Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time

[JoeDavola]

Frightening when you look at how much a small jump will cost you over the entire term of the mortgage.

1.5% raise costs you an extra 45K over a 25 years for £180K.

But I'd guess to start off with people can just suck this up it just means less money to spend in other parts of the economy.

Edited July 11, 2022 by JoeDavola

[spygirl]

5 hours ago, Boon said:

Probably won't come.

And remember, the markets can stay irrational for longer than you can remain solvent.

I expect more headlines like this:

https://www.express.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/1636366/inheritance-tax-warning-money-planning-grandparents-UK-2022

If BOMAD gets exhausted due to parents having to contribute for deposits, this is the next frontier. The banks must be eyeing them up to see how their wealth can be incorporated to prop things up.

Again most people know this is wrong but because they have benefitted or will suffer otherwise choose to say nothing. Therein lies the problem. 

And IR/finaltion can stay high for longer than you can stay solvent - see 90s crash, Turkey today, Lebanon, etc.

 

[HousePriceMania]

 

[Wight Flight]

A reminder of how much I don't miss Surrey.

£585k for that?

The world is mad.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/124928291?#/?channel=RES_BUY

[King Penda]

Well this is my grans old house it sold in 81 for 28k.I drove past today has I know it sold at auction a few months ago for 217k (wtf) .the guy working on it let me wander around and take pictures .I bet it’s going to cost 150/200k to do it up.it’s not been lived in or touched for about 42years

[One percent]

1 minute ago, King Penda said:

Well this is my grans old house it sold in 81 for 28k.I drove past today has I know it sold at auction a few months ago for 217k (wtf) .the guy working on it let me wander around and take pictures .I bet it’s going to cost 150/200k to do it up.it’s not been lived in or touched for about 42years

You’ve put some weight on there.  

[One percent]

Heard a rumour today.  Bloke walks into an estate agent’s 

how many properties on your books?

about sixty

im thinking of buying the lot. 
 

dunno how true it is but it does seem that people are seeing holiday lets as the next gold mine. 

[mh9000]

On 07/07/2022 at 19:01, Ina said:

Just back from drinks with a big York estate agent.  He said in the last 2 weeks the tide has turned.  It will pop big time.  He’s always been a bull in the past.

Surprising that, I know of a few people from Leeds, Newcastle (and there will be others obviously ) all going mental piling into airbnbs/FHL in York, basically anything within about 2 miles of centre. Someone is on the wrong side of this one and I've no idea who honestly! 

[King Penda]

1 hour ago, One percent said:

You’ve put some weight on there.  

Turns out I went school with him it’s a small world it’s the builder but look how small the building is I doubt there will be much change from 400k

Edited July 13, 2022 by King Penda

[King Penda]

59 minutes ago, One percent said:

Heard a rumour today.  Bloke walks into an estate agent’s 

how many properties on your books?

about sixty

im thinking of buying the lot. 
 

dunno how true it is but it does seem that people are seeing holiday lets as the next gold mine. 

Where’s that at please tell me Whitby 

[One percent]

5 minutes ago, King Penda said:

Where’s that at please tell me Whitby 

Yep

[spygirl]

2 hours ago, One percent said:

Heard a rumour today.  Bloke walks into an estate agent’s 

how many properties on your books?

about sixty

im thinking of buying the lot. 
 

dunno how true it is but it does seem that people are seeing holiday lets as the next gold mine. 

It'll be bollocks.

60 x 250k= 13m.

The number of people with that as cash is zilch.

FHL are some you need to be running away from at the mo.

At best, they offered fkall return.

Going ahead, with higher IRs and higher taxes- several k loss per house.

 

[haroldshand]

1 hour ago, One percent said:

Yep

I heard it's oversea investors from Transylvania 

[haroldshand]

20 minutes ago, spygirl said:

It'll be bollocks.

60 x 250k= 13m.

The number of people with that as cash is zilch.

FHL are some you need to be running away from at the mo.

At best, they offered fkall return.

Going ahead, with higher IRs and higher taxes- several k loss per house.

 

Maybe, but after last weeks bear feast in the media relating to house prices they seem yet again to have picked up their confidence a little going on some of the articles and comments I have read

[One percent]

3 minutes ago, haroldshand said:

I heard it's oversea investors from Transylvania 

Apparently, he already owns all of the headland.  

[leonardratso]

we need a little count dracula emoji, maybe more like the count on seaseme street.

[gibbon]

On 11/07/2022 at 07:50, tank said:

Up 30% since 2020 apparently.

A long way to go before it becomes a crash.

My prediction is a minor correction before more QE and per capita immigration ramped to 2% of population instead of the usual 1%.

