a correction right now but that view  could change by the time I get home tonight it's so tight.

[JoeDavola]

1 hour ago, marceau said:

If this is where we are going then prices don't matter. It is ultimately the end for the Uk as a 1st world nation. The transition would be horrific and could last decades. Most would be better off leaving the country to find somewhere less volatile, and at that point who cares about UK prices at all?

Living in a favela is one thing, living in a place that is transitioning into a favela is far, far worse.

I think it will stumble along for the rest of most of our natural lives, but the trajectory is pretty clear.

I think that's also true for much of the west anyway. Not sure where you go where it's 'better'.

[spygirl]

7 hours ago, tank said:

House prices are determined by two things: 1) the rate of credit expansion and 2) demand for shelter via population growth combined with constrained supply.

Credit expansion is the UK economy and has been ever since the Tory deregulation of financial services  and housing sectors during the 1980s. 

If the current Tory abomination can't find a way to further expand credit and house prices, then the whole thing will go tits up in its current form as Spy and others predict. 

However, I look at their super charged immigration policies post COVID and Brexit. It's pretty obvious where the UK is heading over the next decade and they will throw the kitchen sink at house prices again. 

80m+ people by 2030, 40 year+ mortgages, intergenerational mortgages, more props etc etc. The housing market in large regional cities like Belfast will ebb and flow, but the trajectory will be upwards. 

Credit expansion?

Or mortgage credit expansion?

 

New mortgage debt shows why all the gormless HTB etc schemes came into play - mortgage debt fell off the cliff n2008

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/home-loans