Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time

[Wight Flight]

4 hours ago, Plan-b said:

Here you go..

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/121399793#/?channel=RES_BUY

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/123512252#/?channel=RES_BUY

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/119572184#/?channel=RES_BUY

When you say down there roughly where are you located, whats the property situation

in your area?

For £350k I would hope to get basic facilities such as a dining room.

[Don Coglione]

9 hours ago, Wight Flight said:

For £350k I would hope to get basic facilities such as a dining room.

I suspect that first one will have gone for a lot more than £350k.

[Chewing Grass]

20 hours ago, Chewing Grass said:

Friday the 1st July, just had a look (3 digit postcode search) and we are up to 198 listings and set to break the 200 mark next week. It must be more than 15 years since I've seen so many listings and most of the new ones are the fully 'love it or list it' blinged up variety that have had a fortune spent on them inline with the TV trends of the last 5 years.

So that's nearly another 5% more in a week.

Crossed the 200 mark, now have a virtually unprecedented  202 properties listed for sale, I literally cannot remember when this many were actually previously listed its such a long time ago.

Next week will be interesting as this one has seen another 6% increase in listed properties with some barely being up for 10 days before disappearing.

Can see another 5%+ increase happening next week.

[Boon]

Sadly I don't detect increases in London (+1 mile, last 24 hours), looked promising a couple of weeks ago but came back down. The number of properties coming on every day is still behind pre-covid volumes.

Maybe there could be an increase in overall listings because many more are going stale and not being removed?

There are some reductions, but it seems that many are happy to (try to ) sell at prices at 6m-1y ago, which was when mortgage rates were c.2% lower, and power bills were lower. I don't know if will be a point which causes the penny to drop for a lot of the market.

I don't think sentiment has been bashed enough among sellers or buyers just yet. Only seems to be the Telegraph being bearish.

 

[Democorruptcy]

15 hours ago, Plan-b said:

Here you go..

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/121399793#/?channel=RES_BUY

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/123512252#/?channel=RES_BUY

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/119572184#/?channel=RES_BUY

When you say down there roughly where are you located, whats the property situation

in your area?

Thanks for the links.

I'm on Anglesey at the moment, prices here are driven by the staycation madness. I'd say +50% since covid started. Though there are recent signs of stuff being reduced and coming back to market.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/124575029#/?channel=RES_BUY

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/78172005#/?channel=RES_BUY

[Option5]

23 minutes ago, Boon said:

There are some reductions, but it seems that many are happy to (try to ) sell at prices at 6m-1y ago, which was when mortgage rates were c.2% lower, and power bills were lower. I don't know if will be a point which causes the penny to drop for a lot of the market.

It's not always the price that's the driving force, if people can't get mortgages at all or sentiment is bad the price is somewhat irrelevant.

I had a flat just outside Manchester for sale in the mid 80s. Kept reducing the price as did everyone else but no interest. Eventually, as I didn't need to sell it the estate agent suggested I put the price back to the original asking price and just wait.

I lent it out to some friends as they would cover the bills and forgot about it.

Three years later the market turned and I got more than the asking price as a bidding war started on just about everything that was for sale.

[Boon]

A few people I know already did that - ie refinanced as BTL and left.

But that seems dependent on interest rates. I would guess that ship has sailed for a lot of people nowadays if you have leverage.

Example above was a real life example of a pickle.... that £500k flat was bought a few years ago, something like £200k equity. Getting out today means a £75-100k loss, I guess that is compounded by the fact that the projected next step up (flat to house) has not fallen at all.

Can they rent and forget about it? That seems doubtful nowadays as it did in the past. If they were to remortgage onto a BTL (3%, 30yr) today I would estimate they could break even. But that is before tax which is gonna be at higher rate. 

If interest rates go higher or it slips onto SVR then the amount to charge to break even is more than the market can bear.