There'd be a high percentage of Torygraph readers with BTL property portfolios Harold, just not the ones posting in the comments section. 😀😀

Yup more QE and more immigration. People living in la la land if they think house prices ever coming down. At most we'll see a little blip like we did 5 years after 2008.

People struggling to find anywhere to rent in my city and HPI/rents are insane. All thanks to gimmigrants, home county twats and students.Yet you can still make tons in BTL. I downloaded a BTL spreadsheet, put in the numbers for a 2 bed flat for sale, £200k 5 min walk from the centre. Easily get £1300 p/m rent for it. Shit area but rapidly gentrifying. 8% ROI with a 25% deposit. The living room is large and a slum lord could easily turn it into a bedroom and take that to 12% ROI. Even stress tested 7% interest rates and you'd still be making profit. By the time you've brought it and let it out say 6 months later I reckon rents would have increased by another 10%.

 

 

Edited July 13, 2022 by gibbon

[HousePriceMania]

3 minutes ago, gibbon said:

Yup more QE and more immigration. People living in la la land if they think house prices ever coming down. At most we'll see a little blip like we did 5 years after 2008.

People struggling to find anywhere to rent in my city and HPI/rents are insane. All thanks to gimmigrants, home county twats and students.Yet you can still make tons in BTL. I downloaded a BTL spreadsheet, put in the numbers for a 2 bed flat for sale, £200k 5 min walk from the centre. Easily get £1300 p/m rent for it. Shit area but rapidly gentrifying. 8% ROI with a 25% deposit. The living the room is large and a slum lord could easily turn it into a bedroom and take that to 12% ROI. Even stress tested 7% interest rates and you'd still be making profit. By the time you've brought it and let it out say 6 months later I reckon rents would have increased by another 10%.

 

 

Jesus wept, are clinging onto hope that the tory bankers will save you? 

 

They need a crash now, they'll be hoovering up all those bottom end btls for pennies in the pound now that the banks can survive a proper crash 

 

Squeaky bum time 

[tank]

2 hours ago, gibbon said:

Yup more QE and more immigration. People living in la la land if they think house prices ever coming down. At most we'll see a little blip like we did 5 years after 2008.

People struggling to find anywhere to rent in my city and HPI/rents are insane. All thanks to gimmigrants, home county twats and students.Yet you can still make tons in BTL. I downloaded a BTL spreadsheet, put in the numbers for a 2 bed flat for sale, £200k 5 min walk from the centre. Easily get £1300 p/m rent for it. Shit area but rapidly gentrifying. 8% ROI with a 25% deposit. The living room is large and a slum lord could easily turn it into a bedroom and take that to 12% ROI. Even stress tested 7% interest rates and you'd still be making profit. By the time you've brought it and let it out say 6 months later I reckon rents would have increased by another 10%.

 

 

I look at some of the flats I've owned in places like Lanarkshire and Lancashire - within ten miles of two large regional cities - and I could have easily BTLed them for 8-10% yield. Not as much capital appreciation compared to the cities but a good rental return.

I didn't want the hassle, so I just sold up when I moved on but it's easy to get a solid return from BTL in these regions as long as you don't get greedy and over leverage. The moment you desperately start chasing rent, the quality of tenant drops and you end up with squatters.

This rule doesn't apply to slumlords in the usual areas e.g. Ahmed in Bradford can obviously cram 8/10 half cousins from Karachi into a 2 bed flat/terrace and put them to work via the gig economy and money laundering fronts. The government and home office are more than happy to issue the visas. Over a million in the last year alone.

Edited July 14, 2022 by tank

[spygirl]

8 hours ago, gibbon said:

Yup more QE and more immigration. People living in la la land if they think house prices ever coming down. At most we'll see a little blip like we did 5 years after 2008.

People struggling to find anywhere to rent in my city and HPI/rents are insane. All thanks to gimmigrants, home county twats and students.Yet you can still make tons in BTL. I downloaded a BTL spreadsheet, put in the numbers for a 2 bed flat for sale, £200k 5 min walk from the centre. Easily get £1300 p/m rent for it. Shit area but rapidly gentrifying. 8% ROI with a 25% deposit. The living room is large and a slum lord could easily turn it into a bedroom and take that to 12% ROI. Even stress tested 7% interest rates and you'd still be making profit. By the time you've brought it and let it out say 6 months later I reckon rents would have increased by another 10%.

 

 

Opposite.

Areas with high number if rentals turn into shitholes at a rapid clip.

Majority of RMT is determined by LHA.

30%-50% of that 1300m/m rent will go in tax.

