Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time

[King Penda]

5 minutes ago, haroldshand said:

If I remember rightly though you correctly said if houses fell then the better one you wanted would be cheaper, lets hope your plan works and get your arse moved to Buxton or somewhere nicer

Buxton no that’s Derbyshire,mind I was born in Ashbourne Derbyshire.fuck.ps the next one will be in stoke however uttoxeter is not out of my aspersional target zone now which is a posative pps I can muster about 122k without borrowing so if I got a morgage for 40k I’d have about a 160k budget

Edited July 6, 2022 by King Penda

[spygirl]

2 minutes ago, One percent said:

This. If anyone remembers black Wednesday, the government was in full-out panic. They had no choice but to raise interest rates to protect the pound. Pound has dropped again today has it not?  The government’s hand will be forced. Probably why sunak bailed yesterday 

Heres Huge Arse, the BoE head economist.

Hes special.

Bank of England’s chief economist signals willingness to step up rate rises Huw Pill says he is ‘in the price stability business’ but warns it is no longer helpful to give guidance on future path of policy

https://www.ft.com/content/00e1a629-c792-4abd-99f0-5ea4c5655a3f

 

The Bank of England would do “whatever is necessary” to contain inflation, but splits on the monetary policy committee (MPC) made it unhelpful to give guidance on the likely pace, scale and timing of interest rate rises, rate-setters at the central bank said on Wednesday.

Huw Pill, the BoE’s chief economist, told an audience at King’s College London he was “in the price stability business” and that the “immediate issue for monetary policymakers is whether the pace of policy tightening now needs to change”. Although Pill voted with the majority for a 0.25 percentage point rate rise in June, he said he would be willing to step up the pace of policy tightening.

 

[haroldshand]

3 minutes ago, One percent said:

Not here though, we are full.  

Are you Buxton?

[haroldshand]

3 minutes ago, King Penda said:

Buxton no that’s Derbyshire,mind I was born in Ashbourne Derbyshire.fuck

It just looked nice all the times I went walking in the Peak District and passed through and I knew Stoke was near the Peak D

Sorry

[One percent]

6 minutes ago, haroldshand said:

Are you Buxton?

Nope. 

[King Penda]

4 minutes ago, haroldshand said:

It just looked nice all the times I went walking in the Peak District and passed through and I knew Stoke was near the Peak D

Sorry

Yes much of the Peak District is in staffordshire,Derbyshire likes to pretend it’s all theirs

[Axeman123]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10988121/Bank-England-necessary-tackle-spiralling-inflation.html

Headline "Bank of England will do 'whatever is necessary' to tackle spiralling inflation, Deputy Governor says as biggest ever rate rise to 1.75 per cent could come next month"

I don't think it is inflation they are worried about, but cable. If all this talk doesn't get the pound back up I think an emergency rise could be next. Imagine what that would do for sentiment on housing...

[spygirl]

22 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10988121/Bank-England-necessary-tackle-spiralling-inflation.html

Headline "Bank of England will do 'whatever is necessary' to tackle spiralling inflation, Deputy Governor says as biggest ever rate rise to 1.75 per cent could come next month"

I don't think it is inflation they are worried about, but cable. If all this talk doesn't get the pound back up I think an emergency rise could be next. Imagine what that would do for sentiment on housing...

Snooze you loose ....

They have a model.

The model does not work.

They are coming round to the fact theyve fucked up. A lot.

It will be very painful, in terms on the dumb leveraged.

IO mortgage esp BTL are fucked.

 

 

[haroldshand]

1 hour ago, Boon said:

I regularly scan mumsnet (thank you for your service in making comments) and MSE for a good unbiased representation of the average person.

One thing that is lacking still as far as I see it, not enough stories like the ones above. At this moment in time someone having to hand the keys back is unheard of - don't think I've read one of that type on there recently (and in any case might not happen because you'd still be liable for shortfall).

Once the bad experience stories start coming out in good numbers I think that would be a very strong tool to turn sentiment.

Unfortunately I do think we are not at that point yet, and the average person will still be very bullish on property. 

 

That is a couple of stages ahead still and that's when the person about to lose their home because of their own debt problems  bawls and blubbers and to the media in many cases even though every problem these people have it's usually down to their own financial fuck ups.

This time I don't think that sob story mentality where everyone who plays the victim got away with it in the past is going work this time, this time I think the banks are going to return to a dose of tough love if you have debt problems.

But we will still get it in places like the Daily Mirror and they won't look any further than "poor couple kicked out of home", for now as is becoming clear peoples debts and missed payments and Bills are building up and they are just holding tight hoping some will save them

[Boon]

The timing is great isn't it?

Johnson gets forced out tonight.

Interest rates go up. House prices fall, BTL fucked

Conservatives get voted out.

He can then say 'wouldn't have happened under my watch', even though complete bollocks people will lap it up.