Waiting it out seems to be the only option.... however getting more than £500k will be very dependent on interest rates going back to 0.5% and/or lending becoming looser on new build flats, because banks are more cautious on these things now. That might take years. If service charges increase faster than inflation then also that is a further drag.

[Plan-b]

8 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

Thanks for the links.

I'm on Anglesey at the moment, prices here are driven by the staycation madness. I'd say +50% since covid started. Though there are recent signs of stuff being reduced and coming back to market.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/124575029#/?channel=RES_BUY

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/78172005#/?channel=RES_BUY

FFS shocking enough that those were around 400k 2½ years ago 

[Phil]

1 hour ago, Plan-b said:

FFS shocking enough that those were around 400k 2½ years ago 

Ffs.

[sancho panza]

From @Lightscribe on the main thread

 

Ignore the noise, keep an eye on what’s happening on the shop floor.

https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/property/4577781-if-you-are-a-landlord-are-you-thinking-of-selling-up

https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/property/4573075-london-flat-market

[JoeDavola]

On 30/06/2022 at 09:31, Sugarlips said:

Heat being turned up down under...CBA is the biggest bank, the others will follow

Ouch. Surely the UK has to follow in their footsteps eventually?

I've been watching videos from American commenters on YT and they'res saying the US housing market is on the downturn but one interesting point is that apparently US homebuyers were able to get 30 year fixes on their mortgages which you'd think puts them at lower risk if anything than most folk in the UK with their 2 year fixes?

[tank]

On 02/07/2022 at 19:04, Boon said:

I don't think sentiment has been bashed enough among sellers or buyers just yet. Only seems to be the Telegraph being bearish.

The Torygraph isn't bearish.

It's readers are blue rinse land owners and landlords who want to see HPI to the moon forever. 

If the party rag is hysterically handwringing about a housing market crash, you can guarantee that the Tory government will be pulling out all the stops to make sure it doesn't happen. 

Edited July 4, 2022 by tank

[tank]

6 hours ago, JoeDavola said:

Ouch. Surely the UK has to follow in their footsteps eventually?

I've been watching videos from American commenters on YT and they'res saying the US housing market is on the downturn but one interesting point is that apparently US homebuyers were able to get 30 year fixes on their mortgages which you'd think puts them at lower risk if anything than most folk in the UK with their 2 year fixes?

This is why we won't be following them.

Mortgage holders in the UK are far more sensitive to rate rises due to the short, introductory fixes designed to get people in and pump house prices to the moon.  

It is very common to get 25 and 30 year fixes in the US. This is not a new thing. If there is a housing crash over there, it'll be down to a recession flushing out all the fresh sub prime lending. Employment in the US is generally more insecure and there are fewer social safety nets. People can be laid off quickly and easily. If you fall over in the US, you fall hard and the government won't have your back. 

Edited July 4, 2022 by tank

[HousePriceMania]

 

 

 

 

As a lot of people have alluded to here and on TOS, the number of available listings is surging.

 

 

it's still low but it's direction has reverse significantly.

If I extrapolate it I think we could be back around 400,000 listings by the end of the year with mortgage rates going up, inflation ripping people a new one, possible massive recession, strikes, unafordable fuel etc etc etc.

Welcome to the house price crash

[HousePriceMania]

5 hours ago, tank said:

This is why we won't be following them.

Mortgage holders in the UK are far more sensitive to rate rises due to the short FUCKING INSANE PRICES, introductory fixes designed to get people in and pump house prices to the moon.  

 

FTFY

1% Rise on a 500,000 mortgages is 5000

5% rise in a 100,000 mortgage is 5000

How much would you rather have paid for your house ?

[HousePriceMania]

On 01/07/2022 at 12:52, Chewing Grass said:

Friday the 1st July, just had a look (3 digit postcode search) and we are up to 198 listings and set to break the 200 mark next week. It must be more than 15 years since I've seen so many listings and most of the new ones are the fully 'love it or list it' blinged up variety that have had a fortune spent on them inline with the TV trends of the last 5 years.