 

 

[spygirl]

6 hours ago, tank said:

I look at some of the flats I've owned in places like Lanarkshire and Lancashire - within ten miles of two large regional cities - and I could have easily BTLed them for 8-10% yield. Not as much capital appreciation compared to the cities but a good rental return.

I didn't want the hassle, so I just sold up when I moved on but it's easy to get a solid return from BTL in these regions as long as you don't get greedy and over leverage. The moment you desperately start chasing rent, the quality of tenant drops and you end up with squatters.

This rule doesn't apply to slumlords in the usual areas e.g. Ahmed in Bradford can obviously cram 8/10 half cousins from Karachi into a 2 bed flat/terrace and put them to work via the gig economy and money laundering fronts. The government and home office are more than happy to issue the visas. Over a million in the last year alone.

Everyone comes up with these sort if yields when looking in the North.l

Then they get huge voids andor tenants that the LHA gave kicked out, who destroy the place.

 

[spygirl]

6 hours ago, tank said:

I look at some of the flats I've owned in places like Lanarkshire and Lancashire - within ten miles of two large regional cities - and I could have easily BTLed them for 8-10% yield. Not as much capital appreciation compared to the cities but a good rental return.

I didn't want the hassle, so I just sold up when I moved on but it's easy to get a solid return from BTL in these regions as long as you don't get greedy and over leverage. The moment you desperately start chasing rent, the quality of tenant drops and you end up with squatters.

This rule doesn't apply to slumlords in the usual areas e.g. Ahmed in Bradford can obviously cram 8/10 half cousins from Karachi into a 2 bed flat/terrace and put them to work via the gig economy and money laundering fronts. The government and home office are more than happy to issue the visas. Over a million in the last year alone.

Nope.

You'll notice the absence of BD n Mirpuri shitholers since minimum earning requirement.

Dont meet the hurdle.

The abduls doing deliveroo end to be Indians as they can manage the low he student Visa hurdle. Most bd n mirpuri fail that, being illiterate grunts.

 

[tank]

1 hour ago, spygirl said:

Nope.

You'll notice the absence of BD n Mirpuri shitholers since minimum earning requirement.

Dont meet the hurdle.

The abduls doing deliveroo end to be Indians as they can manage the low he student Visa hurdle. Most bd n mirpuri fail that, being illiterate grunts.

 

It's well known that Abdul can by pass all that by coming in on a standard six month visitor visa.

The population of the UK may be officially 70m, but there'll be at least another 10+ million here at any given time and most of them overstaying illegals. Less than 1% can be physically rounded up and deported  in any given year, so the numbers keep growing. It all adds to GDP and the Tory government can keep up the pretence of 'skilled visas' and 'English requirements' to placate the diehards.

Once in, Abdul needs to be very unlucky to get deported if he lives in a city like Bradford. Also, it's not hard to forge or use other people's documents, especially when you can claim 50 half cousins in a two mile radius with the same names and physical features. Over 1m visas were issued in the last 12 months - double the previous record -  and Pakistan featured heavily.

Edited July 14, 2022 by tank

[HousePriceMania]

7 hours ago, tank said:

I look at some of the flats I've owned in places like Lanarkshire and Lancashire - within ten miles of two large regional cities - and I could have easily BTLed them for 8-10% yield. Not as much capital appreciation compared to the cities but a good rental return.

I didn't want the hassle, so I just sold up when I moved on but it's easy to get a solid return from BTL in these regions as long as you don't get greedy and over leverage. The moment you desperately start chasing rent, the quality of tenant drops and you end up with squatters.

This rule doesn't apply to slumlords in the usual areas e.g. Ahmed in Bradford can obviously cram 8/10 half cousins from Karachi into a 2 bed flat/terrace and put them to work via the gig economy and money laundering fronts. The government and home office are more than happy to issue the visas. Over a million in the last year alone.

tank

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Posted Saturday at 01:38 (edited)

  On 09/07/2022 at 00:35, Panther said:

 

I'm not a wealthy landowner or rent seeker and have therefore never voted for the Tory cunts. 

 

Not a rent seeker...you're a tanker.

[tank]

5 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

tank

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Posted Saturday at 01:38 (edited)

  On 09/07/2022 at 00:35, Panther said:

 

I'm not a wealthy landowner or rent seeker and have therefore never voted for the Tory cunts. 

 

Not a rent seeker...you're a tanker.

Is that the best you've got?

The mumsnet jibe from a few pages back was much better. 😀😀

Not sure woke Harriet and Karen would like my views on immigration, but I'm sure we'd all agree that house prices are likely to keep going up as the population increases.