Returns as PM in 2025 just in time for the great reflation.

 

[haroldshand]

56 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10988121/Bank-England-necessary-tackle-spiralling-inflation.html

Headline "Bank of England will do 'whatever is necessary' to tackle spiralling inflation, Deputy Governor says as biggest ever rate rise to 1.75 per cent could come next month"

I don't think it is inflation they are worried about, but cable. If all this talk doesn't get the pound back up I think an emergency rise could be next. Imagine what that would do for sentiment on housing...

All of a sudden the Pound seems to becoming a concern to the BOE  and I was convinced after all the BOE's threats to drastically raise rates in the last 24 hours the pound would recover slightly today, it actually dropped to $1.18 at one point.

I think the cry wolf tactic Carney constantly used is now causing damage

[spygirl]

1 hour ago, Boon said:

I regularly scan mumsnet (thank you for your service in making comments) and MSE for a good unbiased representation of the average person.

One thing that is lacking still as far as I see it, not enough stories like the ones above. At this moment in time someone having to hand the keys back is unheard of - don't think I've read one of that type on there recently (and in any case might not happen because you'd still be liable for shortfall).

Once the bad experience stories start coming out in good numbers I think that would be a very strong tool to turn sentiment.

Unfortunately I do think we are not at that point yet, and the average person will still be very bullish on property. 

 

115% of people don't understand percentages...

Actually, only about 30% have the mathematical ability to understand APR, percentages and mortgages over a longish (5y+) period of time.

That's why so many endowments were sold in the first modern housing boom.

The other 70% rely on the bank not abuding them, which is why MMR was brought in and why theres several million with IO mortgages about to end.

To quote feckless#1 - You buy a house with a mortgage. An IO is like a repayment mortgage just cheaper. It will buy the house.

Feckless#1 doesn't have a mortgage - or any form of credit. Her equally feckless friend does though. 5 years left. 0 capital paid off.

Apparently, Im not a banker so I don't know what Im talking about.

 

 

 

[spygirl]

36 minutes ago, Boon said:

The timing is great isn't it?

Johnson gets forced out tonight.

Interest rates go up. House prices fall, BTL fucked

Conservatives get voted out.

He can then say 'wouldn't have happened under my watch', even though complete bollocks people will lap it up.

Returns as PM in 2025 just in time for the great reflation.

 

Labour show now sign of bothering No 10 for the next 10y.

Labour have over invested in Bad Bozo.

Bozo goes and theyve no policies or person to blame.

[Axeman123]

22 minutes ago, haroldshand said:

All of a sudden the Pound seems to becoming a concern to the BOE  and I was convinced after all the BOE's threats to drastically raise rates in the last 24 hours the pound would recover slightly today, it actually dropped to $1.18 at one point.

I think the cry wolf tactic Carney constantly used is now causing damage

100%. Everytime they talk about doing it in a month's time (unless an excuse not to pops up in the interim) it just reinforces their unwillingness to just do it now IMO. I also think that attempting to piecemeal emergency hikes 25bps at a timewould have a similar effect. 75bps at 11 tonight, with a comitment to do another 75bps at the next scheduled meeting if needed, without any prior warning would get real results. (daydreaming)

With the pound at the longterm average of around $1.50 prices at the pumps would presumably be 5-10% lower, without reducing the tax take.

Edited July 6, 2022 by Axeman123
missing 5 in 75

[spygirl]

1 hour ago, spygirl said:

Heres Huge Arse, the BoE head economist.

Hes special.

Bank of England’s chief economist signals willingness to step up rate rises Huw Pill says he is ‘in the price stability business’ but warns it is no longer helpful to give guidance on future path of policy

https://www.ft.com/content/00e1a629-c792-4abd-99f0-5ea4c5655a3f

 

The Bank of England would do “whatever is necessary” to contain inflation, but splits on the monetary policy committee (MPC) made it unhelpful to give guidance on the likely pace, scale and timing of interest rate rises, rate-setters at the central bank said on Wednesday.

Huw Pill, the BoE’s chief economist, told an audience at King’s College London he was “in the price stability business” and that the “immediate issue for monetary policymakers is whether the pace of policy tightening now needs to change”. Although Pill voted with the majority for a 0.25 percentage point rate rise in June, he said he would be willing to step up the pace of policy tightening.

 

Huw Pill said he wanted to make plain to the public that the central bank’s single purpose at the moment was to bring down the rate of price growth, in a clear hint that more interest rate rises are on the way.

His comments follow an equally stark warning from Sir Jon Cunliffe, a deputy governor of the Bank, who said its monetary policy committee (MPC) would “do whatever is necessary” to prevent the rocketing cost of living from becoming a lasting inflation problem.

Bank of England warns that economic outlook has ‘deteriorated materially’

Pill said he was watching companies to see how much they were passing on wage rises and higher raw materials and component costs to consumers, pushing up prices further.