So that's nearly another 5% more in a week.

In case you missed it @Chewing Grass you are not imagining it....there has been as surge of available listings.



On an small area people might not be seeing a surge but the market as a whole is showing a steep rise.

[spunko]

Jesus Christ that lawn on the first one.

You can practically see the builders rubble poking out.

[tank]

1 hour ago, HousePriceMania said:

FTFY

1% Rise on a 500,000 mortgages is 5000

5% rise in a 100,000 mortgage is 5000

How much would you rather have paid for your house ?

How do you think those insane prices came to pass?

By magic?

I think sticking interest rates to 0% had something to do with it. 

Edited July 4, 2022 by tank

[Noallegiance]

2 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

In case you missed it @Chewing Grass you are not imagining it....there has been as surge of available listings.



On an small area people might not be seeing a surge but the market as a whole is showing a steep rise.

Definite uptick in Rightmove email alerts for my search area over the last few months.

[HousePriceMania]

9 hours ago, tank said:

How do you think those insane prices came to pass?

By magic?

I think sticking interest rates to 0% had something to do with it. 

You think we don't all know that? 

 

Away back to mumsnet 

[spygirl]

On 30/06/2022 at 09:31, Sugarlips said:

Heat being turned up down under...CBA is the biggest bank, the others will follow

 

 

 

Ouch again.

Must have had a heads up of what's coming.

3 months in a row.

[spygirl]

On 03/07/2022 at 21:40, sancho panza said:

From @Lightscribe on the main thread

 

Ignore the noise, keep an eye on what’s happening on the shop floor.

https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/property/4577781-if-you-are-a-landlord-are-you-thinking-of-selling-up

https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/property/4573075-london-flat-market

No garden alas. Has a boxy glassy balcony that looks lovely... But you cant open the door outwards onto the balcony if it has any furniture on it like a table, a chair, even a big pot plant - hopeless design. Looks great, but utterly useless.

My experience is that service charges and the threats of annual rises by chamonix or firstport are killing flat sales. In 2012 my total charges were £1915. Today it is a shade under £8000, with a letter on my desk now talking about the post grenfell 'hard insurance market' which will add at least another £1200 on 1 january 2023... So £9000 charges next year.... £750/mo before mortgage, ctax, bills.

It isnt worth it. I know it, buyers know it. Give first port a chance and itll be 10,000 per annum in the blink of an eye.

DONT BUY A FLAT, ANY FLAT

 

[Wight Flight]

First decent drop  have seen in a long while.

17% off. It's a good start.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/85419147#/?channel=RES_BUY

Edited July 5, 2022 by Wight Flight

[haroldshand]

On 04/07/2022 at 04:16, tank said:

The Torygraph isn't bearish.

It's readers are blue rinse land owners and landlords who want to see HPI to the moon forever. 

If the party rag is hysterically handwringing about a housing market crash, you can guarantee that the Tory government will be pulling out all the stops to make sure it doesn't happen. 

I am a fan of the DT with reservations, the contrast between the BBC and the DT is huge and for me it's the best out there,  having a desk morning today and have been looking through it and enjoying the travel and best walks articles today.

And yes the property section is usually full of ramping and pro landlord but you only have to read the comments to realise there are plenty of readers pissed of with the old pro property BS and now there are plenty of crash and burn articles. That Mellisa journalist is getting a lot of stick as well just lately.

[haroldshand]

On 04/07/2022 at 11:49, tank said:

How do you think those insane prices came to pass?

By magic?

I think sticking interest rates to 0% had something to do with it. 

I am watching the £Pound closely at the moment more than anything else, I can see a run on it before Christmas and that's when everything will go into meltdown and what we have seen so far will be nothing. If the Dollar matches the Pound then it's 5% minimum for interest rates and the BOE will have no say in it.