Thats from someone who's only worked in the public sector with a DB pension.

Just doesn't work like that now.

People walk from their jobs.

They don't have gold plated  DB pensions like Huge Arse. They push to get more money.

By bringing in loads of useless nin working migrants and encouraged 12m to eit on their arse, the wage spiral is baked in.

They got to get at least 1% of the Fed, to get £ up.

 

[spygirl]

2 hours ago, spygirl said:

Snooze you loose ....

They have a model.

The model does not work.

They are coming round to the fact theyve fucked up. A lot.

It will be very painful, in terms on the dumb leveraged.

IO mortgage esp BTL are fucked.

 

 

CBs do chitchat and compare notes.

Fed officials warn entrenched inflation poses ‘significant risk’

Minutes from June meeting suggest even tighter monetary policy may be required from US central bank

https://www.ft.com/content/8d7d4cca-02d9-4673-8ed4-fdf9e9d47343

This is why Huge Arse is flapping.

 

[haroldshand]

Fascinating day though not pleasant in many ways and was a massive learning curve for me though I was under no illusions that things are getting tougher for many people. But to find out in a few separate  surveys that anywhere between 2/5th and 3/5th of households  are severely struggling financially and cannot remember who posted it but there are  60% with not even £500 saved.

This is all moving so fast now, wonder what is in store for tomorrow 

[The Grey Man]

6 minutes ago, haroldshand said:

Fascinating day though not pleasant in many ways and was a massive learning curve for me though I was under no illusions that things are getting tougher for many people. But to find out in a few separate  surveys that anywhere between 2/5th and 3/5th of households  are severely struggling financially and cannot remember who posted it but there are  60% with not even £500 saved.

This is all moving so fast now, wonder what is in store for tomorrow 

I worry to think how the PR and nudge tanks will go into overdrive on this. I do not trust such tactics an inch.

[Bus Stop Boxer]

Emgcy rate rise must be getting more likely. They're not sitting for another month.

I think.

[HousePriceMania]

32 minutes ago, Bus Stop Boxer said:

Emgcy rate rise must be getting more likely. They're not sitting for another month.

I think.

14 years of watching this shit show and an emergency appointment of an Iranian immigrant with a £100m property empire says a cut is more likely 🤣🤣🤣

 

100 year 120% IO mortgage anyone? 

[spygirl]

6 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

14 years of watching this shit show and an emergency appointment of an Iranian immigrant with a £100m property empire says a cut is more likely 🤣🤣🤣

 

100 year 120% IO mortgage anyone? 

Iraqii, bent. Barge pole.

 

[HousePriceMania]

Halifax Index up 1.8% mom 

[Democorruptcy]

10 hours ago, haroldshand said:

Fascinating day though not pleasant in many ways and was a massive learning curve for me though I was under no illusions that things are getting tougher for many people. But to find out in a few separate  surveys that anywhere between 2/5th and 3/5th of households  are severely struggling financially and cannot remember who posted it but there are  60% with not even £500 saved.

This is all moving so fast now, wonder what is in store for tomorrow 

Almost £1 trillion of savings is sitting in easy access savings, according to the latest bank of England figures,

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/saving/article-10980341/Best-savings-rates-Santander-boosts-rates-big-banks-follow.html

[haroldshand]

34 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Almost £1 trillion of savings is sitting in easy access savings, according to the latest bank of England figures,

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/saving/article-10980341/Best-savings-rates-Santander-boosts-rates-big-banks-follow.html

For a long time now I have always been of the opinion that the top 10% have never been as rich as they are now with bags of cash stuffed away. I am one of them and have various investments, savings stuck away and have planned for what is happening now for years(including a misjudged house sale), I have touched on it with posts on here.

After what I read and heard yesterday about how people are struggling I found myself sleeping very well last night and very lucky.

 

P.S   Off this Topic     Halifax up 1% today, I seriously laughed, who the hell has decided that now is the right time to pay historical highs for a house

[HousePriceMania]

9 minutes ago, haroldshand said:

For a long time now I have always been of the opinion that the top 10% have never been as rich as they are now with bags of cash stuffed away. I am one of them and have various investments, savings stuck away and have planned for what is happening now for years(including a misjudged house sale), I have touched on it with posts on here.

After what I read and heard yesterday about how people are struggling I found myself sleeping very well last night and very lucky.

 

P.S   Off this Topic     Halifax up 1% today, I seriously laughed, who the hell has decided that now is the right time to pay historical highs for a house

People are buying before the mortgage rates go up and they can't afford to pay these prices.  The MSM have pushed this message for a couple of months now.

What we have are top 10% earners in the country thinking that they need to rush to buy bottom 10% housing because they are going to miss out, they dont seem to see the other side of the equation.

I think this is symptomatic of the peak bubble mania.